Welcome to another edition of the Weekend Watchlist! Before you dive in, check out this inspiring story on Virginia's Jacari White from Joey Dwyer.
Joey Dwyer
Saturday, December 20
The A+ Game of the Weekend
#63 Colorado State at #40 Utah State (-7), 2 PM ET, CBS Sports Network.
This is the A+ Game of the Weekend and you're going to deal with it. I'm aware that, at minimum, there are five games this weekend with greater star power and/or name recognition. I do not care, because this is the most purely watchable game you're going to find in college basketball between now and the New Year.
Our own Joe Jackson wrote an excellent piece on why Colorado State is dominating from the 3-point line. While I think serious regression will be owed - nobody shoots 45% from 3 and 80%+ from the free throw line in the season, or at least not yet - they're clearly very good at getting open looks. From Joe's piece:
Yes, Colorado State is more than willing to put up a ton of threes, but the interior and perimeter game work together to create their looks. If a team wants to sell out on taking away the three, Colorado State will just counter by either back cutting or curling screens to get downhill. If they don't show any help, then basically everyone on the floor for the Rams has the green light to fire away.
Because of the extreme spacing provided by CSU's setup, Hoop-Explorer has the Rams fourth nationally in usage of cuts to the basket from the perimeter, which is very intriguing when Utah State's in the 84th-percentile of allowing those actions.
Here is the downside of 3-point dominance: it obscures some major flaws. This is good when the shots go in, but bad when they don't and it reveals that, per H-E, CSU's defense is 188th-best in the nation without any preseason priors, including 284th in 2PT% allowed. The upside of having all those talented shooters comes with a downside of a CSU defense that doesn't have anything serious in the way of rim protection. This spells real trouble for me against USU, who has two outstanding downhill attackers in Mason Falslev and MJ Collins:
My other concern is simple shot volume. Adjusted for opponent quality, I'd expect USU to get off 6-7 more shot attempts than CSU in this game. Both of these are excellent shooting offenses. For CSU to keep the streak going, they've gotta show more defensively (particularly on the interior) than they have so far and those threes have to keep falling, preferably at a 40%+ rate in this one. - Will Warren
A Games
#19 Kentucky vs. #18 St. John's (-1), 12:30 PM ET, CBS.
In a complete vacuum, Kentucky's season hasn't been THAT bad up until this point. They've been outshot 27/111 (24.3%) to 39/100 (39%) from deep in their four losses - which constitutes at least some bad luck - have a double-digit win over a solid Indiana squad, and have blown the door off their buy-game opponents.
Of course, basketball isn't played in a complete vacuum, everyone thinks the sky is falling in Lexington, and this season is a wash for the Wildcats. A win over St. John's would help heal public perception, and they'll have some reinforcements with bruising forward Mouhamed Dioubate playing his second game back from injury, and star defensive big man Jayden Quaintance reportedly set to make his debut here.
Quaintance and Dioubate could make a major impact in particular here because of their offensive rebounding prowess - Top 100 teams are grabbing an absurd 42% of their misses against St. John's this season, but the Wildcats have not been outstanding on the offensive glass this year.
On the other end, Kentucky is trapping the ball far more frequently than last year, which is forcing a significantly higher assist rate by their opponents. St. John's is an exceptionally weird offense because they have five players with a 15%+ assist rate, and three players with double-digit 3-pointers, and there is zero overlap between those guys. Their passers can't shoot, and their shooters don't pass. That equation is sure to become more problematic against more pressure, like when they posted 20 turnovers against the Chris Beard no-middle against Ole Miss two weeks ago.
All told, both offenses may have some struggles here, but the difference between St. John's playmaking and Kentucky's offensive rebounding may decide the winner. - Matthew Winick
#25 Arkansas vs. #9 Houston (-5), 5:30 PM ET, CBS.
Did you forget about Houston? We won't blame you if you did. The Cougars have played just three games in December, none against Top 100 teams, and have been talked about far less than just about every top team in the country over the last few weeks.
Kelvin Sampson and Co. have used their national hiatus to work on establishing some role players off the bench. Freshman wing Isiah Harwell went off for 20 points against Jackson State, and wings Mercy Miller and Chase McCarty combined for 30 against New Orleans. Having at least two of them playing at a high level will be critical against an Arkansas that has very little drop-off amongst their eight-man rotation.
That said, the Razorbacks have seen nothing like this Houston pressure this season. Arkansas has played just one team ranked higher than 99th in defensive turnover rate this season, and no offense to Fresno State, but Houston is on another level with the defensive pressure. Freshmen Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas could be in for a rude awakening, even though both have pristine assist-to-turnover ratios.
On the other end, Houston needs to re-establish dominance on the offensive glass. Their 24th-ranked unit is the lowest Houston has ranked in that statistic since 2017-18. Luckily for them, Arkansas has been susceptible on the boards, and only have three guys capable of playing the 5-spot should foul trouble or box-out issues pile up.
It always seems like when you forget about this Cougars program for too long, they find a way back onto the radar. Saturday's primetime game could be that re-introduction. - Matthew Winick
#5 Duke (-8) vs. #27 Texas Tech, 8 PM ET, ESPN.
Texas Tech’s much maligned defense finally got Luke Bamgboye healthyish for a stretch, then he missed against Arkansas where their defense was tortured, and then he left early vs Northern Colorado, who then proceeded to put 1.32 PPP on the Raiders without their point guard available. Per EvanMiya on/off efficiency data, TTU is 27 points per 100 better defensively with Bamgboye protecting the rim, and it more importantly keeps Toppin out of the 5 spot. Without him, they’re going to have major issues against Duke’s frontcourt and I have no idea how they deter Cam Boozer from driving straight into Toppin. Defenses that have given Duke trouble have all had monster frontcourts to at least challenge Boozer and Ngongba finishing at the rim, and that just isn’t a possibility for the Raiders if Bamgboye is out again. Certainly we’ll see McCasland switch things up schematically, as he’s not going to let this defense keep playing out this way, and the obvious answer is just aggressively throwing help at Boozer on the catch and trying to take the ball out of his hands and make Duke less consistent secondary and tertiary options beat you
There is however, at least a minor case to be made for Texas Tech’s offense, but it’s a case entirely predicated on going berserk from the perimeter. Duke’s defense is of course a lockdown unit, whether it be in drop with Ngongba or their triple switching principles and aggressive hedging with Maliq Brown that lets him ignore a nonshooter and stay close to the rim (similar to what Michigan and fellow boy wonder coach Dusty May has been doing with Adey Mara and what Will Wade used to do at LSU with Tari Eason).
Generally, playing Toppin 1v1 isn’t going to work out for you (ask Brad Underwood), but Duke and Michigan are probably the two defenses that could get away with it. That said, Duke has been allowing 3PT attempts at by far the highest rate of Scheyer’s career, but that will happen when teams know they can’t score at the rim and they’re getting blown out. But there is some schematic reasoning behind it, as more aggressive two to the ball coverages will lead to higher 3PT attempt rates, but the vast majority of these Duke is allowing are contested. TTU is however an elite shot making offense, who isn’t really looking to score at the rim anyway outside of Toppin posts. The two man game of Christian Anderson and Toppin is as good as it gets offensively, but they desperately needed some help, and they finally got it from LeJuan Watts dropping 36 last time out. Of course there’s a huge difference between Northern Colorado’s defense and Duke. Essentially this TTU taking and hitting a bunch of contested threes vs Boozer picking apart a fledgling Raider defense, either with his scoring or his passing (or both). I think I know who I prefer, and I’m sure the Blue Devils’ sloppy performance against Lipscomb provided just the motivational edge Scheyer was looking for. - Jordan Majewski
B Games
#21 North Carolina (-3) vs. #39 Ohio State, 3 PM ET, CBS.
I think the easiest read in this game is can Bruce Thornton outpace UNC’s frontcourt. UNC’s base drop coverage is going to have myriad issues containing Thornton, who is scoring 1.5 PPP in ball screen creation, 1.2 PPP off the dribble, and 1.5 PPP at the rim- he is a destroyer of worlds vs drop coverage.
Of course the wildcard here is the return of Seth Trimble, whose on-ball defense against Thornton could make more of an immediate impact than his offense, depending on his minutes. On the other end, the Buckeyes have actually been strong in rim deterrence, allowing just a 7th percentile rim rate, but there’s little to no resistance when opposing offenses have been able to work it inside, and UNC’s actions through the Caleb Wilson- Henri Veesaar duo will be unlike anything the Bucks have faced to date. These are scary numbers for the OSU frontcourt.
That said, given OSU’s strong rim and transition denial, I think Hubert might be looking to hunt OSU’s guards/wings, but that’s not necessarily a strength of this Heels offense (unless Trimble is running out there with no restrictions)- but Veesaar and Bogavac will stretch the limits of OSU’s own drop coverage. This could be similar to the Illinois game for the Bucks, where despite Thornton going supernova against the Illini drop coverage, their defense just couldn’t get stops. - Jordan Majewski
#57 Northwestern vs. #55 Butler (-2), 4 PM ET, Peacock.
Butler and Northwestern meet as part of the Indy Classic double-header in Gainbridge Fieldhouse, preceding a nationally-ranked matchup between Purdue and Auburn. While the Bulldogs and Wildcats are yet to play each other this season, they are plenty familiar with one another; they met at the Arizona Tip-Off last season, with Butler winning 71-69, and also both competed at the Greenbrier Tip-Off last month. Butler beat both South Carolina and Virginia at the event, while Northwestern only beat the former. Still, KenPom rankings of No. 55 and No. 57, respectively, indicate the potential for a tightly-contested game.
While Butler has mostly exceeded expectations thus far, jumping from a preseason No. 72 KenPom rank to No. 55 after the first month and a half, Northwestern has performed nearly precisely to expectations. The Wildcats rank at their exact preseason spot on KenPom (No. 57), plus have beaten all seven teams rated below them and have lost to all four teams rated above them. From a tempo standpoint, Northwestern ranks 361st in average possession length defense (19.0 seconds), while Butler ranks 28th in offensive pace (15.4 seconds).
Northwestern has lost to its four fastest offenses faced, but perhaps tempo had less to do with that than those opponents simply being their best teams faced. Still, Northwestern’s drop-off in losses has been more noticeable on defense than offense:
Butler has been one of the better teams in the country at attacking the basket this season (91st percentile for at-the-rim attempt rate) but not at finishing (59th percentile for at-the-rim FG%). The Bulldogs are also coming off their worst finishing game of the season, making just 45% of shots at the rim on the road against UConn. They will need to bounce back in that department against Northwestern, though could also build edges with their rebounding and free throw rates. Butler ranks 16th in offensive rebounding rate and 31st in FTA/FGA; Northwestern’s defense ranks 276th and 165th in limiting those areas.
An area to watch for Northwestern offensively could be its ability to secure chance-point points. Butler is 1-3 against the top 148 for ORB%, and 7-0 against the bottom 188; Northwestern is between those two marks, coming in at 152nd nationally. - Lukas Harkins
#30 Auburn vs. #6 Purdue (-8), 6:30 PM ET, Peacock.
Eventually, we'll collectively come to the conclusion that this Purdue team is simply very good. How good are they? Title contenders? I mean, sure. They have the best offense in America, the defense isn't quite as bad as I feared it might be (though it still needs work), and despite a top-40 schedule strength right now, they've outrebounded opponents by +14.1 per 100 possessions. They also never, ever foul.
As such, I think this might be tough sledding for an Auburn team that relies on free throws for nearly a quarter of their points and has had serious problems defensively against any sort of decent opponent. I guess the minor upside is that Auburn's defense actually grades out slightly better against top-100 opponents (not by anything meaningful) than it does overall, but we're talking about being ranked 127th-best versus 141st at Torvik. Versus the top 100, they get outrebounded by 5 per 100, lose the 2PT% battle by 7%, and, per Hoop-Explorer, have a huge downgrade in their attack-and-kick game.
The latter aspect is actually the most interesting to me. Compare this, against non-top 100 competition:
Versus top 100 teams:
The latter looks like an offense that gets bogged down in half-court and gets super reliant on 1-on-1 play (usually through Tahaad Pettiford or Keyshawn Hall). It's still worked - a top-20 offense versus top-100 teams, top-15 overall - but this is driving into the teeth of an already packed-in Purdue defense, over and over and over. I don't love it. - Will Warren
#46 Boise State (-2) at #90 Nevada, 10 PM ET, Mountain West Network.
It's weird to say this about a Boise State team who is 8-3, but the Broncos have already been through hell and back thanks to their opening night loss to Hawaii Pacific. Forgotten entirely by the media, they've gone 4-2 against top-100 teams since, own future Quad 1 wins over Butler and Saint Mary's, and have turned into the usual Leon Rice defense that owns the boards and forces a lot of bad shots despite not having a true rim protector.
This series has been super even since Steve Alford got to Nevada, with Boise leading 8-6, and without fail, these games are always close (11 of 14 within 10 points). The most notable 'edge' you might have here is that the favorite in these games is just 7-7, and Boise hasn't won in Reno in their three previous attempts to do so as a favorite in this game. We'll see if Leon's magic can work in a spot that could keep the Bronco love going. - Will Warren
#47 San Diego State vs. #4 Arizona (-14), 10:30 PM ET, ESPN2.
San Diego State vs. Arizona pits a familiar defensive bully against a true national juggernaut — and unfortunately for the Aztecs, the strength gap is impossible to ignore.
It’s been a somewhat uneven start for San Diego State, the preseason Mountain West favorite that returned most of its roster from last season (11th nationally in minutes continuity, per KenPom). Losses to Troy (in 2OT) and Michigan look rough at first glance, but context matters: Troy pushed USC to 3OT and won at UAB, while Michigan has flattened nearly everyone in its path. More importantly, the Aztecs are beginning to resemble themselves again, holding three straight opponents under 1.0 point per possession as Magoon Gwath settles into a more defined role as the primary rim protector.
Offensively, SDSU has been far better than advertised. BJ Davis and Elzie Harrington are a combined 27-for-45 (60%) from three, a level of shooting efficiency the program hasn’t seen since the Malachi Flynn era. That pace is unsustainable — ShotQuality projects SDSU to shoot 8.4% worse going forward — but it has raised the Aztecs’ ceiling. To reach it consistently, Brian Dutcher’s group still needs to rediscover its identity as a top-20 defense, a standard the program met for six straight seasons prior to this year.
That task becomes daunting against Arizona, which looks every bit like a Final Four contender. Tommy Lloyd’s Wildcats are enormous — sixth nationally in average height — and built to overwhelm opponents physically. Arizona barely relies on the three-point shot (356th nationally in percentage of points scored from the 3-point line), instead dominating at the rim and on the glass. Tobe Awaka, Motiejus Krivas, Koa Peat, and Ivan Kharchenkov form a terrifying frontcourt rotation, while veteran lead guard Jaden Bradley relentlessly pressures the paint and lives at the free-throw line.
Arizona’s size shows up everywhere: 8th in offensive rebound rate, 98th percentile rim frequency (CBB Analytics), and 13th nationally in 2P% defense against a top-50 schedule. The Wildcats don’t block everything — their size and bulk simply makes finishing untenable.
The Aztecs have depth inside, but they rank just 230th in defensive rebounding, and Michigan’s interior dominance against this same frontline looms as a warning sign. SDSU’s defensive scheme invites threes, but Arizona’s physicality will likely break that structure down. - Jim Root
C Games
#146 Oakland vs. #11 Michigan State (-18), 12 PM ET, BTN.
This is the KJ Bowl™, and if you are unfamiliar with what this could mean, you are either lucky or missing out. I'm not really sure which, and I am a daily user of our Basket Under Review Discord. Speaking of which: you should sign up for that!
The yearly Kampe/Izzo game has had two very reliable outcomes: Michigan State always wins (they're 23-0 in it since Izzo took over), and the MOV rarely approaches true blowout territory. State has beaten Oakland by 20+ eight times in that run, but only two of them have come in the last decade despite Izzo's team regularly being 100 to 200 spots ahead at KenPom. There's clear respect at hand here, and Michigan State almost never runs it up on Izzo's good friend.
As such, I cannot promise that Oakland can win this (they did come close a couple of times, namely 2010), but this will likely be close for a while. State has had some experience against zone defenses this year (namely East Carolina) and have looked okay, but as usual, the Kampe zone will turn this into a jump shooting contest for State, as well as a rebounding contest. State is a little better at hitting jumpers than I anticipated but some regression is owed from deep. What this likely translates to from paper into reality is a game that's close for a while, then offers up a pair of Michigan State 9-0 or 12-2 runs to create escape velocity. - Will Warren
#113 Liberty at #59 Dayton (-9), 12:30 PM ET, USA Network.
Liberty has continually struggled against P5 size and athleticism, as it tends to blow up their more movement and spacing oriented offensive scheme, and while Dayton isn't a "P5", I think they still fall within those parameters. Liberty's ball screen motion and handoff series offense is elite in catch and shoot creation, with small but lethal shooters orbiting around offensive fulcrum Zach Cleveland (who missed a non D1 game with illness last time out for the Flames). Liberty is an astounding .57 PPP over expectancy on guarded catch and shoots (per Synergy shot quality data), but they honestly don't take that many c0ntested jump shots in the first place (5th percentile). Dayton meanwhile shifts defenses as much as any team in the country, using extended zone pressure looks at a high rate, while also doing a lot of switching in their man to man, which in turn denies much of the off-ball stuff Liberty will run (the Flyers allowing cuts and off-ball screens at a dual 9th percentile rates). A healthy Cleveland can however unplug L'Etang from the paint and open up those back cuts for the Flames
and Dayton could be experiencing a bit of culture shock after playing the extended up and down pick up game that is Florida State basketball at the moment and now facing the ultimate execution based offense. Offensively Dayton isn't going to be allowed to tally 22 transition points against the Flames like they did against FSU, but they should be able to dominate the paint, where the Flyers have been at their most efficient offensively this season. - Jordan Majewski
#95 Grand Canyon at #89 Wyoming (-5), 4 PM ET, MWN.
Wyoming’s spread PNR attack (93rd percentile with a 92nd percentile efficiency rating) that leaves the lane open and produces a high kick out rate (88th percentile open catch and shoot rate) has had some issues against strong guard your hard, no help drop coverages, which is Grand Canyon, with the Lopes allowing just a 6th percentile catch and shoot rate and forcing a 94th percentile off the dribble rate, which is not the Pokes’ strength. GCU cannot shoot (outside of deadeye Caleb Shaw), but they are owed a decent amount of positive regression on open catch and shoots, though I’m skeptical that comes in the extreme altitude of Laramie in just the Lopes’ second true road game of the season. That means Bryce Drew will try to overwhelm the Pokes’ lacking rim defense with their extreme positional size, but the Lopes have been inefficient rim finishers and they actually don’t have a strong offensive rebounding edge against a very good rebounding team in Wyoming. - Jordan Majewski
#76 Memphis at #87 Mississippi State (-2), 4 PM ET, ESPN.
The first two months of each team's season has felt like an extended humiliation ritual, which makes this either the saddest or most cathartic game of the entire weekend depending on who wins and how.
Memphis has a truly disgusting half-court offense that is completely hopeless unless Dug McDaniel or (more rarely) Sincere Parker bail them out, and usually, that does not happen. Things are really bad when a legitimate praise for this team is that Aaron Bradshaw usually converts his putback attempts. Meanwhile, Mississippi State is the most Just One Guy team of the year, with Josh Hubbard averaging 21.6 a night. It's so bad that Hubbard had to score 34 the other night to secure a one-man win...over Long Island.
It may be a bad idea to even have this listed, because Memphis's best aspect defensively is stopping drives to the basket and Mississippi State's lone good defensive feature is forcing a lot of midrange twos/kickout threes. I don't think either team will feel comfortable at all in this game, which makes me even more fascinated by potential outcomes. - Will Warren
#114 Bowling Green (-2) at #188 Ohio, 4 PM ET, ESPN+.
As MAC play begins for these two league-title contenders, the arrow pointed in completely different directions in the non-conference slate. Ohio has dropped 35 KenPom spots and sport a brutal home loss to Bethune Cookman, while Bowling Green has jumped 81 spots and feature a bonkers 16-point road win against Kansas State on their resume.
But there's no better reset than conference season. Ohio sports a brutal -8.5% 3-point gulf and have been ice cold for the majority of the year, but are off three straight wins including a very impressive overtime victory over St. Bonaventure. Meanwhile, Bowling Green's shooting has cooled off significantly since that signature power conference win.
If Ohio on-ball guard Jackson Paveletzke is able to navigate the elite pressure of the Falcons, Ohio should be able to score in the paint here and perhaps chip away at their poor 3-point margin. But if Bowling Green is able to get some open court opportunities, they could both literally and figuratively run away with this contest.
At minimum, we should have a decent idea about who can truly compete at the top of the MAC with leaders Akron and Miami Ohio. - Matthew Winick
#65 Colorado (-2) vs. #85 Stanford, 7 PM ET, ESPNU.
I actually debated putting this a tier up before realizing it's at a neutral court near neither team's campus. I guess this is the only way we can get former Pac-12 teams to finally play one another again.
That being said, these are two teams that I find surprisingly very fun to watch, particularly Colorado, who has elected to play incredibly fast offensively (for Tad Boyle standards) and is the fourth-most downhill team in the nation by rim attempt rate. It seems like every player on this team can attack the rim in transition, and if you haven't seen CU freshman Isaiah Johnson yet, you've gotta. I promise. He's 15th in the nation amongst all high-major players in points in transition, per CBB Analytics, and seems completely unafraid of any moment.
Stanford can win this game, though, simply because they're the team that seems to play competent defense. For all Colorado's goods, they're allowing nearly 108 points per 100 possessions to the 225th-strongest schedule in America, per KenPom. (Translation: bad.) Stanford has not exactly played an elite slate, either, but a top-30 TO% and a top-10 DREB% allowed is unbelievably good from a shot volume perspective. I've got Stanford 13th in defensive Shot Volume Index nationally, and adjusted for schedule, they're top-40 in shot suppression. That could be crucial in pulling off a mild upset against a familiar foe. - Will Warren
#104 Xavier at #93 Georgetown (-4), 8 PM ET, FS1.
The upside and downside of any college basketball weekend worth its salt is that there's truly a game for everyone, and this one meets that qualifier. This game is for two fanbases, neither of whom feels good at all about the direction of their teams this year, and for people who hate turnovers. That last part is serious, as this is the #2 turnover prevention offense (G'town) hosting #5.
Xavier's worst offensive performances have seemed to come against teams who can turn their water off in transition, which is one of the only things the Georgetown defense does reasonably well. Then again, Georgetown has been horrendous at defaulting to the midrange (usually KJ Lewis or Malik Mack) against any defense of note, which bodes well for a Xavier team that - surprise! - funnels more to the midrange than 89% of Division I teams. I mean...it's a game for everyone. And no one? TBD. - Will Warren
Sunday, December 21
A Game
#10 Vanderbilt (-5) at #54 Wake Forest, 1 PM ET, The CW.
I suppose you could look at Vanderbilt’s win at Memphis in two different ways: the most generous is that they won a road game despite a 23% turnover rate (their highest of the year), 6-31 shooting from 3 (their worst mark of the year), and 45% shooting on 2PT attempts (their worst of the year. The less generous reading is that Memphis pressured and hedged them completely out of their offense
and if the Tigers had any semblance of reasonable halfcourt offense themselves they would have won that game. Wake Forest will do much of the same that Memphis did defensively, as the Deacs are allowing just .52 PPP in ball screen defense and creating an absurd 43% turnover rate defending ball screens with a very aggressive hedge. Playing so aggressively on the ball naturally leads to a high 3PT attempt rate and catch and shoot rate, which Vandy is fully capable of exploiting, but we saw them rushed on those shots against Memphis, and Wake is even bigger and more athletic with their contest.
On the other end, Vandy’s own elite ball pressure generated a 23% turnover rate against Memphis, but Wake is more structured and efficient in the halfcourt than Memphis, but this is yet another offense not fully capable of exploiting Vandy’s small frontcourt, as Cooper Schwieger just hasn’t been the solution at the 5 this year. This game could be similar to what Memphis did defensively to the Dores, but with Wake a better overall offense, especially with bigger wings that could do some damage against Vandy’s defense. Or Vandy could actually hit those open threes Wake’s defense gives up with their frequent use of two on the ball, and this game could look very similar to what Oklahoma did to the Deacs. I lean a little more to the former. - Jordan Majewski
B Games
#58 Ole Miss vs. #28 NC State (-6), 1 PM ET, ESPN.
Yuck, yuck, yuck. A battle between two teams with too many losses (eight combined, not against great schedules) at a neutral site with two defenses that have serious fouling issues against better opponents, even though NC State has managed to force their top-100 opponents to take more than half of their shots from deep.
Still, this is worth elevating up a tier because of NC State's offense, which is really fun, very loose, and well worth the price of admission. In case you missed it, Paul McNeil had an out-of-body experience against Texas Southern on Wednesday, going for 47 points, which is merely 20 more than his previous career high. That's partially because Darrion Williams missed the game, but watching McNeil do stuff like this is why I remember being so high on him this offseason.
The Ole Miss defense, normally a calling card of one Chris Beard, has been good at forcing turnovers, over-helping...and that's about it. Teams don't get many direct attacks at the rim, but this is because Beard's principles force a lot of kickout threes, which would be helpful if Ole Miss guarded these shots. Well, I have bad news: they're in the 15th-percentile nationally in guarding catch-and-shoot threes, which I would call a Major Problem when playing an offense in the 93rd-percentile in hitting jumpers. - Will Warren
#3 Gonzaga (-14) vs. #79 Oregon, 6 PM ET, Peacock.
Interesting battle here between a team everyone likes and a team everyone is mad at for making them wrong in the preseason. Oregon has been a double-digit underdog just 12 times in the last 15 years under Dana, which is why I do want to report to you that they're 8-4 ATS in these opportunities (2-10 SU) and have managed to have eight of these 12 games finish within single digits.
For that to happen here, Oregon's drop coverage has to prove Gonzaga's old foe once more. The tried-and-true trick over the years for slowing down the Gonzaga offense is typically a good drop that eliminates catch-and-shoot threes generated from drives/the post, which, hey, is exactly what Oregon does. Now, this may end up being a moot point given Gonzaga's 100th-percentile post offense, huge edge in turnover margin, and defense that eliminates basically everything Oregon has done well so far...but never say never. Worth noting that the Zags, who I love, are due around 6% of 3PT regression on defense, per Shot Quality. - Will Warren
C Games
#127 Southern Illinois at #121 Bradley (-4), 2 PM ET, ESPN+.
Quick Valley turnaround for both, but Bradley had a wild 3OT affair in Terre Haute Thursday. Bradley’s dribble help and hedge was a matchup nightmare for SIU’s dribble drive offense in Nagy’s first season, and the Saluki’s are even more scant on kick out options on the perimeter this season. Bradley is going to really hone in on taking the ball out of House’s hands and forcing SIU to execute in the halfcourt. Tough matchup for the Salukis. - Jordan Majewski
#80 Cincinnati vs. #33 Clemson (-7), 3 PM ET, ESPN.
Cincinnati vs. Clemson is a meeting of two programs moving in very different directions. Clemson has quietly become one of the ACC’s most reliable winners under Brad Brownell, while Cincinnati continues to search for traction in year five of the Wes Miller era — a tenure that has increasingly feels like it is reaching a breaking point.
The Bearcats do get a jolt of intrigue with the return of Jizzle James, last season’s leading scorer, who was removed from the team in the preseason before being reinstated. Whether that move galvanizes a roster that has struggled to generate offense remains to be seen, but Cincinnati badly needs shot creation and downhill pressure. Without James, the Bearcats were severely scoring-starved and overly dependent on grinding out points at the rim.
That interior emphasis fits this matchup, because both teams are built to play inside. Each features legitimate size and the ability to rotate multiple bodies in the paint, turning this into a physical, half-court battle. Clemson’s backcourt depth has taken a hit with freshman Zac Foster lost to an ACL tear, but the Tigers still have enough frontcourt bulk and experience to hold up defensively and control the tempo.
Where Clemson separates is in transition defense and offensive structure. The Tigers are excellent at getting back into position, eliminating easy run-outs and forcing opponents to execute in the half court. That is a problem for Cincinnati, which already struggles to score efficiently when games slow down. Clemson’s defense is designed to concede jumpers — ranking 284th nationally in defensive 3PA rate — and that may is a clear edge here against the bricky Bearcats. Cincinnati simply hasn’t been able to punish teams from the perimeter, ranking 283rd in 3P%.
Cincinnati badly needs a boost from James, who quickly poured in 16 points in just 20 minutes in his season debut against Alabama State. If he can inject confidence and downhill juice into an offense desperate for it, Cincy has enough talent and athleticism to find a midseason surge. Otherwise, Clemson’s ability to dictate pace, wall off transition, and force uncomfortable shots should give the Tigers a clear edge. - Jim Root
#117 Sam Houston State at #139 New Mexico State (-1), 4 PM ET, ESPN+.
Sunday's matchup between Sam Houston State and New Mexico State is laced with familiarity, starting at the top. Bearkats head coach Chris Mudge spent years on Jason Hooten’s staff at Sam Houston before Hooten took over in Las Cruces, and that shared background shows up clearly on the floor. These programs look and feel alike — which makes for an enticing showdown early in C-USA play.
Defensively, both teams play with an aggressive, ball-pressuring style that can bleed into foul trouble. Each ranks in the bottom 20 nationally in defensive free-throw rate, a reflection of how hard they chase turnovers and disrupt passing lanes. When whistles do pile up, Sam Houston has a slight edge at the stripe, shooting 77.5% compared to 73.9% for the Aggies — a subtle but meaningful edge in what profiles as a physical WAC battle.
The frontcourt chess match is equally intriguing. Both teams are elite on the offensive glass, consistently generating second-chance opportunities, but NMSU is far more reliable defensively. The Aggies clean the defensive boards at a high level, while Sam Houston’s commitment to small-ball lineups often leaves them vulnerable to extended possessions. That contrast could swing momentum at crucial points, especially if NMSU is able to turn stops into transition chances.
From a market perspective, Sam Houston has been one of the season’s most profitable teams. The Bearkats are the only team in the country unbeaten against the spread (8–0 ATS) and have surged 70 spots in KenPom since opening night. They have challenged P5 teams (Texas Tech, Utah and Oklahoma) while taking care of business against similarly-talented opponents.
This game ultimately comes down to whether Sam Houston can survive the glass and foul battle long enough for its efficiency — particularly at the free-throw line — to matter against a stylistically familiar opponent on the road. - Jim Root
#7 UConn (-13) at #119 DePaul, 4:30 PM ET, FS1.
MONS! DePaul followed up last weekend's win over Wichita with a...perfectly respectable? road loss to St. John's. Yes, losing by 13 on the road to #18 at KenPom qualifies as some amount of progress for DePaul basketball. Now, it's time to pull off The Ultimate™: beating UConn at home.
Well, it's unlikely. DePaul does own that win over Wichita State, but their other performances against top-100 competition have been kinda rough.
- DePaul against four top-100 teams: -9% eFG%, -3.2 TO margin per 100, -3.6 rebound margin per 100, -8% 2PT%, -16.4% rim FG%
- DePaul against everyone else: +10.5% eFG%, +6.2 TO margin per 100, -0.6 rebound margin per 100, +13.1% 2PT%, +18.9% (!) rim FG%
Considering DePaul has all of four games left against teams outside of the top-100, I don't have my hopes too high. Still, there is something worth monitoring here, which is the fact that on the whole, DePaul's rim protection has been very good and has handled drives to the paint very well. Actual post-ups or bigs in general? Not really! But if they pack it in and force UConn to take a bunch of jumpers, as they have with other opponents, that does open the game up to variance...which could also mean they lose by 26. - Will Warren
#123 Columbia at #72 California (-8), 5 PM ET, ESPN+.
I suspect Kevin Hovde is going to prove himself an excellent "extra prep" coach in short order, and he's had nearly two weeks to prepare his Lions after the OT loss to Stony Brook, while Cal is playing on one day off, likely without Justin Pippen again. Columbia's hot perimeter shooting cooled off against Stony Brook, which was inevitable, but perhaps now it's Cal's turn. The Bears are shooting 40% from 3 (50% over their last 2) and are .2 PPP over expectation on jump shots, with a nearly identical under expectancy on a PPP basis in the same regard on the defensive end. Not surprisingly given his coaching pedigree, Hovde utilizes his frontcourt heavily and in versatile ways (even despite the loss of Zine Bedri), with the Lions owning a 97th percentile inside out frequency and matching efficiency rating, per hoop-explorer. Mark Madsen has altered his defensive schemes to a more hedge heavy, pack line principled defense under Isaiah Wilkins, but they've struggled a bit vs offenses with legitimate passing bigs, and grade out in just the 31st percentile defending inside out actions on a 94th percentile rate. - Jordan Majewski
#147 North Dakota State vs. #137 UC Irvine (-1), 7 PM ET, YouTube.
Very little time for the Eaters to lick their wounds after the beatdown they suffered at the Bren against Belmont, as they turn around immediately to El Paso for the Sun Bowl Invitational- pretty brutal. Belmont's spacing rendered recent paint revelation Kyle Evans unplayable, and the Eaters' elite rim defense was rendered null and void by Belmont's 36 catch and shoot points, the most UCI has allowed all season. NDSU owns a 90th percentile catch and shoot rate as well, but they also play heavily through the post, and their high catch and shoot rate is comprised of a 78th percentile guarded rate.
Defensively the Bison have completely altered their conservative man to man to a way more aggressive, hedge and blitz heavy ball screen coverage
so they're going to be looking to take the ball out of Derin Saran's hands on the ball and post help against Kyle Evans, who isn't a strong passer. This in turn would expose the Eaters' woeful jump shooting. - Jordan Majewski