Week 2 Watchlist: Flying Somewhere in the Stratosphere

The Watchlist Tune o' the Week

What an opening week, huh? A quick review if you got lost:

• All of Florida (Arizona), St. John's (Alabama), Arkansas (Michigan State), and Kansas (North Carolina) lost games. None of those are bad losses or even surprises! But they did happen.
• Two of the biggest upsets we'll see all year occurred: TCU (-20.5) losing to New Orleans and Loyola Chicago (-21.5) losing to Mercyhurst.
• A bunch of other games happened. Sorry, I had COVID last week and forgot about some of it.

More importantly, the scoring explosion we've seen the last year or two is becoming more serious than ever. At the time of writing, the first week of play had produced:

• 105.9 points scored per 100 possessions (new record for first seven days)
• 51.6% 2PT% (new record)
• 71% FT% (new record)
• 18.1% TO% (ties the record)
• 31.5% OREB% (highest since 2013-14)
• 53% Assist% (highest since 2014-15)
• 71.9 possessions a game (highest since 2018-19)
• 76.4 PPG (highest since at least 1996, likely further back)
• 78.9 PPG on Saturday, November 8, the highest-scoring individual day of basketball recorded in at least 30 years

What we're looking at is the most offense-friendly basketball the collegiate level has possibly ever seen. This is despite pedestrian 3PT shooting (32.5%, which is 0.6% lower than last year) and a minor drop in eFG% (50.5% to 50.4%) overall. To what do we owe the honor of this watchability upgrade to?

Well. Free Throw Rate - the number of free throw attempts per 100 field goal attempts - is up to 37.9 through one week. That's the highest we've seen since 2015-16, which, when paired with record-setting FT%, makes sense as to why the scoring uptick continues. The average team is committing around 19.5 fouls per game, up from 18.3 at this time last year.

Now, this is moderately surprising to see, as there's not been a huge wave of Points of Emphasis stuff surrounding hand-checking on the perimeter (something I've seen called a little more frequently). I don't think more FIBA/NBA-like continuation is the culprit either. What about an alternate question: are teams just better at getting fouled now?

I bring this up because, through a week, the median Division I share of field goals attempted at the rim (per Torvik) is 39.2%. Last year's was 38.2%, and 2023-24's 36.8%. We know that more fouls occur at the rim than anywhere else, so this makes sense.

Will we know exactly what is driving this surge of a sort in foul count by next week? Maybe, maybe not. But what we do know is that a variety of factors - officiating included! - is leading college basketball down a path of touching collective point totals and nightly scoring averages it hasn't seen with consistency in over 30 years.

May it long continue. (Ken never updated this graphic, but per his site and my manual calculation of all 59 games, Saturday's games produced 78.9 PPG. If that's accurate, it would demolish the old record...which was set last Monday. Uncharted waters, friends.)

PROGRAMMING NOTE! We are experimenting with something new here at Basket Under Review. This weekend, we'll upload a Weekend Watchlist with commentary from myself, Jordan Majewski, Matthew Winick, and others on the BUR team about the best 20 or so games of the weekend. That allows us to keep this post from being too big and gives us something to post on Saturday morning. We hope you like it.

• A Games are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ Game every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
• B Games are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
• C Games are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through. I’ll give these a sentence at most.
• We hope to never get to D or F Games this season. No need.

All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. All lines for women's games are via Bart Torvik.

Monday, November 10

A Games

#29 Mississippi State vs. #12 Iowa State (-3), 8 PM ET, ESPNU. This is on a Monday night where the football game is Eagles/Packers, so predictably, ESPN is using all of ABC/ESPN/2 to air either the game itself or an alternative broadcast of the game. That's how a matchup of two top-30 teams on an otherwise barren night of sports ends up on the U. Maybe I should be thankful ESPN's programming team remembered you can put live college basketball on this channel?

Anyway, how Iowa State chooses to defend Josh Hubbard/how Mississippi State chooses to let Tamin Lipsey play ball will determine this one. Lipsey, when fully healthy, is nearly unmatched in CBB as an on-ball defender...but Lipsey's health is not a certainty, as he missed both exhibition games and was fourth in minutes for ISU last week. Assuming he gets up to 30 minutes or better, this should be a knock-down, drag-out fight. My advice: maybe give this one a couple media timeouts to settle in, then focus.

NCAAW: #7 Oklahoma vs. #2 UCLA (-7.5), 10:30 PM ET, FS1. This was runner-up for A+ Game of the Week, FWIW. Really looking forward to this, even if I'm admittedly going to see most of it the next morning. Beers vs. Betts is an electric post matchup, possibly the best post matchup provided by college basketball this season. If they cancel each other out, this then becomes about which team is better at controlling pace. Oklahoma wants shots early in the clock through hard cuts and drives to the lane, freeing up shooters for a litany of deep balls. UCLA isn't slow by any means, but a more half-court, screen-based game leans their way, especially because they should have the shot volume advantage.

B Games

None. Thin slate.

C Games

#121 UNC Wilmington at #136 Kent State (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. It's two games in and therefore Not Real Yet, but Kent State has lost 103-97 (with the aid of overtime) and won 110-102. Some of that is noise (opponents shooting 47% from three), but this might be your best bet for MAC watchability this year.

#163 Western Kentucky at #189 Eastern Kentucky (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is really only on here because it's an in-state rivalry - the Battle of the Bluegrass in football - but this also represents EKU's best shot at a win in some time. WKU has won the last five in this renewed rivalry (dormant for most of 1995-2014), and EKU's most recent wins were in 2016 and 1987. WKU's 25-3 in the last 28 in this rivalry, but for once, the Colonels are favored. The result could say a lot about where each program stands.

#149 Little Rock (-1) at #238 Milwaukee, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Little Rock's first D1 game of the year will be Milwaukee's third, thanks to some...creative scheduling. Fun fact: said creative scheduling gave UALR a home game against Arkansas Baptist, their only home game between now and December 6.

#99 Santa Clara at #89 Xavier (-5), 8:30 PM ET, FS1. I would argue it's a bad sign for your 2025-26 fortunes if, through two games, you are 2-0 and have dropped 28 spots in KenPom. Xavier's building for next year anyway, but this might be a little more next year than even I anticipated.

Tuesday, November 11

The A+ Game of the Week

#1 Kentucky at #11 Louisville (-1), 8 PM ET, ESPN. Well, be honest with yourself: could it really be anything else? A rivalry, one played at true home venues, with two of the best editions of these schools we've seen in the last 10-15 years.

Now, it's worth noting that Kentucky likely will not be at full strength. Jaland Lowe did play against Valparaiso after a preseason injury, but playing a run-and-gun Louisville is a different task entirely, and I'm curious how much different his role will be with this UK side versus last year against Louisville with Pitt, when he took on 38% and 32% usage rates in losses. (Unsurprisingly, he had major turnover issues in both games.)

I don't think we know a ton about either team yet - four combined smashings of Q4 opposition is roughly as useful as practice stats - but it's maybe worth noting that Kentucky's TO% of 18.6% would've been their second-highest for the entirely of last year's non-con slate. Plus, through four games (two exhibition + two real), they're shooting 26.7% from deep. It feels like Louisville is more finalized right now, though that doesn't mean Kentucky won't end up the better team eventually.

A Game

#14 Texas Tech at #3 Illinois (-6), 8:30 PM ET, FS1. This game is fascinating for numerous reasons. For one, this is apparently the first matchup of these two teams ever? More importantly, both of these teams scored a ton of points against Q4 opposition in opening week, yet Texas Tech did it without being anywhere near full strength. It's no guarantee TTU is at full strength here either, as the status of both Luke Bambgoye and Josiah Moseley seem TBD. Highly interested to see just how flawless the Illinois offense actually is or if they simply steamrolled two overwhelmed opponents. No matter what: FUN!

B Games

#64 Wake Forest vs. #9 Michigan (-11), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. Similar to the Xavier prompt explored earlier, it might be a bad sign if you're 2-0, your opponents have shot 24% from three, and you hold a +16.4 rebound margin advantage per 100...but you've dropped 14 spots at KenPom because you couldn't really achieve escape velocity versus American or Morehead State. I doubt Michigan is nearly as perfect as they looked against Oakland, but a Wake roster with interior scoring and size issues against Michigan of all teams might not be great.

#59 Dayton at #41 Cincinnati (-6), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. As an idiot Tennessean, I did look to see if this should-be rivalry is actually one. It's not, but if you're curious, this is the second search result for "Dayton Cincinnati rivalry."

Noted? Anyway, this might be the rare DOUBLE MUST-WIN, as Dayton needs either this or the Marquette game in nine days to build a good at-large case, while Cincinnati has Louisville lurking on the 21st. Through all of two games against likely Q4s, Cincinnati's offense looks way more spread out than I expected and has almost completely eliminated midrange twos from their shot diet. We'll see if that holds against real competition.

#54 Memphis at #27 Ole Miss (-8), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. Memphis shot 14-26 from the free throw line, 41% from two, and somehow still defeated a San Francisco team I think of as a bubble contender. Good result! Ole Miss may suffer a little culture shock to open this game given their first two games being versus #280 and #353.

#44 Creighton at #8 Gonzaga (-10), 10 PM ET, ESPN. As usual, it's one game, so take little from it. But! Creighton was more or less as droppy in drop coverage as last year against South Dakota. I bring this up because for a few years now, the one thing that seems to be Gonzaga's bugaboo on offense (against teams that run it well, anyway) is drop coverage. They got got by all of West Virginia, UConn, Santa Clara, and Saint Mary's (twice) last year, four drop-first teams. Could be nothing, could be something.

C Games

NCAAW: #37 Clemson at #1 South Carolina (-22), 6 PM ET, ESPN2. It's against two Q4s, so grains of salt are highly necessary, but Clemson's offense looks legitimately good thus far and their strategy of filling their roster with approximately 12 combo guards may yet work out. They probably need 15 threes to win this one, though.

#218 Appalachian State at #35 Ohio State (-20), 6:30 PM ET, BTN+. This looks like another year where App State has a horrendous offense that kneecaps their overall potential. Defense will end up being good, though.

NCAAW: #78 Cincinnati at #83 Saint Joseph's (-1.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Here is a very bad sign for Cincinnati in a must-win season for Katrina Merriweather: shooting 55% from 3 and 77% from the free throw line at home to Lehigh and losing. They can still recover, but following that up with a tight road loss to Penn State is not inspiring.

#151 Radford at #23 North Carolina (-19), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. First useful test of a Radford team with a hilarious amount of money spent on a Big South roster and how well that whole thing scales up against a top-30 opponent.

#78 Florida State at #5 Florida (-17), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Through two games, Florida is shooting 22% from three. That won't hold, but I think we can safely guess this roster won't be quite as elite a shooting roster as 2024-25, which we knew anyway.

#251 Norfolk State at #204 Old Dominion (-4), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Both teams have one game each of D1 data, which means we basically know nothing...but Old Dominion really needs this one. You don't want to start out 1-2 with road fixtures against George Washington and Xavier looming, even if all you care about is conference play.

NCAAW: #53 Marquette at #19 Minnesota (-10.5), 8 PM ET, BTN+. It's two games against weak opposition, but Minnesota is running up gigantic shot volume edges even with opponent adjustments and appears to have something special in freshman guard Makena Christian (a hilarious 155 ORtg on 25% Usage%). I'm intrigued!

#125 Murray State at #49 SMU (-13), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. I was fairly impressed by Murray State's neutral site win over Omaha on opening night despite a pretty ugly shooting day. SMU has played with its food against two Q4s (+5 against Tarleton State with 8 minutes left, won by 20; tied with TAMU-CC with 4 minutes left, won by 11), and if they do that here, they're gonna lose.

#160 Ohio at #42 Saint Mary's (-16), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. Again, can we give a little love to Saint Mary's first five home games? St. Thomas, Chattanooga, Ohio, North Texas, and Arkansas State. That's a hell of a home slate! You're getting your money's worth as a season ticket holder, because four of those five teams are either favorites or co-favorites to win their respective leagues.

Wednesday, November 12

B Games

NCAAW: #39 Princeton at #41 Villanova (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is Game Two of Princeton's immense three-game run to begin the season: at Georgia Tech (a win), Villanova, and Maryland. Again: 1-2 in that and you're in okay shape. 2-1 and you're an odds-on favorite to be an at-large team.

NCAAW: #52 Colorado at #31 Louisville (-7.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. I thought Louisville acquitted themselves well enough against UConn, but as expected, their rim protection is pretty dire. Can Colorado's relentless and chaotic Anaëlle Dutat make that an issue in this game? Possibly.

#63 Minnesota at #37 Missouri (-7), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. No shocker here, but we're in for another year of Missouri's defense probably being bad. Giving up a 61% hit rate on twos to SEMO is horrific, but not as bad as having an opponent-adjusted 33.2% OREB% allowed right now against Q4s, which was 39% prior to playing rebound-averse VMI.

Minnesota may not take advantage of the latter at all, but the former is right up Medved's alley.

C Games

NCAAW: #99 Norfolk State at #6 Duke (-26), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Watching Duke WBB helps me understand why so many of you hated those Virginia MBB teams. Please just put the basketball in the basket! PLEASE!!!!! It's not that hard!

#117 Saint Joseph's at #66 Virginia Tech (-10), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Virginia Tech cemented themselves on the Highly Watchable List on Saturday with their electric overtime win over Providence. I never doubted you, Mike Young!

#146 Siena at #111 St. Bonaventure (-7), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Again, two games. But Siena smoking Bryant at home and Brown on the road despite shooting 20% from three is more impressive than you'd think. I've got my eye on Gerry McNamara and crew, especially D2 up-transfer Tasman Goodrick.

#149 Little Rock at #62 Marquette (-14), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. In the offseason, I was asked by a staff (not Marquette's) to compile a list of Q3/Q4-level teams you do and don't want to schedule in non-conference play. Little Rock was on the don't list, as they've won twice in the last calendar year alone as 10+ point underdogs. Anyway.

NCAAW: #96 Creighton at #16 Nebraska (-21), 9 PM ET, FS1. Ugly first week for Creighton, as they got smoked at home on opening night by South Dakota State. Their reward: traveling to Lincoln for the yearly rivalry battle where they're a huge underdog.

#78 North Texas (-3) at #140 Oregon State, 9:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Oregon State's first two results are...something. 2-0, yes, but a combined +5 in point differential after playing #234 and #127, despite those two teams shooting 24% from deep and getting twice as many free throws.

#162 South Dakota State at #53 Oregon (-15), 9:30 PM ET, Peacock. Yes, I am officially Worried About Oregon. Their grade sans Shelstad is technically incomplete, but so far I've seen some really worrying turnover issues and two-way rebounding outings against future Q3/Q4s.

Thursday, November 13

A Games

#7 Purdue at #17 Alabama (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. (Bill Simmons voice) Can we all drink a little Settle Down Juice about Purdue? Can we just take a second here? It's one game! You know what, House? I want to send out some Settle Down Juice to Alabama, too. It's one game! (This is before they enter the Ringer 107 section, which I only 70% understand, and my brain bleeds out.)

Anyway, this should rock. My NFL-poisoned brain believes this is a Scheduled Loss for Purdue, much like playing at Kansas City on SNF usually is, but Oats-era Alabama has kind of been...weak? as a small home favorite. Since 2020, the Tide are 5-11 ATS and 10-6 straight-up when 1-6 point home faves, including home losses last year to Florida and Auburn. Two major questions linger, though: is Trey Kaufman-Renn ready to play, and can Purdue overcome a mild athleticism gap to generate better rim protection than they've shown?

NCAAW: #14 North Carolina vs. #2 UCLA (-10), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. I think UCLA has a huge, huge scoring edge in this game, because what I've seen from UNC offensively so far (particularly on the perimeter) has not been inspiring. And yet: UNC is crazy physical, just as elite on the boards as UCLA, with rim protection that could potentially be top-5 in the sport. There is a path. If Ciera Toomey and Nyla Harris can own this game from a physicality perspective and force UCLA back a bit, it could be played on the Heels' terms.

B Games

#59 Pittsburgh at #79 West Virginia (-3), 6 PM ET, FS1. BACKYARD BRAWL! God, I love it. This is not one of the better editions of said rivalry, but it exists and it got a grade bump because of it. I expect this to be low and slow, but Damarco Minor vs. Honor Huff is the matchup of this game for me. Feels like if Huff hits 4+ threes, this is a Mountaineer victory...unless Minor matches!

NCAAW: #66 South Florida vs. #45 Fairfield (-3.5), 6 PM ET, ESPNU. Fairfield's road stomping of Villanova last Wednesday impressed me a lot. They were the more physical team, better at getting downhill, and took better shots. We'll see how this goes but there's a chance they could be a wagon offensively.

NCAAW: #61 Belmont at #9 Tennessee (-17), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Belmont acquitted themselves well against Oklahoma, keeping it closer longer than anticipated. Against basically a carbon copy in Tennessee, I wonder if the same thing might happen.

C Games

NCAAW: #70 Rhode Island vs. #84 Rutgers (PK), 11 AM ET, BTN+. Morning hoops between two decent teams. Rhode Island may have an amazing defense on their hands.

NCAAW: #71 SMU at #33 Texas Tech (-9.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Texas Tech is an early riser in the Possibly Better Than Anticipated rankings. A 27-point beatdown of a good UTSA team is highly impressive indeed. Now, can you do it against an SMU team with strong perimeter defense, if not much else?

#139 Loyola Chicago at #109 Wichita State (-6), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Drew Valentine, my man, you gotta figure it out. That was an awful opening week. Wichita, meanwhile...possibly not bad?

#82 California at #56 Kansas State (-7), 9 PM ET, CBSSN. My offseason optimism for Cal sounded strange, but let me note that I am capital-I Impressed by posting 1.15 PPP in their wins last week despite shooting 23% from deep.

Good sign. Kansas State, meanwhile...well, you're not gonna shoot 56% from three forever, fellas. And stop turning it over so much.

Friday, November 14

A Games

D3: #6 Alabama Huntsville at #1 Nova Southeastern (-4.5), 5 PM ET, streaming. Good news: this is NOT on Flo Sports. Other good news: these were two of the four best D2 teams last year, and more importantly, two of the five most efficient offenses in the entire sport (Nova SE #1, UAH #5). Two elite shooting rosters. Get in on this one early.

NCAAW: #6 Duke (-8.5) vs. #24 West Virginia, 7 PM ET, ESPNU. This may be down a tier in terms of pure watchability, as Duke and WVU both have outstanding defenses and wobbly offenses. Still, it's hard to turn down a high-level game between two top-25 teams, both of which are wildly aggressive up top.

#10 Arizona (-2) at #31 UCLA, 10 PM ET, Peacock. Yes yes, not a real road game, it's in LA or LA-adjacent, whatever. This Arizona team is receiving all the steam in the world after defeating Florida, while UCLA has looked lackadaisical at best through two Q3/Q4 home games. It sets up perfectly for...you guessed it, a surprise UCLA win that reinforces We Know Nothing.

B Games

#84 High Point at #106 UAB (-1), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. This game should be in the C Section, but it's elevated for one huge reason: this is the only game left on High Point's schedule that they're an underdog in. This is due to an abhorrent schedule - par for the course - but if they can accomplish 30-0, you tip the cap and move on. Kinda hope they do it!

#9 Michigan (-8) at #88 TCU, 9 PM ET, ESPN2. I'm willing to extend some grace to TCU. Their loss to New Orleans is obviously horrendous, but the odds of repeating a 3-27 outing from deep aren't high, and they were well ahead in shot volume/fouls/most other stats. Now, if they lose at home to Lamar tonight this tune will change very quickly.

NCAAW: #28 Baylor (-4.5) at #55 UNLV, 9:30 PM ET, CBSSN. Both of these teams shot horrifically in their opening game, which is probably an aberration but you never know. Every Lindy La Rocque team ever is impeccably mistake-free on offense, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

#78 North Texas at #41 Saint Mary's (-7), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. In the olden times, this would be a contender for slowest game of the season, but North Texas did play a 76-possession game against a D2...so maybe not? A weird note to go with the Gonzaga one earlier is that Saint Mary's also seems to have their worst offensive performances against strong drop coverages, which isn't what Daniyal Robinson ran at Cleveland State but has been used more frequently so far at UNT.

#8 Gonzaga (-9) at #75 Arizona State, 11 PM ET, ESPN2. ASU gave Gonzaga hell last year in a tight road loss, but it's worth noting that happened before 1) the largely ineffective Dusty Stromer was yeeted from the rotation; 2) sans best perimeter defender Innocenti. The Zags looked far more sound defensively against Oklahoma and demolished them on the boards, so not expecting a similar encouraging result for Bobby Hurley this time out.

C Games

#165 Furman at #103 Northern Iowa (-10), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Furman theory: get in while you can buy low. They had to completely redo their backcourt and it looks a mess right now, which means they're probably losing this game, but by mid-December things should look much better. I still feel good about them in the SoCon.

NCAAW: #62 Georgetown at #60 George Mason (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. I'm a simple person: I like when mid-majors build at-large resumes. George Mason is doing a very strange form of this by losing at Temple in a game they should've won, then following that up by demolishing James Madison on the road. As such, I have no idea what to make of them, but a win here helps them build that resume out further.

#123 Illinois State at #22 USC (-15), 7:30 PM ET, Peacock. We won't have any useful data on USC until this game happens, but we do know Illinois State played Ohio and the Bobcats went right at their nonexistent rim protection wire-to-wire.

#81 UCF at #45 Texas A&M (-7), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Return game for UCF after an opening-week upset of the Aggies last year. I have great news if you like watchability: the KenPom total for this is 167. I have greater news if you like watchability: based on opening week alone, Torvik would set the total for this at 175.5. Neither of these teams can defend.

#89 Xavier at #39 Iowa (-10), 8 PM ET, FS1. Xavier is in the C Section until further notice. Neither a fun nor watchable team at the moment. Sorry, Iowa. Also, Trilly may see this and ask me to stop calling it the C Section.

#51 Northwestern (-2) at #92 DePaul, 8:30 PM ET, TruTV. I will be at this game! The joys of having a father who went to Michigan who I am taking to the game at Wrigley on Saturday. If you're at either of these things, please say hello. This is a secretly fun game between two defenses that look awesome at rim protection and two offenses whose main skill is getting to the rim.

#90 Georgia Tech at #32 Georgia (-12), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. Probably not a great sign that these teams have a common opponent - UMES - and Georgia defeated them by 65 while Tech had to go to overtime to win. The favorite in this game is 20-7 since 1997, FWIW.

#71 Providence (-1) at #102 Colorado, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Providence, again, has to win this. Has to. They blew a great chance against Virginia Tech but I think that's excusable behind a potential once-in-a-decade heater from Neo Avdalas. Lose this and you're 0-2 in meaningful games on a non-con slate with all of four currently scheduled.

#116 Troy at #129 Loyola Marymount (-1), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. I have a concept: this is a new rivalry played every year, paying homage to the two truest forms of the run-and-gun offense popularized in the 1980s/early 1990s. You call it the Maestri-Westphal Trophy. You can even call this rivalry Troyola. I'm well aware those days are long gone for each, but hell, we've had dumber ideas for rivalries, no?

#48 Washington (-10) at #175 Washington State, 11 PM ET, ESPN+. Here is an actual rivalry. Loyal followers of my writing know I'm a David Riley superfan, so it brings me no joy to report that this year's WSU is utterly horrific on defense. He typically ties it together come January, but this is November.