The Watchlist Tune o' the Week
Okay, fine, it's a convenient title from a good album. But! I promise I have a point to it this week. As is my norm, I stumbled upon another one of those Best March Madness Moments compilation videos recently. I've seen them all, but one before bed isn't bad.
Anyway, it has all the usuals, but - and a certain fanbase should look away right now - it also has some I don't see on every compilation. Namely, the Little Rock upset of Purdue in 2016. Does anyone else remember that Purdue led that game by 13 with four minutes to play? Probably not, because you are more normal than I. But for the first time in a while, I saw this shot:
And I marveled at it. It has been nine full years and change since, and I have still never seen a shot hit that part of the rim, bounce straight up, and go in. I have attempted numerous threes in my life and have never had a shot hit the broad side of the rim and do that. If I attempted 10,000 threes from the left corner, maybe one would do that? Consider this your strange geometry.
- A Games are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ Game every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
- B Games are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
- C Games are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through. I’ll give these a sentence at most.
- We hope to never get to D or F Games this season. No need.
All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. All lines for women's games are via Bart Torvik.
Monday, December 15
A Game
I'm warning you.
B Game
Please refer to the above.
C Games
Well...
NCAAW: #72 South Florida at #27 Vanderbilt (-13.5), 7:30 PM ET, SECN+. This and the next game are the only two basketball games tonight that I can recommend you. USF has challenged themselves to the extreme this non-conference season, playing (at Torvik) #1 UConn, #2 UCLA, #16 Minnesota, #17 UCLA, #38 Fairfield, and now #28 Vandy, with #3 South Carolina still to go. They're 1-4 so far, but I have to tip the cap.
#94 Wyoming (-5) at #175 South Dakota State, 8 PM ET, Midco Sports. No one outside of the Dakotas has Midco Sports, so you're probably out of luck. It looks like it's $9.99 a month, so that's not so bad. Anyway! If you haven't seen Leland Walker for Wyoming yet, you should. He's having the rare senior year breakout after being a three-year college starter. Never give up.
Dolphins at Steelers, 8:15 PM ET, ESPN. Boy, this is putrid...but it is a game between two playoff hopefuls, technically. Miami still has about a 1% chance to get in that would grow exponentially by winning this game, and the Steelers still need to firmly secure control of the AFC North. Yuck.
Tuesday, December 16
The A+ Game of the Week
#10 Louisville at #18 Tennessee (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN. This is Tennessee's Last Stand and perhaps the spot of all spots. The Vols have lost three in a row (all to good opponents, for the record), have had a full 10 days off, and should be at the fullest strength they can be post-Cade Phillips injury. Meanwhile, Louisville's lone loss of the year was on the road to Arkansas, and their three non-home performances have seen them play 18 points worse per 100 possessions. They could be a Yum! Merchant.
Or maybe this is where they can reset and put a flagging Tennessee team into a serious spiral before Christmas break. This is a good Tennessee team that the fans are down on because of the losses, but it's also a Tennessee team whose second-best win is...Rutgers? Jeez. I mentioned the away/neutral stat for the Cards above, but even so, that's a team with wins over Kentucky, Indiana, Memphis, and Cincinnati. One of those teams might even be good.
Last year's game saw Tennessee demolish a Louisville team who had an absolute shooting howler (10-39 3s), but more importantly, it was a game that featured Louisville's single highest three-point attempt rate of the year (65% of all shots). That's been surpassed by a game against NJIT this year, but in that game, Louisville straight up couldn't get to the rim, getting just 10 (!) of their 60 shot attempts within five feet of it.
That can't and likely won't happen again this year, but the one quirk of the Pat Kelsey system is a hyper-reliance on threes against good competition. 56% of all shots against top-100 competition this year are from three, and while Tennessee remains a frustrating eval on defense, the one thing they've done exceptionally well is force deep threes, as nearly half of opponent deep balls are from 25+ feet. Louisville's happy to shoot from wherever, but against non-dire competition, they've shot 31% from three. This has potential to look like an old-school (well, three years ago) Tennessee win: ugly, not that fun, and simply getting the job done. Alternately this may be where Ja'Kobi Gillespie goes nuts against a defense that allows a lot of dribble jumpers and hasn't defended straight-line drives very well.
A Game
D2: #1 Washburn (-7.5) vs. #4 Lubbock Christian, 12 PM ET, The MIAA Network. This is a huge week for the D2 ranks, as #1 (by Massey) Washburn will play two of their fellow top four teams at a neutral site. If you would like to be a Ball Knower™ and get invested in coaches and/or players before they make the big time at the D1 level, you should take some time out to watch.
Washburn still has a beautiful offense filled with off-ball cuts and movement that has become incredibly hard to defend for the average D2 defense, as is Brett Ballard's identity. I was surprised no one took a swing at him as HC or on Washburn's point guard Jack Bachelor last summer as an excellent P&R operator:
But that's only one half of the equation. Lubbock Christian is in Year 15 of Todd Duncan, who's essentially only missing an Elite Eight run (D2's version of the F4) from a great resume that started by leading LCU from NAIA to D2. LCU plays a very deliberate style with a little bit of everything. I really like the way they use 6'6" Amondo Miller in every set, but especially these post-ups where he has an athletic advantage:
It's midday on a Tuesday. What else would you be doing? Working? In 2025? Come on.
B Games
#52 Butler at #7 UConn (-13), 8:30 PM ET, Peacock. Butler pulled off a victory in the Game of the Year on Saturday. I am serious, by the way. If you have not seen at least the highlights of Providence/Butler, please stop reading and watch:
Okay. Now that you're back, this is unlikely to be much of a follow-up. UConn projects to have a serious shot volume edge here, has the far superior frontcourt, and is 6-0 against Thad Matta since he came back to Butler. Now, I'll note the last four of those were all close games, three of which saw Butler get 25+ free throw attempts, so there's your path...but simultaneously, teams coming off an OT win then playing a ranked opponent on the road are 5-20 straight-up over the last three years. It's a tough task.
NCAAW: #57 Arizona State (-1) at #78 Gonzaga, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. Arizona State, under new HC Molly Miller (via Grand Canyon), is 11-0. This is pretty impressive even if their best win is on the road against Penn State, who looks likely to be the Big Ten's 15th-best team. This will be a rare rest super-advantage for Gonzaga, because ASU has made the strange decision to play a road game 48 hours before this one, while the Zags will have been off for 10 full days.
C Games
#107 Florida State at #68 Dayton (-8), 7 PM ET, CBSSN. A huge back-against-the-wall spot for the 'Noles, who have lost four in a row without any being particularly close. The problem is that UD Arena is probably one of the worst places to go when you have a losing streak.
#119 Miami (OH) at #141 Wright State (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Miami Not That Miami: 10-0 and just one win away (okay, they also have a non-D1 later on) from a perfect non-conference run. It's almost like Travis Steele isn't actually a bad coach, folks. This will still be a pretty tough task, but Wright State is actually sub-50% ATS as a home team post-COVID.
#88 South Carolina at #30 Clemson (-11), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. I guess this is a rivalry game. Both teams slopped it up against mid-majors on Saturday, but only one of them has multiple top-50(ish) wins. FWIW, I did spend some time Sunday trying to find records for first road games against high-major opponents, as this is South Carolina's first of the year. Murky waters, but so far in 2025-26, it looks like the road team playing their first road fixture is in the realm of ~53% ATS. That is...far better than I would've thought? Myth debunked?
#121 DePaul at #16 St. John's (-17), 7 PM ET, Peacock. Huge win for DePaul on Saturday over Wichita State. No, really: as it stands, that's their first non-conference win over a top-100 team since November 18, 2021 (Rutgers) and their first non-conference road win over a top-100 team since Minnesota on November 29, 2019. How about that! Your reward: a St. John's team that's allowed 0.76 PPP in its last four home games.
#115 ETSU at #27 North Carolina (-14), 8 PM ET, ACC Network. I'm intrigued by this because, as I have said a few times here, ETSU's defense this season is quite good. They suppress opponent shot volume very well and force opponents to take 47% of their shots from 3. For all this UNC team does well, they're just above-average as a jump shooting collective. There's a path to something interesting here, particularly with a UNC offense that doesn't have getaway speed yet.
#87 UC San Diego (-2) at #133 Loyola Marymount, 11:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Filed under 'not yet a conference game but feels like a conference game.' This is Loyola's first game in two full weeks, which will make for an interesting rust vs. rest conversation, while UCSD pounded Tulane on Saturday.
Wednesday, December 17
A Games
D2: #1 Washburn (-6.5) vs. #3 West Texas A&M, 2 PM ET, The MIAA Network. This is the other half of Washburn's mega-week. WTA&M is more of a known thing in D2 athletics, with Tom Brown having gone to four Elite Eights in the last eight years. This year's team may have his best individual player in Fontaine Williams, a guard averaging 20 a game who may be the best isolation scorer in D2. Yes, D1 people, he's a junior.
#11 Vanderbilt (-7) at #74 Memphis, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Penny Hardaway failed me once more by getting obliterated at Louisville Saturday in a very clear Penny Underdog Spot, which is a shame. Now, I don't know what to believe!
But what I do believe is that, whether you want to believe it or not, Memphis is better than their record shows, and Vandy is probably owed some minor shooting regression. In their four games against top-100 comp, VU is outshooting opposition by 9% from 3 and is at 76% at the rim. That last one doesn't typically strike us as unsustainable, but last year's national leader (Creighton) finished just under 69%, and no P5 team finished better than 63% (Iowa) on layups. Vandy's at 69%. Are they still going to be an amazing offense even with some regression? Duh. Is regression owed? Yes.
Will it come here? Maybe? While it doesn't get much publicity, Memphis's defense is fairly good despite its usual problems with fouls and defensive rebounding. They're forcing the 14th-lowest rim attempt rate allowed in the nation, which has actually been even lower against top-100 competition (just 24.8% of all attempts). All Memphis has to do is build a wall and turn this game into a jump shooting contest, which they've done before. This could go very badly, or it could be what turns the tide.
This could go very badly, or it could be what turns the tide. Vanderbilt is clearly better and can shoot their way out of this, but I do want to note that in their top-100 games, they've had major fouling issues (46.9% FT Rate allowed) and have barely been above water on the boards. Plus, yes, it's a Penny Underdog Spot. Be warned. Or watch as Vanderbilt does exactly what it says on the tin and wins by 8.
B Games
#86 South Florida at #15 Alabama (-15), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Oats vs. Assistant has had some intriguing results in the past - never an outright loss or anything, but some games that could be close-ish. USF is 6-4 with a win over Utah State, so little suggests they can win here. Yet! I would like to posit that they have been extraordinarily unlucky in their losses. Across the four of them, their opponents have shot 43-91 (47.3%) from deep. Obviously, if Alabama off a loss goes 15-34 from deep, this will not be close. If they don't, and the Tide have to play defense against essentially themselves, this could be fun.
#63 Arizona State at #31 UCLA (-8), 10:30 PM ET, FS1. For reasons beyond me, Bobby Hurley has a heck of a track record as a road underdog: 36-26-2 ATS over the last eight seasons. Weirdly, this has a split to it: 21-11 ATS coming off a loss...and 15-15-2 ATS coming off a win. As usual, you are eternally at risk of knowing nothing about Arizona State basketball.
C Games
NCAAW: #75 Troy (-3.5) at #121 Old Dominion, 12 PM ET, ESPN+. Day hoops between two of the four best teams in the Sun Belt. ODU's interior defense is really, really good, and if Troy wants to push the pace the way they usually do, they'll have to crack an ODU defense that might be the best amongst all mid-majors. Maybe. I mean, UMass, Harvard, etc. all exist.
#91 Northern Iowa (-5) at #190 UIC, 5 PM ET, ESPN+. Worktime ball for the MVC. Northern Iowa's defense actually might be the best amongst 'true' mid-majors this year. I haven't seen many teams control the pace of play the way they do. They're just so hard to crack. UIC's path to cracking it is on the boards, where they're really good, but I haven't seen much from their actual offensive process to suggest a big game.
#72 Creighton at #85 Xavier (-2), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. This is for sixth place in the Big East, yes? I think? I would have all of UConn, St. John's, Villanova, Seton Hall, and I guess Butler ahead of these two. I might even have Providence ahead. What's really important is that Creighton needs this more because their season's essentially over if it isn't. I understand if that doesn't sound important but that would break a six-year Tournament streak (including 2020, where they would've been a 2 or 3 seed), which could speed things up for Alan Huss taking the reigns.
#149 Oakland (-1) at #195 Northern Kentucky, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Early Horizon League battle amongst two of the six or so best teams in a flat conference. Also two AWFUL defenses, so tune in if you like points.
#164 Youngstown State at #176 Robert Morris (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Same as above but with much better defenses. Robert Morris may have the widest FT Rate split I'm aware of, as opponents attempt double the free throws of their offense.
NCAAW: #53 Marquette at #1 UConn (-30.5), 8 PM ET, Peacock. I have this on here for one reason: if Marquette - a top-60 team on pretty much all metrics sites - can keep this within a 30-point margin, they should be very, very proud of themselves. That's how elite UConn is.
Thursday, December 18
A Game
Rams at Seahawks, 8:15 PM ET, Prime Video. Yeah, sorry, this is obviously the winner. These are the two best teams in the NFL this year. But! If you hate the NFL and want basketball, you have options below.
B Games
NCAAW: #41 Virginia Tech (-4.5) at #81 Florida State, 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Virginia Tech has to win this game to get back above water in WAB after basically missing on every marquee opportunity they had in non-conference play. Unfortunately, FSU is pretty weak this year.
NCAAW: #47 South Dakota State at #18 Duke (-11.5), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. Duke has figured out offense recently to some extent, but I do think South Dakota State stands a real chance. They play extremely deep drop coverage, deeper than Creighton's with Kalkbrenner last year. Duke will have their choice of every jumper in the books, and if this is a game where they can't hit them, South Dakota State can do this outright.
#99 Illinois State at #122 Southern Illinois (-1), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Here's a thing Southern Illinois must solve: being awful at home in conference play. Post-COVID, they've won just 55% of their conference home games. If you can't protect your home arena, you can't take the next step as a program, which Scott Nagy would love to do.
C Games
#126 Bradley (-1) at #183 Indiana State, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This should be fun and close. Bradley has produced a maddening product thus far, but one thing they've been terrific at is perimeter defense, as they're fifth in TO% and Jaquan Johnson is third in the nation in Steal%. Playing an Indiana State team that's 251st in offensive TO% and has horrendous offensive shot volume is an intriguing get-right matchup to me.
NCAAW: #4 South Carolina (-22) at #72 South Florida, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Again, what a non-conference slate for South Florida. Just keep it within 20 and you can be very happy.
#282 Grambling State vs. #228 Norfolk State (-2), 7:30 PM ET, ESPNU. Not a conference game, but an HBCU vs. HBCU non-conference game, which I'll always support. There may not be a program better at asserting the pace than Norfolk, whose average non-conference game over the last 16 (!) years comes in just under 133 total points. Considering these two offenses ranked 323rd (Grambling) and 306th (Norfolk), you know where I stand.
#132 Drake at #97 Murray State (-6), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Murray State looks to be on another planet right now, particularly offensively, where they stand a real chance of being the best shooting offense since the Indiana State team we all loved. Don't forget about Drake, however. Their rough start has turned into wins over Charleston and Georgia Tech.
Friday, December 19
A Games
#33 Villanova 'at' #38 Wisconsin (-1), 8 PM ET, FOX. It's in Milwaukee, this is essentially a road game. And yes, this is grade inflation by nature. Finals Week has leaked into Pre-Christmas Week, which means everyone is pulling a Doug Gottlieb and pretending to do their job. Or that people just like going home for Christmas, which we can all respect.
Wisconsin is 7-3, which is far from a bad record, but all three losses have been troubling in some way. For one, they've been demolished twice by Nebraska and BYU - both of which are understandable losses, but at least one of which shouldn't have been an ass-kicking. For another, it's December 15 at the time of publishing and their best win is either Northwestern or Providence, two teams currently on the outside looking in of March.
Villanova's losses are also perfectly fine (Michigan and BYU) but they're in the same boat, as their best win is over an awful Pitt team. Wisconsin already has experience against this system from Kevin Willard's days at Maryland, five games that were all pretty even (3-2 to Wisconsin) and all lower-scoring (highest combined point total: 144). None of those games went over 67 possessions.
It's a weird deal: I think a slower, lower-point game is what Willard wants, but it could also create a scenario where, if Wisconsin can get out to an 8-point lead, it might be ballgame. Villanova's two losses have both seen them trail for >35 minutes of game time, and they have no experience (yet) overcoming a deficit of any serious distance. Worth noting Willard DID overcome a pair of 10+ point deficits last year (including the Round of 32 buzzer-beater over Colorado State). Of course, I think we'd agree the Crab Five is ahead of this 'Nova side.
NCAAW: #29 Washington at #34 Stanford (-1), 11 PM ET, ESPN+. What was once a Pac-12 rivalry is now Big Ten vs. ACC. We will not be forgiven for our sins. What we WILL be forgiven for is staying up too late for this game, which features two elite rebounding teams and defensive frontcourts.
There's also a star vs. star battle in both the frontcourt and backcourt. Stanford's Nunu Agara has been super hard to stop down low, but freshman Brynn McGaughy for the Huskies will try her best. Likewise, can Stanford's Chloe Clardy keep in touch with Washington's electric Sayvia Sellers, currently shooting 56% 2PT/42% 3PT/82% FT?
B Games
D3: #5 Catholic (-1) vs. #6 Chicago, 12 PM ET, Puerto Rico Sports Tours Network ($). No, you know nothing about this. I can't say I really do, either. But if you have $14.99 of disposable income lying around and desperately need to get through your Friday, this is a game between two of the six best D3 teams being played in Puerto Rico, for reasons I cannot begin to explain.
#50 Seton Hall at #67 Providence (-1), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. Deceptively simple for Providence from here: win. Just win. The Friars are 7-5 and have no good wins, but winning here gives you a 15-day break until your next game, and everyone likes going to Christmas on a high note. Someone will have to win games in the Big East this year. If Providence can grift their way to 13-7 Big East, they have a shot. All you can ask for.
NCAAW: #48 Seton Hall at #32 Villanova (-7.5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. What a night for Seton Hall, huh? This is a battle to potentially be runner-up to UConn in the Big East, which may not mean a ton but would obviously be more than enough to get either in the NCAA Tournament.
#79 Belmont (-3) at #125 UC Irvine, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Well, this rocks. Last year's game at Belmont was a doozy, with UCI winning 92-84 in their third-fastest game of the year. It was pretty simple for UCI: Belmont could not stop Bent Leuchten in the post and could not shut down driving lanes for Myles Che and Jurian Dixon. Only Dixon is back, and UCI's offense can be charitably described as a work-in-progress, now being reoriented around point guard Derin Saran in a semi-heliocentric attack.
This Belmont group is surprisingly much improved on defense this year with a P&R defense that's more drop coverage than hedge. This may spell trouble for the Bruins, as Saran's runners and short jumpers against drop are one of the few things that has seemed to work for UCI this year. As always, you have to prep for the typically stout Anteater D that manages to funnel a stunning amount of shots to about 8-10 feet. This made Belmont extremely jumper-happy last year and created their fourth-fewest rim attempts of '24-25; a repeat would add a TON of variance to a game that already feels unpredictable. The rare road team sweep?
C Games
#255 Dartmouth at #267 Sacred Heart (-1), 11 AM ET, ESPN+. It's day hoops. All I got.
#175 South Dakota State (-2) vs. #241 Milwaukee, 5 PM ET, BTN+. I cannot figure out why this is on BTN+. It's the pre-cursor to the Wisconsin/Villanova game, which is on FOX...but neither of these teams are in the Big Ten. I'm guessing that since the latter is a FOX product they're having to use this as one, too, but I thought that's what FS2 was for? Who knows.
#73 Tulsa (-3) at #150 Western Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. I think our next Oklahoma-based article at BUR, after Oklahoma State, has to be on Tulsa. Are these guys for real? I don't trust 42% 3PT/80% FT whatsoever, but at some point, 10-1 is 10-1, as is a 66-spot jump on KenPom from opening night.
NCAAW: #78 Gonzaga (-3.5) at #146 Missouri State, 8:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Decent mid-major game. I got nothin'.
#117 FAU at #32 Saint Mary's (-13), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. Filed under "games you really wish existed 24 months ago." Still good! Just not what it could've been. We can't always get what we want.
#110 Seattle vs. #47 Washington (-7), 11:30 PM ET, ESPN2. Love this game. For one, this may be the only inner-city affair in college basketball that somehow manages to play the game at a neutral site. These schools are a 20-minute train ride apart, and what we all needed was for this game to be played at an arena neither school plays at. Awesome! Anyway, Washington is 15-1 in this matchup historically. Would you like to guess the one loss? Last year, when Seattle won, 79-70, in a game where they shot 29-32 from the line.
