The Watchlist Tune o' the Week:

Guys, he's good. I can't believe any of you got fooled. C'mon.

  • A Games are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ Game every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
  • B Games are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
  • C Games are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through.
  • We hope to never get to D or F Games this season. No need.

All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. All lines for women's games are via Bart Torvik.

Monday, February 9

Happy "Everyone Remembers This Sport Exists" Day to all who observe.

The A+ Game of the Week

#2 Arizona (-3) at #13 Kansas, 9 PM ET, ESPN. My anticipation is that the entire Basket Under Review crew will have some amazing content for this game. Mine is being typed on a phone as I prep Super Bowl dinner, so I apologize that it’s not great. But hey! That’s why we’re a team.

Anyway, the question is the question: is Darryn Peterson gonna be a full go and not sulk on the bench for significant stretches? I hate to put it like that, but I’m legitimately concerned by the guy’s body language on the bench. I am also concerned that, for Arizona’s sake if he does play 35 minutes, Kansas is around four points better per 100 with Peterson on the court than without. That’s legitimately huge in a coin flip game. Can he play 35 minutes or more? Does he want to? Who knows?

Also the A+ Game of the Week, But We Don't Do Two on the Same Day, So Just Think of This As the A Game of the Week

NCAAW: #11 Oklahoma at #12 Vanderbilt (-1.5), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. I'm writing this one with a 5:30 AM alarm clock looming, so apologies...but it's going to be a lot of fun and you should watch it. This game deserves more respect than I'm giving it. I only wish it were at 7 and not 9 for obvious reasons.

B Game

#24 NC State at #19 Louisville (-4), 7 PM ET, ESPN. NC State has more or less fixed their resume in the sense that they're tracking for around a 6-8 seed and have several opportunities left for signature wins. Louisville, technically, is in the same boat...except nearly every tough game left is away from home. They have two near-guaranteed wins at home against Georgia Tech/Syracuse, with the remaining six all being tough. Can you get this done one game at a time? I can see a scenario where Louisville gets to 22-9 (11-7 ACC) and they're a 6 seed entering the ACC Tournament. After all the offseason hype...well, is that enough?

C Games

#75 Yale (-9) at #250 Howard, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Cool game to be played here. Yale's star has diminished a little after I had some mild hopes they'd build an at-large case, but they're still a very good team. Being a Howard season-ticket holder this year in particular would be pretty great: Missouri and Yale in your home gym? Not bad at all.

NCAAW: #21 Kentucky at #4 Texas (-17.5), 7:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Kentucky has completely fallen off the map, losing five of eight and very likely six of nine here. My votes for a culprit: a bizarre -13% FT% delta and the fourth-lowest turnovers forced in the entire sport, both over the last month. I still think they're a good team but they period where they looked like a surefire top-10 group is over. More likely a team that gets a 5 or 6 seed and hopes they get the right matchup to turn it into a Sweet Sixteen run.

#115 UNC Wilmington (-1) at #163 Charleston, 8 PM ET, CBSSN. My ongoing CAA Theory is a harsh but real read of the situation: no one is good, and no one (beyond Northeastern and North Carolina A&T) is bad. Everyone is a different flavor of average, and whether you're above or below average seems to depend on the week. This is likely going to decide the regular-season title, but I have a hard time getting pumped about it when Charleston rates as the league's fourth-best team at KenPom and UNCW got swept by William & Mary.

#58 Belmont (-4) at #143 Bradley, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. This Belmont team has moved on from "fun story" to "actually stomping the MVC competition." This is very similar to the peak Belmont teams, in that I do not trust them to hang defensively with better competition but they can and will score on pretty much anyone. If they can find a way to go 2-1 in their road games against Bradley/Murray State/Illinois State, their case (27-4, 17-3 MVC) for an at-large bid is a little better than you'd think.

Tuesday, February 10

A Game

#10 Purdue at #11 Nebraska (-2), 7 PM ET, FS1. Bad news for Nebraska fans: you aren't going to win this game. It has, sadly, been written in the stars.

I jest! But I do think we all collectively need to drink some Settle Down Juice on Purdue. This major swoon of theirs has resulted in a team that, over their last 10 games, is...uh, 7-3 with a top-5 offense and still allows just 30% of opponent attempts at the rim. I still hate their rim protection once teams actually get there, and this team not being better at offensive rebounding is confusing to me. I just can't get there with a full worry yet.

I guess part of it is Purdue generally matching up well with Nebraska. Everyone remembers the Huskers' awesome upset two years ago, but outside of that, Painter is 5-1/4-2 ATS post-COVID against Hoiberg, averaging 1.19 PPP on 58% 2PT/39% 3PT. This is a pretty crucial and telling stretch for both teams, as Purdue's next five go Nebraska/Iowa/Michigan/Indiana/Michigan State, while this is Nebraska's final chance for a defining home win. What's funny is that both of these teams are set up well to let the other score a lot if they're hitting. We'll see.

B Games

#14 Vanderbilt at #30 Auburn (-1), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. How do you assess Vanderbilt? On one hand, I see that they've allowed 1.2 PPP or higher in all four losses and it stokes the serious worry I have had for some time about them defensively. On the other hand...I mean, is it really a coincidence that once the Commodores were hit by injuries, they haven't played as well? Since the first game (New Haven, Dec. 29) where both Frankie Collins and Duke Miles missed, Vandy has played like a barely top-25 team with a +6% 3PT delta. Prior to these injuries, they were a top-10 team with...a +8% 3PT delta. I would wager the real truth is somewhere in the 15-20 range, and therefore, I can't give up on them just yet.

#27 North Carolina at #43 Miami (FL) (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN. All eyes on UNC, as they try to follow up the most thrilling win they've produced in this rivalry in...oh, four years. Intriguingly, despite beating Virginia and Duke in the last two weeks, they enter this day of publication (February 9) with the exact same KenPom ranking as they had on January 9: 27th. Over their last 8 games, this is a top-5 offense with the 126th-best defense in the sport. I need more convincing.

#40 Wisconsin at #4 Illinois (-13), 8 PM ET, Peacock. Question: what do you make of Wisconsin? If they play to their current rankings, they're likely a 9 or 10 seed on Selection Sunday. Despite a tight overtime loss to Indiana, they're 8-4 in Big Ten play, a better record than Iowa and one more loss than both Michigan State and Purdue. Since the end of Feast Week, they're the #34 team in America with a top-25 offense and a near-top-50 defense. I think they're good. I just can't figure out how good, and if they should be considered for much beyond potentially winning a Round of 64 game. I do believe that every year, college basketball produces at least one 8/9 game winner built to get blown out by a 1 seed, and Wisconsin feels apt for that.

C Games

#22 BYU (-2) at #44 Baylor, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. BYU has now lost four in a row and five of six, with the one win being a tighter-than-expected win at home over rival Utah. This just isn't a great team, but I do believe better days could be ahead. Over their last six games, opponents are shooting 42% (!) from 3 against them and 43% on midrange jumpers. It's obviously been bad in other areas, too (their rim protection has cratered), but this isn't as bad as it looks, I'd argue. If they go 2-0 this week they're in fine position for a 6 seed or something.

#79 George Mason (-3) at Richmond, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. George Mason fascinates me. How far can a team push the limits of winning games while being highly unimpressive in doing so? Their win over Saint Joe's at the weekend was highly needed, but it seemed to happen in spite of getting dominated on the glass and having a weak offensive day themselves. I'd like to feel some confidence in these guys continuing to win and continuing to build an at-large case, so they really need a 2-0 week.

#6 Iowa State (-8) at #54 TCU, 9 PM ET, FS1. My question a couple weeks back of "what exactly is TCU" seems to have been answered. They're not good. However! A win here and I will be suckered in once more. Against Jamie Dixon, Otzelberger is 6-1 and has beaten the Horned Frogs six times in a row, never allowing more than 72 points. To beat this ISU team, you probably need to at least touch 72. Can TCU get there while avoiding a rebounding beatdown?

#23 Arkansas (-3) at #51 LSU, 9 PM ET, SEC Network. Bi-weekly Arkansas Away From Home Check-In: 21st nationally at Torvik with a top-5 offense at home (53rd defensively), 33rd nationally at Torvik with the 15th-best offense and 93rd-best defense away from home. Yes, they didn't lose Saturday, but I guess I need more than one win over a bad SEC team to sway me? Also, against top-100 competition: 8-6, top-10 offense, 107th-ranked defense. They're not enigmatic! They're a lesser 2023-24 Kentucky.

#3 Duke (-15) at #108 Pittsburgh, 9 PM ET, ESPN.

#59 Oklahoma State at #73 Arizona State (-1), 9 PM ET, CBSSN. Look, it's not my protocol to select the NCAA Tournament field. It's just my job to tell you that Oklahoma State ranks no worse than 43rd in any of the resume-based metrics. Five weeks out, they have a near-exact 50/50 shot to make the Tournament if they can simply avoid losing games like this one. It is also my job to share that, filtered exclusively for games against top-100 competition, the line here should be Arizona State -4.5.

NCAAW: #33 Iowa State (-5.5) at #56 BYU, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Iowa State has pulled off a basketball rarity: five losses in a row followed by five wins in a row. Only one of those wins is over a guaranteed NCAA Tournament team (Texas Tech), but it's still an impressive righting of the ship thanks to shooting 56% 2PT/38% 3PT over this run.

Wednesday, February 11

A Games

NCAAW: #25 Washington at #15 Iowa (-6.5), 7:30 PM ET, BTN+. God, if only the Big Ten perhaps had its own network it could put games on that didn’t require an extra subscription on top of ten others. It’s on the tip of my tongue…can’t quite place the name. Anyway, I love this game, and really want to see what Washington has to offer. They’ve found something defensively the last few weeks and I wonder how well it can hold up against a fantastic Hawkeye frontcourt.

NCAAW: #2 UCLA (-13.5) at #17 Michigan State, 8 PM ET, Peacock. It’s completely possible I’ve put this game a tier too high. UCLA looks as if they can only be beaten by UConn and maybe Texas, and this Michigan State team had to scrap with a bad Penn State crew for two hours over the weekend. If UCLA wins by 20 it won’t be surprising. However…I don’t know, it just seems unlikely to me any West Coast Big Ten team will ever 100% ace the league without a single misstep. Maybe this is it, maybe not.

#47 New Mexico at #66 Grand Canyon (-1), 10 PM ET, FS1. If you can stay up this long, you’re going to enjoy this one. My thoughts on Grand Canyon as an institution aside, they do produce a fantastic crowd, and this New Mexico team can bring the show (defensively) wherever they play. Highly recommend either watching this live or being me and DVRing it for the next morning.

B Games

NCAAW: #91 Arkansas State at #84 Georgia Southern (-4), 5 PM ET, ESPN+. This is potentially for the 1 seed in a crowded Sun Belt race with four (!) top-100 teams. Explaining WBB to MBB fans is interesting because they'd have no idea that the Sun Belt is functionally the MVC of women's hoops, while the Ivy is the Mountain West and the Mountain West is the Big West. Arkansas State is super fun and chaotic; imagine if Alabama pressed after every made basket and essentially played defense like peak Stephen F. Austin.

#48 USC at #42 Ohio State (-5), 6:30 PM ET, BTN. I had this in the B tier for a couple of reasons. One is that it’s a probable NCAA Tournament team playing at a probable First Four contender. The other is that Alijah Arenas is Actual For Real Good, at least based on his last two games, and that does make USC more interesting than they were before.

#7 Florida (-6) at #37 Georgia, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. It sounds strange to say this, but Georgia's win over LSU this weekend was fairly encouraging. UGA still cannot rebound, isn't good at rim protection, and doesn't operate beautifully in the half-court. However! None of these are required in an SEC whose best team can't shoot. I am starting to wonder if, after being way too harsh on Florida in the non-conference run, we've maybe swung too far back in SEC play. It's still the same team that lost to Missouri and Auburn, though they smoked Georgia once already.

#60 Virginia Tech at #29 Clemson (-9), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. I have nothing against Virginia Tech whatsoever and generally want them to do well. I also want them to get one across the finish line or get off the pot. Since the triple overtime Virginia win, this team has led SMU by 8 in the second half, trailed NC State by 3 with 10 minutes to play, and trailed Duke by 6 with 5 to go. They went 0-3 in these games. The SMU one really sticks in the craw. If that halfcourt heave doesn't go in, they're 17-7 (6-5 ACC) with a cutline-worthy WAB. They have a frustrating schedule left: significant underdogs in four, significant favorites in three. When your best shot is a 28% chance of winning at Miami, or about the same odds of Neo Avdalas making any random three, it's not pretty.

#52 Missouri at #33 Texas A&M (-7), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. The Texas A&M Linsanity run may be over, but in their defense, 17-6 (7-3 SEC) is way beyond anyone's expectations from four months ago. My worry would be that they're 3-4 when their opponent generates 34 or more points in the paint and they're about to play Missouri, who averages 39 and has posted 40+ three times in SEC play.

C Games

#71 California at #70 Syracuse (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPNU. Here is a thing I found shameless and stupid.

Anthony, per EvanMiya, is the single worst player in Syracuse's rotation. By any set of stats you can find, he should be, at very best, the eighth man. Syracuse is bad, but Anthony is not some darkhorse waiting in the wings. He's been outplayed by fellow freshman Sadiq White, and his direct competition for minutes (Nate Kingz) is a far better player at this time. If his name were Kiyan Johnson and his parents ran a Kroger, no one would care for one second that a 13-11 team's worst rotation player did not play a minute.

Notably, this has not stopped various jokers and jesters, all of whom are sponsored by Kalshi, from weighing in. This is all over a famous person's son, who is shooting 42% 2PT/24% 3PT in conference play and has one positive defensive grade by DBPM in his last eight outings. Maybe I should become enraged, furious, and performatively upset like Shedeur Sanders (Pro Bowler!) superfans at Kevin Stefanski. However, I should do this for an unknown player. Let's try it out.

It is a CRIME, it is EVIL, and it is WORTH INVESTIGATION that Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor is only playing 13 minutes a game in conference play for Butler. They must fire Thad Matta, not because he has had a very forgettable four-year run, but because he will not play a player whose biographical qualifications include "had several dunks showcased on social media." Our bad media, indeed.

#152 Austin Peay at #197 Queens (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Anyway, here's a better game that matters. Austin Peay is clearly the best team in the ASun this year and is the only team in the league that seems truly interested in defending for 40 minutes, but that will be put to the test against the best offense in the conference. By the way, have any of the media members concerned about the minutes of Syracuse's worst rotation player bothered to check out that Austin Peay, whose coach dresses like a military member, is 17-6 and has won 13 of 14? Seems like that's some easy retweets and Elon bucks.

#8 UConn (-10) at #78 Butler, 7:30 PM ET, TNT. Okay, I'm calm now, promise. For Butler's sake, their goose seems largely cooked, and I can't think of a worse time to play UConn than 1) immediately after a loss and 2) as Butler seems likely to be without both Stink Robinson and Jamie Kaiser. Kaiser is arguably more important as a starter, but Robinson is the team's best perimeter defender by a mile. If you have neither in this game I have a hard time seeing how Butler keeps this within 15.

NCAAW: #46 Seton Hall at #51 Marquette (-1.5), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. This is likely for third place in the Big East, but most importantly, it's likely for which of these two teams has the best shot at giving the Big East a third bid. Neither would be in the Tournament as of now, but a win in this game at least keeps your at-large hopes alive.

#132 UAB at #55 Tulsa (-11), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Tulsa took a tough loss Sunday to South Florida but it can't and shouldn't diminish their status as the probable best team in the AAC. This is a strange matchup for them, though. Tulsa smoked UAB last month by 22 on the road, but it's Eric Konkol's lone win over Andy Kennedy. I hated the way UAB attempted to defend Tulsa last time, allowing 71% on twos almost entirely at the rim. It could simply be that this Tulsa roster matches up well with what UAB attempts to do on D.

NCAAW: #47 Utah at #43 Arizona State (-3), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN+. These are two teams that seem destined for the 8-10 seed range. Interestingly, Utah has actually been better away from home than in their friendly confines, possibly thanks to their style (largely conservative on D, fairly slow offensively) making sense for travel. Can they be just the second team all year to beat Arizona State in Tempe?

NCAAW: #86 Colorado State at #72 San Diego State (-3), 9 PM ET, MWN. As mentioned earlier, the MWC of WBB is not the MWC of MBB. Still, these two, plus UNLV and Boise State, are legitimately good and frisky teams that could make some Round of 64 noise.

Thursday, February 12

A Games

NCAAW: #14 TCU (-2) at #29 Baylor, 7 PM ET, ESPN. This is probably for the Big 12 title, which always is worthwhile, but I love how both of these teams are playing as of late. TCU may just be 7-3 over their last 10 and did lose to Colorado, yet they’ve still played as the best team in the league over that span. Meanwhile: Baylor is 9-1 with a top-12 defense. This is always a full-court brawl and I expect no different here.

NCAAW: #4 Texas (-10) at #12 Vanderbilt, 7:30 PM ET, SECN+. At home, this Texas team is mortifying. They have a turnover margin of +18 per 100 possessions, outscore their opponents by 54 points per 100, and have defeated Torvik’s #5, #11, #20, and #22 teams at home. They scare me…at home.

Away from home, they have vulnerabilities. They’ve lost to both LSU and South Carolina. That turnover margin falls to +13. They struggle mightily with foul trouble. There‘s a lane for Vanderbilt to pull off what would be a program-defining win. They’ve just got to play their best game of the year to do it.

B Games

NCAAW: #31 Georgia at #35 Mississippi State (-1), 7:30 PM ET, SECN+. I’m into this one, a game between two teams that haven’t played well in weeks and really need wins. Mississippi State’s road demolition of Tennessee looks like a fluke in hindsight, while UGA is 5-5 in their last 10 and has serious offensive issues against any defense of note. The problem for State: they are nowhere near a defense of note. The problem for Georgia: they’ve gone under 1 PPP in six of their last nine games.

NCAAW: #26 Nebraska at #9 Minnesota (-8.5), 8 PM ET, BTN. Minnesota: great, great team. If you’re looking to feel very smart this year by knowing a lot about a team who doesn’t necessarily jump off the page as a title contender, look into the Gophers. Against top-100 competition spanning 15 games, they’ve played like Torvik’s #8 team, which is really something for a team that appears to be on track for a 6 seed.

Northern Iowa at Belmont, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Another Belmont game to watch, which means I don't have to sell it to you. How about a matchup of the league's best offense and defense? As of now, I would place my bets on a Belmont/Illinois State Arch Madness final, but Illinois State would (as it stands) have to get past UNI in the quarterfinals first, a team Ryan Pedon is 2-5 against.

NCAAW: #38 Virginia at #44 California (-0.5), 10 PM ET, ESPN+.

NCAAW: #39 Virginia Tech at #41 Stanford (-1.5), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. I'm pairing these two together for obvious reasons. Two Virginia schools going to California, both of whom need wins badly to shore up their Tournament resumes, neither of whom is a lock to actually win these games.

C Games

NCAAW: #182 Binghamton at #97 Vermont (-11.5), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Likely for the America East crown. Vermont is quietly a top-100 team and has held up well against better competition, as they don't turn it over and protect the defensive boards well.

NCAAW: #64 Missouri at #14 Tennessee (-19), 6:30 PM ET, SECN+. I do not think much of this Mizzou team, and it's unlikely Tennessee can go much beyond the Sweet Sixteen this year. This is on here for one reason: it's former Tennessee HC Kellie Harper's first visit to Knoxville since being fired after the 2023-24 season.

NCAAW: #48 Florida at #11 Oklahoma (-17), 7 PM ET, SECN+. This is probably an easy Oklahoma win, but in the event it isn't, Florida has started to find something defensively as of late and has done a good job forcing turnovers through Liv McGill and crew.

#164 Marist at #182 Merrimack (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Merrimack is very, very likely going to win the MAAC, but I'm not 100% sold they are the MAAC's best team. Marist grades out better at Torvik. FWIW I think this is the single best game on the entire MAAC slate this year, so if you're intrigued give it a shot.

#104 Hofstra (-2) at #163 Charleston, 7 PM ET, Flo Sports. I've said my piece on the CAA already. I believe Hofstra is the league's actual best team and is the one with the best shot to win a Tournament game, which means to me that we'll see UNCW take the league again this March.

#204 Tennessee-Martin at #239 Lindenwood (-1), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN+. This one is for the OVC regular season title. Lindenwood IS eligible for the NCAA Tournament, which I wasn't 100% sure of. There would be a special cruelty in them winning the OVC Tournament while Tennessee-Martin moves to 0-for-35 in seeing March Madness, so I'll admit I'm biased for Martin here.

NCAAW: #81 Santa Clara at #93 Oregon State (-1), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Depending on how the rest of the league shakes out, this may only be for second in the WCC, but that's a very important piece in the WCC's ladder format. The top two teams get the mega-bye to the semifinals. Gonzaga has a great shot at getting one, while Santa Clara and Oregon State must scrap it out with Loyola Marymount and Portland for the other.

Friday, February 13

A Game

#9 Michigan State (-4) at #40 Wisconsin, 8 PM ET, FOX. Fine, I'll reuse the meme, but for one player in particular.

You want to see Jeremy Fears trip another player. You do. You don't think you do! But you need a villain, and Dan Hurley just lost a game, and the New England Patriots just got rocked in the Super Bowl. Duke lost. Charles Bediako could be ruled ineligible by the time this post goes up. You need a new villain. There is a 0% chance Jeremy Fears can ever touch the heights of villainry that Grayson Allen did circa 2017, but admit it: you want to see how far he can take it, don't you?

The Non-D1 Game of the Week

D3: #41 Colby at #1 Trinity (CT) (-20.5), 7 PM ET, streaming. This is your chance to learn and watch Trinity basketball on a lighter night. They’re a clear and obvious favorite for the D3 title and play a lovely brand of basketball, centered around completely owning the paint on both ends of the court. HC James Cosgrove has possibly aged out of Division I job contention as he’s in his mid-50s, but a guy who may be the best coach in school history at three different places has gotta get more publicity. Sam Federman, if you’re reading this…

B Games

NCAAW: #52 Princeton at #60 Columbia (-1.5), 7 PM ET, ESPNU. Princeton’s play has slipped somewhat over the last month, and while they’re still likely to be above the at-large cutline, it’s no longer clear and obvious that they’re the best team in the Ivy. They could go a long way towards reassuring everyone of their status by winning this game.

#79 George Mason at #82 George Washington (-3), 7 PM ET, CBSSN. This is the second Battle of the Georges this year, the first of which was awesome. I mentioned Mason earlier as a team that needs wins, but let’s talk George Washington, a team I find erratic and intriguing for A-10 Tournament purposes. Their 3-7 record over their last 10 games sounds awful, but they’ve played like a top-90 team during this stretch, which would make them a top five team in the league. I’m still a believer in their ability to make some surprising noise next month if fully healthy.

C Games

#208 Quinnipiac at #178 Siena (-4), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Serious question: is this game’s winner the next coach of the Syracuse Orange?

#25 Saint Louis (-22) at #311 Loyola Chicago, 8:30 PM ET, ESPN2. This is a rare time for SLU to get the Big Network Treatment prior to March, so I have it included. Now, to begin praying for Loyola to avoid having one of their occasional games where they look like a functional basketball team so we can continue selling this SLU group as a legitimate top 20 team.

#219 Ohio at #85 Miami (OH) (-13), 9 PM ET, ESPN. Guys, they’re here until they lose. That’s the rule.