Welcome to another edition of the Weekend Watchlist! Before you dive in, check out yesterday's top performances and today's Watchability Index.
Saturday, February 14
The A+ Game of the Weekend
#11 Kansas at #7 Iowa State (-6), 1 PM ET, ABC.
Been a while since we’ve had a “Hilton Magic” matchup, thanks to the backloaded Big 12 scheduling. The first meeting in Lawrence was all Jayhawks, with KU hitting 12-24 from 3 (the most ISU has allowed all season) and turning the ball over at just a 14% rate against the Clones aggressive denial defense (the second lowest turnover rate ISU has produced all season). Ironically the “situational spot” is reversed from the first meeting, where KU was returning home from an embarrassing loss at West Virginia, now ISU is doing the same after their worst game of the year at TCU- no doubt the spot chasers have this one circled, highlighted, and underlined.
Digging into the first matchup, KU’s ball movement against the ISU’s overloaded defense was excellent, and while they lack the short roll passing of a KJ Adams that has unlocked this Clones defense in the past, Jamari McDowell was quietly an efficient distributor from the middle of the floor in that first meeting, finding cutters behind the aggressive ISU defense.
More important was KU’s defense, which held ISU to their second lowest rim total of the Big 12 season and single digit transition points. The Clones have lost every Big 12 game they’ve scored single digit transition points in with the exception of lifeless Baylor, who they still very nearly lost to. Flory Bidunga was incredible defensively in this matchup, not just because of the aforementioned rim protection, but because of his ability to mitigate the versatility of Joshua Jefferson. ISU creates so many lanes and angles when Jefferson plays in the ball screen, but Bidunga was more than capable of defending him out there.
Jefferson's highest ORtg in 3 games vs KU has been 83 while totally just 7 assists vs 9 turnovers. Two of ISU's three losses this season have been Jefferson's two worst games of the season, which includes the loss at KU.
And now for the elephant in the room portion of this preview: Darryn Peterson will play…supposedly. There’s obviously no questioning Peterson’s ability as a pure scorer and shotmaker, but I think it is fair to question whether or not he actually makes Kansas a better team. Often the ball sticks when he’s on the floor and it becomes more about finding his shot, which in turn can cap the offense of someone like Bidunga. But I digress, especially considering his presence is certainly key in the rematch with the Clones, who will outright deny all Bidunga post touches (lowest post rate allowed in the country, and Bidunga didn’t have have a single post possession in the first meeting). His shot making, shot gravity, and spacing is certainly needed in a matchup where finding those weakside catch and shoots is of the utmost importance, and his presence was a major reason KU was able to do that to great effect in the first meeting.
Obviously all the situational stars are aligned for the Clones (Hilton Magic, short term buy low/sell high, etc), but I think there are certain schematic advantages for the Jayhawks that can carry over in the rematch in Ames. - Jordan Majewski
A Games
#27 Kentucky at #5 Florida (-11), 3 PM ET, ABC.
It's fun to sort the data yourself at barttorvik.com. For instance, you can sort it to show you who the best teams in America, based entirely on performance during conference play, are estimated to be. #1 is Houston, #3 Arizona, #4 Michigan. Nothing that stunning. Do you know who #2 is? If you hate the concept of repeat titles or re-runs as I do, you probably will not want to read on.
Over the past few weeks, an unexpected thing has happened: Rueben Chinyelu became Florida's best player. Alright, that may not be completely true, as most metrics still favor Thomas Haugh, but Chinyelu has taken on an outsized role on both ends of the court and has developed into a nightmare down low. However, the defensive end is where he's gone from "guy who kinda got bullied by Auburn last April" to out-and-out best defender in the SEC. With Chinyelu on the court in conference play, per Hoop-Explorer, Florida's opponents are shooting 43% from 2 while Florida holds a +17 rebounding margin per 100 and a +15.3% 2PT% delta.
This Kentucky team has won a lot of games lately and successfully baited Tennessee into a second meltdown in as many months last weekend, but I'm still far from convinced that these guys can score against good defenses. Against top-30 defenses this year, Kentucky has posted a 47% eFG% and sees their offensive efficiency drop by nearly eight points per 100, even adjusted for opponent strength. Essentially, against non-elite defenses, Kentucky scores at the rate of an Auburn or Vanderbilt. Against top-end defenses, it's more like an LSU or Northwestern.
I think they could be in for a really rude day here unless this is the rare day they're hitting threes against a good defense. UK's rate of dribble jumpers more than doubles against top-30 defenses, and a lot of their best possessions are just whatever Otega Oweh can think to do at a given time. Coupled with how they've held up defensively against top-30 offenses - tons of OREBs allowed, just-okay rim protection - it feels like Kentucky has to have one of their out-of-nowhere 47% days from 3 to pull off yet another shocker in SEC play. - Will Warren
#9 Purdue (-1) at #23 Iowa, 5 PM ET, FOX.
Iowa had their best perimeter shooting game of the season the first time around against Purdue, going 12-25 from 3 in Mackey, doubling up the Boilers in both makes and rate. The Hawkeyes built a double digit second half lead, but ultimately faltered down the stretch. Purdue showed, hard hedged, and dropped against Bennett Stirtz's ball screen, but the hedge with Oscar Cluff was probably the most effective.
Iowa however received anomalous 3PT shooting from Kael Combs and Tavion Banks, who went 7-8 from 3 combined in that game. Those two have combined for 7 made threes in Iowa's 7 games since. Iowa did find some offensive cutting against the Purdue double teams, as one would expect from a Ben McCollum offense
but they weren't particularly efficient finishing, scoring .83 PPP on cuts (1.33 PPP for the season).
Of course on the other end Purdue has their own ball screen maestro in Braden Smith, and Iowa similarly showed a variety coverages against him, but was most effective with their hedge.
Purdue however was much more efficient on cuts/rolls when Smith saw two, scoring 1.8 PPP on rolls and 1.4 PPP via cuts, and after one of his worst halves of the season, Smith completely solved the Iowa hedge in the 2H, as he tends to do.
Essentially that was the difference in the game, and without Iowa's wild 3PT shooting (the Mackey rims seemed to have a Maui softness to them that night), Purdue was able to really the play the game on their terms from about 15 minutes on. Stirtz has turned into a mega volume scorer since that game, averaging 27 ppg over the last 7. Alvaro Fulgueiras appeared to be emerging on the west coast trip as the roll/pop threat to Stirtz's ball screen that everyone imagined in the offseason, but he's since returned to pumpkin status.
Smith figuring out the Iowa hedge and the Hawkeyes' lack of consistent secondary and tertiary scoring to Stirtz is probably the biggest issue for McCollum in the rematch, as well as limiting the Boilers on the offensive glass. I'm sure this is another circled situational spot, but much like Nebraska, I don't believe Iowa has the ability to exploit Purdue's athletic limitations on the wing defensively. - Jordan Majewski
#16 Texas Tech at #2 Arizona (-11), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN.
JT Toppin against the Arizona frontcourt is an obvious focus area here, but the point guard duel between Christian Anderson and Jaden Bradley looms nearly as large. Bradley is a pesky blanket on the ball, but Tech badly needs Anderson to be able to operate in ball screens with Toppin to be at its best offensively. The Raiders really thrive when Anderson can slip pocket passes to Toppin barreling down the lane; if Bradley can fight over screens effectively, it allows the Arizona bigs to stay home.
Texas Tech may not be able to bank on Toppin’s automatic interior scoring in this one. He struggled against KU’s all-world defender Flory Bidunga, and though the 7-2 Motiejus Krivas is not the same type of bouncy athlete, he is a massive wall around the rim who can bother Toppin’s deep arsenal of lefty flip shots and half hooks.
Luke Bamgboye’s ability to play real minutes in this game will be vital. Toppin and Watts cannot hold up against this frontcourt for 40 minutes, so having the shot-swatting sophomore getting closer to full health is massive. He clocked 17 effective minutes against Colorado this week, and McCasland likely has to deploy the two-big lineups often to avoid Toppin wearing down.
That may not help on the glass, though. Bamgboye has a habit of gambling for blocked shots, so he’s never been a high-level defensive rebounder. Arizona’s relentless onslaught on the boards – Krivas, Tobe Awaka, Koa Peat, Ivan Kharchenkov – is a bear for any opponent, but if it is just Toppin and Watts, the Red Raiders will get overwhelmed in the second half.
The Red Raiders are essentially at full strength now, and with arguably the two best players on the floor (Arizona might have the next five or six), there’s always a chance. I’m expecting an efficient shootout that is close for 30-35 minutes before Arizona’s overt physicality wears down the thinner Red Raiders. - Jim Root
#10 Gonzaga (-4) at #38 Santa Clara, 10:30 PM ET, ESPN.
The Zags’ new defensive identity has come to the forefront since Braden Huff got hurt. Huff remains on crutches while putting zero weight on the leg with his surgically repaired knee, so that version of Gonzaga is what you’ll get for quite a while longer.
The Zags moved Jalen Warley into the starting lineup, and the Swiss Army knife defender has helped ratchet up the Zags defense to top 15ish levels. Since Huff has been out (1/15), the Zags rank 14th nationally in defensive efficiency, per Bart Torvik. That’s vital against a versatile Santa Clara attack that brings both skill and size to the proceedings.
The Broncos have the most efficient attack in the WCC in league games – yes, more efficient than both Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s. They never turn it over, and they combine a wide array of shooters (Elijah Mahi, Christian Hammond, Sash Gavalyugov, etc.) with a battering ram 1-2 punch at center (Bukky Oboye, Allen Graves). They’re shooting 61% from inside the arc against WCC foes, and Graves’ continued emergence into a two-way star and possible NBA player has unlocked an even higher gear.
Of course, that interior tandem got completely punked by Graham Ike in the first meeting (34 and 11 on 13/17 shooting). Even without Huff, his bash brother in the paint, Ike has continued to eviscerate foes and is the frontrunner for WCC Player of the Year. He’s gotten some help from Davis Fogle, a freshman who has gone from 6.0ppg to 11.9ppg since Huff went down.
Other notes from the first meeting: Gonzaga narrowly won the rebound battle (35-31) and turnover battle (15-13)), and it outshot Santa Clara, 65.1% to 53.8%, inside the arc. The Zags led by as many as 23 in the second half. But this is a new meeting with huge stakes on the line, and without Huff, the Bulldogs are not quite as formidable in the paint. Keep an eye on this one, as Santa Clara has beaten Gonzaga in two straight seasons already. - Jim Root
B Games
#33 Clemson at #3 Duke (-13), 12 PM ET, ESPN.
Despite Clemson’s frustrating home loss to Virginia Tech this week, this one is still a crucial battle at the top of the ACC standings. A Clemson road win would knot the two atop the standings, a half game ahead of Virginia.
Defending Duke often comes down to how much help you have to send to the inimitable Cam Boozer, an elite isolation and post up scorer who consistently eviscerates 1v1 coverage. Though not the same player, Clemson struggled against another preternatural scoring freshman in AJ Dybantsa, who served up a healthy 28 points, nine rebounds and six assists in a dramatic comeback win for BYU.
From a play style sense, Boozer is more akin to Miami’s Malik Reneau, who the Tigers attacked relentlessly on the defensive end and fouled him out in just 21 minutes. Expect the Tigers’ high-low attack to target Boozer as well, with Nick Davidson, RJ Godfrey and Carter Welling taking turns powering into Boozer’s airspace. Clemson posts up at a 96th percentile rate in the country and is in the 98th percentile in efficiency.
Of course, if you think the National Player of the Year is getting in foul trouble at Cameron Indoor, I have some swampland to sell you (to Boozer’s credit, he has maintained a miniscule foul rate all year).
The backcourt battle could be pivotal. The size of Duke’s guards frequently gives opponents problems, and Clemson’s Jestin Porter is smallish and vulnerable to length/size. Expect a heavy dose of Ace Buckner, the Tigers’ dynamic freshman whose minutes have gone way up over the last six contests.
The key is for Clemson to hang around and force a close game, Duke’s kryptonite in recent years. The Tigers’ style – pound the paint, control transition, own the defensive glass – has always traveled well under Brad Brownell, and keeping the Blue Devils off the offensive boards will be vital.
That could be a bigger challenge with Pat Ngongba, Duke’s starting center, likely to return from a wrist injury. He hurt it against UNC and sat out the mid-week victory over Pitt. Duke’s interior depth is limited, but they do become more switchy and dynamic with Maliq Brown on the floor. Ngongba is a load, however, and his return should help protect Boozer from foul trouble against the Tigers’ powerful frontcourt. - Jim Root
#39 UCLA at #1 Michigan (-16), 12:45 PM ET, CBS.
Mick Cronin and the Bruins head to Ann Arbor with a week of rest and game planning to take on the first-place Wolverines. And that might be where the advantages end for UCLA, as they try to avoid a losing record in Quad 1 and 2 games (currently 7-7).
It is worth noting that Michigan hasn’t looked like its unbeatable self consistently as of late. They trailed by as much as 16 against Northwestern on Wednesday night. But even then, the Wolverines turned it on in the last 14 minutes of the second half and won by 12 points.
What’s working against UCLA is a laundry list. The game tips at 9:45 am their time, which may be better or worse to Cronin than the late tips that force his father, Hap Cronin, to adjust his sleep schedule. Either way, I’m sure we’ll hear something about the time of tip in the postgame presser.
On top of the time, Michigan’s strengths–which are strengths against 99% of the teams in Division I basketball–are decidedly the weaknesses for the Bruins of Westwood. The Wolverines are among the better two-point offenses and defenses in the country, thanks to their size across the frontcourt rotation, highlighted by former Bruin Aday Mara from the portal, standing at 7-foot-3.
The Bruins’ best chance for staying in this one and even pulling off a major upset is by going off from three. Forward Tyler Bilodeau is shooting 45% from deep this season on 4.5 attempts. Fellow forward Eric Dailey has regressed as a shooter, but he shot 37.8% last season and is coming off of a 2 for 4 performance against Washington.
Sophomore guard Trent Perry will be vital for UCLA’s chances as well. He’s averaging 19.3 points per game over the last two weeks and 8 for 11 from deep. With transfer guard Donovan Dent struggling all season from distance, getting spacing against the fourth-best shot-blocking defense in the country is absolutely massive for them to stay in this one. - Tuck Clarry
#36 Texas A&M at #13 Vanderbilt (-9), 1 PM ET, SEC Network.
The Texas A&M star has diminished somewhat thanks to three straight losses, but if you told Aggie faithful three months ago they'd be 17-7 and 7-4 in the SEC, I imagine literally every fan alive would've taken it based on preseason expectations. There's a 4-in-5 shot it turns into four straight losses here, but even so...17-8, 7-5 SEC is still well ahead of what I thought was coming circa October.
I do wish this was a better matchup for them, I guess. Texas A&M is 0-for-3 against top-25 competition with the results getting worse each time out, and against the five other top-25 offenses they've played, Buckyball's defense has allowed 1.2 PPP despite opponents shooting 29% from 3. Is it bad when you allow 58% 2PT, only force turnovers on 13% of possessions (21% against everyone else), get out-rebounded, and allow 28 FTAs a game against this level of competition?
The Aggies' hyper-aggressive perimeter coverage does force a lot of guarded threes, and a Vandy team certainly down Frankie Collins and possibly down Duke Miles is fundamentally much different than with either or both. The problem is that said fundamental difference could be a net negative. Vandy's rate of rim attacks from the perimeter goes up by about 5% when neither Miles nor Collins is on the floor, largely because Tyler Tanner gets free reign to go nuts. In fact, the Tyler Tandem here (Tanner/Nickel) could be due huge games against an A&M defense that struggles with opposing ball handlers that can handle the first wave of attack.
The opposite side here is that Vandy's defense is noticeably worse sans Collins and grades out as barely a top-50 unit since his departure. Almost all of the downward effects come as Vandy is unable to produce perimeter pressure in the same way, therefore allowing more downhill attacks and being forced into playing a lighter style of basketball to avoid serious foul trouble. Still, TAMU's struggles to impress their style upon better offenses is so severe that this would have to be something in the neighborhood of a 25-30 point game for Jacari Lane or Pop Isaacs (alternately, 20+ for both) for me to feel rosy about their odds at Memorial. - Will Warren
#15 Louisville (-5) 'at' #44 Baylor, 4 PM ET, ESPN.
If you didn't remember that Louisville has among the most electric backcourts in the country, Mikel Brown and Ryan Conwell certainly reminded folks to the tune of a combined 76 points on 15-of-22 from deep in a 118-77 destruction over NC State on Monday.
The Cardinals' shot breakdown would make an analytics nerd proud. Louisville took 59 of their 65 shots from deep or right under the hoop in the contest. Funny enough, they went 1-for-6 in the "inefficient" looks.
This emphasis on analytics will be especially important against Baylor, who rank 23rd nationally in rim-and-3 rate defense, per ShotQuality (NC State ranks 290th).
That said, Scott Drew's slow move from his classic no-middle to more of a drop coverage scheme has led Baylor to be very exposed against shot creators. Only two power conference teams allow a higher effective field goal percentage against pick-and-roll plays, and Louisville scored a season-high 22 points out of pick-and-roll creation against NC State.
On the other end, Louisville was projected to allow 90 points against NC State per ShotQuality, but NC State went 1-for-13 on Catch-and-Shoot threes. Baylor's duo of Cameron Carr and Tounde Yessoufou will look to expose the weak defensive backcourt of the Cardinals.
Inevitably, this contest will help answer the question about whether Louisville just had an extraordinarily hot game on Monday, or if the firepower of this roster can truly make themselves a serious March Madness threat. While Baylor isn't a marquee opponent, their defensive style and scoring prowess of their own should at least put up a better test than the Wolfpack did. - Matthew Winick
#41 Miami (FL) at #26 NC State (-5), 4 PM ET, ESPN2.
Nobody wants to hear it from me, but the sport is better because UNC lost to Miami on Tuesday. Why? Because it was funny, and because it forces people to realize how good of a job Jai Lucas has done in Year One at Miami after Jim Larrañaga's retirement. If the Selection Show were held today, this Miami team would be a 10 or 11 seed, which is a pretty wild turnaround from where they were at one year ago.
Lucas's next step will be figuring out if he can carry that performance on the road to Raleigh. This Miami team has quietly been really good away from home (6-3 and 31st, per Torvik) despite opponents shooting 37% from 3. Against top-50 competition, Miami has cleaned up on the boards and is a -10.3% 3PT% delta away from some better results. (BYU shooting 9-19 from 3 against Miami in a game where they shot 44% from 3 and Miami won both TO% and OREB% looms large.)
This would all feel nicer if two things hadn't happened: NC State getting absolutely demolished on the road at Louisville, and NC State getting to play this game at home, where they were a Melvin Council Supernova Game from beating Kansas and have handled business outside of a loss to Virginia. Since COVID, home favorites playing after losing by 25 or more in their previous game, along with having a rest advantage, are 14-7 ATS. Coupled with the actual matchup itself - Miami's offense, even adjusted for opponent, is nearly eight points worse per 100 against top-50 competition - this could be a get-right game for a Wolfpack side who could use it. - Will Warren
#42 Ohio State vs. #20 Virginia (-5), 8 PM ET, FOX.
Yes, you read the schedule correctly, Ohio State and Virginia are playing in Nashville in mid February. This could quickly turn into a tricky matchup for the Hoos given OSU’s ability to exploit coverages with Bruce Thornton’s elite ball screen and off the dribble scoring (93rd and 86th percentile efficiency ratings, respectively). Virginia’s rim protection within their drop coverage is borderline dominant, and that allows them to really contest on the perimeter, where opponents have shot sub 30% on the year from 3 (and even slightly lower in ACC play). Where Virginia has struggled defensively is defending on the ball and in ball screens, which OSU can exploit with Thornton (but really need Mobley to step up as well, as they lose every time he goes MIA).
For Virginia, this is an excellent matchup for Thijs De Ridder to get back on track offensively, as he’s struggled the last few games (which has also coincided with Malik Thomas struggling offensively and defensively, which in turn has led to another apparent doghousing for him), and the Cavs can absolutely dominate the offensive glass- but I think the Buckeye backcourt has an even better matchup. - Jordan Majewski
#31 Auburn at #19 Arkansas (-6), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN.
In our internal chat, Majewski let me know that Keyshawn Hall is suspended for this game. I guess while I was at a work conference this week, Steven Pearl rage-benched Hall for what we'll call actions detrimental to the well-being of the team. I have no real idea; I just know that one of the most enigmatic and occasionally quixotic college basketball players of the last couple years will not be playing here.
That is important for a couple of reasons. One: he is Auburn's best offensive piece, obviously. Two: sans Hall, Auburn has...oh, how do I put this...played better? Longtime fans of the career of one K. Hall will know his penchant for putting up tremendous individual stats paired with nasty on/offs, and while Auburn's 3PT% takes a significant hit when he's out of the game, it's in a small enough sample (~400 possessions) that it's realistic to think it may not be that meaningful. So: here's where I tell you that in 2025-26, Auburn has actually been two points better per 100 possessions, and five points better per 100 against top-100 competition, with Hall on the bench.
This does not mean it's the most sustainable thing in the world. Against good teams, no-Hall lineups essentially give Auburn a six-man rotation. All of Sebastian Williams-Adams, Kevin Overton, Elyjah Freeman, Tahaad Pettiford, KeShawn Murphy, and even Filip Jovic will be forced to play huge minutes tonight. Maybe you get a Simon Walker cameo from the bench or something, but those six guys are it. These lineups, against better teams, are also extremely 1-on-1 heavy with an Assist% of 34%. Considering Arkansas's lack of interest on defense, that could be very good or very bad. Who's to say.
Said six guys have played a fascinating brand of hoops without Hall: worse offensively and super-reliant on Tahaad Pettiford, but better defensively and somehow even better at getting to the foul line. I always find it unwise to bet against Arkansas in Bud Walton, but just from a value-hunting perspective, you're getting a team who crushes the offensive boards and gets fouled a lot as an underdog against a team with horrific rebounding numbers and a center position addicted to foul trouble. Ewing Theory? Hall Theory? - Will Warren
#34 Texas (-1) at #52 Missouri, 8:30 PM ET, ESPN2.
More beautiful basketball will be played on this Saturday, but there will not be a more chaotic and anxious game of basketball played on this Saturday. Both of these teams desperately need wins to solidify their March resumes. Neither is in anything resembling a great spot right now, and both would be squarely in the First Four mix if the field were seeded today. Also, they both have one unit they completely distrust and one unit they rely on to scrape out wins.
This is more or less a matchup of who you trust more between Texas's electrifying offense versus Mizzou's quietly improved defense, along with who you trust least between Texas's awful defense and Mizzou's quietly weakening offense. Normally this is where I'd play the home court card, but the Tigers don't show improved performance at home adjusted for competition, and Texas has a pair of true Quad 1 wins on the road in the last month.
So, you tell me. Do you believe that Dailyn Swain is the single most impactful player in this game, as he's been in most Texas wins this season? In wins this year, Swain has shot a hilarious 68% from 2 and 85% from the line while averaging nearly 8 rebounds a night. If this is a Swain Game where he goes for 22 & 9 while staying out of foul trouble, that opens things up for the rest of the Texas roster to take advantage.
The problem for me is that I think Missouri probably has the second, third, and possibly fourth-best players in this game. Texas's worst defensive experiences this year have almost entirely come against teams who can exploit their bottom-25%-of-the-SEC rim protection, and drawing Mark Mitchell when you have a weak frontcourt seems like a bad time. I'd expect Mitchell to have a huge game here, but it could be cancelled out by Swain. Can Trent Pierce and Jayden Stone provide quality-enough support? - Will Warren
#56 Nevada at #43 San Diego State (-7), 10 PM ET, CBSSN.
Two top-four MWC teams square off, with San Diego State needing to remain spotless to have a real shot of getting to the NCAA tournament and in the running for regular season title contention. Nevada has been top four in adjusted offensive and defensive ratings over the last five games, with the Aztecs decidedly playing the best defense, allowing opponents to shoot 39.4% from the field.
San Diego State head coach Brian Dutcher shared updates on integral pieces Magoon Gwath and Elzie Harrington ahead of the weekend. The 7-footer Gwath was able to practice the last two days and could play depending on his body’s reaction to the workload tomorrow. Dutcher was transparent with Harrington, saying that they’re targeting the February 21st game against Colorado State as his likely return. Harrington is averaging 8.4 points, 2.3 assists and 1.7 rebounds in 20.5 minutes per game in league play.
Gwath makes a dominant defense terrifying. The Aztecs have a 17.3% block rate when he’s on the floor, putting them in the 99th percentile in the country. San Diego State is giving up 42.9% on the season on paint shot attempts with him off the floor; it drops to 36.4% with him protecting the rim.
The Wolfpack will need to find offense to win this one, no small task against this Aztec defense. They have the seventh-best field goal percentage and sixth-best three-point percentage in the MWC over the last five games. Nevada will need lead guard Tayshawn Comer to continue taking care of the basketball and avoid turnovers (he’s first in the conference in assist rate) and hit his perimeter shots (40.5% in league play from three-point) for Nevada to have a shot on the road. - Tuck Clarry
C Games
#53 TCU at #64 Oklahoma State (-2), 12 PM ET, ESPN2.
Nothing about TCU makes sense except that the Horned Frogs don't make sense. Thus, losing in Stillwater to give Oklahoma State bubble life after TCU got a massive home win over Iowa State is the only logical conclusion.
That chaos theory aside, this one comes down to whether TCU can keep Oklahoma State out of transition. If they can – and it is typically a strength of these Horned Frogs – it forces the Cowboys to execute in the half court, where they are less effective. The Frogs can take away the rim and force some turnovers against OSU’s shaky ball-handlers.
If it stays in the half court and OSU’s scoring is limited, TCU’s brutish offense can manufacture points to hang around and possibly win. But if this one opens up and gives Anthony Roy, Kanye Clary, and Vyctorious Miller the chance to create in space, the Frogs probably do not have the firepower to keep up.
Massive bubble battle, as both teams likely need more wins to get inside the field as of today. - Jim Root
#160 Navy (-1) at #213 Colgate, 12 PM ET, CBSSN.
Navy has been on cruise control in the Patriot League for nearly a month now, but Colgate needs this one to have a realistic chance of catching the Midshipmen in the standings. Navy’s motion offense has really improved in Jon Perry’s first season at the helm thanks to the utter dominance of Aidan Kehoe as a post scorer, which in turn has lightened the load on PG Austin Begnini. Kehoe scores the 5th most points per game out of the post in the country on a 99th percentile post rate, which naturally leads to a ton of double teams (95th percentile rate), but his passing has improved as much as his scoring with a 19% assist rate in Patriot play. Much of Navy’s offense centers around these compact cuts around Kehoe in the post when the defense doubles, as they have the lowest 3PT attempt rate in the league.
Colgate defensively allows a 97th percentile post rate and plays it straight up at a 98th percentile rate (per Synergy data), and they’ve had significant issues defending other mega post rate centers in the league like Hank Alvey at Lehigh and Ben Defty at BU, neither of whom pass like Kehoe.
Offensively Colgate plays at the fastest pace in the league, which isn’t saying much, as the Patriot is probably the ultimate plodder’s league, and play far more through Jalen Cox’s ball screen and PNR. Navy typically shows on the ball screen and flattens out the drive, which in turn leads to one of the lowest rim rates allowed in the country, but consequently the highest 3PT attempt rate allowed in the league. This however is an atypical Matt Langel offense, as the Raiders are on pace to have their lowest 3PT attempt rate and assist rate of Langel’s storied tenure.
Certainly worth noting that Colgate’s last loss to Navy was over 7 calendar years ago, and while Perry is in his first season as head coach, he’s been on the Navy bench for every one of those losses. History is on the side of the Raiders, but schematically I like the Middies. - Jordan Majewski
#22 St. John's (-6) at #63 Providence, 1 PM ET, TNT.
It happened over a month ago pre-Super Bowl, which may as well mean it happened 12 years ago in this economy. But Providence did beat St. John's on the road, and here, they have the chance to pull off what I'd imagine would be one of the unlikeliest conference play sweeps anyone would have this year. It comes as an interesting inflection point for St. John's, who basically cannot afford to lose this game if they want a better shot at keeping up with UConn for the Big East title. Plus, as wild as it sounds, Providence is one win away from having the same number of conference wins as sixth-place Georgetown. Unbelievably, Providence could get in position to avoid UConn and St. John's until the semifinals.
That requires them to get stops, which the players seem offended by having to do. Providence has given up some of the laziest baskets I've seen from a high-major team all season, with their super-drop on defense mostly being responsible. These guys give up extremely open threes sometimes.
I still believe this is the best strategy against St. John's, who is much improved shooting versus last year but has had their struggles come most frequently against sunken-in defenses. Providence particularly has to play deep when Oswin Erhunmwunse is at the 5, as his mobility is no bueno. The Johnnies can shoot themselves out of a jam much better than a year ago, but it's still not their preference, and I do worry about guys like Ian Jackson and Joson Sanon, who run as hot and cold as anyone, shooting the Johnnies back into a deeper jam they can't rise out of. Then again, if it's a good day for both, St. John's could win this by 16. - Will Warren
#37 SMU (-3) at #68 Syracuse, 2 PM ET, The CW.
A game so unattractive to the naked eye that it's 6:52 AM on Saturday and it fell to me to scrap up a preview of it. As usual, any game that SMU plays against a non-top 50 opponent is probably going to be a win, and Road SMU has not graded out significantly differently compared to Home SMU. These guys simply win as favorites and lose as underdogs without much variance involved.
If Syracuse would like to mess up the SMU formula here, their defense has to stop flagging the way it has for a month. In the non-conference I was convinced this Syracuse team had Actual Real Rim Protection for the first time in years, and to some extent that's still true, but in conference play the Orange rank 11th in the ACC in 2PT% allowed at 54.2%. That's a problem when, under Enfield, SMU is 26-4 when shooting 54.8% or better from two. It is highly imperative for Cuse's success that William Kyle plays 30+ minutes. - Will Warren
#133 North Dakota State (-7) at #284 North Dakota, 2 PM ET, CBSSN.
Coming into this season, Anthony Smith was generally considered to be the jewel of Paul Sather’s recruiting class at North Dakota, but he has been completely overshadowed by another freshman combo guard in Greyson Uelmen. The downhill contact seeker has been on a tear for the past month, which has coincided with UND’s rise up the Summit standings, setting up a huge matchup with rival NDSU in their biggest home game of the season. Uelmen isn’t the biggest or strongest guy on the ball, but he’s a relentless dribble prober and a creative finisher at the rim.
The problem for the Hawks is that NDSU is extremely aggressive defending the ball screen, trapping and blitzing at one of the highest rates in the country, which requires offenses to have strong spacing and ball movement. UND is near dead last in assist rate nationally and has one shooter in Zach Kraft.
While NDSU traps and doubles at a top 25 rate nationally, no defense does it at a higher rate than UND, which has led to the highest turnover rate forced in the league (made even more effective by the fact they don’t turn it over offensively, creating a +8% delta in that regard in Summit play).
UND has to force those turnovers because they’re one of the worst rim defenses in the entire country. While UND doesn’t have the spacing or ball movement to beat NDSU’s two to the ball defense, the same can’t be said about the Bison, an offense shooting nearly 40% from 3 in Summit play on a high rate with third highest assist rate as well.
Biggest game of the year at the Betty (and nationally televised) and the Bison have dropped the last 2 meetings there, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hawks pull it out (and would lean their way ATS), but in a battle of two aggressive defenses, the Bison are the more equipped team offensively. - Jordan Majewski
#40 Georgia (-1) at #59 Oklahoma, 3:30 PM ET, SEC Network.
Enjoy your gruel. While the rest of the country will be watching Kentucky/Florida, Louisville/Baylor, or just about any other game in this timeslot, some souls will doom themselves to a viewing of, based on performance in conference play versus their respective schedules, the SEC's 11th-best team playing its 12th-best. That doesn't make it the worst game the SEC will give you all weekend (Mississippi State/Ole Miss is objectively worse), but it is the worst non-rivalry game the SEC will afford you. Everyone say 'excitement' on three when you remember that Georgia is probably making the NCAA Tournament over New Mexico!
It's unfair to paint this game as true slop. Since SEC play began, Oklahoma's Xzayvier Brown has been making a quiet bid for Second Team All-SEC. He's having to carry a major load as the only enjoyable player on an unenjoyable team, and in conference play, he's sitting on 18 PPG on 52% 2PT/38% 3PT shooting numbers. I would argue he was the reason Oklahoma pulled off a potential season-altering win at Vandy last weekend: 20 points on 12 shots and a perfect 5-5 at the rim, which opened up the rest of OU's offense to support him for once.
Georgia's woes are only woes in the relative sense - they're still ahead of schedule for what was expected this year, and Torvik still allows them a 76% shot of making the Tournament in four weeks. However, margins are starting to run thin thanks to four losses in five games, with missed overtime opportunities against all of Clemson (97-94), Ole Miss (97-95), and Tennessee (86-85) looming large. There's nothing they do particularly well or poorly at this time, and if you have as big of a problem with rebounding as Georgia does, there's only a couple better options for SEC teams you have to play in a "we really need this win" scenario. Brown is the best player on either team, but Georgia has been a significantly better team once they leave Athens, and a path to a rare edge in shot volume is feasible. - Will Warren
#102 Hofstra at #108 UNC Wilmington (-2), 4 PM ET, CBSSN.
Hofstra generates next to no offense at the rim, making them a tough shot making dependent team, but in their 5 game CAA losing streak they averaged 13 made threes on 40% 3PT shooting. They’ve followed that skid up with a 4 game winning streak where they’ve averaged about 9 made triples on 34% shooting. Go figure. Every loss in that 5 game losing streak was by one or two possessions, so it was probably just bad luck, but the roller coaster CAA season the Pride have been on kind of flies in the face of my “Hofstra needs to hit tough shots to win” narrative. Regardless, the only CAA team who has hit threes against UNCW this season has been William & Mary’s extreme spacing, as league opponents are hitting just 27% against the Seahawks, and just under 25% at Trask. All told, the Seahawks have the 7th highest owed regression on catch and shoot defense in Synergy’s shot quality database- but we’re also ¾ of the way through the season at this point. If tough-shot making Hofstra can coax some of that regression, they’ll have a decent chance at Trask given they're a strong rebounding team and own the best rim denial and rim efficiency defense in the league. - Jordan Majewski
#85 Stephen F. Austin (-1) at #136 UTRGV, 5:30 PM ET, ESPN+.
I find myself exceptionally excited for this game, and not just because I wrote about SFA last week. The 'Jacks have a two-game lead in the Southland with six games to go; considering this is their toughest road game remaining, they could just about wrap up the regular season title if they can handle a really hard road game against a team that's won eight games in a row.
I haven't seen much talk online about the Vaqueros of UTRGV beyond having a wonderful name and nearly beating Wisconsin last year. I think you should be more aware of them, particularly the backcourt duo of Koree Cotton and Marvin McGhee III. Over the last month of play, these two have combined to average 28.1 PPG on 66% 2PT/50% 3PT. Kahil Fennell has begun to tweak his offense to find these guys in any way possible, and the gravity they add offensively is so useful that UTRGV has turned into one of the best offenses in America at generating quality cuts to the rim from the perimeter. All Cotton and McGhee are doing here is standing in the corner, but because they're so hot from 3, the opponent has no choice but to face-guard them, vacating the paint entirely for actions like this.
That could be exceptionally nice to have against a SFA defense that, while among the nation's best in actually defending cuts to the basket (and rim protection in general) once they happen, does give up a ton of cuts from the perimeter thanks to their defensive style of play. If the way the 'Jacks funnel everything to the middle of the court ends up playing against them, it could lead to just their second blemish in conference play...and opens the door back up for McNeese to steal the regular season title. - Will Warren
#61 West Virginia at #49 UCF (-5), 6 PM ET, FS1.
This has some real two-way impact for March, surprisingly. I don't know that anyone has noticed just yet, but this WVU team has been quietly plugging away and getting some nice pelts on the board. They've swept Cincinnati (a top-50 NET team), own the win over Kansas, beat Arizona State on the road, and rank 58th in Wins Above Bubble. That's not going to sound too impressive to you, but considering the average bracketologist has Texas (48th) in the field as of now, they're at least closing in on Next Four Out territory.
UCF remains in the 7-9 seed range, which means that a win here in a Quad 2 game probably doesn't help the team that much but a loss would be fairly harmful and drop them a seed line. Fun to watch as UCF is, particularly in the basketball version of the Bounce House, their quality is nowhere near their resume. At home, they've played like the 147th-best defense in the sport, and in conference games, opponents are shooting a hilarious 59% from 2 (easily the worst in the Big 12).
This is a sputtery-at-best WVU offense, but I'm going to admit some real interest in their output here. Against defenses outside of the top 100, West Virginia is 12-2 and has averaged 1.16 PPP. Adjusted for schedule, that's not really a notable difference, but if WVU scores 1.16 PPP on the expected 64 possessions here (per KenPom), that's 74 points. Can they hold UCF to 73 or less? - Will Warren
#73 Yale (-4) at #163 Harvard, 6:30 PM ET, ESPNU.
Interestingly, Yale is pretty much exactly as good as they were last year (73rd versus 74th), has a better offense, is shooting 42% from 3, and will be favored in every game they play the rest of the way, meaning they should enter the Ivy League's quadbox in a few weeks at no worse than 23-5, 11-3 Ivy. That's a great season in pretty much any year! It also feels a little disappointing, based on what I thought this Yale team could be in the preseason (touching the top 50 at some point). Of course, KenPom is meaningless if you get swept by Harvard.
Yale managed to drop a home fixture to Tommy Amaker's first decent team since COVID thanks to missing 16 (yes, 16) layups, but to their credit, Harvard probably has the best rim protection in the Ivy. Faint praise, of course. It can and should still matter against a Yale team that routinely takes fewer threes than its opponents and is 5-4 when they get outshot from 2 (13-0 when they win 2PT%). I guess I'm more worried about Yale's defense, which has been a little better in conference play but remains completely hopeless in rim protection and has struggled greatly against teams with good guards.
That gives me worries here. Yale probably has three of the four best players in this game, including future Ivy League POTY Nick Townsend, but Harvard's Robert Hinton more or less beat Yale on his own a few weeks ago. Players with Hinton's profile - larger guards that can win at the rim and hit pull-up jumpers - have often been Yale's kryptonite. I don't know that they have someone who can match up with Hinton 1-on-1 and win for significant stretches of this game. If Hinton gets help, which he kind of did two weeks ago, Harvard can complete the sweep. If Hinton goes for 25+ again, he may not need that much help. Yale's job is to try everything they can to force Harvard's non-Hinton pieces to beat them. Easier said than done, even if favored. - Will Warren
#151 Montana State at #159 Montana (-2), 9 PM ET, ESPN+.
The Brawl of the Wild unquestionably has more heat on the football side of operations, but it's going to matter a lot here. The Big Sky's conference title race is almost locked up by Portland State, sure. Much is still to be decided, though, including who gets the #2 seed. It's also a matchup of two of the three best guards in the conference: the illustrious Money Williams of Montana and the unknown (or at least un-referenced on this site to my knowledge) Jed Miller of Montana State, who hopefully has the exact accent that name implies in my head.
Brawl I went to MSU this season on their home court, which featured a couple of unique aspects to it that could be pertinent here: Montana getting up 10 fewer shot equivalents (60 to 70) than Montana State, and the extremely backcourt-reliant Grizzlies getting just 26 of their 67 points from their two best backcourt scores (Williams and Tyler Thompson). Williams in particular had an extremely up-and-down night, only getting off 11 shot attempts and four free throws because of six turnovers and early foul trouble.
Rare is it that one team's fortunes so heavily rest upon a single player, but that's the case for Montana. By ESPN Analytics' new Net Points formula (thanks to Dean Oliver), Williams is almost worth more on a per-game basis than the rest of Montana's rotation combined. This is a Bobcats outfit that strongly prefers to play drop coverage, as center Chris Hodges is...less than mobile.
About half of Williams' attempts as the main ball-handler in Montana's P&R sets are pull-up jumpers. His hit rate on jumpers in general isn't great (just under 0.97 points per shot), but we're discussing a guy who averages 20.7 PPG and has gone for 30+ five times this year. If this is one of his nights jumper-wise, it opens up more driving lanes for him to get to where he's most comfortable. - Will Warren
#32 Saint Mary's (-7) at #104 Pacific, 10:30 PM ET, ESPN2.
Perhaps one of the most surprising top four league matchups you could have, the Gaels head to Stockton to play a turnaround Tigers team that Dave Smart has brought from a 200-level team to a borderline top 100 team this season.
To be clear, Saint Mary’s should win this one and highlight that they’re a tournament-caliber team. They have the best player on the floor with forward Paulius Murauskus. They have the size in the frontcourt to bludgeon their mid-major adversary and the athleticism in the wing to make things challenging on offense for Pacific.
But the Gaels’ style of play complements Pacific potentially staying in this one. The slowed-down pace makes it hard for either team to get blown out, and it makes second-chance opportunities more pivotal in determining who wins the possession battle. Saint Mary’s massive frontcourt with 7-foot-3 Andrew McKeever and 7-foot-1 Harry Wessels poses a massive obstacle to limiting the Gaels’ second looks and to gain opportunities for the Tigers. But Pacific has actually been the best rebounding team in the WCC this season.
After three straight years of the Gaels owning the offensive and defensive rebounding categories in the WCC, Pacific leads the league with a 36.6% offensive rebounding rate and allows opponents just a 22.1% offensive rebounding rate. It is worth noting that Pacific’s rebounding rate has taken a noticeable dip against Quad 1 teams this season, with its defensive rebounding rate dropping from 77.9% to 66%.
The Tigers will no doubt increase their three-point shooting rate, as they’ve done all season against better teams. Maintaining their 39.1% shooting in conference play and 38.8% shooting in Quad 1 games could make things tighter than you’d suspect. Opponents are shooting 40.4% from the field and 31.1% from beyond the arc at the Spanos Center in Stockton. - Tuck Clarry
Sunday, February 15
A Games
#35 Indiana at #6 Illinois (-11), 1 PM ET, CBS.
Sounds like Illinois might return Kylan Boswell for this matchup, but Andrej Stojakovic’s status remains unclear. Boswell’s possible return to the lineup is obviously notable as the Illini have struggled to defend Jeremy Fears and Nick Boyd on the ball in back to back OT losses. This is likely a tough two matchup for the Hoosiers in a battle of drop coverages, as the Hoosiers prefer to pinball the basketball around the perimeter rather than attack off the dribble (especially with Tayton Conerway essentially not being an effective part of the offense for over a month now) and lack floor spacing from their frontcourt against the Ivisics. Indiana’s offense is outstanding at decisive rim cuts (94th percentile rate, 98th percentile efficiency rating) when defenses overplay Lamar Wilkerson and Tucker DeVries, but that’s often taken away by drop coverages, and the Illini allow cuts on just a 10th percentile rate, and catch and shoots at just an 18th percentile rate (the other key component of the Hoosier offense).
Conversely, Illinois is extremely capable of exploiting drop coverages with the most efficient ball screen offense in the entire country, thanks to one Keaton Wagler. Indiana’s defense sports a 97th percentile ball screen rate allowed, and while it was an easy win over Oregon, they allowed 1.2 PPP to Wei Lin’s ball screen, which has a conversion rate of about 1.8 PPP to the average ball screen operator. In less sarcastic terms, this is a matchup the Illini PNR machine can thrive in, both on the ball and via the roll/pop- not to mention on the offensive glass if needed as well. - Jordan Majewski
#62 Belmont (-1) at #107 Murray State, 6 PM ET, ESPN2.
If you are of a certain age, you will recognize this as the once-perennial Ohio Valley Conference title game. Now, it's merely a matchup of the two best* teams in the Missouri Valley and of possibly the most interesting future option on the 12-seed line in the entire sport. The odds of this ending up as the single most entertaining game of the weekend, especially because of how vastly different each team plays, is higher than you'd think.
Belmont remains the same 4-in, 1-out offense they've been for 25 years, but this edition is shooting 61% 2PT/41% 3PT and has the single best frontcourt of any mid-major in the sport. Yes, I'm serious: the best. No one in the MVC has been able to slow down the multifaceted combo of Sam Orme, who is the best pick-and-pop stretch 4 in mid-major basketball this year not named Allen Graves, and center Drew Scharnowski, he of a 117 ORtg on 26% USG to go with an 8.4% Block%. The list of guys in this sport with a 110+ ORtg on 25%+ USG and a 8%+ Block%: Scharnowski, Nate Bittle, and Tarris Reed.
Murray, meanwhile, is one of the five best teams in college basketball in 2026 in one very specific area: winning from three. The Racers have made 98 more threes than their opponents this season, only outpaced by Alabama, Texas Tech, Charleston Southern (!), and Saint Louis. This is in large part because no team allows fewer threes than Murray thanks to a relatively unique defensive structure that keeps a big roughly 15 feet away from any screening action:
This is reliant on the defending guard chasing hard over the top, similar to an Illinois or Creighton system, but Murray's is as extreme a version of the super drop as I've seen run. In the first matchup, Belmont completely destroyed the super drop by running a record number of dribble handoffs, with Tyler Lundblade thriving off of them because Lundblade needs little-to-no space to get his shot off:
The defensive equation is interesting, though. Belmont gave up a season-high number of points on putbacks because Murray's numerous three-point attempts banged off in every direction, meaning Murray's guards/wings were able to react to these shots quickly and secure 16 offensive boards. It ended up being pointless because Belmont got back 15 of their misses, but a better shooting day (6-23 versus Belmont's 12-24 two weeks ago) and better rebounding could give them what's necessary to get over the hump. And to bring back some nostalgia. - Will Warren
B Game
None. We elevated Belmont/Murray up a tier for obvious reasons.
C Games
#194 Siena at #184 Marist (-3), 2 PM ET, ESPN+.
In the morass of games in the MAAC, this is probably going to end up deciding a top-four spot. If Siena can climb to second (Marist is probably out of that discussion), the importance of this game grows quickly. The MAAC has an odd setup where half the quarterfinals are played on a Friday (the 1 and 2 seeds) while the other half are played on Saturday (the 3 and 4), meaning there's no true double-bye but the top two seeds get an extra day of rest.
Whether that holds statistical importance I'm not sure, but it can't hurt. Siena smoked Marist at home a few weeks ago and completely nuked the Marist offensive attack, holding them to 14 points (!) in the second half and one of the longest average 2PA distances (8.4 feet) in all of MAAC play this year. It starts there for me: unless Marist can effectively attack the rim and stop settling for bad jumpers, I lean towards the team with better athleticism in this game, even if they've lost two in a row. However, this is the rare MAAC year where HCA seems to matter (home teams are winning 61% of their games versus 54% the last three years), so perhaps I'm wrong. - Will Warren
#167 Merrimack at #190 Quinnipiac (-1), 2 PM ET, ESPN+.
With Thursday's convincing win over a strong Marist squad, Merrimack now has a two-game stranglehold on the MAAC standings with just two games to play. While the conference is notoriously competitive and weird things can certainly happen, a road victory at third-place Quinnipiac will put the Warriors quite far in the driver's seat to take home their first regular season title in their second campaign in the league.
What Joe Gallo and Co. are doing in North Andover is pretty remarkable. Buoyed by their patented zone, Merrimack is 13-2 in league games with 11 of those wins by at least eight points. They haven't lost a home game in MAAC play, and have only allowed one league opponent to top 1.1 points per possession.
The team also has the frontrunner for MAAC Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year in superstar point guard Kevair Kennedy, who is a different, but equally effective replacement for now-Seton Hall floor general Budd Clark. Kennedy dropped a cool 23 points, eight rebounds, and six assists to take down Quinnipiac in the first matchup last month.
The Bobcats were led in that one by preseason Player of the Year Amarri Monroe's 24 points. Monroe has been very solid this season, but both he and his team have been relatively stagnant relative to last year's regular season championship, and quite frankly, have been surpassed by Merrimack.
Remember that part where I said the MAAC can be chaotic? Well, if Quinnipiac wins this critical matchup, they'll be just a game-and-a-half back of Merrimack in the league standings, with only three home games against teams with a combined 13-32 record remaining. This matchup could be the Bobcats' final surge for a repeat title. So Quinnipiac, how's that zone defense looking? - Matthew Winick
#60 South Florida (-3) at #115 FAU, 2 PM ET, ESPN2.
USF steamrolled the Owls in the first meeting in Tampa despite 7-27 3PT shooting, which was their second worst shooting performance of AAC play. The Bulls shot 12 more free throws, grabbed an astounding 21 offensive rebounds, and outscored FAU in the paint by an absurd 46-18 margin. USF's 2PT attempt distance that game rated in the 97th percentile per KenPom data, while FAU was in the 8th percentile. The deep dive into the box score only gets worse for the Owls, with USF's high quality shot rate at 24 attemps, as opposed to 9 for FAU, and transition points were more than doubled in favor of the Bulls.
That loss more or less broke FAU, as they were sitting at 6-1 in the AAC at the time, and have since lost 5 in a row, so I'm sure there's some revenge/buy low sell high angle that interests a certain crowd, and I will note that Devin Vanterpool gave USF's drop coverage a lot of issues, but the deeper dive into the box score doesn't paint a pretty picture in round 2 for FAU. - Jordan Majewski