The Watchlist Tune o' the Week

Alright. Alright! Here we go. One more week, then it's go time for everybody. We've got a big week planned here.

Before we get to the Watchlist, I have a human matter: prior colleague, subscriber, Friend of the Site, and friend in real life Wes Rucker passed away last week in a tragic car accident on the Interstate in Knoxville. He leaves behind a wife, a four-year old son, and a daughter that will be born in two months. It is a horrible, inexplicable thing, but I have seen the best of humanity in recent days, raising nearly $700K at the time of writing for Wes's family. I do not believe there can or should be a limit on these things, and if you are able to, please donate. To borrow terminology from our friends Matt and Gary, there are always more of Us than we think. That applies everywhere in life, I've come to find out.

Also, boy, did this make me smile when I needed it. Sports are good.

Onto the Watchlist.

  • A Games are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ Game every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
  • B Games are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
  • C Games are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through.
  • We hope to never get to D or F Games this season. No need.

All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. All lines for women's games are via Bart Torvik.

Monday, February 23

A Game

#6 Houston (-1) at #19 Kansas, 9 PM ET, ESPN. You've already seen the data, but here's the data. Might as well hammer in a point one more time.

Of the two results on Saturday, I was kinda more surprised that Houston couldn't hold serve in an obvious plus spot at home against Arizona, though I will note once more I don't think Houston is going to shoot as poorly as they did again this year. Kansas, meanwhile, is 2009-10 Ohio State reincarnated with a more mercurial and better star player. That Ohio State team nearly lost by double digits to 15-17 Michigan. At least in Kansas's defense, Cincinnati has been playing like a Tournament team for two months.

Everyone remembers the Houston comeback last year, but fewer remember that Houston is 3-1 in this series since it began and every single game has been wildly different than the one before it. As such: no great idea of what to expect here, people! But I can hazard a guess.

Assuming Peterson is something resembling a full go and doesn't push a giant QUIT NOW button with 14 minutes to go and a 6-point lead, Kansas can produce points the way they've always produced points against Houston: the short roll to the screener, almost certainly Flory Bidunga. Bidunga's improvement as a passer has opened things up nicely for KU this year when Peterson's been on the bench. This also strikes me as a potential big game for Bryson Tiller for similar reasons.

However, this isn't quite the same Houston defense of previous years anyway. They're a bit more susceptible on the boards and in transition than usual. The Cougars have to win the rebounding battle, preferably by a lot, against a Kansas team that isn't good at rebounding. On the other end I do think Kansas may potentially have problems; this is a Houston offense that doesn't really need the rim, and the type of shots Kansas allows are the ones Houston seems extremely comfortable taking. My target here would be 21.5: if Kingston Flemings goes over that point total, I like the Coogs. If not, Big Monday strikes again.

B Game

#15 Louisville (-1) at #30 North Carolina, 7 PM ET, ESPN. This is not that important in terms of the ACC title race, but this is super-important for the ACC double bye. Five teams are 10-4, 10-5, or 9-5, and only two of them can get a top-four seeding. That makes this a functional eliminator, given the 9-5 status of each. I keep hearing about the hallowed Pat Kelsey Versus a Top 25 Team thing, and...well, yeah. They're 1-10 with the lone win being at home against Clemson last year. This qualifies to me as a top-25 game given it's on the road (playing #30 on the road is roughly equivalent to playing #22 or #23 on a neutral), so until Pat pulls one of these off, it's going to remain a topic. After all, in the NCAA Tournament, you're near-guaranteed to play a top-25 team from the Round of 32 onward.

C Games

NCAAW: #58 Kansas State at #35 Baylor (-9), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. As I've mentioned before, the NCAA WBB Selection Committee has a very absurd list of criteria:

This reads like 1987 to me, but the good news is that this year, they've added WAB to the pile. This would be excellent news for Baylor, who has bad metrics but ranks 18th in WAB. Given the miniscule gap to the top 16 (basically a quarter of a win), Baylor is pretty close to being an 8 seed in 4 seed's clothing.

#188 New Orleans at #89 Stephen F. Austin (-11), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. My understanding via math is that SFA locks up no less than a share of the Southland regular season title with a win here. Fun fact: we have a preview of the Southland semifinals, with 4 playing 1 here...

#130 UTRGV at #61 McNeese (-8), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. ...and 3 at 2 here. UTRGV is well off the pace of McNeese, and McNeese has yet to lose a game at home all year, but you never know. Plus, a McNeese loss and an SFA win ends the conference title race.

Tuesday, February 24

A Game

#25 NC State at #18 Virginia (-6), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. It's not the prettiest A Game in history, but hey, this one is meaningful and features two NCAA Tournament teams.

Virginia put the hammer down on NCSU just after NYD and did a tremendous job of forcing what may be NCSU's worst shot quality of the entire season. NCSU was forced to default for a lot of shots in the 10-20 foot range thanks to UVA's defensive structure, and drop coverage in general has proven to be a Wolfpack bugaboo this year. There's just not a great movement shooter on the roster, though Darrion Williams comes closest and can shoot them out of a jam. Plus, Virginia's lone loss at home this year came to a UNC team that had a fairly unrepeatable 45% day from 3, including three huge ones in the final few minutes to swing the result.

However...I'll admit some Virginia suspicion. Since that UNC loss, they're 8-0 but just 23rd at Torvik. Their +5.9% 3PT% delta is one of the largest in the sport. Per TeamRankings, they've got about three more wins than they should, based on their performance to date. If this is the night NC State hits shots and UVA doesn't...

B Games

NCAAW: #82 Troy at #96 Arkansas State (-0.5), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. As mentioned, true Ball Knowers should be well aware of the insanity that is the women's Sun Belt Conference. Five teams at 14-2, 13-3, or 13-4, all five inside the top 100 of the NET. It's like if this year's A-10 had a great conference title race. This is 14-2 at 13-3, and if Troy wins here, they can functionally lock up the all-important quintuple bye to the Sun Belt semifinals thanks to the ladder format. If Arkansas State wins...buddy, I have no idea.

#46 Cincinnati at #16 Texas Tech (-11), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. I have a piece on Cincinnati and UCF coming in the midweek, so watch for that. All I'll note: since re-instating Jizzle James on December 17, Cincinnati has played like the 27th-best team in the entire country. That's offered their usual top-10 defense, but the surprising piece is a top-90 offense that is...well, acceptably bad? It's still bad, but not offensively so. I still do not believe Cincy's making this year's Tournament unless they win out in the regular season, which...is perhaps not unrealistic?

#24 Saint Louis (-6) at #86 Dayton, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. As pointed out by Friend of the Site Gavin, the worst thing you can do is believe at halftime of a game you've got Saint Louis pinned to the mat:

Strangely, the reverse trend has existed away from home this year for SLU. Per Hoop-Explorer, the Billikens are +23.7 per 100 in first halves away from home...and +7.6 per 100 in the second half. I would argue some of this has at least something to do with quality of opponent, but I am giving you permission to check the score of this game at halftime. If Dayton is losing a tight one or even leads, turn it on. If this is SLU +11 or something at the break, forget about it.

#34 Auburn (-1) at #58 Oklahoma, 9 PM ET, ESPNU. I'm happy I looked those numbers up for SLU, by the way, because hear these out about Auburn. Away from home, in first halves, they are -17.5 per 100 possessions. After halftime: +2 per 100. Why? Well, it helps when you go from -12.5% 3PT% in the first half to -0.5% after halftime. I am generally intrigued by Oklahoma these days as a chaos option - they're putting up 55% 2PT/40% 3PT shooting splits over the last month - but this comes with an extreme -10.5 rebounding margin per 100. Wait to develop an opinion on this one until midway through the second half

#39 Miami FL (-3) at #71 Florida State, 9 PM ET, ACC Network. Florida State is this month's Hot New Thing, because they have been playing reasonably well as of late. Part of this is the old fan adage of "play the good players" actually being true. Since FSU finally narrowed down to an eight-man rotation a month ago after playing ten men for two months, they're a top-40 team. There's no obvious shooting regression or anything at play, either; they're just playing quite a bit better than they were. I don't totally buy the top-40 thing but if their true level of play was Virginia Tech's (56th), that would make sense.

#14 Tennessee (-5) at #52 Missouri, 9 PM ET, SEC Network. As is my standard, I refuse to believe a Missouri team is any good until March. They are 8-6 in the SEC and have played like a top-50 team since conference play began after playing like a top-75 one outside of conference play. This is obviously not nothing, but if you just said "what would the spread of this game be since conference play began," it would still be Tennessee -2.5 at Torvik. Shortened spread, sure, but this is the same Mizzou team that has allowed north of 1 PPP to every single top-50 team it's played and has allowed 1.08+ PPP in its last eight games against top-50 competition. This Tennessee defense isn't the defense of previous years, but this is also one of the two or three best offenses of the Rick Barnes era.

#43 New Mexico at #67 Nevada (-1), 11 PM ET, CBSSN. Thanks to the Mountain West developing a sudden allergy to winning games they should win, Nevada is suddenly back in contention for a top-four finish after defeating Utah State on Saturday. New Mexico is projected to finish 44th in WAB right now, which puts them squarely on the cutline come Selection Sunday. My opinion is that a 3-1 finish, including a win here, is probably enough to get them to Dayton. Here's hoping.

C Games

#84 Miami (OH) (-8) at #241 Eastern Michigan, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Every Miami game will be listed until they lose, and at this point, I'm not sure they're going to. Now up to a 39% chance of getting it done, per KenPom, with this and the Ohio game on March 6 as their best shots at a loss.

#59 West Virginia at #73 Oklahoma State (-3), 7 PM ET, CBSSN. This is a bubble eliminator game: WVU drops to 4% to make the field with a loss, while Oklahoma State's already-extremely-thin odds fall to a dead 0%. As such: extreme two-way desperation usually leads to an entertaining and often funny outcome.

#31 Kentucky (-6) at #92 South Carolina, 7 PM ET, SEC Network. I still refuse to believe the BBN narrative that "Kentucky can miss the NCAA Tournament." The most reactionary fanbase in America has suffered three losses in a row, which means prime freakout time as stirred by certain individuals working at KSR. Now, to take a big sip of coffee and look at the remaining schedule:

Oh. Oh no.

In all seriousness, even if UK goes 1-3 the rest of the way with this as the lone win, they'd still finish with a WAB around 40th. 0-4 invites the true disaster option, but I have a hard time imagining Kentucky going 0-4. What they'll do in the Tournament as an 8 or 9 seed is the real question.

#127 Bradley at #102 UIC (-4), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Thanks to what I'll charitably call a collapse by the entire Missouri Valley, Bradley can get closer to wrapping up a second-place finish in the MVC with a win here. This does matter a little thanks to the MVC's quality this year. Your seventh-place finisher is most likely Valpo, who is 20 spots off the pace of any of the top six at KenPom. The problem, obviously, is that UIC is straight-up better.

#72 Minnesota at #1 Michigan (-22), 8:30 PM ET, BTN. I guess we'll see how mad Michigan is?

#3 Arizona (-12) at #48 Baylor, 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Don't get mad at me; I just think it's unlikely Houston is going to shoot as poorly as they did for as long as they did again this season. As such, Arizona's probably due a better opponent shooting performance, but that's the only sell I can come up with here against a Baylor team with an 0-8 record against top-25 competition.

NCAAW: #57 Utah at #37 Colorado (-7.5), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Colorado is probably on the good side of the NCAA Tournament bubble, but a win here would make them feel a bit safer. Meanwhile, Utah is in serious danger of finishing in the bottom half of the Big 12 standings, which means they'd probably have to win three Big 12 Tournament games to have a real chance at an at-large bid.

#49 UCF at #21 BYU (-11), 11 PM ET, ESPN2. BYU's home win over Iowa State has set up a very interesting standings scenario centered around this game. These two are both 8-6 and tied for sixth; Cincinnati, TCU, and West Virginia are all tied for 7-7. Two of those five are required to play on Big 12 Tuesday for the men's bracket. Which two will it be? My best guess is TCU and Cincinnati, but it's anyone's game.

#57 USC at #42 UCLA (-7), 11 PM ET, FS1. I think USC has finally played their way to the wrong side of the bubble, and it's been a long time coming. The Rodney Rice injury did kill this team. Since Maui, USC ranks 63rd at Torvik with the 131st-ranked offense, shooting 30% from deep and turning it over on over 18% of possessions. I'm still pro-Muss as a basketball coach but this will go down as an inarguable misfire.

Wednesday, February 25

A Games

#22 St. John's at #11 UConn (-6), 7 PM ET, Peacock. Here it is: after all that has happened, UConn has to win this game to have a chance at winning the Big East. A St. John's sweep ends the race right there, and...I mean, that would be really funny after the first two months of the season. So many people would have to apologize to Gary Parrish!

All that said, I still think UConn's simply better. ShotQuality did correctly note the first game should've been a 15+ point blowout in St. John's favor and that UConn was kind of lucky to hang around as much as they did. That's good for SJU, but that's also UConn's lone truly bad performance of the last two months. Even the Creighton loss was graded as an 11-point UConn win. I'm trusting the numbers here to swing back UConn's way, particularly as we continue to grapple with a St. John's offense that's simply not very good. (Since December 1, a 20-game sample: 51st in the nation, 237th in eFG%.)

NCAAW: #6 Michigan (-4.5) at #19 Ohio State, 8 PM ET, Peacock. I'm pretty tired of writing, so I'll leave it at this: you can either enjoy a rivalry game between two top-25 teams with a combined 45-10 record, or you could not. I will simply choose to enjoy it and read what our women's team here at BUR says about it.

#35 Santa Clara at #27 Saint Mary's (-3), 11 PM ET, CBSSN. This is my Game of the Year. For personal importance, anyway. I have been ringing the bell for Santa Clara since the second week of the season, when I was in an airport writing up a preview of one of their games for the Weekend Watchlist. Every year, I adopt one of these 10-12 seeds as my cause célèbre of sorts, and this year, it is Santa Clara, a shot volume monster that's in the top-30 at Torvik and is one catastrophic non-conference loss away from being a very obvious NCAA Tournament team.

Problem: they lost said game to Loyola Chicago. Given the NCAA committee's stated importance of WAB, I am led to believe that Santa Clara is hopefully in better position than they feel like they are. If WAB is the piece that builds the bracket, Santa Clara is an 11 seed headed to Dayton even if they lose this game. I do not want to deal with ifs for a team I like so much. It's no offense to Saint Mary's, who I enjoy a lot in their own right, but SMC is tracking for an 8 or 9 seed and is more or less safely in. Santa Clara needs this. I need this.

#23 Utah State (-1) at #45 San Diego State, 11 PM ET, FS1. Meanwhile, San Diego State elected to undo two months of great work in one week, taking a blowtorch to their resume and getting smoked by both Grand Canyon and Colorado State. Also meanwhile! Utah State took a bizarre road loss to Nevada at the weekend despite making 15 threes and leading 68-60 with seven minutes to go. They're in no matter what, but this has opened the door for potential malfeasance in the MWC race by way of a San Diego State win in this game.

The Non-D1 Game of the Week

D2: #20 Lenoir-Rhyne at #8 Anderson (SC) (-4.5), 7:30 PM ET, Flo Sports. 22-6 at 24-2, for one. For another, Anderson is in the midst of their best season ever. In 2011-12, they went 26-6 and made the D2 Elite Eight, which was nice, but this is a program with a 44% win percentage across its entire history. Behind HC Jimmie Williams, in his fourth full season as coach of the Trojans, they are a legitimate title threat. They've also got a certified Player You Need to Know in freshman guard Rashawn Inglemon, who is shooting 44% from 3 and is a top-20 player in the country.

0:00
/0:10

Lenoir-Rhyne, on the other hand, is the more known commodity. They're going to have a shot at the Elite Eight this year if they can make the D2 Tournament behind a hectic press defense that forces a ton of turnovers and has made life tough on opposing guards. In the first game between these two in January, Anderson won 102-96 behind 20 points, 8 assists, and 5 rebounds by Inglemon. I'm hoping the rematch is just as good.

B Games

NCAAW: #53 Rhode Island at #43 Richmond (-4.5), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Very simple two-way game here: a Rhode Island win almost instantly ends the A-10 title race and likely locks up an at-large bid. A Richmond win suddenly introduces the possibility of a split title between URI and George Mason while possibly adding Richmond back to the mix. A win here also gives Richmond a chance at an at-large, though it would most likely put them in First Four Out territory.

#5 Florida (-5) at #32 Texas, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. Beyond Michigan, Duke, and Arizona, Florida is probably the team the general public trusts most right now. They're about to play Texas, a team that got stomped by Georgia on Saturday and last gave up under 1 PPP to any opponent on January 14. Here's the problem! Said opponent was Vanderbilt, and for reasons beyond me, Texas has actually been pretty good against top-25 competition this year. They've averaged 1.194 PPP, a +5.8 rebounding margin per 100, and are averaging 1.16 PPP per half-court offensive possession. Can they stop a soul? No, but given Florida's shooting struggles, an upset isn't implausible.

NCAAW: #34 Oklahoma State at #31 Iowa State (-3.5), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. All this game can really do for the winner is help them wear home uniforms in the Round of 64, but hey, there's real importance in that. Filtered only for games against top-50 competition, the suggested spread is Iowa State -7.5, which says some things to me about Oklahoma State's true quality this year.

NCAAW: #62 South Dakota State at #51 North Dakota State (-4.5), 8 PM ET, Summit League Network. This has been a rare and unusual year in the Summit: a year that wasn't dominated by South Dakota State. This NDSU team is 14-0 and can essentially lock up 16-0 with a win here. At 27-2, NDSU would likely be an at-large candidate by a hair, so if you're into a multi-bid Summit, the long play is NDSU winning here but losing in the conference title game. Or you could just enjoy two of the ~15 most enjoyable offenses in WBB.

#162 Central Arkansas at #141 Austin Peay (-3), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN+. For all the marbles in the ASUN. Austin Peay completely wraps up the regular season title by winning this game and would have a great shot at a 17-1 conference record. That's awesome. But the story here is probably Central Arkansas for me, who has more than 10 conference wins (13!) for the first time in program history. They were picked to finish in the bottom three of the league, and nobody thought they would be good. Nobody except the guys in that locker room, and I can love that.

#37 Texas A&M at #17 Arkansas (-8), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. It doesn't seem that danger has fully reached the doorstep of Texas A&M just yet, but FWIW, they fall to an 89% chance at Torvik of making the NCAA Tournament with a loss here. I would personally argue their odds might be worse than that. They're 40th in WAB, and this is their lone locked-in Quad 1 game left on the slate. If they avoid a bad loss the rest of the way they're fine, but you run serious risks here of going 2-2 or something, losing to LSU, and suddenly being in need of multiple conference tournament wins to feel alright.

#33 SMU (-2) at #66 California, 10 PM ET, ACC Network. Similarly, SMU falls to 89% to make it with a loss here. More importantly, Cal rises to 47% to make it with a win. I am, as always, against any sort of high-major bid thievery when teams like Santa Clara and New Mexico need to get in first. But hey, California and Stanford are the black sheep of the ACC. One of them getting in isn't so bad.

C Games

#38 Georgia at #13 Vanderbilt (-8), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Finally. FINALLY. FINALLY!!!!!!!!! I'm not talking about Tennessee's win at Memorial, by the way. I'm talking about that FINALLY, I can announce: it is time to Buy Low on Vanderbilt. They've lost six of 11 games, there is a certified fan freakout, and most people who bought in two months ago are selling all the stock they have left. Not me.

For one, Duke Miles missed two of those six losses and was coming off the bench for the third. Tyler Tanner, Vandy's best player, was playing through the flu on Saturday, which might be why he took his lowest number of shots in two months. Over the last 10 games, in which they've gone 5-5, they've played like the 18th-best team in the sport. Can they rebound? No, but they're playing like the 4/5 seed they were the whole time, and four of the six losses have come to top-50 competition by a total of 10 points. Plus, there's a chance Frankie Collins returns, which would aid their perimeter defense immensely. Buy, buy, buy, especially with a likely 3-1 stretch looming to close the season.

#98 Illinois State at #85 Northern Iowa (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPNU. Arch Madness can get very mad very fast, with the preseason favorite now being likely to finish 6th and the best defense in mid-majordom a month ago being 5th:

#101 George Mason (-1) at #148 Saint Joseph's, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This one's merely on here for the love of the A-10 game. Beyond SLU and VCU, there's a major logjam, with all of GMU, SJU, Dayton, and Duquesne either at 9-5 (the first three) or 8-6 (Duquesne). Two of those four teams can't get the double bye, which makes this game a potential killer for the loser.

#247 Wofford at #133 ETSU (-9), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. The SoCon title race is over with ETSU as your standalone champ, but Wofford can stake a claim to a surprise 2 seed in a year of total upheaval with a win here.

NCAAW: #25 Texas Tech (-4) at #48 Kansas, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. An absolute must-win for KU if they want any shot at all at making the 2026 NCAA Tournament. I'd feel better about it on their behalf if they didn't heavily outshoot TTU two weeks ago, shot 84% from the line on 25 attempts, and still lost.

NCAAW: #67 San Diego State (-2) at #104 Boise State, 8:30 PM ET, MWN. SDSU can lock in the Mountain West title with a win here, but with a three game lead and three games to go (two of which are against bottom-four MWC teams), they're fine. This is more for Boise State, who would clinch a top-four spot in the conference tournament by winning.

#36 Ohio State at #26 Iowa (-5), 9 PM ET, BTN. Here's my sell: if Ohio State wins this game, they have a 3-in-4 shot of making the Tournament, per Torvik. Here's my actual sell: if Ohio State loses this game, they have a 50/50 shot and a more enjoyable team to watch can make the field instead.

#29 Wisconsin (-8) at #106 Oregon, 11 PM ET, BTN. As absurd as it sounds, a 3-13 Oregon team in the Big Ten Tournament is not the most lost concept in human history. They've outplayed all of Rutgers, Maryland, and Penn State this year and are just six spots off of Northwestern for the 14th-best team in the Big Ten since December. Extremely faint praise, but the new format lets all 18 teams get in, and if Oregon finishes 17th as projected, they're most likely playing 9-seed Ohio State...who will almost certainly need to win that game to feel any sort of March Madness hope.

Thursday, February 26

A Game

#10 Michigan State at #7 Purdue (-5), 8 PM ET, Peacock. This is a really odd Thursday night, usually dominated by WBB but without an obvious plus matchup for the sport. So: this specific game at this specific time when we really need a banger in either MBB or WBB steps in. May we all be thankful!

I am really intrigued by this game for numerous reasons, but this is a serious Dude Check moment for Purdue basketball and, possibly, for Mackey Arena. Mark Titus, who would know pretty well what suburban AAU basketball's life is like because he lived it, delivered what will either be a death blow or a re-energizer to the Purdue program:

Watching Purdue against top-end defenses this year, I'd find it hard to disagree. Purdue got diced up at home by Michigan and Iowa State and attempted 46 (!!!) threes against Nebraska in a game where they blew a 22-point lead. This type of dominant rebounding unit is like a plus Illinois, who also beat them at Mackey. So: quien es más macho?

B Games

NCAAW: #21 Tennessee at #5 LSU (-17.5), 6 PM ET, ESPN. This Tennessee season has quickly become one of the most unenjoyable, putrid things to watch in my lifetime. Thankfully, this will be fixed in record time by playing an LSU team almost ideally engineered to shove them in a locker for two hours. Boy, would I love to be wrong!

NCAAW: #20 North Carolina (-3) at #38 Virginia, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Fun game here. Virginia is squarely on the cutline, which is hugely important for a program with one (1) Tournament bid since 2010. A win here wouldn't lock the bid up, but it would give them their best shot in years at making the field.

NCAAW: #39 Syracuse at #26 Notre Dame (-6.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Both of these teams are in, so this is just a garden-variety good basketball game. The key here is Syracuse against good competition. Versus top-50 teams this year, they're 3-6 and rank 67th at Torvik. Actually, let's hammer this in more: they shoot 38% from 2 and 30% from 3 against top-50 competition. Again: not great when the entire NCAA Tournament for Syracuse is likely to be against top-50 competition! This wasn't a year I expected them to get in, though, so just making it is a nice prize.

NCAAW: #30 Villanova (-2.5) at #47 Seton Hall, 7 PM ET, Peacock. UConn's league is going to be a two-bid league unless Seton Hall goes on a tear to finish the season, which makes for a truly fascinating conversation to have. UConn, at minimum, will go down as one of the five best teams of the last ~25 years in women's college basketball. They'll also have played in the weakest conference for an all-time great that I can remember.

NCAAW: #29 Alabama at #8 Vanderbilt (-10.5), 7:30 PM ET, SECN+. Quietly, this Vandy team still has an outside path to a 1 seed. They'd have to win out and make the SEC Tournament final at minimum, but it's a path that exists and intrigues me. Alabama, meanwhile, probably jumps to a 5 seed or even a 4 with a win here. The closer you can get to that 4 seed line, which is where you begin hosting first and second round games, the happier you are.

NCAAW: #33 Illinois at #11 Iowa (-10.5), 9 PM ET, BTN. Another team quietly in contention for a 1 seed, though they'd need plenty of help: Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 22-5, smoked Michigan at home on Sunday, and are trying hard to stake their claim as the best non-UCLA team the league has to offer. The good news for Iowa: they don't have to play UCLA until the Big Ten Tournament if at all. The bad news for Illinois: their final two games are this and Minnesota, and while they'll make the field anyway they're increasingly slipping towards 9 seed territory after starting out 13-1 and beating Maryland on NYD.

C Games

#164 Charleston (-3) at #269 Hampton, 11 AM ET, Flo Sports. Day basketball, and at least this day basketball has some importance. Charleston is very likely finishing second in the CAA and has at least an outside chance at first at the time of writing. Hampton...not so much, but hey! It's basketball.

NCAAW: #22 Ole Miss (-4) at #41 Florida, 6 PM ET, SEC Network. Florida is this year's ideal Regular Season Team of Interest: not winning anything of importance, not making the NCAA Tournament, but instead drawing every SEC team into a high-scoring and entertaining affair that they eventually lose.

#104 Liberty (-2) at #182 Kennesaw State, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Liberty, who has already essentially won CUSA, can 100% clinch it with a win here. This is also mostly of interest if Liberty can win out and get to 27-4. I don't think they really have an at-large case but you never know.

#239 Tennessee State at #226 SEMO (-4), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN+. The OVC is pretty much down to a three-team race: these two and Morehead State, all tied at 13-5. (UT Martin has a shot at 12-6 but needs serious help.) I am openly rooting for Tennessee State here, because it opens a path to an extremely unlikely scenario where four teams all finish tied for first at 14-6. That feels like the 2026 OVC summed up.

#143 Portland State at #146 Montana State (-3), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. With one more win, Portland State can put a bow on their first outright Big Sky title since 2008. I think that's a great story and one more people should be taking note of in the sport.

#117 North Dakota State at #118 St. Thomas (-3), 9 PM ET, Midco Sports. This one has no conference importance. Just fun! I think we like fun. FWIW, St. Thomas winning this game can likely get them the Summit 2 seed, which is meaningful on the Summit's weird tournament format that gives the 1 and 2 seeds a day off between the quarters and the semis.

NCAAW: #32 Georgia at #4 Texas (-19), 10 PM ET, SEC Network. Highly doubtful this one's interesting, but Georgia owns wins over Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Plus, they did hang with LSU for a half.

#111 UC Irvine (-1) at #155 Cal State Northridge, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. This is the real excitement. All of Hawaii, UCI, and CSUN are tied at the top of the Big West at 11-5. The impact of this one is huge, as the winner becomes extremely likely to get at least a share of the title.

Friday, February 27

The A+ Game of the Week

#1 Michigan (-1) at #4 Illinois, 8 PM ET, FOX. Did you need someone to tell you why Goodfellas was awesome before you saw it for the first time? No, you didn't. Make plans to be available. And read Jordan Majewski's preview the second it's up on this site.

B Game

#68 Akron (-4) at #138 Kent State, 8 PM ET, ESPNU. For the uninitiated, this is one of the best regional rivalries in the sport. They truly hate one another, and three weeks ago there was a scrap at tip-off. Imagine at full time if this one's competitive and close. Akron has had the upper hand in the last few meetings, winning seven of nine and last allowing Kent to post north of 72 points in March 2023.

C Games

NCAAW: #69 Georgia Southern (-3) at #115 Marshall, 6 PM ET, ESPN+. The absurd, super-fun wonkiness of the Sun Belt can end here with just one result: a Georgia Southern win. If they topple Marshall, they are guaranteed no worse than top-two positioning, which is frankly just as important for the conference tournament as actually winning the regular season title. If Troy loses to Arkansas State, this may be to clinch the Sun Belt outright.

#84 Miami (OH) (-12) at #286 Western Michigan, 6 PM ET, CBSSN. It's extreme TIFWIW territory we're getting into here. But: in six tries over four seasons, Miami has lost as a favorite to Western twice before and is 1-2 on the road. I kinda think it is meaningless when your opponent is 9-18, 3-11 MAC, but...I don't know. We've had weirder upsets.

#77 Yale (-5) at #170 Cornell, 6 PM ET, ESPNU. Two reasons. One: the projected score at KenPom is 90-85 and that really sums up these two defenses. Two: a 2-0 weekend for Yale, I think, would lock in the Ivy League title for them, or at least the 1 seed. A 2-0 weekend and any Harvard loss on the road (they play at Princeton and Penn) gives the title to Yale no questions asked.

#86 Dayton at #80 George Washington (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. This is only meaningful for Dayton, who needs wins to lock up top-four positioning in the A10. But it's meaningful to George Washington in a different way: this has been a rough, underwhelming season and I imagine they'd love to take it out on someone.

#181 Appalachian State (-1) at #249 Texas State, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. I mean, look at this. No crash course is needed on this game's importance.