The Watchlist Tune o' the Week
This is not my song of the year - that would be this or maybe this? - but is probably the one I have played the most in the last month. Close enough to a song of the week. A thing to look for later this week: my yearly Conference Play Primer, covering all 31 leagues and the NCAA Tournament picture. Fun lies ahead!
- A Games are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ Game every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
- B Games are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
- C Games are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through.
All lines and game information are via KenPom unless noted. All lines for women's games are via Bart Torvik. Folks, we are so close to a normal, standard conference play week that I can taste it.
Monday, December 29
A Game
NCAAW: #6 Michigan (-7.5) at #24 Oregon, 9 PM ET, FS1. On one hand, the Big Ten's relentless pursuit of a worldwide conference has led them to offer membership to the University of Adelaide, which means that Rutgers will take up residency in South Australia in the 2030-31 season. On the other, Michigan/Oregon and USC/Nebraska on New Year's Eve Eve Eve.
It's early, but through 11 games no one has managed to come close to a point per possession against Michigan's defense, which presses after made baskets and is wildly aggressive on the perimeter. The traps generate a lot of catch-and-shoot jumpers, but Michigan does guard these quite well. Oregon's offense has been quite good at getting to the rim in transition but is more attack-and-kick based in half-court. If this is the first time all year an opponent shoots better than 33% from deep against Michigan, I like the Ducks' odds. If not: pain.
B Games
NCAAW: #14 USC at #9 Nebraska (-3.5), 3 PM ET, BTN+?!?!? This is knocked down an entire tier because it's on a service that, I promise, is almost as bad as Flo Sports. Let this be a warning to all conferences: STOP PUTTING YOUR GAMES ON SERVICES FEW PEOPLE IN AMERICA USE. You have all that NBC money in the newest Big Ten TV contract. Put this on Peacock, which has other uses.
Anyway! This is almost as good as Michigan/Oregon, but this USC team simply cannot score against real competition. In five attempts against top-50 competition, they've peaked at 69 points (in a 76 possession game) and 0.906 PPP. They're shooting 43% from two and 23% from three while getting annihilated on the boards. So: why and how do they have a chance? Well, their defense is 4-for-5 in holding these teams to 0.94 PPP or worse, and USC's frontcourt defense is elite, which may spell problems for a Nebraska offense at its best playing through the frontcourt.
NCAAW: #16 Minnesota (-6.5) at #57 Indiana, 6 PM ET, BTN+. Same logic as above, though obviously this is already a tier below the previous two. Indiana is 2-2 against top-100 teams and Minnesota 2-3, but the manner in which they've got there is pretty telling. Indiana has allowed 1.04 PPP or worse to all four of those teams, and their one road win against a top-100 squad came because Florida State shot 2-14 from three. I don't love what they've built.
#76 Yale at #17 Alabama (-13), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. As mentioned on the STATS by Will and Jim pod this week, I hope Yale enjoyed their 19-day rest appropriately and come out firing. I have Yale with an 11-day rest advantage here, which is so fascinating and unusual I cannot wait to see what it looks like. Per TeamRankings, this appears to be the first time a team has had a 19+ day break and is playing a ranked opponent since January 11, 2022, when Stanford (coming off of a 19-day COVID break) played host to #5 USC. For a game against a ranked team not impacted by COVID: December 27, 2001, when William & Mary played at #8 Maryland after a 25 DAY BREAK from basketball. History!
#89 Illinois State (-1) at #145 Drake, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Early, impactful game for MVC purposes. Illinois State has quietly gone 9-1 (albeit with one win over a top-150 opponent) since a 1-2 start and is now 2-0 in the MVC.
C Games
#64 McNeese at #1 Michigan (-21), 7 PM ET, BTN+. In the Will Wade and After Era for McNeese, the Cowboys are a perfect 3-0 ATS as a double-digit dog and their worst result is an 8-point road loss at future 2 seed Alabama last year. This is the unstoppable force versus the immovable object.
#119 Southern Illinois at #96 Murray State (-6), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. I have Murray as the fifth-droppiest drop coverage in America this year using our old pal the Ball Screen Coverage Spectrum, which could go one of two ways very violently for SIU: either the team that shoots 46% on midrange jumpers shows up, or the team that shoots 27.5% from 3 and attempts the fewest deep balls in America makes this a bad math problem.
#138 Oakland at #148 Wright State (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. I hate this matchup for Oakland, as the Raiders have a 96th-percentile zone offense and won their home game with Oakland last year despite a horrendous exhibition of rebounding and jumper efficiency.
#132 Kent State at #5 Purdue (-24), 7 PM ET, BTN+. It's a just-in-case game, though I'll note that in 24 games as a 20+ point favorite post-COVID, Purdue has yet to win by less than 10 and their median MOV is +27.
#127 Cal Baptist at #84 Utah Valley (-9), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. #2 at #1 in the WAC is the first of three editions of this 'rivalry' thanks to Grand Canyon's early departure for the MWC. Unfortunately for CBU, they draw the short stick of getting UVU on the road twice. I advise they win one of the two.
Rams at Falcons, 8:15 PM ET, ESPN. This game is more or less meaningless, save for a weird deal where the Falcons can help the Panthers win the NFC South, but I have to admit I'm going to miss Monday Night Football badly in the offseason. It's just a nice routine.
Tuesday, December 30
A Game
#14 Louisville (-6) at #57 California, 9 PM ET, ACC Network. Louisville begins ACC play with a Westward swing - their lone one of the year - and in general has as hard a start to the ACC season as I'd deem possible. Like, yes, they don't play UNC or Virginia or NCSU yet...but they do have this, and their first game back in Louisville is at home against Duke, whose two preceding ACC games will be against two of the league's three worst teams.
The three P5s to best hold down the nasty Louisville offense all have three things in common: they limit transition play well, they all rank among the nation's top 50 in opponent rim attempt rate, and they force a lot of jumpers off the dribble. We'll see how tricky the road trip actually is, because on paper, Cal only does the first one and their interior defense against better competition is...uh, lacking.
B Games
Music City Bowl, 5:30 PM ET, ESPN. Unfortunately, the scourge of college football has not let us be just yet. This is the rare bowl game (Illinois/Tennessee) where I am pretty certain both starting QBs are playing. It's also color-on-color, and both defenses are bad. There are worse ways to live than watching this. Despite applying my 2x penalty for "is pointless," this still serves as B-tier material.
#51 Butler at #44 Creighton (-4), 9 PM ET, FS1. No game this week has higher bi-directional stakes to it than this one, per Torvik. Butler would zoom to 72% to make the Tournament with a win, while Creighton would firmly get off the mat to 33%. With a loss: 53% for Butler and a horrid 6% for Creighton. Therefore, this is the Official Anxiety Game of the Week and the final one for the 2025 calendar year.
#69 New Mexico at #53 Boise State (-6), 11 PM ET, FS1. This is second-place in the Anxiety Bowl, though as usual with all things Mountain West I don't think these teams seem to feel real anxiety until March. Unflappable league.
New Mexico simply looks exceptionally-coached and has ruined some of their better foes with pick-and-pops, which I bring up because Boise has been fantastic at eliminating these with drop coverage. Drop is not always advisable, though, especially against a UNM team littered with hot-and-cold shooters who can pop off a 49% 3PT performance (or a 13% one) seemingly any day. To me this is a classic game where UNM feels like the more accurate 'side', but Home Boise is an animal, as we've come to know.
C Games
NCAAW: #80 Rice at #82 South Florida (-2.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. I wish this was a day game, but we can't always get what we want, right? I'm pretty intrigued by this. USF's frontcourt defense isn't at the standard I expect from them, which portends good things for a Rice team that can only attack through interior play right now...but Rice's defense being highly susceptible to drives from the perimeter does not portend well against a USF team that can basically only do that.
#113 Miami (OH) at #107 Bowling Green (-4), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Miami Not That Miami: STILL UNDEFEATED. Read it and weep, people. This may be their stiffest test yet against a BGSU team tremendous at getting downhill against a Miami side with just-okay rim protection. Also, Bowling Green has a legitimate top-40 defense in the sport...but a team that allows a 72nd-percentile catch-and-shoot rate against Miami, a 99th-percentile shooting offense, could be deadly.
#90 Pittsburgh at #36 Miami (FL) (-10), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. Miami in four games against top-150 teams: 47% from 2 and a negative turnover margin...but also, 43% allowed from 2 and what legitimately looks like one of the 20-25 best defenses in the nation. You can work with that.
#66 Notre Dame at #81 Stanford (-2), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Can't really figure out if I do or don't believe in Stanford just yet, though I'd like to note they're very good at building up extra possessions. Could they be this year's ACC Roulette Team that finishes ~77th at KenPom but goes 10-8 in league play? 21-10, 10-8 ACC Stanford is an intriguing proposition that Eamonn Brennan would be pained by.
#85 Nevada at #73 Colorado State (-4), 9 PM ET, Mountain West Network. This is on if you need it. It's the Regression Bowl: Nevada, shooting nearly 5% better than it should from three per Synergy, against Colorado State, still +10% 3PT% on the season and now +16% FT%. These are items that won't last.
Alamo Bowl, 9 PM ET, ESPN. I put another bowl game on here, so here's this one. USC/TCU. USC has something in the neighborhood of 10 starters sitting this game out. TCU has six or so. Bowl season! Who wouldn't want this to keep going?
Wednesday, December 31 (New Year's Eve)
A Games
ReliaQuest Bowl, 12 PM ET, ESPN. This is a very rare thing: a bowl game in 2025 where it appears both sides are mostly at full strength. Iowa has a couple of starters opting out but is otherwise intact; Vanderbilt seems to be as full strength as humanly possible. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I'm...actually looking forward to this game?
NCAAW: #31 Baylor at #36 Oklahoma State (-0.5), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Here's your basketball game of the day, which I'm afraid may be buried against a lot of noise. It's unfortunate because this is a very good game with real stakes to it for both sides. Baylor's season-opening win over Duke is doing major heavy lifting for their resume, which is otherwise just okay, while Oklahoma State would be out of the Tournament field as of right now because they own one (1) win over a top-100 team (Miami by three). It's not the Big 12 opener for either, but it's a major proving ground for an excellent half-court Baylor defense and an Oklahoma State offense that has shredded bad competition but has dried up somewhat against top-100 teams.
College Football Playoff quarterfinal: Miami (FL) vs. Ohio State, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN. It's a shame this isn't exactly one hour later. They'll never replicate the pure surge of peace I felt in my soul watching that kick sail wide left as it became 2023. Anyway, this could either be awesome or a slow death march. I lean the latter, but it's here in the event it's the former.
B Games
#59 Wake Forest at #27 NC State (-10), 12 PM ET, ESPN2. We'll cut to the chase here: Wake needs wins. NC State needs wins. Both need them like they need air. The actual spread of this game is TBD, but let's assume it's north of seven points. Forbes as a dog of 7+ on the road at Wake: 1-18 straight-up (the lone win four years ago at Virginia Tech) and seven non-covers in a row. Better change those trends, my friend.
#23 Virginia (-4) at #68 Virginia Tech, 2 PM ET, ACC Network. Rivalry! On New Year's Eve! And they say bowl season no longer delivers. (It doesn't.) This is 11-1 at 11-2, which makes for a hell of an opener to ACC play. It seems that a lot of people have forgotten about VT after their electric early-season win over Providence, and metrics don't like 'em much, but they do own wins over three top-100 teams (Providence, Colorado State, George Mason) and have generally looked the part of 'frisky' if not great. A concern for me here would be that Tech has given up 1.03 PPP or worse defensively to all five top-100 opponents they've played, and the 1.03 was because Colorado State (44% from 3) shot 4-19 from deep. It's a very bad defense.
Citrus Bowl, 3 PM ET, ABC. This is on here simply because I genuinely have no idea what to expect from it. Michigan is obviously in disarray but has hired the least disarray-style head coach of the last 20 years. However, it seems like they only have a couple of confirmed opt-outs and the players seem to adore the interim head coach. Texas is down seven (!) defensive starters, which should imply how motivated they are to play this game. I guess I think it's going to be terrible but also fascinating in what way it's terrible.
NCAAW: #43 Arizona State at #48 Utah (-1.5), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Arizona State has built up an excellent resume and feels safe-ish for March, but Utah needs wins and needs them now. Can their malfunctioning offense crack an Arizona State defense that's been very good at shutting off the proverbial water on the perimeter and forcing endless turnovers?
NCAAW: #7 TCU (-10.5) at #47 BYU, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. The upside of NIL is a random power emerging in a sport, which is TCU for women's basketball. (Texas Tech for football, BYU for men's basketball. Big 12 supremacy.) I think TCU is a bit overrated at the moment thanks to a +15% 3PT% delta, but by the same token, they're a hilarious +26% from two. If BYU can attack in transition the way they have against lesser competition, this is a live upset bid.
C Games
#164 Mercer at #154 Furman (-3), 12 PM ET, ESPN+. This is an intriguing test of a theory I have: Furman has become underrated on a regional scale thanks to their 1-3 start (8-1 since), while Mercer has become a little overrated as a team that plays a very exciting style but can get brutalized in the shot volume department. For me, it's an ETSU/Furman battle in the SoCon at year's end.
NCAAW: #52 Georgetown at#45 Seton Hall (-5), 1 PM ET, ESPN+. This is an eventual battle for third in the Big East, at least in theory...but Georgetown has started 0-2 in conference play and really, really cannot afford 0-3.
Sun Bowl, 2 PM ET, CBS. I have no idea who's in this game - I will guess that it's Big Ten and Big 12? - but the Sun Bowl is such a beautiful venue in such a unique setting that I tune in literally every year at least for a few plays. Sue me. Or don't, I can't afford it right now. Have you seen the prices of these gifts?
#35 Clemson (-2) at #78 Syracuse, 2 PM ET, ESPN2. Syracuse could own a very interesting, unusual resume with a win here: 2-3 against Quadrants 1 & 2, 0-1 against Quadrant 3.
#83 George Washington at #99 Richmond (-1), 4 PM ET, ESPN+. There are three teams above water in the A10 in Wins Above Bubble at the moment, which means Three Bid Atlantic 10 is still a possibility. Unfortunately, none of those three are playing in this game. Also, it pains me to say this, but George Washington's defense is just so, so bad against any opponent of decency. Every game is first to 90.
#94 Wichita State at #106 UAB (-2), 4 PM ET, ESPNU. The American is back to one-bid league status, which does mean that one of these two teams can absolutely win it. They could also just as easily go 9-9 in league play and be a footnote.
NCAAW: #38 Richmond (-1.5) at #60 Rhode Island, 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Thankfully, this game is on TV, which didn't seem 100% likely a week or two ago. Richmond's offense absolutely has The Juice this year and offers some of the best inside-out play you'll find in all of college basketball this year. Rhode Island is no slouch, either, with one of the best transition-denying defenses in WBB.
#20 St. John's (-9) at #104 Georgetown, 8 PM ET, FS1. It's certainly for someone. I've remained steadfast in my opinion that 20th is about right for St. John's from July to now, but hilariously they are now undervalued in the national media. I'll finally be worried that I'm suddenly too high on them if they lose here.
Thursday, January 1 (New Year's Day)
The A+ Game of the Week
NCAAW: #9 Nebraska at #10 Iowa (-3), 2 PM ET, BTN. I have different tiers of 'bangers' in my head, and this is the definition of the Super Mega Banger. Two elite offenses going at it, two leaky defenses that can do a couple things well but not everything at the same time, two likely All-Americans (Ava Helden for Iowa, Britt Prince for Nebraska) going at it. This is the goods!
This is a great matchup of two different philosophies for me. As has been the case for 25 years, Iowa wants to attack through the post, but Nebraska has been one of the better teams out there at post denial and forces a lot of long, slow possessions that either end in kickout threes or pull-up twos. Iowa, meanwhile, is phenomenal at rim denial and forces tons of kickout threes...which is potentially dangerous against a top-five shooting offense in Nebraska, but one that requires rim pressure and interior gravity to make its case. I can't wait for this. Football?
A Games
College Football Playoff quarterfinal: Orange Bowl, 12 PM ET, ESPN. This is the best of the playoff games for me, but has the misfortune of being played in Miami at 12 PM ET. Why would the Orange Bowl ever be played at 12 PM ET? It's stupid. Anyway, I think Oregon/Texas Tech could be the best college football game of the season if it all goes well.
College Football Playoff quarterfinal: Rose Bowl, 4 PM ET, ESPN. This is the best-looking game by far. Every year there's a grouping of SEC fans who whimper and moan about the unshakeable status of the Rose Bowl. What I would say to them is this: you are dumb and you should feel dumb. I went in 2007 for Michigan/USC and I still think about it every single season despite the fact my dad's team (Michigan) got stomped. It is that beautiful of a place.
NCAAW: #6 Michigan (-8.5) at #30 Washington, 6 PM ET, BTN. Michigan's defense has been near-impenetrable this year, as explored earlier, but I haven't covered enough their truly unbelievable shot volume suppression. Right now, the Wolverines are forcing turnovers on 34% of possessions and recovering 72% of missed shots by their opponents. This means that, in the average game, Michigan is running up a shot attempt equivalent (FGA + .475xFTA) advantage of nearly 18 extra attempts a game. Even against top-100 teams across five games, this still comes out to around 8-9 extra attempts per game.
They strike me as a team that's very unlikely to lose as a serious favorite and should go quite deep in the Tournament.
NCAAW: #8 Kentucky at #5 LSU (-10.5), 8 PM ET, SECN+. The actual leader nationally, in terms of total combined rebound/turnover differential, is LSU at an astonishing +464 over 13 games, or +35.6 a game. They're +11.6 in turnover margin per game and +24 on the boards. They've only played two games against top-100 competition, so I think we still don't know much...but until then, enjoy brutality.
B Games
NCAAW: #32 Stanford at #18 NC State (-7), 2 PM ET, ACC Network. I enjoy watching NC State because they play out of time a bit. They attempt 35% of their shots from the midrange, hit 42% of them, barely get to the line at all, don't attempt many threes, and can only play through the post with some occasional pull-up jumpers. And yet: top-25 offense. I admire it.
NCAAW: #17 Maryland (-5.5) at #39 Illinois, 4 PM ET, BTN. Maryland has flown through a challenging non-conference slate that has them on pace to end up a 2 or 3 seed, but they haven't run up the type of scoring margin you'd like to see from your 2 or 3 seeds. If that can change here, it would help them out immensely in chasing a potential top-line bid.
NCAAW: #37 Georgia at #28 Ole Miss (-6.5), 7:30 PM ET, SECN+. This is, by a mile, the most astonishing sports symmetry I could imagine. Georgia/Ole Miss, in women's basketball, 30 minutes before Georgia/Ole Miss in football. I am fascinated to see the crowd in person for this one. It's a shame, because this is a good game, just up against the impossible.
College Football Playoff quarterfinal: Sugar Bowl, 8 PM ET, ESPN. I guess. I hate rematches, and there's no way to my eyes that Ole Miss/Georgia II would be as funny as the first version was. This has strong odds of Ole Miss running out of gas and me running to bed.
C Games
#138 Oakland at #161 Youngstown State (-1), 1 PM ET, ESPN+. Not much of a men's basketball day, but this is entertaining. Oakland Opponents Versus a Zone Check: Youngstown State is in the 38th-percentile of zone offense efficiency after 41st-percentile last year but swept the Grizz last season thanks to Oakland going 9-41 from deep across the two matchups.
NCAAW: #29 Alabama at #2 South Carolina (-19.5), 2 PM ET, SECN+. Against top-100 competition, South Carolina's defense has been astonishingly good, holding their competition to a 38.1% eFG% while averaging - yes, averaging - just over 10 free throw attempts allowed per game. They also force the sixth-highest midrange attempt rate. Easy points are nigh-impossible.
#127 Cal Baptist at #163 UT Arlington (-1), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. Cal Baptist needs to fire some shots in their attempt to make the NCAA Tournament and win the WAC, and this is a great opportunity. UTA is due more defensive 3PT% regression than anyone in the country (24.2% 3PT% allowed, expected hit rate of 33%), while CalBap should be able to run up a shot attempt advantage of five or six in this game.
#117 Bradley at #62 Belmont (-8), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. 2-0 at 2-0 in the MVC. I'd also argue this is a game between the actual two best players in the league: Jaquan Johnson of Bradley and Nic McClain of Belmont. By the way, Bradley better load up on NIL to keep Johnson. I know nothing, but if you're the best player in the MVC as a sophomore you're unfortunately not long for the league. European soccer transfer system soon.
NCAAW: #11 Oklahoma (-12) at #62 Texas A&M, 8 PM ET, SECN+. TAMU has done a relatively rare thing for modern college basketball: a nine-game non-conference slate. I'm not sure if it was intentional or they couldn't find opponents, but this will be a rare post-COVID thing to see a team who has played three basketball games after November 25.
#84 Utah Valley (-6) at #185 Tarleton State, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. The usual with Tarleton: are their opponents good against a press? Utah Valley has barely faced one this year (71 total possessions), but they've done well against it so far.
Friday, January 2
A Game
#13 Michigan State at #22 Nebraska (-1), 9 PM ET, Peacock. This is the battle of the famed Onion headline from early 2003 for me: things will change versus no they won't. In games against top-100 teams, both of these sides have run up seriously high 3PT% gaps - MSU +12.9%, Nebraska +8.5% - that I cannot imagine holding and haven't been replicated against lesser competition (MSU -2.1%, Nebraska +1.4%). What happens when you have a bomb waiting to explode play a bomb waiting to explode?
In the era of Good Nebraska (roughly the 2022-23 season to now), MSU has gone 3-1 with the lone loss being a December 2023 one where Nebraska's rim denial scheme forced MSU into their fourth-highest midrange attempt rate of the year. Road Dog Izzo is a pretty real thing in the sense they're 5-1-2 ATS in his last eight attempts in this setup, but my fear on the MSU side would be getting mathballed out of a win where they should be the better team on the boards by some distance.
B Games
#38 USC at #1 Michigan (-18), 7 PM ET, Peacock. It's very rare, but Muss is 6-3 ATS in his career as a double-digit dog. Then again, he's sub-.500 as an underdog overall. Who knows. One thing I'll note here: Michigan against top-50 teams has held opponents to 39.7% at the rim, a number so insanely low that I don't believe it's capable of lasting. Still obviously elite, but 39.7% would be 1960s-level numbers to allow. Their number against sub-50s teams is 50.6%, which would still be extremely good.
#14 Louisville (-8) at #81 Stanford, 8 PM ET, ACC Network. This Westward swing is a good chance for Louisville to prove they don't have a Yum Center Problem™. In their four games away from home, even adjusted for shooting luck and schedule, Louisville has been over 13 points worse per 100 possessions, goes from having a +24% 2PT% advantage to +6%, and loses both the rebounding and turnover battles. If this happens against either of Cal or Stanford - or both - the Cards indeed have a severe away-from-home issue.
C Games
#133 New Mexico State (-1) at #181 FIU, 12 PM ET, ESPN+. I'm highly intrigued by NMSU, as this season, they've been way better against good competition than bad. As in, against top-150 teams, they've played like a top-100 team in the nation...and against teams outside of that grouping, they're 180th-best nationally. Interested to see which is closer to the truth.
#118 Sam Houston State at #147 Western Kentucky (-2), 5 PM ET, ESPN+. These are two teams that love to push the pace offensively, even if it means a decline in efficiency. Perhaps enjoy a 79-possession game where neither team gets 79 points.
#74 Oregon at #101 Maryland (-1), 7:30 PM ET, Peacock. I could be swayed that, after utterly disastrous Novembers, both of these teams have found something. In December, Oregon has had a top-15 offense behind 56% 2PT/38% 3PT efforts, while Maryland has gotten back 40% of its missed shots. They could be okay now, or they could both still be terrible. We'll see.
Holiday Bowl, 8 PM ET, FOX. This one was formerly Pac-12/Big 12 (I think?) so I'm guessing it's ACC/Big 12 now. We'll see! Whatever tiny amount of nostalgia I have left for the 2000s makes me like this game's existence. Hopefully they still play it at the Giants baseball stadium. I look forward to finding out.
#67 West Virginia at #3 Iowa State (-18), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. This game is a true test of some 3PT% regression and 'actual results' stuff I have lying around. West Virginia has been the better team in 11 of their 13 games but is 9-4 and is shooting around 4% worse than they should be offensively, per their Shot Quality numbers. ISU, meanwhile, shot 47.3% from three in the month of December and is riding a +14% 3PT% delta since the start of Players Era. I think this should be closer than it looks.
#66 Notre Dame at #57 California (-4), 11 PM ET, ESPN2. Some free advice for Notre Dame: don't go 0-2 this week. Some additional free advice: find a way to start at least 3-3 in ACC play. I don't care how, just do it.
