Week 14 Weekend Watchlist

Welcome to another edition of the Weekend Watchlist! Before you dive in, check out yesterday's top performances and today's Watchability Index.

Saturday, February 7

The A+ Game of the Week

#5 Illinois at #10 Michigan State (-1), 8 PM ET, FOX.

I’m sure the Big Spot/Situation crowd loves Michigan State at Breslin after back to back losses, but that sort of narrative doesn’t particularly interest me, and I think the schematics are going to favor the Illini, particularly on the offensive end. 

I understand the inclination to want to take the ball out of Keaton Wagler’s hands, and this is the most efficient on-ball/ball screen offense in the entire country thanks to him, but the Illini spacing and shooting has been an atom bomb against hedge/help heavy defenses like Nebraska and Purdue, and that’s exactly what they’re going to face from Sparty today. Northwestern even went all out blitz against Wagler, and the Illini just picked off catch and shoots at a league-play high rate. With that said, let me share a clip of Wagler not finding a shooter on the perimeter, but rather spinning through the help and making this pass.

Sparty denies the rim at an elite level (1st percentile rim rate allowed), but there are few, if any, offenses that can make that irrelevant like Illinois. For example, the Illini had a grand total of 8 rim attempts vs Purdue and proceeded to put 1.4 PPP on the Boilers at Mackey. Obviously Wagler had probably the best individual scoring effort of the entire college basketball season, but no one can completely mitigate a sellout rim denial defense like this Illini offense. 

Much has been made of Jeremy Fears’ on-court idiocy, but I doubt Izzo reprimands him beyond a brief benching to start the game, if that. His on-ball and dribble snaking in the midrange vs the Illini passive drop is absolutely vital for Sparty to keep up offensively, as is Jaxon Kohler reviving the halcyon days of the noncon/early January when he looked like a legitimate stretch shooter (and if Illinois is struggling to keep Fears out of the paint, watch for the zone from the Illini, as Sparty is clearly a great zone candidate outside of the offensive rebounding exposure). Kohler has gone 6-31 from 3 over the last 3 weeks, and his continued lack of shooting will be exacerbated by the loss of Divine Ugochukwu, one of the few off-ball shooters this offense had. With Illinois being a strong transition denial defense (35th percentile) and strong defensive rebounding team (19th nationally in DREB% per KenPom), Sparty’s offensive avenues outside of Fears being an elite dribble creator are limited. He has to play like the best PG on the floor for MSU to have a shot. Otherwise Sparty is just praying the Illini secondary and tertiary scorers have an off day shooting the ball on the road in a hostile environment, which honestly has yet to happen to them. Illinois is 6-0 on the road with the most efficient road offense in the country. - Jordan Majewski

A Games

#22 Alabama at #27 Auburn (-2), 4 PM ET, ESPN2.

The only two teams in the country that rank in both the top 20 in offensive rebounding rate and free throw rate are Texas and Auburn. That is probably bad news for Alabama - as the Crimson Tide are less than a month removed from their first home loss to a non-Top 25 KenPom team in four years when the Longhorns came in and got the job done 92-88. Texas took five more free throws and grabbed 10 more rebounds than Alabama in that one.

Because Alabama's patented drop coverage does not force any turnovers, grabbing rebounds is extra critical so they don't get killed in overall shot volume. The Crimson Tide are 1-6 against power conference opponents when those teams grab over 37% of their misses, allowing at least 1.17 points per possession in all seven games. They are 8-1 against power conference opponents when those teams grab 37% or fewer, allowing over 1.17 points per possession just once. 37% also happens to be Auburn's season average offensive rebounding rate.

Alabama has no clear option to defend Auburn's best player in Keyshawn Hall at 6-foot-7, 240 lbs. Amari Allen and Taylor Bol Bowen are both fighting injuries and are giving up 35 pounds in that matchup. None of Alabama's bigs can keep up with him on the perimeter.

The Crimson Tide's best chance in this one will be to replicate Auburn's only home loss of the season: when Texas A&M went in and out shot them dramatically from deep. The Aggies hit 13 threes on 43% and held the Tigers to just 27%. Those will have to be the approximate long-ball numbers in this game for Alabama to overcome the free throw line and shot volume discrepancy.

And from a narrative perspective: an impressive resume for first-year head coach Steven Pearl that includes wins against St. John's, NC State, Arkansas, Florida, and Texas, would get one of its most notable ones in a rivalry home with if they get the job done here. - Matthew Winick

#3 Duke (-6) at #30 North Carolina, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN.

I'm not sure what's more interesting - the fact that North Carolina has only lost this season when allowing opponents to shoot 50% or better from deep, or that it's already happened five times against them this season (they are 1-4 in those games). A part of it is surely luck: the Tar Heels are right in the middle of the pack nationally in uncontested catch-and-shoot threes allowed per game, but opponents are hitting 44.5% of those looks, the ninth-worst mark in the entire country. Then again, there is no luck involved with makes like this.

The biggest storyline here, obviously besides the fact that it's Duke/North Carolina, is the battle between surefire lottery picks at the 4-spot, Caleb Wilson and Cameron Boozer. Perhaps my favorite stat with this matchup is that according to CBB Analytics, Cameron Boozer's closest ACC analytical comps over the last seven years: Cooper Flagg and Caleb Wilson, followed by Zion Williamson and Paolo Banchero. Stop hogging all the good players, blue bloods!

Boozer is the evidently superior shooter, and a better passer, but other than that, there are a ton of similarities between these two forwards. Perhaps most importantly, they both draw over six fouls per 40 minutes, which means it is likely unsustainable for them to be guarding each other all game long.

Both starting bigs in Henri Veesaar and Patrick Ngongba should be able to hang in stretches, but the bench may play a big key. Duke has the best bench defender in the country with Maliq Brown, who's versatility should play a massive role in this game, and North Carolina will likely need to counter with Jarin Stevenson, more of a wing in a forward's body. Advantage Duke in that regard.

Shot volume should be a relative wash here: Duke is an elite turnover defense, but North Carolina doesn't cough it up. Both teams are tremendous on the glass. Inevitably, the little things will matter in this one. Guard play for two teams where that is not their strength. Coaching adjustments. Home court.

But I keep on going back to that three-point thing. Duke is shooting just 31.6% from deep in 10 league games. Only Boozer is above 35% in ACC play. Isaiah Evans, Dame Sarr, Nik Khamenia, and Darren Harris are a combined 39/138 (28.2%). Shooting was seen as a strength for this Blue Devils team coming into the year, and it has turned out to be arguably their biggest weakness.

Duke will not win this game at Carolina shooting their ACC average from deep. Against a Tar Heels team that has been both unlucky, and mistake-prone with their coverage, Duke will have to capitalize on the road. Inevitably, that will be the biggest key in this contest. - Matthew Winick

#17 Tennessee at #31 Kentucky (-1), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN.

The Rick Barnes/Mark Pope crossovers are essentially one Sweet Sixteen demolition away from being the college hoops version of this to me.

In all four games played, Tennessee has won the dreaded Shot Quality battle, has outshot Kentucky from 2, has kept the pace low (no UK/UT game has gone over 67 possessions, surprisingly), has won the battle of the boards thrice, and has won both rebounding and turnover margin twice. Yet: 1-3, and a truly inexplicable 1-3 given that Tennessee led this exact Kentucky team by 17 at one point barely a month ago. How do you explain it?

Well, we all love it when a nerd comes in and tells us it's simply bad luck, right? I have no other explanation for how, against Tennessee and Tennessee only, the Wildcats have shot 41 of 87 (47%) from 3 since Mark Pope got to campus. Against all other SEC foes combined, UK is 37.3% from deep. A 37% hit rate from deep would give Kentucky nine fewer threes across these four games, which would mean Tennessee could just as easily be 3-1 in this series with the lone loss an acceptable one at Rupp last February. But if aunts had balls, etc., etc.

I do think Tennessee must start this game off with early paint penetration. Tennessee's first four possessions in TBA a month ago all featured at least one paint touch, usually multiple, and at the break of that game, Tennessee led the points in the paint battle 16-8. The script flipped for two reasons in the second half that relate to each other: Kentucky hit six of their first seven three-point attempts, which caused Tennessee to aggressively chase these looks off the line...which led to more Kentucky driving lanes, more fouls at the rim, and more UK points in the paint. Tennessee's path to resetting the series is fairly clear to me: own the paint and stop overreacting when Kentucky gets hot.

Also: despite their 7-1 run of play as of late, Kentucky only rates out as the nation's 38th-best team during that span, two spots behind a Washington team that is 3-5 over the last four weeks. Why? Well, how about this, from Hoop Explorer:

• First 32 minutes of last 8 games: -12 scoring margin, 37% 3PT offensively (37% 3PT defensively)
• Final 8 minutes of last 8 games: +50 scoring margin, 40% 3PT offensively (14% 3PT defensively)

That latter number was more extreme prior to Oklahoma hitting a couple on Wednesday, which took UK's 3PT% gap from 45%-8% over the final 8 minutes of games in the last month to a mere 40%-14%. It's not just a Vandy thing either, as some UK fans will claim; the blowout of Oklahoma cancels that out, and Kentucky has been outscored in the first 32 minutes in five of their last eight games. Either this Kentucky team is the most clutch Kentucky team in modern history, or some amount of regression to the mean is forthcoming. Will it be here? I don't know, I've waited four games for it now and still haven't seen it. - Will Warren

#6 Houston (-1) at #19 BYU, 10:30 PM ET, ESPN.

BYU is drowning in the deep end of the Big 12 right now, having lost four of its last five games. Granted, three of those were high-end Q1A games against elite opponents, and the fourth was a tough roadie against NCAA Tournament hopeful Oklahoma State, so it can generally be forgiven.

However, it was often ugly: BYU trailed by 15+ in all four losses, continuing an alarming trend from early in the season: trailed UConn by 20, trailed Clemson by 22, trailed Dayton by 10. The Cougars have consistently limped out of the starting blocks.

Fortunately, Kevin Young’s team gets a nice, cozy, get right game at home against…oh god, Houston??? It’s hard to imagine a worse opponent for a reeling squad – especially considering Houston beat BYU by 31 and 20 in two meetings last year.

BYU’s reliance on three central scorers – AJ Dybantsa, Rob Wright, Richie Saunders – may not be a recipe for success against Houston’s army of terrific individual defenders. Wright, in particular, has struggled against big, physical backcourt defenders – of which Houston has many. Fortunately, Dybantsa likely lives at the free throw line, and Keba Keita’s tireless work on the offensive glass should secure plenty of second shot opportunities.

BYU must also figure out how to generate stops against a potent Flemings-led attack – and the defense is raising major alarm bells. Per Bart Torvik, since January 10^th, BYU has the 159^th-ranked defense in the country – a gruesome number. Some of that is bad variance in three-point shooting, but they have also completely stopped forcing turnovers and struggled to keep opposing guards corralled off the bounce. Flemings could be in for a huge game as a slasher.

Houston’s offensive rebounding could be neutralized by BYU’s strong defensive glass work, but a better rebounding BYU team surrendered offensive rebound rates of 46.9% and 32.4% last season. It’s extremely tough to keep Houston off the boards, especially since BYU’s guards don’t help much in that regard. - Jim Root

B Games

#40 Wisconsin at #35 Indiana (-4), 12 PM ET, FOX.

Indiana probably should have come home from the west coast with two wins, but the 2OT vs UCLA affected them late at USC, as they didn’t have the legs to stay in front of the Muss Bus’s big wings without fouling (doubled up at the free throw line) or hit open jump shots. IU actually tripled USC in catch and shoot rate and high quality shot rate (per Synergy data), and halved USC’s average 2PT attempt distance, but no one could make the shots except Lamar Wilkerson, with Tucker DeVries and new floor spacer Nick Dorn going a combined 3-20 from 3, a lot of them wide open. In a tough scheduling break for the Hoosiers, they somehow come home from the west coast trip to face a Wisconsin team who had the week off. But more importantly, the schematics aren’t particularly ideal, as Wisconsin’s drop coverage generally mitigates catch and shoots and ball movement, which is where the IU offense thrives. 

The good news for IU is that Wisconsin generates little offense at the rim, where the Hoosier frontcourt can be overpowered despite their own drop coverage acting as a deterrent. The bad news is that the Badger stretch bigs have finally started to hit some jump shots between Nolan Winter waking up and now Aussie Rapp having his best game of the year against Ohio State. The bigger issue for IU however is that Nick Boyd and John Blackwell have been outstanding in ball screen manipulation and scoring for nearly a month straight now, an area where the Hoosiers have struggled all season, but were brutalized further on the west coast with Tayton Conerway mostly sidelined. Generally these two are mirrors of each other offensively in terms of spacing, ball movement, and 3PT attempt rate, and the same is true on the defensive end. Perhaps the difference is Assembly Hall, but Wisconsin has been the 2nd most efficient road offense in the Big .Ten, and I have a little more trust in their on-ball creation vs IU’s drop coverage than vice versa. [UPDATE: Rapp has been ruled out] - Jordan Majewski

#60 Virginia Tech at #23 NC State (-10), 12 PM ET, The CW.

I say it almost every NC State preview I write, but if you hedge/play two to the ball against Quadir Copeland’s ball screen, you’re going to expose yourself to a roasting given his passing ability and the Pack’s weapons on the perimeters. Against back to back hedge primaries in Wake Forest and SMU, Copeland has posted an absolutely insane 26 assists to 1 turnover, while the Pack have shot 32-64 from 3. You must drop on Copeland’s ball screen, which Virginia Tech has generally done with Christian Gurdak, although less so with the athleticism of Tobi Lawal and Amani Hansberry. But I’m sure Mike Young’s base coverage will be drop to make Copeland a scorer, which he’s actually been more efficient at this year. 

Ironically, NC State was playing drop coverage for probably the first time, at least extensively, against SMU in the first half, and it was definitely not working. Will Wade went back to 1-5 switching with some hedging mixed in the second half, and I would think that’s what you’ll see against the Hokies, as Neo Avdalas has been brutal when seeing two on the ball and help (he’s been brutal in general for nearly a month now) and Ben Hammond is far more of a scorer than a facilitator on the ball- you want him to give up the ball, especially with the Hokies being an inefficient catch and shoot offense (20th percentile rate, 36th percentile efficiency rating). VT’s is a prolific PNR offense, which is difficult to get into consistently against this defensive scheme (7th percentile PNR rate allowed, per Synergy data). The Hokies might throw the optimal defensive coverage at Copeland and this offense, and the Pack aren’t going to continue to shoot 50% from 3, but I’m not sure the Hokies can do much on the offensive end to capitalize on that. - Jordan Majewski

#89 Miami (OH) (-3) at #165 Marshall, 4 PM ET, ESPN+.

This is The Game for Miami (Ohio). A win here gets them all the way up to a 13% chance of going 31-0, which only sounds really low until you're informed their season-opening odds of doing that were no more than 0.1% at very best. The dream season continues, and all that stands in the way of yet another undefeated week is a 15-8 Marshall team that has allowed 104 (Virginia) and 89 (Elon) points to the two top-100 offenses they've faced.

Of the two options there, Miami is much more similar to Elon than a Virginia. Against Marshall, Elon leaned heavily into a 5-out lineup that took over 54% of its shots from three. More educationally for you, the reader, they used Kacper Klaczek, a 6'8" stretch 4, as their main screener. I would not classify this as a direct pick-and-pop, but it carries enough of the characteristics of a big being a threat from inside and out that I'll count it.

This would terrify me as Marshall if I were about to play Miami, merely the third-highest user of pick-and-pops in all of Division I. Eian Elmer (starting 3) is shooting 38% off of these looks this year, while small-ball 5 Almar Atlason is at 36%. These are dangerous matchups already without including the rest of the offense, which is shooting a hilarious 68% from 2 over their last 10 games and last finished a game under 1.06 PPP in the previous season.

The good news for Marshall is that Miami's defense has held exactly two of their last 15 opponents below 1 PPP, so they'll always have a chance. Marshall's own offense (143rd) is actually the sixth-strongest Miami will have played this year. It's a good sign in some aspect that, in regulation, they held four of those five (plus playing Buffalo twice) to 76 or less, but this is a Marshall team that's becoming difficult to defend in P&R thanks to Matt Van Komen, who Miami really doesn't have an obvious answer for. As usual, you can anticipate this is a race to 80, and therefore, a race to 24-0...which, hey, even Murray State only got to 23-0. - Will Warren

#52 Akron (-6) at #143 Troy, 6 PM ET, ESPN2.

Akron is coming off their two least efficient offensive outings of the season, but still beat their rival Kent State by double digits (KSU was an appalling 1-23 from 3 in that game) and followed that up with another win at Eastern Michigan despite their worst offensive output of the year by a wide margin. Obviously heading to Troy in the heart of the conference season isn’t the most ideal way to course correct your offense if you’re John Groce, but in theory the Zips’ ball movement and spacing should enjoy Troy’s zone pressure, much like they did against Tulane’s similarish defensive scheme (1.24 PPP in a romp). Akron has made the 3 ball at a 5% lower clip on the road than at the JAR, but their road defense is actually the 12th best in the country per Torvik filtering, mostly thanks to opponents shooting 29% from 3 on high volume in their own gyms (worth noting Troy has shot just 33% from 3 on high volume at home). Troy is once again one of the more prolific “rim and 3” schemes in midmajordom, and run heavily through PNR (92nd percentile overall rate, per Synergy data). Akron plays a small but versatile lineup which features a lot of switching in their PNR coverage, but that could be problematic with the way Troy creates mismatches with point-wing Victor Valdes in ball screens. Schematically I’m partial to Akron, situationally I would think a noncon wrench thrown in the middle of heated conference play generally favors the home team. - Jordan Majewski

#32 Clemson (-2) at #61 California, 8 PM ET, ACC Network.

Clemson has long been a team whose style translates well on the road: they take you out of transition entirely via disciplined defense and careful ball control, and they control the defensive glass via a deep and physical stable of big men. This year’s edition fits that bill perfectly, as Clemson has repeatedly forced transition-heavy teams (BYU, SMU, NC State) into methodical half-court affairs.

Cal has survived (and arguably thrived) despite getting thrashed inside the arc. Per KenPom, the Golden Bears rank dead last in the ACC in average two-point attempt distance on both ends of the court – they take long twos, and they let you get to the rim. It’s hard to fathom how that is a sustainable approach, especially since they are not a good rebounding unit, either (last in the ACC in offensive rebound rate, 14^th in defensive rebound rate.

Those factors are alarming for this matchup, as the RJ Godfrey / Nick Davidson / Carter Welling triumvirate could bludgeon the Bears inside. Starting center Lee Dort has missed three consecutive games, and though two of those were wins, his absence could be acutely felt against Clemson.

Cal’s ultimate equalizer has been perimeter shooting, with the forward tandem of Chris Bell and John Camden providing elite spacing for quick guards Justin Pippen and Dai Dai Ames. Forcing Clemson’s bigs to defend out beyond the arc could keep this close, and of course Clemson is making the loooong trip across the country. Seems like a slow but efficient game that hinges on Cal’s success from deep. - Jim Root

#7 Florida (-4) at #29 Texas A&M, 8:30 PM ET, SEC Network.

It's been quite the week for Ryen Russillo. Now, I cannot mention what he did on Instagram as I was writing this, and I do not think you should look it up, but please be aware he did a thing he should not have done. Outside of that, Mr. Russillo has had a heroic run in terms of one very specific viewpoint he brings up way too often on his shows: being more impressed by a loss than a win.

Texas A&M got to test this first-hand in the midweek with their road loss at Alabama. See, Alabama has their own saga going on, with the status of Charles Bediako undetermined as I type. They survived a remarkable shooting night from TAMU (a 13-31 3PT night and a 59% eFG), scored 1.28 PPP against a defense that hadn't given up more than 1.2 this year, and had a rare night of winning the rebounding battle. Yet, as far as I can tell, the story is all about how well TAMU acquitted themselves in their first real test against an upper-echelon SEC side since their overtime loss at Tennessee in mid-January.

This game will be a fun test of that theory against a Florida team that looks like the obvious best team in the SEC. The Gators haven't changed their starting lineup at any point this year, but since unearthing Isaiah Brown from the recycle bin after the UConn loss and giving Urban Klavzar more on-court time, the Gators have played like the nation's fourth-best team (!) since mid-December, with a top-10 offense and defense. Part of this is merely shooting poorly (31%) from 3 during that run as opposed to being south of 25% like they were for most of the first month, but you could actually argue Florida has been the nation's fourth-best team and is still unlucky: they've been outshot 37%-31% from deep and have still been a top-four team.

This matchup simply scares me for a TAMU side without a great frontcourt. Florida projects to have a massive advantage on the interior. There's some moderate similarities in matchup to the Tennessee game from January where A&M took what's looking like a 4 or 5-seed Vols team to overtime, but even there, the Aggies had three players foul out, gave up 24 offensive rebounds, and made it to OT mostly via Tennessee's complete inability to hit a jumper. I'd like this to be higher, and I know Reed Arena should have a great crowd, but an A&M offense that needs to dominate in transition and from three against a Florida defense that limits transition beautifully and allows relatively few kickout threes seems like a bad matchup. - Will Warren

#115 UC Irvine at #122 UC Santa Barbara (-1), 10 PM ET, ESPNU.

After a non-conference run that made it look like UC San Diego would ride out a coaching transition without any issue, they're now a mid-pack team in a Big West that's gone back to Ol' Reliable: UC Irvine, now 9-2 and all alone atop the conference standings. Their top foes: Hawaii, who is basically Island UC Irvine, and UC Santa Barbara, who is happy to once more be back in yearly battles with UCI and Russ Turner.

The series has tilted back towards Irvine as of late, with Turner and crew taking five in a row and six of the last eight. The common theme in these wins, unsurprisingly, is choking the life out of a UCSB offense that tends to rely on talent over creativity sometimes. Outside of a total blip of a 97-88 game late last season, UCSB's scores in losses have been pretty telling: 52, 59, 61, 69, and 60 points from 2021 to now.

This game lies heavily upon how much UCI can ugly it up defensively, because I don't think anyone has a ton of confidence in the 'Eaters to put up a ton of points, even against a weak UCSB defense. Irvine rates as a mid-pack offense in conference play, and it's only because they're so good on the offensive boards they're that high. However, as usual, these guys are unbelievable in interior defense, particularly at funneling guards to the midrange and shutting down passing lanes quickly.

UCSB's most effective means of generating points this year has unsurprisingly come via Aidan Mahaney's downhill attacks and/or Hosana Kitenge finding Mahaney for threes via post-ups. Considering UCI is the very best in the Big West at stopping downhill attacks and is exceptional at limiting kickout threes, it's no wonder they're typically a poor matchup for UCSB. Instead, I would look to Kitenge to swing the game here: if he can go 1-on-1 consistently in the post and succeed, it tilts the scales the Gauchos' way in what feels like a very low-scoring game to me. I'd guess the winner falls short of 65 points. - Will Warren

#58 Boise State at #46 New Mexico (-6), 10 PM ET, CBSSN.

Two teams with drastically different outlooks square off Saturday night, but the overall records don’t capture the moment as 14-9 (6-6) Boise State is coming off an overtime win against Nevada and 18-5 (9-3) New Mexico suffered a 20-point loss to Utah State at home, their first loss in the Pit since 2024. Leon Rice’s Broncos are looking to sweep the regular season matchup and take one last game in Albuquerque before moving to the Pac-12.

For Eric Olen’s Lobos, their defense hasn’t been as stifling the last couple of opportunities. They entered last weekend with opponents holding a 46.11% effective field goal percentage, and in their last two games, San Jose State and the Aggies combined to hold a 57.38% effective field goal percentage. Notably, it’s been guards getting downhill and scoring inside the arc against New Mexico, which makes the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde performances of Dylan Andrews for Boise State the big factor in this one.

Andrews is coming off a 25 points and 6 assists performance against Nevada. The senior guard has as many games with an offensive rating under 80, five, as he has with an offensive rating of 120 or higher. He’s shot 46.4% from the field in the last three games after shooting 30.5% over the 10 previous games. Leon Rice gave credit to Andrews, making strides in further buying into the coaching his staff had been trying to give him all season.

But the marquee players on either side of this one reside in the paint, as New Mexico big man Tomislav Buljan goes up against a deep Boise State frontcourt that is solid at limiting second-chance point opportunities and preventing offensive rebounds. Buljan is averaging 5.2 offensive rebounds over his last six games, while the Broncos have allowed Mountain West opponents just 6.8 offensive rebounds per game this season. - Tuck Clarry

C Games

#68 Syracuse at #18 Virginia (-13), 12 PM ET, ESPN.

With the confidence of having an elite rim protection tandem (Onyenso and Grunloh have the highest and 13th highest block rates in the country), Virginia runs one of the more devout drop coverages in the country. This in turn has led to a 1st percentile catch and shoot rate with the ability to stay out of rotation. Syracuse has little to no spacing and has struggled offensively against every strong rim defense they’ve encountered, with the exception of Drexel, who they were able to beat in transition. With Donnie Freeman likely mitigated, Nait George and JJ Starling have been inefficient ball screen creators, which UVA’s defense funnels, and the Cavs have allowed very little in transition, outside of the Heels loss. You can however pick on a couple of UVA’s perimeter defenders in isolation, which is the Orange’s preferred MO offensively- but obviously far from the most efficient way to operate. 

Offensively it’s a little less cut and dried for the Hoos, as Syracuse is actually pretty similar to Virginia in that they leverage William Kyle’s strong rim protection to take away the 3PT line completely, and UVA hasn’t been particularly efficient in ball screen/dribble offense vs fellow drop coverages, while simultaneously struggling to make shots from the perimeter in ACC play. Ryan Odom offenses however have long been known for elite actions off the ball, and Syracuse has tended to get lost in the sauce in that regard, grading out in the 12th percentile in off-ball defensive efficiency. Red Autry raised eyebrows when he brought Donnie Freeman off the bench against Notre Dame before being reinserted into the starting lineup against UNC, but ironically Sadiq White’s “Dillon Mitchell” style defense would probably be a better matchup against the versatility of Thijs De Ridder. Like most Syracuse games, I’m struggling to come up with a case for the Orange in this matchup, unless they were spurred on by the improbably bizarre comeback against the Heels. Even a continued poor UVA shooting performance can be managed by their ability to dominate the offense glass in this matchup. - Jordan Majewski

#25 Arkansas (-6) at #84 Mississippi State, 12 PM ET, ESPN2.

This would typically have all the hallmarks of a get-right game for Arkansas. They've had a full week to stew on their upsetting home loss to Kentucky, this is their worst (by KenPom) opponent left on the schedule, and they still have the best-shooting offense of any SEC team in conference play. Now, to take a big sip of my 5:59 AM coffee and check the injury report.

Oh no.

Neither Knox or Wagner are that important to the Arkansas formula, but considering the Razorbacks have had a nearly perfect bill of health all season long, this throws a sudden wrench into their plans. Based on the last five games, Arkansas now needs to find a way to replace roughly 20% of their collective on-court time, which doesn't sound like a lot until you see how this would work from Hoop-Explorer's viewpoint based on lineups without those two.

• PG: Acuff, 40 minutes
• SG: Thomas, 40 minutes
• SF: Richmond, 35 minutes; Sealy, 5 minutes
• PF: Brazile, 36 minutes (!); Richmond, 4 minutes
• C: Ewin, 24 minutes; Pringle, 16 minutes

Considering Isaiah Sealy has not played for Arkansas in over two weeks and has accumulated all of three minutes in the Hogs' last six games, John Calipari is essentially working with a six-man rotation here. Any sort of foul trouble is extremely troublesome, which likely means Arkansas will play a bit more hands-off defensively today. I can't say I love that thanks to Arkansas's already highly problematic play away from Bud Walton, along with this being the same frontcourt that has routinely gotten rocked on the boards away from home.

There's also the rust vs. rest factor. In theory I'd think the week-long break in SEC play is great, but the data shows a slightly below 50% ATS over the last five years post-break, and Mississippi State got the week off too, anyway. On their front, I would note that since December 1, this State team has quietly played like a top-50 defense and is top-70 overall, partially thanks to the emergence of Sergej Macura at the 4 as the best two-way frontcourt piece on the team. - Will Warren

#48 Baylor at #4 Iowa State (-16), 2 PM ET, ESPN.

The most exciting part of this Baylor season came back in November in the Players Era Festival, when the Bears closed out a 2-1 run by dumping 91 points on a San Diego State defense that will probably finish top-20 at KenPom. The second-most exciting part of this Baylor season will be when it ends.

No team has been a worse matchup for Baylor over the last five years than Iowa State. The Cyclones are a perfect 9-0 ATS against Scott Drew, have never been held below 68 by Baylor, and have beaten the Bears by double digits in five of their last seven battles. What it feels like watching the games is that, since Baylor's title run, Iowa State more or less does the Baylor thing better. They keep teams away from the rim and out of the paint better. They force more turnovers. They give up fewer open threes. Their wings and forward options are pretty much always better than Baylor's, especially this year.

The lone way to keep this one interesting for a full 40 is for Baylor to put together their best 40-minute performance in P&R defense all season, along with simply walling off the paint at all costs. The 'best' way for Baylor to cover this would be their base drop with Caden Powell at the 5, but they did this already and arguably got off light with a 70-60 loss at home where they managed to give up a 26-4 run. I just think this matchup's a bad one for this particular edition of Iowa State, who seems to struggle most against teams that truly sit deep and allow a lot of threes. That does not describe Baylor whatsoever, though it does describe the Kansas/Houston duo looming next weekend. - Will Warren

#173 Siena (-1) at #242 Saint Peter's, 2 PM ET, ESPN+.

It's okay if you haven't watched either of these teams yet this year. I wouldn't expect the average college basketball fan to have done so. Both teams won on Thursday night to improve to 10-3 in the MAAC, one game behind Merrimack for first place.

Saint Peter's switches up its defenses from different versions of a zone into an aggressive man-to-man based on what the game situation calls for. It has made a living off of forcing turnovers, but Siena is the top team in the MAAC in terms of protecting the ball, and has a scorching hot offense. The Saints haven't scored fewer than 1.14 points per possession since January 11, and are shooting an absurd 64% inside the arc in their last five games specifically. Siena's drivers, Justice Shoats and Gavin Doty, have been playing incredible basketball, but how will they react to the Peacocks' style on the defensive end?

Matching up with Saint Peter's underrated frontcourt of Zaakir Williamson, Lucas Scroggins, and Jahki Gupton will be a tough task for freshman Francis Folefac, but he's been up to the challenge all year, and Riley Mulvey's post-passing and screening has been unleashed over the six game winning streak.

The Peacocks haven't lost at home in MAAC play, and shoot 7% better inside the arc at home than on the road for the season. To me, this game comes down to whether Saint Peter's can control the shot volume battle and turn this into a game of physicality, or if Siena can turn it into a game of poise and skill.

Of Note: I will be in attendance for this game, and Saint Peter's is 5-0 this year with me at the game (Siena is also 2-0 with me in attendance). - Sam Federman

#200 Missouri State at #87 Liberty (-10), 2 PM ET, CBSSN.

If you’re into point-centers, Liberty hosting Missouri State is the game for you. Zach Cleveland is (or should be at least) a household name in terms of passing ability out of the 5 spot

and he’s surrounded by just unconscious shooters in Richie McKay’s constantly cutting and screening motion system. The Bears however have their own passing big man in Keith Palek

and even a second frontcourt passer in Round Mound of Rebound the II Michael Osei-Bonsu

which makes them uniquely structured against Liberty’s pack line because they don’t play out of ball screens and can pass out of the post. The problem is Missouri State doesn’t shoot the ball anywhere near Liberty’s accuracy despite their 98th percentile catch and shoot rate. The Bears can supplement on the offensive glass here, and they’re strong defensively in terms of catch and shoot denial (although home teams have shot 40% from 3 against them on a fairly robust rate) and bumping cutters, grading out in the 90th percentile in efficiency in that regard. The Bears are uniquely structured enough against Liberty’s defensive scheme that they could cause some issues for the Flames, but I ultimately don’t think they have the shotmaking chops to hand Liberty their first CUSA loss. - Jordan Majewski

#54 Oklahoma State at #2 Arizona (-20), 4 PM ET, ESPN.

The Pokes got a big one on Wednesday, taking down BYU in a 99-92 victory that stretched the limits of how little defense can be played in a 40-minute game of high-major, Division I basketball. Oklahoma State was scoring 1.27 points per possession, was just shy of hitting a centennial, and that’s with them missing 12 free throws.

But Steve Lutz’s team has to move on quickly as they head to Tucson to play an Arizona team now ranked first in the AP Poll, coming off a full week of rest. The Cowboys will need another stellar game from their bucket-getting wing Anthony Roy, who has scored 26 and 30 points over his last two games. Roy is averaging 19.1 points per game in league play and has the fifth-best effective field goal percentage of 63%. Roy gets most of his points from attempts above the three-point breaks and they can be –uh– pretty far behind those breaks.

As much as stacked up against Oklahoma State with the Wildcats’ extended time to rest and prepare for Saturday’s matchup, this does have the makings of a potential trap game for Tommy Lloyd’s team, who will be playing Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU and Houston following this game, with their trip to Phog Allen Fieldhouse coming as early as Monday night.

The talent discrepancy is pretty stark: Oklahoma State is in the bottom 5 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate, while Arizona ranks third in both. The Cowboys are good at manufacturing opponent turnovers, but can that really be counted on against the second-lowest turnover-prone team in the conference?

KenPom has this game as a 20-point win for Arizona, a team that is off to its best start to a season in program history. But if Oklahoma State stays hot and makes threes, this game could end up being a bit of a sweat considering the Wildcats’ aversion to matching perimeter shot attempts. The win over BYU has Oklahoma State now as a last four in, according to Basket Under Review’s Lukas Harkins.

A shocking road win against almost-definitely-a-1-seed Arizona would ease a helluva lot of stress for Lutz and company come Selection Sunday. - Tuck Clarry

#145 Saint Joseph's at #80 George Mason (-8), 4 PM ET, ESPN+.

A sickening and deeply upsetting home loss by George Mason to Duquesne earlier this week has likely nuked their at-large odds, short of winning out from here, which would mean closing with wins over VCU and Saint Louis in the season's final week. Much as I've enjoyed GMU this year, their level of play lately is really worrisome. Rating out as the nation's 123rd-best team over your last 10 games, per Torvik, is a likely indicator these guys have simply heavily overachieved and may be running out of steam.

Conversely, would you like to know who the second-best team over the last 10 games in the A-10 has been? Why, Saint Joseph's, the team whose coach left right before the season and is riding out the storm with interim Steve Donahue. These guys have a top-50 defense over the last six weeks, are +7% from 2, and have won seven of eight.

These two have split their four matchups in the Skinn era, and each have pretty similar tells: the wins have seen GMU run SJU off the three-point line and hold SJU to season or near-season lows on catch-and-shoots, while the SJU wins have both come as a result of hitting nine or more threes. This game should be an interesting test, then, as SJU has hit 8+ threes in all of their last eight games...while GMU last gave up nine made threes to Rhode Island on January 3. - Will Warren

#300 Morehead State at #189 UT Martin, 4 PM ET, ESPNU.

Morehead State has dropped two straight in the OVC and is losing ground in the race for the coveted double bye come March, while UT Martin looks for the season sweep of the Eagles and to solidify their spot atop conference standings. UTM trailed by as much as 16 in the 1H in the first meeting at Morehead before holding the Eagles to just 25 points in the 2H. That first meeting should provide some optimism for Morehead however, as they limited UTM’s oversized spread motion offense to their lowest transition rate of the OVC season and their second lowest catch and shoot rate in league play, while tripling the Skyhawks in high quality shot production. That said, UTM’s positionless brand of basketball struggles against defenses that can expose their lack of a true ballhandlers (see Tennessee State), which Morehead generally won’t do. UTM is extremely zealous in their help defense, totally denying the rim and forcing a high 3PT attempt and isolation rate, and Morehead State does not have the spacing or ball movement to capitalize on that. UTM is also undefeated at home with some of the wildest offense/defense splits at home you’ll see. Imagine if this team ever starts making shots in their home gym. - Jordan Majewski

#51 Seton Hall at #75 Creighton (-1), 6 PM ET, Peacock.

These two programs are, indeed, having a mid-off. That is an unkind way to look at it, but I'm not sure what other way you'd look at these two seasons? Seton Hall started off exceptionally hot but has played at the level of the 93rd-best team in America since their road win over Providence. In that same span of time, Creighton is 99th with the nation's 212th-best defense. I guess if there's one question you're looking to solve here, it's stoppable force (SHU's offense) versus overly movable object (the Creighton defense).

The bad news for SHU is just how viscerally this matchup has swung Creighton's way since Shaheen Holloway got to campus. Creighton is 6-1 overall and a perfect 7-0 ATS, with five of the wins by 13 or more. SHU did steal one earlier this year in Creighton's worst offensive game against them by far, but 1) I would argue it's unlikely Creighton shoots 6-27 from 3 a second time; 2) I would also argue Seton Hall stole it in officiating terms, too.

That aside, the teams Creighton's offense generally looks bad against shut down gaps with aggression and don't allow for many straight-line drives to the rim. (Creighton also has issues against teams that offer strong perimeter pressure, which did cause real problems in the first SHU affair.) SHU can do some of that, but the Pirates funnel a good chunk of shots to the rim, which worries me when Creighton's two best offensive pieces these days are Jasen Green (larger wing that can attack downhill) and Nik Graves (smaller guard that can attack downhill). The path to SHU then being in foul trouble for most of this game while playing against a defense that forces more midrange jumpers than most is alarmingly clear. - Will Warren

#37 Santa Clara (-8) at #132 Washington State, 6 PM ET, ESPN+.

Dream with me for a second. Imagine Santa Clara had not faceplanted against Loyola Chicago in a strange pre-Christmas game played in Santa Cruz, giving Herb Sendek’s squad by far the worst loss of any team in real NCAA Tournament consideration. The Broncos would be 21-4 and a shoo-in for the Big Dance!

Even so, they sit atop the WCC standings by a half game and still get to host the Big Bad Zags. This has all the makings of an at-large team, provided they avoid tripping up in some tough-but-winnable games – like this one.

Santa Clara has been a buzzsaw of late, and the Broncos have more than halved their KenPom rank since that stumble against the Ramblers (from 80^th to 37^th). They’ve been excellent on both sides of the ball, and their combination of size and athleticism in the frontcourt plus lethal scoring in the backcourt and on the wings has overwhelmed lesser WCC foes.

Wazzu’s mismatch-hunting is going to struggle here, as the Broncos are generally pretty switchable and love to pressure the ball. Ace Glass may target the smaller Brenton Knapper on defense, but the Cougars could be prone to miscues against the WCC’s most steal-happy defense. Strange things could happen in Pullman, but I’d expect to see the continued ascension of Santa Clara here. - Jim Root

#44 Washington at #36 UCLA (-5), 10 PM ET, FS1.

What did these poor west coast Big Ten schools do to the basketball gods? This chart via EvanMiya shows just how decimated by injury all four teams have been, making it all the more impressive that both Washington and UCLA remain in the NCAA Tournament at-large picture (ok, that’s being charitable for 12-11 Washington):

(Side note: pretty nice correlation between being elite and staying healthy, just look at that tightly huddled bottom left corner!)

Both remain hampered by the injury bug, though UCLA could be getting Skyy Clark back sometime soon (your guess is as good as mine).

The biggest standout matchup here is Washington’s Hannes Steinbach potentially destroying UCLA on the boards. The Bruins have struggled on the glass all year (something Mick Cronin is surely thrilled about), and Steinbach gobbles up rebounds like a Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle demolishes pizza. The Huskies have also started to figure out their perimeter pecking order, with Zoom Diallo and Wesley Yates both playing extremely well of late. That helps offset the UCLA 1-2 punch of Donovan Dent and Trent Perry.

Both teams are heavy ball screen attacks, which each landing in the 92^nd percentile in frequency of “PnR + Passes” per Synergy. They defend them very differently, though, with UCLA’s switchy man inducing a ton of isolations or post ups, while Washington plays in heavy drop – and gets eviscerated by PnR. Again per Synergy, the Huskies rank in the 18^th percentile in points per possession conceded against ball screens while allowing them in the 99^th percentile of frequency. I’m pretty sure Dent and Perry are eagerly rubbing their hands together at this very moment.

This could be a line in the sand game for Washington, as the Huskies are playing well and could start a late season push towards an at-large. But their total inability to defend the pick-and-roll makes me think UCLA scores at will at home. - Jim Root

#108 San Francisco at #34 Saint Mary's (-12), 11:30 PM ET, ESPN2.

After losing on the road to Gonzaga, the Gaels found themselves in some unfamiliar–at least in recent memory–water as a two-loss team sitting at third in the WCC standings. Randy Bennett’s team would need help to have a chance at four-peating as regular season champions. Then the Zags lost to Portland on Wednesday, and now Saint Mary’s controls their own destiny once again.

Meanwhile, San Francisco finds themselves in a precarious spot for closing out their season, finding themselves in a four-way tie for fourth with Pacific, Washington State and Oregon State, a far cry from their third-place finish predicted in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Dons are 3-5 over their last 8 games and are coming off an 8-point loss to LMU that snapped the Lions’ 6-game losing streak.

The advantages that these two teams could play into are pretty clear if you’re staying up late watching these ESPN+ wars. Saint Mary’s should and will look to punish San Francisco’s frontcourt as much as possible. San Francisco is in just the 24th percentile for shot rates at the rim allowed this season, a shot selection that makes up 41% of the Gaels’ shots on the season. 

The wrinkle to this game that could make it closer than the 12-point win Saint Mary’s that KenPom suggests is San Francisco's personnel and their success at limiting opponent offensive rebounds so far in league play (their 76.5% defensive rebound rate is 1st in the WCC). If that rebounding rate average can continue, Chris Gerlufsen’s team just needs to find a way to defend consistently for 40 minutes and exert their athleticism against a Gaels backcourt that has struggled at times against ball pressure and switching defenses. That level of composure is easier said than done when playing the Gaels at their home. - Tuck Clarry

#118 UC San Diego at #94 Hawaii (-5), midnight ET, ESPN+.

An interesting stat I have uncovered: Big West teams that have to play a mainland league game on Thursday night and then travel to Hawaii and play just two days later on Saturday have not topped over 1.01 points per possession in nine straight games.

That is undoubtedly a major problem for a UC San Diego team that finally topped a three-game streak of under one point per possession games... with a balmy 1.03 mark against Long Beach State. The Tritons actually handed Hawaii their second-worst defensive efficiency of the entire season in game one of this matchup, way back a month ago, when the team was No. 69 in KenPom offense. They are at 160th now.

So, what happened? For one, they stopped making shots. UC San Diego hit 10+ threes seven times in the non-con, and have done so just once in league play. They topped 40% four times in the 2025 portion of the season, and have yet to do it in 2025.

UC San Diego has also really struggled without 6-foot-5 point guard Emanuel Prospere, who leads the team in assist rate and has played just seven minutes across the last three games with injury. The team's offensive rating is 14 points higher with the former D-II transfer on the floor.

Hawaii hasn't lost to a mid-major team on the island all year, and the Eran Ganot, Randy Bennett-taught extreme isolation drop defense has been working wonders with the Rainbow Warriors' extreme veteran and oversized group. It seems like a tall task for the likely shorthanded Tritons to succeed in their tropical business trip barring an offensive rejuvenation. - Matthew Winick

Sunday, February 8

A Game

#1 Michigan (-9) at #38 Ohio State, 1 PM ET, CBS.

Yes, this qualifies. It's a rivalry game (though obviously muted compared to football) and both teams need it badly. Michigan is facing some mildly unexpected heat via Illinois for the Big Ten crown, while Ohio State last got a win over an obvious NCAA Tournament team on February 6, 2025, when they beat Maryland thanks to Bruce Thornton going nuclear.

I can imagine a similar path existing here if Ohio State has designs on winning this game and not some sort of "we tried" deal. It's obviously been rare for Michigan to get got defensively, and there's no clear throughline amongst the teams (Oregon, Maryland...and Wisconsin) that have done it. However, there's at least been some commonalities to follow. Those three all had okay-to-good days on the offensive boards, scoring at least a 26% OREB% (Oregon and Maryland north of 35%), and four of Michigan's five worst defensive games have featured them allowing 10 made threes.

Getting Michigan's proverbial goat is perhaps the single most difficult task in college basketball in 2025-26, but the way I can envision this is through both Thornton and John Mobley having 25+ point days. That's a wild ask, but Mobley dropped 22 in a road loss to Michigan two weeks ago, and Thornton is dropping 64% 2PT/39% 3PT shooting averages in conference play. It would behoove Ohio State to pretend that they enjoy anything whatsoever about defending in this game, though, because Mobley and Thornton could combine for 62 and it wouldn't matter if the Bucks can't get stops. - Will Warren

B Game

#55 Tulsa at #67 South Florida (-1), 12 PM ET, ESPNU.

Tulsa has rattled off 7 straight wins to take control of the AAC race, but right behind them is USF, who also happens to be the last team to defeat the Hurricane, and the only team to win in Tulsa this season. First matchup saw the Bulls tally 1.27 PPP, by far the worst defensive efficiency rating of the season for Tulsa, who scored at 1.06 PPP, their worst offensive performance in AAC play. Wes Enis did his best Steph Curry impersonation, going 10-19 from 3 (for perspective, Tulsa as a team was 7-23), with USF running him off a million different screens and even using him as a guard to guard screener, which totally lost Tulsa.

Ultimately USF tied a season high of 42 points via catch and shoot, 27 of which were unguarded, also a season high. In fact, "rim and 3" USF scored 0 midrange points the entire game, with 48 points coming via 3, 32 points at the rim, and 13 made free throws- a perfect game for the Hodgson offensive system. Tulsa, also a strong rim and 3 offense (1st in both 2PT% and 3PT% offense in the AAC play), was held to their lowest rim rate in league play, and shot just 50% on their 16 rim attempts. The Hurricane did manage an AAC high 11 unguarded catch and shoots, making 4. David Green was a matchup issue for the smaller USF guards/wings, but the real issue was Tylen Riley suffering his least efficient game of the season (at that point), which won't fly against USF's drop coverage that funnels ball screen and dribble creation. Tulsa scored a season low 4 points via ball screen, and the Bulls were quite adept at mitigating their drive and kick propensity. - Jordan Majewski

C Games

#21 Texas Tech (-3) at #62 West Virginia, 1 PM ET, FOX.

I do not envy this one for Texas Tech, who gets West Virginia:

1. After WVU's second-biggest and arguably most emotionally rewarding win of a tough season;
2. While Tech is coming off a rare two-game losing streak that featured a crushing home loss to a key foe in the Big 12 title race;
3. At possibly the single hardest arena to play at in college basketball.

The last note will make your ears perk up, but per KenPom, WVU has the top home court advantage in the sport. This is not due to anything fans do (though WVU does have excellent fan support), and as far as I can tell, it's not entirely because of the weird sightlines behind the goals. It's because, at home, WVU (and all Big 12 teams to some extent) gets the greatest whistle known to man. Over their last 60 games, WVU has committed 5.4 fewer fouls in home games than on the road in Big 12 conference play.

In fact, six of the top 10 in America in this department (including #1 TCU) reside in the Big 12, along with two additional teams (Kansas and Kansas State) inside the top 25. For five years running, the single largest gap in home/away foul splits during conference play has belonged to the Big 12, which is possibly why the league routinely has exceptional home win percentage (6th or higher amongst all leagues five years straight).

This all matters here. West Virginia is far from a bad team, possessing a top-30 defense, and Texas Tech is looking just a little wobbly with recent results. Can Tech escape yet another harder-than-it-looks road game, or will WVU simply pick up their second top-25 win at home this year? - Will Warren

#45 UCF at #64 Cincinnati (-1), 2 PM ET, CBSSN.

I don’t know what we’re calling the thing we’re witnessing with Wes Miller in these postgame pressers following frustrating loss after frustrating loss for the Bearcats, but I do know that I absolutely hate it and feel for the guy. 

Mimicking the stages of grief, we got an episode of denial and anger after their loss on the road against West Virginia last month, with Miller rejecting pity and adamantly saying, “Everybody can quit on us. It's us against the world. I hear it.”

Now a month later, Miller reeled from another tough loss to West Virginia and was compelled to give a passionate reaction, this time apologizing to fans personally outside of the locker room. In his post-game radio interview this go-around, you can hear the weight and emotions of a head coach well on the verge of a third-straight losing season in the Big 12, with his seat getting hotter and hotter, all while having the 20th-worst luck in the country according to KenPom. 

Miller, the institution of Cincinnati, and its team desperately need a win here, hosting UCF, who are coming off a horrific 24-point loss against Houston. The Knights of Orlando happen to have the 4th-highest luck rating in the country on KenPom. The question is whether Cincinnati can drag the Knights’ offensive efficiency down to their level. 

The Bearcats have the worst effective field goal percentage in the conference, and outside of their struggles against Houston, UCF has posted an effective field goal percentage of 50% or higher over its last three games. If Riley Kugel and Jordan Burks can knock down shots, it could be another tough night looking for answers for the folks in the Queen City. - Tuck Clarry

#70 Northwestern at #15 Iowa (-13), 3 PM ET, FS1.

Unless you are a fan of one of these two teams or you really love Big Ten basketball, please just use this time to get ready for the Super Bowl.

Now, if you are going somewhere where food is covered and you have no interest in watching Cris Collinsworth's son break down Seahawks/Patriots, here's what you can expect. Iowa is in tremendous position to go 2-0 over the next four days and improve to 19-5, 9-4 B1G, which would be the first time Iowa has had 19 wins in its first 24 since 2015-16. That season cratered because Iowa's interior defense was exposed and they stopped being able to produce easy buckets inside.

For all the things Northwestern does poorly, I do believe they can attack an interior defense well through Nick Martinelli and are at least fine at rim protection via a surface read. Adjusted for strength of schedule, Iowa has been fine both ways, particularly on offense, but their shot selection differs massively against top-100 defenses. 45% of all shots come at the rim against those outside of the top-100; just 32% do once you crack that barrier. I guess I'd be more into that if, against top-100 offenses, Northwestern wasn't sitting at 1.19 PPP allowed and an inhumane 64% given up at the rim. - Will Warren