Welcome to another edition of the Weekend Watchlist! We've got notes on 26 of the weekend's best games from several different Basket Under Review contributors. Before you dive in, check out last night's top performances and Saturday's Watchability Index. Enjoy the hoops!
Saturday, December 13
The A+ Game of the Weekend
#13 Alabama vs. #6 Arizona (-1), 9:30 PM ET, ESPN.
The easy, and more than likely correct, analysis of this showdown in Birmingham is “twos vs threes”, and that’s exactly what happened when these two played in Phoenix two years ago. Arizona outscored the Tide 40-24 at the rim, while Alabama went just 8-40 from 3 (Grant Nelson received the ultimate dorking, accounting for 12 of those 32 missed threes by himself) and scored 21 catch and shoot points, their fourth lowest total of that season. That version of Alabama’s rim defense was exceptionally porous, but I would argue this group, while athletic, isn’t far behind, especially if Keitenn Bristow remains unavailable, as he’s been Alabama’s best frontcourt defender per EvanMiya on/off data. Nate Oats hasn’t been as exclusive in his relationship with drop coverage as he has been the previous few seasons, as the Tide have already doubled the post more this season than all of last season, and they’re committing on the ball screen at a significantly higher rate as well (per Synergy data). The issue is that they’re still allowing post-ups at a 99th percentile rate with a 25th percentile efficiency rating, and they’re even less efficient when doubling. Arizona’s post rate? 97th percentile with a 90th percentile efficiency rating, and they’re even more efficient playing out of post doubles. To compound issues for Alabama’s defense, Arizona’s overall PNR efficiency has increased from .94 PPP to 1.04 PPP thanks to the evolution of Jayden Bradley (who makes his return to the state of Alabama) and his ball screen manipulation and the subtraction of a certain divisive guard. There hasn’t really been an effective way to defend Bradley in the ball screen, as he cooked Florida who mostly dropped on him, and did the same to UCLA and UConn’s hedge.
If Alabama can't defend Bradley in PNR (we might see the length of Amari Allen and London Jemison in this regard), Peat/Awaka/Krivas in the paint, AND they get crushed into a cube on the O glass like they did against Purdue and Gonzaga, then it might not matter how many triples they hoist.
Of course if the Tide can manage to mitigate one or more of those areas, they're going to put Arizona's more paint tethered lineup in some awkward defensive positions, especially with the way Oats used Allen in ball screens to stretch out Clemson's frontcourt forward lineup. Allen went for 20 points with a season high 7 ball screens in that game. If Aden Holloway remains out, this will likely be another instance where Oats uses him as another primary ball screen operator. His ball screen actions really scrambled Clemson's frontcourt.
Jemison and Jalil Bethea hitting threes the past few games is significant as well, as we could certainly see a YOLO lineup that just punts against Arizona’s frontcourt from a defensive standpoint in order to maximize mismatches on the other end. That said, Arizona stays so disciplined defensively in their drop coverage, allowing the second lowest catch and shoot rate in the country per Synergy data, and a 10th percentile drive and kick rate, per hoop-explorer data.But no team has gone full on empty lane against Arizona this year, and there’s a very real possibility Alabama can pull what Wisconsin did to the Wildcats in Madison last season.
With so much of Alabama’s chances being tied to how they shoot the 3, I actually feel more confident in their being a plethora of points in this one, especially since Alabama’s spread the floor personnel can also be brutalized inside and on the glass. X-factors for the Tide are Jemison if Holloway remains out and Allen. The former’s defense on the perimeter has been outstanding and his size might be a look that can slow down Bradley- and he’s provided some offense of late as well.
Certainly worth noting as a parting shot that Tommy Lloyd and staff have had a week of prep ahead of this one, which has been the standard during finals week the past two years for the Wildcats. In those two games on the Saturday of finals week with the week off ahead of time, Arizona has been waxed by Purdue in Indianapolis two years ago and then the stunningly ugly UCLA comeback in Phoenix last year. - Jordan Majewski
A Games
#29 Arkansas vs. #19 Texas Tech (-1), 12 PM ET, ESPN2.
Boy, if only there were a place that would have told you two things last weekend heading into the Texas Tech/LSU game:
1) That this was your last chance to officially Buy Low on the Texas Tech Red Raiders;
2) That this was your best chance to officially Sell High on the LSU Tigers.
Oh. Anyway!
With one demolition of an LSU team I'm still firmly believing will end the year amongst the bottom four of the SEC, Texas Tech is officially Back, meaning they're back into the top-20 at KenPom after a 16-day hiatus and are now neutral-court faves over Arkansas, who is the platonic ideal of a John Calipari team: two fine losses to better teams, one inexplicable quasi-blowout of Louisville, and, of course, two near-losses at home to Samford and Winthrop.
This is a really fascinating game to me for a pair of reasons: both of these teams can essentially fully erase the impact of both of their losses with this one win alone, and both teams are more or less fully healthy for just about the first time all year. It's a small sample, but both are on their fourth starting lineup of the year, and both have had exactly four games of time played with said lineup. Arkansas has used this time to dial in some classics of the Calipari genre, such as using opponent switching against them to create positive 1-on-1 matchups (generally for Darius Acuff):
While Texas Tech has elected to double down on playing through the post, mostly at the hands of...well, you know who. On the right block, going to his right shoulder, JT Toppin can be untouchable on the right nights.
Nearly 25% (!) of Texas Tech's half-court possessions in the last four games end with a post-up, per Hoop-Explorer, which means countless others feature one but have a kickout/foul/something else occur. This creates a fascinating push-and-pull for both offenses and defenses to me.
Arkansas has graded out as a hair above average in post defense, but the only three offenses they've played that have more than 10 post-ups per 100 possessions - Michigan State, Samford, and Winthrop - all went north of 1.01 PPP, and MSU easily could've gone much higher had they not shot 1-14 from 3. More importantly, in that MSU game, Nick Pringle (fouled out) and Trevon Brazile (four fouls) were in foul trouble for large stretches. That can't happen here.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech is routinely happy to go 1-on-1, funnel everything to the midrange (where they force the second-highest midrange attempt rate in the sport on defense), and have found a hell of a way to eliminate kickout threes: simply don't rotate. This either spells trouble if Acuff and Meleek Thomas are up for the challenge, or it spells a game Texas Tech wins by understanding that 3 > 2. And that JT Toppin > not having JT Toppin. But my real guess here, which I know I'll regret, is points. A lot of points. - Will Warren
#27 Nebraska at #9 Illinois (-8), 4 PM ET, Peacock.
This is the Pure Fun Game of the Day. If you're going strictly on how well the two teams involved are playing right now, a real argument can be made for this to be a top-15 matchup, particularly as Nebraska's star continues to rise and as Illinois continues to lean into their best attribute (brute force in the paint). No word if the Balkan Boys will be at this game after their amazing appearance at Ohio State.
After a generational Great Spot™ for Nebraska in their home demolition of Wisconsin, there's not really many venues in America I'd be less thrilled to immediately make a road trip to than Illinois. For one, last year's parade of home losses for the Illini was kind of a mirage; in the three years preceding, they were 38-4 at home as 5+ point favorites. This is also Nebraska's first road game of the entire season, which has historically spelled trouble for a team that's 7-17 ATS as a road underdog since 2022.
My thought is pretty simple: for all the talk of how much Illinois imprints themselves on a game offensively, with a barrage of brute force down low and a ton of threes at the perimeter, they still don't imprint themselves defensively that much. They still don't force turnovers, and while Nebraska and Tennessee are vastly different, Illinois did just give up their worst opponent OREB% in eight years to the Vols and survived thanks to Tennessee simply not being able to stop Kylan Boswell or the various -ic options. Still: this is an Illinois team with a lot of options against a Nebraska team that kinda has just the one to hang in this. - Will Warren
#17 Kansas at #28 NC State (-1), 5:30 PM ET, ESPN.
The Jayhawks have Darryn Peterson back, and that’s the major storyline here. Can he bolster the sometimes-stagnant KU offense, allowing Melvin Council to slide off the ball and giving KU an All-American-caliber offensive threat? Returns against Missouri were strong, as he posted an efficient 17 points and was +16 in 23 minutes of a 20-point win. There’s certainly nothing wrong with the KU defense, as Flory Bidunga, Council and Tre White are all standouts at their respective positions.
NC State is in scramble mode from a resume sense, desperately in need of a needle-moving non-conference win. Scramble mode can also describe the Wolfpack’s defense at times this year, though they looked outstanding on that end against Liberty this week. How Wade opts to defend Peterson will be worth watching – does he switch with his army of long wings and mobile forwards? Or will he try to blitz the screen at times and force Council, Elmarko Jackson, and others to make plays?
The Jayhawks could face massive regression on the defensive end, as opponents have been miserable on both 3-point (24.9%) and mid-range jumpers. The Wolfpack would be happy to oblige, as they have a stable of potent perimeter bombers. Generating those shots could be the challenge – the NC State offense has been quite a bit of Quadir Copeland wildness compared to Darrion Williams mid-post facilitation thus far. - Jim Root
#21 Indiana at #20 Kentucky (-4), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN.
Kentucky reportedly practiced at full strength, but it sounds like Mo Dioubate is far more likely to return to the UK lineup than Jayden Quaintance is to make his long awaited Wildcat debut.
This rivalry finally gets renewed under currently inauspicous circumstances for both teams (FAR more so for Kentucky), but both teams put up massive offensive numbers last time out with new lineups. Reed Bailey responded to his benching with probably his best all around game as a Hoosier, while Kentucky went with 4 guards (none of which were Jaland Lowe) and actually hit some threes (albeit against North Carolina Central).
Schematically, there's nothing Kentucky is likely to do defensively that will really bother the Hoosier offense. IU's offense has been outstanding in the halfcourt (99th percentile efficiency rating) and plays heavily off the ball, with high frequency cut and off-ball screen rates with matching efficiency numbers. UK has routinely been roasted off the ball thanks to laziness and miscommunication. Indiana has struggled against heavy ball pressure and full on switching defenses that stagnate their ball and player movement- not a particular issue against this passive UK defense. IU's three worst shooting performances came against a 1-5 switch low mid, a zoning low mid, and in their only true road game to date. Only the latter applies to the Hoosiers in this game, as hedging/showing has been a disaster against IU's ball movement and shooting ability.
On the other end, IU is almost strictly in drop coverage, and UK has really only played one exclusive drop base this season, and that was Valpo, which was arguably their best offensive showing of the season.
All in all, I don't think either defense is really going to do anything that makes the opposing offenses uncomfortable here. UK is playing with the full anxiety of a packed Rupp in a renewed rivalry, with boos ready to be volleyed at the first sight of a Brandon Garrison jog. There isn't an outcome in this game that would surprise me. - Jordan Majewski
B Games
#49 Oklahoma State (-1) vs. #56 Oklahoma, 1 PM ET, FOX.
Basketball Bedlam! If you haven't read my piece on the legitimacy of Oklahoma State, I do think it's pretty good. Anyway, I spent two full days researching Oklahoma State and a good amount of time on this matchup, and...I don't have a good feel for it at all.
Part of this is due to Oklahoma State's schedule, but Oklahoma has offered a pile full of confusing results. A road smashing of Wake Forest is great. There's no penalty for losing close to Nebraska or not close to Gonzaga on the road. But losing by 16 to a bad Arizona State team and trailing by as many as 25 points? Messing around with Saint Francis and Alcorn State for 25 minutes? I don't love what I see there at all, which is before we get into an Oklahoma interior defense we all thought would be terrible (hasn't been yet, but plenty of time to go!) against an OSU interior offense amongst the most productive in the sport.
But largely, I have no feel here because this game could be largely decided by Literally Two Guys, both of whom play for Oklahoma. If this is the night where Xzayvier Brown (season high of 21) and/or Nijel Pack (27) elect to hit five threes and dump a historic number of points on their rival, then it's game over. Oklahoma State's defensive structure allows a ton of open threes, and if there's one thing Porter Moser's offense does really well, it's using downhill gravity and drives to create open kickout threes:
Shot volume should be pretty equal in this game, but the distribution of those shots won't. I think Oklahoma probably gets up something in the realm of 28-31 3PAs in this game. If this is the night they shoot 47% or something from deep, they win. If this is a night south of 30%, they're losing. Maybe I do know how this game goes? - Will Warren
#75 Cincinnati vs. #25 Georgia (-9), 2 PM ET, ESPNU.
Cincinnati's rim defense/denial and transition denial are both legitimately good (2nd percentile rate with a 98th percentile efficiency rating at the rim), which exactly what you need against Georgia's 99th percentile transtion rate and 73rd percentile rim rate with a 99th percentile finishing efficiency. Georgia's only loss came in their lowest rim and transition rates of the season. That said, the loss was against Clemson in OT in a game where they still sped the Tigers up out of their comfort zone. Cincinnati however if far from as disciplined as Clemson, and their turnover rate and press offense are troubling in this matchup.
Wes Miller and Mike White have been the two biggest tempo jumpers in P5 basketball this year, with both shaving whole seconds off their average possession lengths and owning 98th and 99th percentile transition rates, respectively. Part of me wonders however if Georgia's style isn't letting Cincy off the hook offensively, as they won't be forced to grind in the halfcourt as much, where they really struggle (reference EMU's zone). Pair that with Cincinnati's rim defense and forcing UGA to take jump shots they've struggled to hit (and subsequently limiting the offensive glass as well), and I think the Bearcats have the ability to keep this close with their defense.
Both teams have had a week+ of prep, and both coaches acquitted themselves well in this scenario last year, with Cincy winning the Crosstown and Georgia beating Grand Canyon. - Jordan Majewski
#66 Santa Clara (-1) vs. #70 Arizona State, 7 PM ET, TNT.
Figuring out an Arizona State offensive performance this year is thankfully pretty easy. If the opponent runs drop coverage, they'll probably play pretty well and Moe Odum may have a huge game. If the opponent runs anything else, they'll likely struggle a bit more, because this is not a roster with much shooting on it and they don't assert themselves offensively from a shot volume perspective to make up for that.
Two problems for Arizona State here are that Santa Clara doesn't primarily run drop coverage (sometimes, but it's mostly hedges or at-the-level coverage) and that Santa Clara, secretly, may be one of the ten or so best teams this year at owning a game from a shot volume perspective. They're sixth in OREB%, are running a +4 turnover margin per 100, and are going to play a team that gets outrebounded in the average game. Do you believe Arizona State will continue outshooting their opponents by 8% from three while Santa Clara's opponents shoot 78% from the line? If so, you probably believe the Sun Devils are winning this. If no, you're with me and the Broncos. - Will Warren
#93 San Francisco at #42 Saint Louis (-11), 8 PM ET, ESPN+.
Two mid-majors that entered the season with designs on earning an at-large bid square off at Chaifetz Arena. The Dons’ hopes may already be dead, but a road win at arguably the A10’s best team could jumpstart a run through the WCC. Frontcourt injuries have limited USF, though, with David Fuchs missing the last two games and Ndewedo Newbury not yet having debuted this season.
SLU, meanwhile, has actually has a full contingent of players this season after piecing a rotation together with Scotch tape around Robbie Avila last year. That has allowed the Bills to thrive on both ends, and they rank top 11 in both 2P% offense and 2P% defense. The only other teams currently boasting that twofer are Michigan, Duke and…Georgia?! Yes, the schedule helps, but this team is potent on both ends of the floor.
SLU has crushed teams in transition this year, but even if you slow them down, Avila and Amari McCottry have been fantastic triggermen for a varied and lethal attack that can really spread opponents out. San Francisco has played some up-tempo attacks – Memphis, Colorado – but nothing like the relentless SLU engine. The Dons, meanwhile, are a balanced attack, but they’ve really struggled to score against top 100 opponents. - Jim Root
#40 SMU vs. #39 LSU (-1), 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network.
SMU is 9-1 with three KenPom top-100 wins and its lone loss coming on the road to Vanderbilt. Yet, the Mustangs still reside just above the “Andy Enfield Sweet Spot” (his teams have finished between No. 45 and No. 55 in seven of 10 years) at No. 40 on KenPom. Put simply, SMU’s margin in regulation during its three big wins is +2. The Mustangs beat Butler by two, then needed OT to knock off Mississippi State and Texas A&M. The latter two coming away from home potentially sets them up well to face LSU in New Orleans, though.
LSU is similarly 8-1 with its only loss coming to a nationally-ranked opponent in Texas Tech. The Tigers do not have the standout wins of SMU but victories over Drake, DePaul, and Boston College — all at neutral or road environments — are top-150 in their own right. On paper, this projects to be an excellent matchup between two up-tempo offenses who like to score inside the arc and at the foul line; both teams rate in the bottom-100 for 3-point attempt rate but in the top-100 for 2P% and FTA/FGA. However, they do it differently.
LSU is led in its at-the-rim scoring by its forwards and bigs. The Tigers rate in the 63rd percentile for at-the-rim FGA% and are in the 99th (!!) percentile for efficiency. The starting frontline of Pablo Tamba, Marquel Sutton, and Michael Nwoko is combining to shoot 87.4% at the rim on 9.7 attempts per game this season, while reserve Jalen Reed also contributes. Starting guards Dedan Thomas (82.3%) and Max Mackinnon (63.1%) are very effective inside but only attempt 1.9 and 2.1 shots at the rim per game, respectively.
SMU, meanwhile, rates in the 90th percentile for non-at-the-rim paint 2s FGA% and in the 86th percentile for mid-range attempt rate. Generally less efficient shots, but the Mustangs make opponents pay for giving them up, rating in the 95th percentile for efficiency on middies. Boopie Miller, BJ Edwards, and Jaron Pierre Jr. are deadly in the intermediate.
Both teams rank top-5 in experience, per KenPom. - Lukas Harkins
#31 UCLA vs. #3 Gonzaga (-3), 11:30 PM ET, ESPN.
The bring wrinkle heading into this rivalry is UCLA's zone, which Mick Cronin stuck with against Oregon after debuting it against Washington. The zone has been accompanied with some time-wasting 2-2-1 pressure before falling back into an amorphous 2-3. I noted ahead of the Oregon game that I thought UCLA would stick with the zone, and they did and it was successful, with the Ducks scoring just .52 PPP in zone offense.
Given how Gonzaga runs offense through their two bigs, and the fact UCLA's defense from their frontcourt inspired the zone in the first place, I'd be surprised if we didn't see similar zone rates from Cronin tonight (that is if he hasn't fallen asleep given his complaints about the late tip). Gonzaga has seen almost no zone this season, and the primary goals against the Zags are always deny the rim and transition, which this zone accomplished against Oregon (6 transition possessions, 17 points at the rim). Gonzaga's frontcourt and ability to play high low at one of the most efficient levels in the sport is of course much different structurally than Oregon's frontcourt, but it's certainly better than watching Booker and Bilodeau get bullied or Jamerson foul out in 10 minutes. Of course Gonzaga could still very well shred in zone offense and both Oregon and Washington crushed the Bruins on the offensive glass with UCLA struggling to rebound out of the zone. Cronin clearly knows how to scheme against the Mark Few/Tommy Lloyd style of basketball, as he had both of them locked up last season in probably the ugliest game for each team. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see him do it again, this time with a zone.
On the other end, Donovan Dent was eaten alive by Cal's hard hedge earlier this year, turning the ball over 6 times in one of the worst games of his career. Gonzaga's hedge of course has been elite this season, allowing just .63 PPP and creating a 28% turnover rate when committing on the ball screen, per Synergy data. If the Bruins are turning the ball over and getting crushed on the offensive glass, that shot volume swing could easily be the determing factor in this game. - Jordan Majewski
C Games
#154 Toledo at #179 Robert Morris (-1), 1 PM ET, ESPN+.
There aren’t many teams with as radical of a differential between their efficiency on each end of the floor than Toledo. Tod Kowalczyk’s teams have always leaned more towards the offensive side, but it has reached a fever pitch over the last three seasons. Including this year, his teams have averaged ranking ~63rd in adjusted offense and ~304th in adjusted defense. For this year, in particular, the Rockets rely heavily on their starting lineup; they are one of only six teams in the country with five players at over 50% of minutes played while recording usage rates over 19% in Division I games.
On the flip side, Robert Morris has been the epitome of balance, rating 187th in offense and 183rd in defense. The Colonials also have distinct areas in which they have thrived and struggled. On the plus side, they are excellent on the offensive glass, plus rate in the upper half of the country in 2P% and 3P% on both ends of the floor. On the downside, they both turn the ball over and don’t force turnovers, as well as rank sub-350th in FTA/FGA offense and defense. For the season, opponents are making 9.3 more free throws per game.
Thankfully for Robert Morris, the free-throw game might not decide this one. Toledo already doesn’t send teams to the line (5th in FTA/FGA allowed), and it isn’t great at drawing fouls (287th), either. A key for RMU will be slowing down Toledo’s transition attack. The Rockets attempt 21.3% of shots in transition in their wins, as opposed to 16.9% in losses.
On the other end, Toledo will look to limit RMU’s offensive rebounding. The Rockets have struggled to get initial stops this season, and allowing second-chances when they do are killers. Toledo is 0-3 when allowing an OR% over 35% this season, while RMU has reached that mark in eight of 11 games. - Lukas Harkins
#72 Providence at #47 Butler (-6), 2 PM ET, TNT.
Big East league play is here, and it starts in Hinkle Fieldhouse. However, this won’t look like your usual matchup between Butler and Providence. While both programs have skewed towards the slower half of the country in recent years, with neither ranking in the top-100 for average possession length since 2016, both are in the top-25 for offensive pace to begin this campaign. However, Butler will be without point guard Jalen Jackson; the Bulldogs’ average possession length has jumped from 13.5 seconds with Jackson healthy to 14.7 seconds per possession without him over the last three games.
Given Providence’s elite rim protection, a focus for Butler will be rediscovering its 3-point range. The Bulldogs shot just 4-for-18 in their home loss to Boise State last weekend, yet still rank 20th nationally in 3-point percentage behind the trio of Finley Bizjack, Evan Haywood and Jamie Kaiser (combined 54-for-122 from three). Butler hasn’t been a very high-volume 3-point team this season but the perimeter is where Providence’s defense has been susceptible to this point. While the Oswin Erhunmwunse-led interior rates in the 86th or better percentile in FGA% allowed and FG% allowed at the rim this season, Providence's 3-point defense has allowed its opponents to shoot better than their season-average — and on higher volume — in eight of 11 games.
On the other end of the floor, Providence’s efficiency at the rim has been critical in its results. The Friars are shooting 77.9% at the rim in their wins this season, as opposed to just 52.0% in their losses. Jamier Jones, in particular, is shooting 82.5% on 5.7 rim attempts per game in Providence’s wins, but only 44.4% on 2.3 rim attempts in the losses. Butler’s interior defense rates in the 24th percentile for rim rate allowed but the 59th for FG% allowed on those attempts. - Lukas Harkins
#140 UC Santa Barbara vs. #85 Utah Valley (-7), 2 PM ET, ESPN+.
This Saturday is pretty loaded, but if you can find time to see a little of this game I think it won't be a decision you regret. For one, these are two teams you may see in the NCAA Tournament in three months, as UVU is the WAC favorite and UCSB among those fighting for the Big West. For another, these two are such harsh opposites that it gets into Styles Make Fights territory, and those types of games are usually the most reliable for producing tense two-hour viewing experiences.
UCSB flows through numerous P&R and post sets designed to run the offense through Aidan Mahaney and Hosana Kitenge, their two big portal gets this offseason. Miro Little is more efficient than either of them, though, and is a scary 2-guard that can get downhill and collapse a defense while possessing the ability to hit open kickout threes if needed. He's been better than either of the two stars on the roster.
UVU, meanwhile, is all downhill, all the time. Thanks to their rim gravity, there may not be a team in college basketball this year that makes greater use of the dunker spot dump-off than the Wolverines. Coupled with all of this is a serious push-and-pull between a UVU offense that should dominate inside versus a UCSB offense that can out-shoot anyone on the right night. - Will Warren
#81 George Washington vs. #14 Florida (-12), 2:30 PM ET, ESPN2.
Two teams coming off disappointing losses, but they are headed in different directions. Florida is trending up despite picking up a 4th loss already this season, having nearly knocked off Duke at Duke and UConn at Madison Square Garden. The Gators should feast inside against a vulnerable GW interior defense. The Revs just surrendered 55% shooting inside the arc against an alarmingly short-handed Delaware team.
That home defeat to Delaware was a “smash the panic button”-level loss for the Colonials Revolutionaries. GW never once held a lead in a game in which it was a 22.5-point favorite, a staggering disappointment of an effort that all but seals GW as needing to win the A10 Tournament to make the Big Dance.
Speaking of 2P% - the Revs shot just 29.4% inside the arc against Delaware. What are they going to do against the Gators’ deep, towering frontcourt? Chris Caputo’s team better make jumpers, or it will find it nearly impossible to score. Florida’s lineups with Haugh at the 3 are not perfect, but they are extremely stingy on the defensive end.
This is going to be an angry Gators team that has lost three of its last four games and is finally playing a game in the Sunshine State for the first time since November 21. Plus, Xaivian Lee looked good against the Huskies, so perhaps the Princeton transfer is finally getting comfortable in a Gator uniform. Lee and Fland have played well together in the same game just once, and Florida took care of Providence from wire to wire in that game. This one feels like a Gators smash. - Jim Root
#79 Kansas State at #65 Creighton (-5), 3 PM ET, FOX.
Though this statement lacks the analytical breakdown that you should expect from these weekend watchlists...the vibes are very much down in Omaha, Nebraska and Manhattan, Kansas at the moment. Creighton has gotten blasted by every power conference opponent outside of a Nate Bittle-less Oregon squad, while Kansas State has seen a promising start fade into thin air following a four-game losing streak.
The Wildcats' struggles are fairly obvious. Their mega-star PJ Haggerty has been very bad over their cold streak. In wins, Haggerty is averaging 28.2 points per game while shooting 60.2% and has 34 assists to 21 turnovers. In losses, he's averaging 17.8 points per game on 38.6% shooting with 17 assists to 19 turnovers. He's also faced a murder's row of defenders: I wouldn't wish Tayton Conerway-into-Javontae Campbell-into Seton Hall's plethora of perimeter options onto my worst enemy.
Luckily for Haggerty, Creighton boasts no such elite perimeter defender, and their super soft drop coverage that is 329th in defensive turnover rate won't put immense pressure on him.
Creighton's issues seem less fixable. They don't have a clear on-ball creator, their off-ball 3-point shooting has been suspect at best, and they've gotten killed on the offensive glass, something that their defensive coverage is supposed to remedy. Creighton doesn't have a top 50 offense or defense in KenPom right now, and the only other time that's happened in the Greg McDermott-Big East Creighton era was in 2014-15, when the Bluejays went 14-19 and 4-14 in conference play. If they can't take advantage of a reeling Kansas State squad, the arrow may be headed in that direction. - Matthew Winick
#64 Memphis at #15 Louisville (-13), 3:30 PM ET, ESPN.
"Is Memphis good?" This is a thread on a message board, locked after 11,000 pages of years-l0ng debate. My answer: maybe? While being 4-4, Memphis has played one of the hardest schedules in America so far, and there are worse lives than owning wins over Baylor and San Francisco. Then again, a good team would probably have won at least one of the Ole Miss/Wake Forest games, to say nothing of their putrid home loss to UNLV.
This also falls under the Underdog Penny Hardaway category, which longtime followers will know as this: Mr. Hardaway is a hilarious 40-23 ATS as an underdog and is 11-3 ATS, with no loss by more than 13, as a road dog of 6 or more points. Even this year, Memphis has already beaten Baylor as a minor underdog and hung with Purdue for 36 minutes. What would one more over-performance be?
If Memphis is going to imprint their brand of chaos on this game, they've got to push the pace off of Louisville misses and hit the wide variety of 17-foot jumpers the Cardinals allow and Memphis is more than happy to attempt. I also have some lurking questions about Louisville's rebounding. The Cards have played four top-100 opponents and are sitting at a net -4 rebound margin per 100, which is wildly dangerous against a Memphis team getting back 38% of their misses against, so far, a top-20 schedule.
Then again...well, I am simply Not Convinced this Memphis team can control the game at the rim. Opponents are shooting 63% at the rim so far (296th nationally) and the Tigers have been horrific in post coverage and in limiting cuts from the perimeter, the latter of which may be Louisville's single best attribute. Feels like a huge game for Sananda Fru to me, but also Aly Khalifa. Maybe some rare big-to-big action? - Will Warren
#54 Akron (-7) vs. #112 Murray State, 4 PM ET, Baller TV
Outside of the 10 conferences with a positive net rating this season (Power 5 + Mountain West, A-10, WCC, Missouri Valley, American), Akron's No. 54 ranking is the nation's highest, 22 spots above anyone else in those other 21 leagues.
They've accomplished this with an elite-shooting, super speedy offense that looks like Alabama's analytically, and an ability to boat race inferior competition - al eight of their wins have come by at least 14 points.
On the other side, Murray State looks a lot like head coach Ryan Miller's old boss' team in Omaha. Much like quintessential Creighton, the Racers play very fast, shoot a ton of threes, and allow the lowest rate of long balls nationally on the defensive end. That can lead to some streaky results however, and Murray State is 5-0 when they shoot at least 35% from deep compared to just 2-3 when they don't.
Akron is a scintillating 99th% pick-and-roll ball handler scoring team thanks to the elite dribble creation trio of Tavari Johnson, Shammah Scott, and Sharron Young, which spells trouble for Murray in the middle of the floor as their bigs get parked in the paint. They also have a pick-and-pop threat in Amani Lyles, who is quietly doing his best Enrique Freeman this year as one of the least talked about superstars in the country.
That said, if Murray State goes something like 10-for-25 from deep like they did against George Washington in a thrilling 96-95 win, nothing is off the table. This game should have so many possessions and so many jumpers that you can expect massive swings, and momentum to change constantly, which should make it one of the most entertaining contests on a packed Saturday. - Matthew Winick
#103 Illinois State vs. #41 Utah State (-9), 5 PM ET, YouTube.
Given Illinois State's shooters and the passing/nail creation of Chase Walker, it's not surprising to see ISUred has generally shredded in zone offense under Ryan Pedon, and not surprising to see teams rarely zone the Redbirds because of that. However, USU hasn't run their 1-3-1 matchup zone at all the past 3 games, which has been a fascinating turn of events, as they've been switching in man to man in that span, which has increased their isolation rate forced. Illinois State has actually been efficient in iso offense, but that's far from how they operate offensively.
On the other end, USU typically struggles with more aggressive, hedging defenses that disrupt their more complex actions in the halfcourt. This is not the case with ISU, who has to park the laterally slower Walker in a deeper drop coverage. Worth noting Pedon has been oustanding the weekend of finals after having the week to prep, having defeated NDSU and St. Louis in back to back seasons, but playing in altitude in an NBA arena is a bit of a different scenario. - Jordan Majewski
#117 Southern Illinois at #100 Richmond (-5), 6 PM ET, ESPN+.
Opposing offensive identities here, as SIU wants to straight line drive to the rim and cut behind the help at a fast pace
while Richmond methodically runs through their handoffs and Princeton motion.
So what's more likely to win out? Richmond's 3rd percentile rim rate allowed is quite helpful here, as SIU grades out as a 6th percentile jump shot offense in terms of efficiency, with only .09 PPP of expected positive regression, per Synergy data. - Jordan Majewski
#73 West Virginia vs. #36 Ohio State (-4), 8 PM ET, ESPNU.
While this is on the C Tier and is the final C Game of the day, it's deceptively really important for two teams with real hopes to make the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Chris Gallo's amazing WAB Watch website has Ohio State barely above WAB Water (sure) nationally, while WVU is in desperate, desperate need of a win to right the ship and save a flagging resume.
A huge issue I see coming down the pipe for Ohio State, just like I did for 2024-25 Ohio State, is that they STILL cannot produce plus shot volume against opponents of decency. In four games against top-100ish teams (we're including Pitt, sue me), the Bucks are getting outrebounded by 10 per 100 possessions, are at a perfect +0 in turnovers, and - surprise! - their magical 3PT% gap Jake Diebler runs up is eliminated instantly. (It's +7.8% right now if you're intrigued by selling high.)
Meanwhile, this WVU team is not good at shooting a basketball, but like a good Ross Hodge team, they are smoking hot defensively, posting the 10th-best OREB% allowed, the 32nd-best TO%, and the 5th-best opponent 2PT%. You can beat this WVU defense with kickout threes and skip passes, but they're so locked in at the moment that what I'm fearing if I'm an OSU fan is a lot of long, slow possessions that end in 1-on-1 ISOs. As such, this is another Variance Game at an NBA arena with an unfamiliar shooting backdrop. - Will Warren
Sunday, December 14
A Game
#32 Saint Mary's (-1) vs. #44 Boise State, 6 PM ET, Boise State's website for some reason.
There might not be a better battle of specific program staples this weekend than Saint Mary’s offensive rebounding versus Boise State’s defensive rebounding. The Gaels rank 25th nationally in offensive rebounding rate this season after finishing second last year and third the year before. Meanwhile, the Broncos are currently second in defensive rebounding rate after finishing third last year and fifth the year before; they have finished sub-25 in DR% just once since 2012. Height isn’t everything on the glass, but both teams rank top-25 in height, per KenPom.
From a seasons-to-date standpoint, Saint Mary’s enters at 8-1 with its only loss coming to Vanderbilt. In typical fashion, the Gaels have played extremely well against a strong set of mid-major opponents. They do hold wins over Virginia Tech and Wichita State, but also five other KenPom top-200 opponents. Boise State can similarly boast six KP top-200 wins, including winning at Butler, but has three losses, one of which to non-D1 Hawaii Pacific.
When Boise has the ball, a key is staying in attack mode offensively. Arguably the Broncos' four worst performances this season have come when they were forced to attempt over 39% of their total field goals from beyond the arc, either by defense or game flow. While the Broncos are not an efficient finishing team regardless of result, they attempt a much higher rate of shots at the rim in wins (33.7%) versus in losses (20.2%). In their road win over Butler, the Broncos took a season-low 23.8% of their shots from three and a season-high 49.2% of their shots at the rim.
SMC’s defense rates in the 49th percentile for rim rate allowed but in the 68th percentile for FG% allowed at the rim. - Lukas Harkins
B Game
#148 Troy at #104 UAB (-7), 3 PM ET, ESPN2.
Talk about two whirlwind seasons! UAB's wonky resume has a mega-impressive 17-point win over High Point and a road win at Drake, but also includes a home loss to No. 255 Alabama State. Meanwhile, we all know about Troy's 20T win at San Diego State and near-3OT win at USC, but they also have two losses to sub-200 KenPom teams including at home to West Georgia.
All this to say, this game will depend on which version of each team shows up here. UAB is one of the best two-way rebounding teams in the country led by physical JUCO import Evan Chatman, but they're 357th in 3-point percentage and wildly only have two players on the roster with double-digit made threes on the year - their starting backcourt of Ahmad Robinson and Jacob Meyer.
On the flipside, Troy's biggest strength is their starters, and biggest weakness is their bench. They have four players (Victor Valdes, Cooper Campbell, Thomas Dowd, and Theo Seng) all in the Top-500 nationally in minutes percentage. And no one else on the roster besides those four has more than 26 field goals on the year. Troy is a +27 when all four of them are on the court this season, and a -39 in all other lineups.
If UAB's rebounding and physicality forces Troy's starters into foul trouble, then it could be a long afternoon for the Trojans as they start to dig down into their bench. But their patented full court pressure could wear on UAB's dynamic backcourt duo and the Blazers aren't stocked with scoring elsewhere on the roster. What we do know is whoever wins this game is able to add an emphatic checkmark to a non-conference slate with a mixed bag of results. - Matthew Winick
C Games
#128 Kent State (-6) at #244 Portland, 5 PM ET, ESPN+.
This looks like a really bad matchup for Portland on paper. Kent State is 44-9 in the last five years under Rob Senderoff when they win both turnover and offensive rebound margin, the former of which is a stat Portland has yet to win in any game this season. (They've outrebounded two D1 opponents out of eight.) If Portland gets trounced in shot volume by Kent State as expected - really not ideal to be heading into this game an expected -6 in combined FGA/FTA - then Portland will simply have to shoot the lights out.
Which, hey, they've done at times. Portland is shooting 59% on twos (top-35 nationally) and 64% at the rim behind a pair of stout centers in Timo George and James O'Donnell, who have been outstanding as screeners in P&R. O'Donnell and George are also both very stout in true post-ups, which is good against a post defense Hoop-Explorer rates as below the national average once adjusted for schedule. Bully ball can win this game...but only if it's efficient bully ball, and only if Kent State doesn't get back 15 offensive rebounds. - Will Warren
#138 North Texas at #172 South Alabama (-1), 5:30 PM ET, ESPN+.
As with every game involving South Alabama, I make a dash to Synergy to see how the opposing offense fares vs zone, and North Texas has actually seen a high zone rate to date, the vast majority of it coming from games vs Eastern Washington and Oregon State. UNT was also surprisingly efficient in zone offense in both of those games, scoring over 1 PPP, with effective cutting and ball movement.
Perhaps UNT's effectiveness in zone offense isn't that much of a surprise given Daniyal Robinson spent a few seasons in the HoriZONE League, where zone defense is everywhere. There are of course structural differences between Dan Monson's zone at EWU and Richie Riley's more complex zone at USA, but I'd be surprised if UNT was totally lost here.
UNT defensively is aggressive on the ball and forces a high isolation rate, as they're fine funneling you into a surprisingly effective rim defense, and that's just as important as UNT's zone offense, as USA likes to win 1v1 matchups downhill (99th percentile rim rate) and kick out otherwise. Free throw rate is another biggie here, as both offenses play to contact, but USA's zone has naturally led to the lowest FT rate allowed in the country, with the opposite true for the Mean Green. - Jordan Majewski
#175 Washington State at #35 USC (-18), 7:30 PM ET, FS1.
I like David Riley and have been extremely pro-David Riley in past seasons, but at some point you gotta do the part of the job where you win some games. Wazzu is 3-7, with two of the wins being over Southern Utah (1-7 against D1 comp) and Chaminade. The losses have generally been close but all close losses get you in 2025 is closer to a hot seat. He has plenty of runway left, but eventually you need your moment in the sun.
I'm not sure this is anywhere close to a likely one, but intriguing two-way shooting variance is owed here. Wazzu's opponents have ripped off a 39% hit rate from 3 (nearly 5% over expectation), while USC's +9.6% 3PT% gap is one of the more extreme 3PT% gaps in the sport at the moment. USC's also oddly bad at defensive rebounding, and rebounding is one of the few things that's gone well for the Cougars so far. I'm not saying! I'm just saying it might be somewhat close. Maybe. - Will Warren
