The Watchlist Tune o' the Week
Happy Monday, and happy December. I hope you enjoyed your Thanksgiving and/or Feast Week. We'll return to normalcy this week with a standard, albeit very long, Watchlist. No topline essay as I've got a pair of other pieces coming later this week, including one on the Houston/Tennessee heavyweight affair. This is also nearly 6,000 words, so...apologies.
Reminder of the rules:
- A Games are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ Game every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
- B Games are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
- C Games are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through.
- We hope to never get to D or F Games this season. No need.
All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. All lines for women's games are via Bart Torvik.
Monday, December 1
A Game
NCAAW: #37 Villanova at #18 West Virginia (-8.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Despite a 5-2 record Villanova's been fairly impressive, whooping JMU on the road and producing a pretty nice TO margin against their competition. They move the ball very well offensively and produce good shots. How much of that is repeatable against an elite West Virginia defense that forces turnovers in bunches and is essentially one outlier Ohio State shooting performance from 7-0?
B Game
None. Ugly night.
C Games
#152 Temple at #42 Villanova (-15), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. Again, if Kevin Willard wants to get off on the right foot he needs to win these games without much doubt being left. Villanova should hold a huge interior edge here, both on the boards and in terms of actual frontcourt performance. It's then on Temple to get huge perimeter production to stay in this. Are Derrian Ford, Aiden Tobiason, and Jordan Mason up to the task?
#98 UAB (-2) at #154 Middle Tennessee, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. A great test of the Murphy Center Theory here. UAB has been horrendous shooting from deep so far but should regress to the mean...which usually does not happen in this arena.
#78 McNeese (-7) at #196 Incarnate Word, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. McNeese has been fantastic but chaotic, which is how you pair a 73-60 demolition of Murray State with a 79-67 loss to Santa Clara where you weren't within single digits at any point in the final 18 minutes. As such, I feel comfortable guessing that the final margin of this game will be well off the KenPom spread in either direction.
#138 Bowling Green at #54 Kansas State (-13), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Interesting roster cross-over here, as Marcus Johnson (formerly of BGSU) is technically playing for Kansas State...but is not in the rotation. I'm intrigued by this one, as Kansas State looks very leaky on the boards and BGSU's very good on them. (They also force a ton of turnovers.) If K-State can't hit threes at their current pace and get Shot Volumed, it's plausible. Alternately this could be your usual 20+ point belittling of a MAC foe.
#130 Cal Baptist at #63 Colorado (-11), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Cal Baptist is up 54 spots on KenPom and is 6-0. Have any of the wins (outside of a road win at UC Irvine) been over decent competition? No, but a +23.2 (!) rebounding margin per 100 is impressive no matter who you play.
Tuesday, December 2
The A+ Game of the Week
#7 UConn at #20 Kansas (-1), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. For what it's worth, there was internal debate (me versus me) on if this or a game on Friday that's probably a little more fun was the Game of the Week. This game won out because of an important tiebreaker: it is at an actual campus site and not a neutral arena in a completely different state. Let this be a lesson to everyone: if you want to be the A+ Game of the Week in a Will Warren Watchlist, stop playing games at Bridgestone Arena. Or just offer a fix for the Nashville Predators.
This was the site of one of the only blemishes for the 2023-24 UConn title team that remains one of the great teams of the last ~30 years, so a return trip this soon is intriguing even if they weren't good. Thankfully, both teams looked the best they've been all season last week. I was beyond impressed with Kansas finding something in the second half against Tennessee, while UConn more or less controlled it all the way through against Illinois.
One thing I'm looking for here, given player availability questions for KU, is how successful UConn is at attacking the teeth of the Jayhawk defense. Kansas has been outstanding at forcing long, 1-on-1 possessions, but they've had some odd struggles against off-ball screens, which Tennessee exploited really well early on before KU adjusted to funnel these more to the midrange. Compare this from the first half:
To the second:
UConn is the only Power Five team that runs these actions as often as Tennessee. If they hit shots off of them, they'll win. If not: another signature win for Kansas, and another step closer on the take I sent Isaac Trotter a month ago. You know I love my takes.
A Games
#16 Florida at #3 Duke (-8), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN. No major takes here, folks: I just wanna watch it. But I am concerned about Florida, who has had four normal shooting games in a row. Games which produced a collective 3PT% of 32.7%. That's simply not good enough to overcome their other deficiencies, which include a backcourt that doesn't force turnovers and commits too many of their own. I'm willing to be deeply wrong as I often am, but this feels like an awful matchup against a team that is unbelievable in each direction inside the perimeter and has anywhere from 3-6 great shooters depending on the night. TBD.
#31 North Carolina at #11 Kentucky (-9), 9:30 PM ET, ESPN. What a night where this is your third-best game. It's nice to live in our world!
My Trotter take I mentioned two games ago is directly tied to the outcome of this one, so regrettably, I favor Kentucky for that reason. Kentucky hasn't played anyone of note since their Michigan State implosion, but that doesn't mean there's a lack of interesting takeaways. For one, Kentucky appears to be running with Jasper Johnson as a co-point guard to Denzel Aberdeen, who's played a little more off-ball. That's allowing Aberdeen to get open more frequently and enables Johnson to be a downhill creator, which I like.
The other is that Kentucky has heavily upped Kam Williams' minutes, which I also like. I think they'll be best when they shove Brandon Garrison to 8th or 9th man status, but they can't do that just yet. The problem that remains unfixable for UK, as it stands, is that two of their best players are Mouhamed Dioubate and Malachi Moreno, neither of whom can shoot a basketball. Until they figure out a way around that, they'll remain clunky, and that opens the door for UNC to hand them a third loss.
B Games
#21 Iowa at #15 Michigan State (-6), 7 PM ET, Peacock. The Big Ten's odd schedule and worse conference structure means that conference play starts at the crack of December, which does mean you get good games like this. Both of these teams won MTEs of various sorts last week, and I wonder if shot volume may cancel itself out here with a Michigan State team that should control the boards but lose the turnover battle. If so, can Iowa simply outshoot the better team?
NCAAW: #60 Seton Hall at #39 Princeton (-6.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Fun! And very big for Princeton. They're currently at +2.2 WAB - on its own, would've had them as a 10 seed last year - with a road game at Belmont Saturday, and a road battle at George Mason looming later this month as their remaining top-100 non-con games. They've done a tremendous job of getting wins however they can. Need to get to Ivy play with two or fewer losses.
#46 Miami FL at #44 Ole Miss (-3), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. This is more like it: a very flawed offense with an excellent defense playing the opposite. A little Wario Game. Miami hung with BYU quite well then smoked Georgetown, which makes Ole Miss's MTE performance (0-2 to Iowa and Utah) look kind of bad. I don't think we know that much about either, though my personal feel is that Ole Miss has to find a way to get stops in a manner they haven't shown so far.
#25 USC (-5) at #86 Oregon, 10 PM ET, FS1. USC has yet to really find it defensively, which should scare people because they're 7-0, get to the line a ton, and are very good from a shot volume perspective (lots of OREBs, few TOs). This could also be highly cathartic on USC's behalf because Oregon has been a house of horrors for the Trojans, a place they're 2-12 in their last 14 tries at.
C Games
NCAAW: #1 UConn (-23) at #69 South Florida, 5 PM ET, ESPN2. USF isn't bad and beat Duke at home recently by double digits, along with a nice neutral site win over Harvard. But...well, it's UConn.
#13 Tennessee (-7) at #71 Syracuse, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Another intriguing entry in the SEC/ACC crossover. Syracuse had the dreaded "played well but went 0-3" outcome that was always possible in the Players Era, though I would also note their performances got increasingly worse with each day. A team that's bad at rebounding playing Tennessee - #2 in OREB%, just went board for board with Kansas and Houston - seems not ideal.
#47 Texas A&M (-2) at #93 Pittsburgh, 7 PM ET, ESPNU. Again: imagine telling yourself this would be an SEC/ACC game 15 years ago. What a tangled web, etc. This one may be the closest game of all of them because I can't find many/any significant advantages for either offense to chase. If either team can find it from three, that may be the difference, but regrettably for viewership, this is more likely to be decided by who gets more free throws and one-shot stops.
#76 Virginia Tech at #89 South Carolina (-2), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Not a game I would really describe as 'for me', though I am sure it's for someone. Hey, if nothing else, Mike Sharavjamts is FINALLY breaking out in year four and looks pretty awesome!
#64 Oklahoma at #39 Wake Forest (-7), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. Imagine telling yourself a decade ago that this would be part of the SEC/ACC Challenge. Wonders never cease. Neither of these teams can guard or will consider guarding for long stretches of time, which makes for a very fun battle but also a "how important is this really" malaise that might arise.
#140 William & Mary at #132 Duquesne (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Two intriguing teams playing fun styles of ball. W&M is up to their highest in-season KenPom rank since November 2018, which speaks to how good of a job Brian Earl is doing.
#2 Purdue (-15) at #118 Rutgers, 8 PM ET, FS1. This Rutgers team is awful, is on track to go 7-24 or so, and will need to find as much money as possible to get into the coaching carousel come March. Purdue also seems to have solved their Rutgers Problem, winning by 28, 18, and 29 the last three tries against them. But...there's always the possibility looming.
#30 Missouri (-2) at #73 Notre Dame, 9 PM ET, ESPNU. For the fourth straight year, I think this Missouri defense is Bad but they have elected to play one of the worst schedules in America, so it may just be team-wide boredom. I think we may find out one way or the other against a Notre Dame team with a dynamite scorer in Markus Burton.
#37 Georgia (-3) at #82 Florida State, 9 PM ET, ACC Network. Get ready to run. In terms of raw possession totals, this game should end up around 78-79 possessions between two offenses among the six fastest in America. Georgia is turning into a computer fave because they smash Q4s, but against the three top-150 opponents they've drawn, the results are less great, sitting at a combined -16 (-5.3 per game) below expectation and 0-3 against the KenPom spread. Can this be their first overperformance?
NCAAW: #89 Charleston at #43 Colorado (-11), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Charleston interests me! 6-1, a road win at top-100 Quinnipiac, and a pair of very intriguing road games incoming: this and Florida State next Sunday. Somehow stealing a win in either of those games would make them seem very legitimate.
#55 Saint Louis (-6) at #136 Loyola Marymount, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. Simply a fun mid-major game, though I have to admit the shine is rapidly coming off of LMU. An awful home loss to Stony Brook on Friday is a really bad sign, and their offense has been openly bad in their last three games.
#101 UC San Diego at #103 Nevada (-4), 10 PM ET, Mountain West Network. Late night capper. UCSD won their MTE and more or less looks like UCSD from 2023-24, who had an incredibly fun offense but didn't have the defense yet to carry them to March. Totally plausible to me that the Big West is a four-horse race.
Wednesday, December 3
A Games
NCAAW: #21 NC State at #9 Oklahoma (-7.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. I love watching NC State for one very simple reason: there are next-to-no free throws in their games. Just 20 or so per game combined, because NC State doesn't get all the way downhill well but has been very good at packing their defense in and forcing lots of threes. I'm curious about the Oklahoma side of this because they're more or less untested since November 10, when they lost a competitive game to UCLA because they didn't make open threes and couldn't get downhill or to the foul line.
#9 Louisville at #36 Arkansas, 7 PM ET, ESPN. Finally, John Calipari gets to play Louisville again! We have all wanted this. This has the feel of a series that should be played more often but isn't because there's no real geographical or historical reason for it. Maybe it's the color combo? Each university having a food tycoon exercise a little too much power?
This is Louisville's third game against real competition and I kinda hope this one meets somewhere in the middle because the Kentucky and Cincinnati games were so vastly different. I've been more impressed with the Cards' offense than their defense in these two affairs, and the Arkansas results against top-100 offenses - 1.14 PPP to Duke, 1.17 to Winthrop, and 1.01 to Michigan State despite MSU shooting 1-14 from deep - have been pretty unimpressive. In those games, Arkansas got rocked on the boards and struggled heavily to defend ball screens, with cutting bigs being a serious issue. That's not great to hear when your opponent has Aly Khalifa, and they can't let this occur here if they hope to get a huge win.
NCAAW: #12 Tennessee (-3) at #32 Stanford, 9:15 PM ET, ESPN2. Tennessee continues a westward swing after losing to UCLA on Sunday in a game I'd best describe as, uh, low on defense. This used to be a great rivalry and I genuinely hope it gets back there one day. This should be a very interesting pace battle, too, as Stanford would prefer for this game to be played south of 75 points. If Tennessee is at 40+ by halftime I would be surprised by a Cardinal victory.
B Games
NCAAW: #31 Virginia at #27 Vanderbilt (-4.5), 5 PM ET, SEC Network. Virginia is a fascinating team, in the sense that they have played seven Q4 opponents, demolished six of them by 20+ points, and lost at home to the seventh and possibly worst of the group. As such, this is now suddenly a needed win to avoid making ACC play very uncomfortable.
NCAAW: #8 Kentucky (-8.5) at #46 Miami FL, 5 PM ET, ESPN2. Kentucky looks utterly insane in terms of interior defense this year, and it's a good sign to me that even though they split their games with Louisville (72-62 win) and Maryland (74-66 loss), neither team ended up better than 40% from two. CBB Analytics claims that, in terms of true rim attempts (4 feet or shorter), only 14% of opponent attempts against UK are layups. That's obviously the best in America.
#26 Clemson at #14 Alabama (-8), 7 PM ET, ESPNU. No team hums along quite like Clemson, who should look 90% different than last year but more or less looks like the same Brad Brownell team I usually see. Brownell used to be known as one of the best defensive coaches in America. I haven't seen that bandied about much lately because of his offense, but just one top-10 offense Clemson has played in the last three seasons (eight in all) has topped 78 points, and it was Alabama in the 2024 Elite Eight in a game they needed to shoot 16-36 from three to win. Just saying!
#53 Northwestern at #27 Wisconsin (-7), 9 PM ET, BTN. Real ball. The Northwestern Question seems to be the same across basically every Northwestern sport: can they produce wins on the margins while slowing the game down to a crawl? This year's team is awful on the boards but never turns it over while forcing the longest possessions (19.5 seconds on average) in America. Wisconsin has been excellent no matter how long their possessions last, but it's interesting to me that on possessions lasting 15+ seconds, 55% of the Badgers' shot attempts are from three. That can open you up to negative shooting variance fast, or it could mean Wisconsin wins this by 16.
#38 Virginia at #40 Texas (-4), 9:15 PM ET, ESPNU. Ryan Odom's first road game with UVA will be an intriguing one against a Texas team whose best home opponent thus far is #330 Lafayette. Therefore: do we know anything about them, other than their ability to score in bunches? Not really. That does mean this should be fun, though.
#29 NC State at #22 Auburn (-5), 9:15 PM ET, ESPN. NC State looks like a team that's simply going to foul way too much, which is a serious problem against an Auburn team that can't shoot very well but can get to the paint, get rebounds, and rack up a lot of foul calls.
#32 UCLA (-1) at #58 Washington, 11 PM ET, BTN. Amongst a few other items, UCLA offers up one concerning trend: an inability to force turnovers in their losses. Against Arizona and Cal, the Bruins combined to force six total steals...which is fewer than any individual win of theirs (lowest is seven steals, against both EWU and Pepperdine). If you're that reliant on forcing turnovers I'm a little concerned. You've gotta have different answers to the same question in this sport.
C Games
NCAAW: #34 Georgia (-2.5) at #56 Florida State, 5 PM ET, ESPNU. Women's half of the UGA/FSU crossover battle. Unfortunately, this FSU team is so bad defensively that I'd be pretty surprised if they end up doing much of anything this year.
NCAAW: #58 Auburn at #54 Syracuse (-3), 5 PM ET, ACC Network. Syracuse is the reverse. Their defense is awesome and one of the most unbelievably aggressive units I've found in WBB...which also means they're usually out of position on rebounds, as Michigan helpfully exploited last Sunday. Auburn is a more extreme version of Syracuse, which means this is probably going to be turnover-heavy and not that fun.
NCAAW: #62 Rhode Island at #80 Saint Joseph's (-0.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. A serious hat tip to 5'9" Ines Debroise of URI, who is putting together quite the resume despite not scoring all that much: a +5.1 DBPM, 20.5% DREB%, 22.8% Assist%, and a 3.9% Steal%. Only nine other players, including names like Sarah Strong and Talaysia Cooper, are pulling off this same four-pack of stats.
#19 Indiana (-9) at #114 Minnesota, 7 PM ET, BTN. Indiana is up to 19th at KenPom, which makes for the first time they've touched the top 20 since February 21, 2023. That team got a 4 seed, and while I'm still not totally sold on IU's collection of talent, it's becoming less nutty to me that this group could do the same. Between this and Louisville three days later we should find out something in terms of legitimacy.
#141 Southern Illinois at #79 High Point (-9), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is a battle of the 'Rons: Cam'Ron Fletcher of High Point and Quel'Ron House of Southern Illinois.
#23 LSU (-8) at #120 Boston College, 7:15 PM ET, ACC Network. Look, I have a feeling that Top 25 LSU is going to age about like Top 15 Pitt did last year. It's still an interesting story if nothing else and gives you something to track in an otherwise uninteresting game.
#110 Richmond at #75 Belmont (-7), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Well, look: you either like fun or you don't. This is fun. Belmont could go absolutely nuts at the rim in this game...if they can get there. Richmond has been fabulous at stunting drives to the basket by simply packing things all the way in, but their actual FG% allowed once you get there is hilarious. Fun battle in that regard.
NCAAW: #82 Montana State at #88 North Dakota State (-1.5), 8 PM ET, CBSSN. This is one of the greatest mid-major battles of the NCAAW season, and each team has a star player that needs way more recognition: Taylee Chirrick for Montana State, Avery Koenen for NDSU. I mean:
STARS. They are stars. Hopefully, they make it to March.
#12 BYU (-18) vs. #130 Cal Baptist, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Finally, BYU has begun to take off after some early sputtering, but how about Cal Baptist? Their schedule stinks, but a +21.5 rebounding margin per 100 against anyone is really impressive. They look like a team worthy of battling Utah Valley for the WAC crown.
#41 SMU at #10 Vanderbilt (-11), 9:15 PM ET, SEC Network. Well...can anyone stop Vanderbilt? Through eight games, their worst offensive performance is an 83-78 win (81 possessions) against Western Kentucky in a game where the non-Duke Miles players shot 14-25 from the free throw line and no one bothered with rebounds. That seemed to get enough attention, because they ran through both VCU and Saint Mary's with ease after. SMU can defend but giving up 1.12 and 1.14 PPP to Murray State and Butler is not a great indicator.
#90 Utah Valley at #48 San Diego State (-9), 10 PM ET, Mountain West Network. It's way too early, etc., etc., but San Diego State cannot afford another stumble. A loss here is a complete fatalization of any remaining at-large chances unless they were to go 17-3 or something in Mountain West play.
Thursday, December 4
A Games
NCAAW: #10 North Carolina at #5 Texas (-11), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. I'm about out of words. I apologize. This year's Courtney Banghart team may be her best yet, with elite two-way turnover margin and an offense functioning beautifully with Ciera Toomey, Indya Nivar, and Nyla Harris running the show. They need all of that to pull off a true road win at a Texas team that looks like a title contender once more and just got done beating UCLA and South Carolina on consecutive days. Until further notice: Texas and UConn in whatever order you'd like.
#34 Utah State (-4) at #95 South Florida, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is plain fun, and I'd call it something as simple as Basketball The Way It Oughta Be.
Ah, memories. USF is a disappointing 4-4 so far, which likely nukes any hope of an at-large case but provides a good buy-low spot against a Utah State team making their third trip to the eastern half of the US in as four weeks. I'm worried about the body blows for USU building up, as in the last three games alone they've won an MTE in Charleston and then had to scrap it out in overtime against a Montana State team that simply outplayed them for large stretches of the game. USU is almost too confident sometimes in their approaches to downhill attacks on defense. They do a good job of shutting down the initial attack but struggle to contain kickouts and cuts from the perimeter, AKA two of the things USF does best.
NCAAW: #4 LSU (-7.5) at #13 Duke, 9 PM ET, ESPN. As fun as Duke's MBB team is, it's how miserable Duke WBB is right now. They're 3-5, have been far and away the most disappointing team in the sport so far, and are shooting 44% 2PT/32% 3PT. They look completely broken offensively, and an outstanding interior defense hasn't been enough to aid a team that simply cannot score enough right now. The one upside: they're going to play an LSU team who has yet to play against a single top-100 opponent. Said LSU team won't shoot 44% from three forever or rebound 59% of their misses forever. Maybe this is the get right game for Kara Lawson and crew.
B Games
NCAAW: #37 Villanova at #47 Georgetown (PK), 7 PM ET, Peacock. Between this and the West Virginia game on Monday, we should learn a lot about how good or not-good Villanova is. I'd like to learn the same with Georgetown, who is 5-0 against teams ranked outside of the top 100 and 0-2 against teams inside.
NCAAW: #44 Clemson at #33 Alabama (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPNU. Alabama's Essence Cody is putting together a bonkers start to the season: 15.6 PPG and 6.3 RPG, yes, but also 1.6 SPG and 2 BPG. Clemson has a budding star of their own in Mia Moore, a former UAB star putting up a great 14.3 PPG/6.9 RPG/4.9 APG slashline. Into this!
NCAAW: #24 Notre Dame at #16 Ole Miss (-4.5), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. My Ole Miss complaint last year was that they were the worst great team or the best good one, as in they beat a lot of good teams but went 0-6 against top-10 competition. This won't be against a top-10 team, but it will be another chance for the Rebels to prove their worth after shooting just 43% 2PT/29% 3PT against top-50 teams last year.
C Games
NCAAW: #40 Florida at #35 Virginia Tech (-4.5), 5 PM ET, ESPN2. This is a battle of two teams that can't shoot: Florida 25.6% from 3, VA Tech 27.8%. I hope it's more watchable than that indicates, because these are two Tournament-y teams.
NCAAW: #2 South Carolina (-13.5) at #30 Louisville, 7 PM ET, ESPN. South Carolina's last loss to a team outside of the Torvik top 10 was March 6, 2022. I...have my doubts.
NCAAW: #48 Utah (-0.5) at #75 Colorado State, 8:30 PM ET, Mountain West Network. Old school Mountain West rivalry, only this will be Big 12/Pac-12 next year. Utah is a unique watch in that they've gone completely small ball. The starting center is wing Reese Ross, who is 6'1", and the average lineup routinely contains two point guards. This has worked much better on defense than you may think!
#171 UC Davis at #100 Hawaii (-9), 11:59 PM ET, ESPN+. Hawaii in Big West home games post-COVID: 26-12, 17-21 ATS...and 23-13-2 t0 the under. For a Hawaii team thoroughly incapable of scoring with any consistency, this makes sense.
Friday, December 5
A Game
#5 Gonzaga vs. #11 Kentucky (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. As mentioned earlier, this was in contention for the A+ Game of the Week but was knocked off the list because it's not being played at Rupp Arena the way it should be. Yes yes, I'm aware Bridgestone Arena is Rupp South in March for the SEC Tournament (or at least generally is when Kentucky fans like the team), but it's still stupid.
Kentucky basically has to go at least 1-1 this week to right the ship somewhat on a rocky non-conference slate where they have no bad losses but also no good wins. They remind me somewhat of how I felt about Illinois last year, a team that smashed the living daylights out of every Chicago State or Little Rock they played but played like the 26th-best team in America against top-50 competition and deservedly got a 6 seed at year's end.
Kentucky typically defends true post-ups quite well but Gonzaga is a different animal entirely, and I've been uninspired by their response to inside-out play like, say, Michigan State presented to them. The offense piece is simple: can Kentucky generate 20+ points in transition and keep up by manner of pure pace? If so, they've got good odds. If not...well, better win the UNC game.
B Game
#72 Cincinnati at #83 Xavier (-1), 7:30 PM ET, TNT. CROSSTOWN SHOOTOUT!!!! LET'S GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. If you're in our Discord, you know this is a gigantic deal, but also, you probably already know how important this is if you're this deep in the article. Cincinnati just lost at home to Eastern Michigan, but Xavier got demolished at home by Santa Clara and has barely played at the level of a top-100 team so far.
Xavier can't score inside, which seems like death against a Cincinnati team with elite rim protection...but then again, Cincinnati can't shoot, which is a problem against a Xavier team that doesn't allow open threes to begin with. After an awful, awful start, Xavier has played much better lately and seems to have found serious shooting prowess with Jovan Milicevic and All Wright.
This is probably going to be a very ugly game, and truly, I wouldn't have it any other way. There will be gigantic pressure on UC to win this game, as they've dropped five of six against Xavier and haven't won at the Cintas Center since the season it first opened (2000-01).
C Games
#174 Quinnipiac at #187 Iona (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. MAAC is BAAC! Iona plays a fun Chaos Ball style and is riding extremely hot (26% 3PT, 66% FT) on opponent shooting. Q-Pac, meanwhile, simply has one of the most physical, fun players in mid-majordom in Amarri Monroe.
#150 South Alabama at #121 ETSU (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Well, if you thought Richie Riley might go Chameleon Mode again, think not. The Jags are allowing 63% of opponent attempts from three, and 77% of opponent field goals are assisted. Both would be record-breaking numbers in college basketball if they held. They've got to find a way to finish top two in the Sun Belt this year to have the best chance possible at taking their wacky show on the road as a 14 or 15 seed. The world in which they're Arizona's 15-seed sparring partner is a beautiful one. Also, this article is already way too long, but trust me on this: ETSU's defense rocks. Really, really good unit.
#73 Notre Dame at #50 TCU (-7), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. TCU is this year's I Have No Idea What to Make of [Team]™ that pops up every year. It's a great discussion piece. Boy, what will [team] do next? TCU actually has a pretty easy indicator to track: turnover margin. Since 2021-22, they're 66-27 when they win the TO battle...and 19-30 when they don't.
