The Watchlist Tune o' the Week:

It's probably been a year since I had my initial realization. I don't know if this is a moral failing or one where I've aged out of the beliefs of my youth, the ones raised upon me by parents and onlookers. It is a little scary to admit it out loud, but here I go: I don't hate Duke anymore.

Maybe I should. After all, it is Duke. They were the villains of my youth, the team to root against every single March save for one year (2015) when I did root for them because of a bracket pool. Rooting for Duke, truly, is an obnoxious experience that would disgust most morally good human beings. The problem is that as I've aged I find myself kind of liking Duke basketball.

This is not an abandonment of fandom. If Duke were to play, say, Purdue in the NCAA Tournament, I would probably prefer Purdue to win. Their top three players have all been together for four years, and I like when that happens. But in an average matchup against an average team, Duke simply doesn't feel hateable anymore. Worst of all, they're fun. Watch this and argue with a wall:

That was from Duke's 83-52 demolition of a Louisville team probably slated for a 5 or 6 seed. Now, as a younger man, I would have happily rooted for Louisville to win this game and turned it off in disgust as Duke grew their lead, watching their fans do all their traditions. I would have been greatly annoyed by the first reveal of the camping out for whatever Duke/UNC game is coming up. I would've mentally reminded myself that said game should be watched on mute, because I know I cannot stand said announcers on said game.

Here is the problem: I watched every minute and found Duke to be the much more interesting and fun team to watch. I have found this to be the case in nearly every game Duke has played this year. I do not like this feeling. Perhaps it is time to go back to therapy to address this issue in my life: feeling any sort of mild, agreeable warmth for the Duke Blue Devils. For now.

  • A Games are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ Game every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
  • B Games are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
  • C Games are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through.
  • We hope to never get to D or F Games this season. No need.

All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. All lines for women's games are via Bart Torvik. The non-D1 lines are credited to their respective sites as I find them.

Monday, February 2

A Games

NCAAW: #22 North Carolina at #20 NC State (-3), 6 PM ET, ESPN2. The beauty of a rivalry is that, no matter the conference positioning, national meaning, or stakes involved, it will still matter immensely to both parties. Here's a great example. Neither team will win the ACC, and neither will end up a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Yet a win for either will be a season-shifter and a loss crushing.

NC State's super-drop is a fascinating counterpoint to a UNC offense heavily based on driving and kicking with a spread-based attack. The last three years have seen the teams split these games equally each year, but with the ACC's realignment, this is the only time they'll play each other this year. This should be a nasty clash between two excellent rebounding teams with two very different styles.

#14 Kansas at #19 Texas Tech (-2), 9 PM ET, ESPN. Well, would you look at that: two teams that couldn't beat UCF. Who said Space U couldn't run the world?

Future managers of suburban Marriotts notwithstanding, this won't be a hyper-impactful game for NCAA Tournament seeding. All this is really for is a game that will likely decide who gets the fourth double-bye in the Big 12 Conference Tournament next month. But I'm telling you this is a game that involves all of Darryn Peterson, Flory Bidunga, JT Toppin, and Christian Anderson, it will be in a top-five home court environment, and it will feature two teams that can absolutely be playing in Indianapolis two months from now. You're gonna turn that down? In front of God and everyone?

This is a deceptively big game for Kansas, who is 0-2 against Grant McCasland since his arrival in Lubbock and still has to play all of Arizona (twice), Iowa State, and Houston. If they can merely go 2-3 in these five games, it probably locks in a 4 seed at minimum. That path is a lot easier if they can pick this one off, but Kansas has an alarming trend away from home: a stunning inability to force any turnovers. Their 9.7% defensive TO% away from home is pretty easily worst in America, and if you're not suppressing opponent possessions as a team that doesn't rebound well against Texas Tech at Texas Tech, it could be a bad night for you.

B Game

#68 McNeese at #90 Stephen F. Austin (-1), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. This has become a surprisingly important game thanks to a heroic Year One outing by new SFA HC Matt Braeuer. He has the Lumberjacks on pace for their highest KenPom finish since Brad Underwood was there and is the current favorite to win a Southland conference that everyone, myself included, had written in pen for McNeese before the season began. McNeese escaped their home version of this game four weeks ago but I was wildly impressed by SFA putting their stamp on the game in turning McNeese into a jumper-first offense, which is a thing they aren't built for. We'll see if they can do the same at home and take a two-game Southland lead.

C Games

#70 Syracuse at #29 North Carolina (-10), 7 PM ET, ESPN. Look, maybe you disagree, but I sure hope this game means something at some point in the future again. For now, it's just depressing. Does anyone still want to watch Syracuse play basketball at this point of the season?

NCAAW: #65 Auburn at #24 Ole Miss (-10), 7 PM ET, SECN+. A win from Auburn here would go a long way in helping them secure their second NCAA Tournament bid since 2019, which at least carries some importance in carrying the program forward under new HC Larry Vickers, who I think is pretty brilliant.

Tuesday, February 3

A Game

#89 Miami (OH) (-5) at #185 Buffalo, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. This is officially The Week for Miami. By winning this game and an odd road fixture at Marshall on Saturday as part of the MAC/Sun Belt Challenge, their odds of 31-0 go from 6% to 14%. The odds of winning both games are roughly equivalent of an average NFL kicker making two 55-yard field goals in a row. At this point of football history, we expect these kickers to make it...but sometimes they don't. Lots of variables afoot. The last Miami/Buffalo game was such a classic that I slotted this one in up top without much thought; why not ride the same formula again to another banger?

B Games

#21 St. John's (-9) at #105 DePaul, 8 PM ET, Peacock. Optimism over: this is probably the single worst Tuesday of February conference play basketball since the COVID season, and at least that had a real excuse. This or the next game I guess would be my second-favorite of Tuesday behind the above. Without NC State/SMU, this would be the first February Tuesday since 2019-20 without a single top 100 FanMatch game. Anyway...what crushing, upsetting way can DePaul possibly lose this game?

#23 NC State at #36 SMU (-1), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. This is the top KenPom game of the night but...I don't know, just doesn't feel that hot to me, sorry. I do believe this NC State team is good, which is the problem. The SMU issue of being unable to beat top-50 teams (now 2-11 against them under Andy Enfield) weighs on my mind heavily. Do I trust them to win this very winnable game at home when they typically cannot do that against better competition? I'd like to say yes! But this NCSU team has played like a top-20 group, per Torvik, since switching out their starting lineup after losing to Kansas. I'm a believer.

#33 Indiana (-1) at #50 USC, 10 PM ET, Peacock. Everyone already knows the stats about Playing a Good Team Indiana versus Playing Anyone Else Indiana:

Indiana versus top-50 teams; versus everyone else (Hoop-Explorer)

But I would be more excited by that if USC had perhaps not looked like a rotting tomato for the last month. In order, USC's wins since mid-December are Minnesota (overtime), Maryland (Maryland), Wisconsin (by 2), and Rutgers (by 3). Indiana is highly imperfect, but USC's own numbers against quality comp are pretty worrying.

USC versus top-50 teams; versus everyone else (Hoop-Explorer)

C Games

#64 Ole Miss at #18 Tennessee (-12), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. This is the third of four straight road games for Ole Miss thanks to an ice storm almost completely shutting Oxford down for a week. They've had three different starting lineups in their last three games, so expect a fourth here for a team with a 1-8 record against teams in the top-60.

#94 Xavier at #10 UConn (-18), 7 PM ET, Peacock. A bizarre quirk of the Dan Hurley era has been a weird struggle session with Xavier almost every year. Last year's diminished team lost on the road to the Muskies; 2023-24 escaped with a 5-point road win; 2022-23 got swept. Considering the first one was a 23-point blowout I'm anticipating this one being close for no obvious reason at all.

#130 UIC at #99 Murray State (-6), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. The MVC title is now ~90% likely to have Belmont as at least a shareholder, but the winner of this game could emerge as the #2 with just one Illinois State slip-up. UIC lost the home version of this 81-77 on New Year's Day and is 0-5 against top-100 offenses, so...I favor Murray.

#56 Nevada at #59 Boise State (-4), 9 PM ET, Mountain West Network. Here is a team that has emerged as Interesting in a way I did not expect: Nevada! Not only are they up to 55th at KenPom (which would be their second top-60 finish since Muss left), but since Joel Armotrading's season-ending injury in late November, they've played like the 42nd-best team in America, per Torvik. Now, I don't think they'll continue to shoot 42% from 3 like they have, but it's a fun story while it lasts.

#25 Saint Louis (-8) at #107 Davidson, 9 PM ET, CBSSN. I challenge you: is there a single fanbase in America having a more purely enjoyable season than Saint Louis? Let's examine the cases. Arizona: yes, but I do think there are always some people nagging about "wait until March" stuff. Miami (OH): maybe, but probably some amount of nervousness about one loss ruining their at-large hopes. UConn: seems to not be having a great time despite 21-1. Gonzaga: expected. Michigan: yes but a significant chunk of the fans only tune in after football, and even then. Nebraska would be the only serious contender, and I think Saint Louis may be above them simply because they don't have a Big Ten schedule looming. They've got Davidson, and I hope they can take care of Davidson.

Wednesday, February 4

A Games

NCAAW: #15 Maryland at #16 Michigan State (-3), 6:30 PM ET, BTN+. Well, pretty simple: can Michigan State get off the mat? Their loss to Michigan on Sunday was a brutal one. MSU came back from an 81-77 deficit in the final minute to force overtime, got Michigan to shoot 13-25 from the free throw line, won the turnover battle, won the rebounding battle...and still lost. When you play a really good game and still lose, it can be tough to swallow.

Maryland can and will pounce on that if asked. Their record against quality competition isn't great, but they're a top-3 offensive rebounding team in the nation who will get to play a Michigan State team that's roughly average rebounding-wise and is 16th in the league in opponent 2PT% in conference play. This Maryland team is also fantastic in first halves, nearly nine points better per 100 possessions. If MSU's not ready to play from tip, it'll be a second straight game where they dig themselves a hole they've got to play out of.

#31 Utah State at #44 New Mexico (-2), 11 PM ET, FS1. Utah State successfully handled part one of their title march by holding serve at home against San Diego State at the weekend. Hey, while you're here, take a listen to the audio of this game. This is what it's supposed to sound like, all non-CBS networks. This is it.

Their next test is one I cannot imagine they anticipated being this tough in the preseason. New Mexico has emerged as the likely third NCAA Tournament team from the Mountain West behind an awesome defense. The Utah State W/L equation is entirely "did they crack up defensively," particularly against teams that can get to the rim and rebound. New Mexico isn't much for the latter, but their offense is improving. Can they pull off a win that would take them from "fun story" to "wins the Mountain West"?

The Non-D1 Game of the Week

D3: #4 Mary Washington (-4.5) at #31 Christopher Newport, 7 PM ET, streaming. Lock in for this one if you have the time, as it's a free stream on a team website. The D3 Datacast team has both of these teams as locks to make the D3 Tournament next month, and Mary Washington is a serious national title contender with a top-10 offense and defense. CNU's all defense, is 17-3, and is one of the four best teams in D3 at rim protection. Player to know in this one: Mary Washington's Kye Robinson, a sophomore averaging 24.3 PPG on 56% 2PT/31% 3PT splits who is an outstanding finisher for his 6'2" frame.

B Games

#49 Seton Hall at #28 Villanova (-8), 6:30 PM ET, Peacock. I wouldn't say we're in full panic with Seton Hall's Tournament status but we're surely very close, and I don't think that if the field were put together today they'd be in. They went 2-0 last week to hold serve, but this week offers two tough road games against Villanova and Creighton, both of which they're likely underdogs in. They've had no major lineup changes or injuries, so what's the difference between their first 12 games (11-1) and their last ten (5-5)? Well, here's one: no team in the nation has scored fewer points per game from three in that span, which is paired with SHU shooting an abhorrent 43% from two. This is the 248th-best offense since the Providence game.

NCAAW: #21 Nebraska at #6 Michigan (-13.5), 7 PM ET, BTN+. Quite the week for Michigan, who pulled off an overtime road win at Michigan State yesterday and now has to travel to Nebraska to play a top-25 team with a top-3 shooting offense. I appreciate that both the men and the women's programs at Nebraska are running pretty much the same formula to achieve success.

#27 Texas A&M at #20 Alabama (-6), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Bediako aside, I do not trust this Alabama team at all come March. This is less about their defense, their style of play, or their general inability (save for the Illinois game pre-Wagler glow-up) to beat great teams. This is about one thing: rebounding. They're now -1.8 per 100 in rebounding margin. When paired with a negative turnover margin, it's ugly. Do you know the last Sweet Sixteen team with negative rebounding and turnover margins? It was 2006-07 USC.

NCAAW: #31 Oklahoma State (-3) at #46 Arizona State, 8:30 PM ET, ESPN+. Arizona State has come back down to earth a bit, but I'd like to shine a spotlight on this game, which features a combined record of 37-9 and features two fun teams to watch. Neither may end up above an 8 seed in the Tournament, but either could be a tough out. Oklahoma State is dominant on the boards; ASU has a top-15 defense that produces turnovers in bunches.

NCAAW: #26 West Virginia (-2.5) at #40 Colorado, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. The Big 12 this year is a zone of pure chaos. TCU's the best team and the only team in the Torvik top 25, but the league has six teams ranked from 26-40. This is a game between two of them, one of whom forces tons of turnovers (WVU) and one that sits deep in their half-court offense to turn each game into a slow rebounding contest. I like that both styles of ball can coexist in this league.

NCAAW: #35 Illinois at #23 Oregon (-7), 9 PM ET, BTN+. The SEC and the Big Ten are so thoroughly dominating NCAAW this year that Illinois, a good team with a 15-6 record and 35th overall nationally at the time of writing, is 12th in their own league at Torvik. If they played in the Big 12 they'd be a top five team.

C Games

#55 Tulsa (-2) at #110 FAU, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Wednesday has 62 games, and this is one of them. This is a huge week for Tulsa basketball, who has two away games: FAU and USF. If they go 1-1 they're in good shape to take home the AAC crown in a month, which is an insane turnaround from their last few seasons.

#9 Michigan State (-10) at #82 Minnesota, 7 PM ET, BTN. In running some numbers to see if Tom Izzo off a conference loss has any real sauce to it, the answer is pretty obviously less: 31-13-2 ATS off a loss the last five years. But! When said game is on the road, MSU is just 5-4-2 ATS and failed a test earlier this year by nearly losing at Penn State.

#45 UCF at #6 Houston (-12), 7 PM ET, FS1. As mentioned on Twitter, I would like for this UCF to make the Tournament because they play a fun style of basketball and it's been a while since they've made it. Unfortunately for them, their two road efforts against top-50 defenses have been pretty ugly: 1.03 PPP, 25% TO%, and a 47% 2PT.

#175 Furman at #138 ETSU (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is the worst SoCon in years, which bums me out. However! This is the most exciting SoCon regular season title race in a while, which is fun. All of ETSU/Furman/Wofford/Mercer are either 7-2 or 7-3, and all of them can win the regular season crown. Surprisingly for what you'd expect from Bob Richey, this is the league's second-best defense playing on the road against its best.

NCAAW: #50 BYU at #52 Kansas (-2), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. I think this Kansas team is better than their record, while this BYU team is worse than theirs. Will that matter when Kansas has been exceptionally good at losing close games to good teams?

#15 BYU (-5) at #58 Oklahoma State, 9 PM ET, FS1. My BYU worry is emerging and I would describe it as such: against top-50 competition, this BYU team has a 44% Assist%, gets outshot by their opponents (49.4% to 50.1% eFG%), and plays around five points worse per 100 possessions. They seem like a team that, in March, will be a 4 seed or something, will beat their 13 seed opponent by 17, will manage to get the 12 seed that beats a 5, and will then lose by 8 to a 1 seed in a game that's not that close. This is not important in this game that they should win, but I have developed my feel.

#66 Oklahoma at #30 Kentucky (-10), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Is Kentucky Actually Good? This is a locked thread on a message board 10,000 pages long, but since losing Jayden Quaintance and Jaland Lowe for the year, they're 6-1. The good news is that they've won these games. The bad news: during this stretch, they've still only played like the 43rd-best team in America and are riding a +6% 3PT% delta while losing 2PT%, TO%, and barely breaking even on rebounding. I don't buy it just yet.

#32 Clemson (-4) at #81 Stanford, 10 PM ET, ACC Network. They're calling me Guy That Keeps Posting Home/Road Splits and Telling You to Look At Them. Here's an interesting one. Clemson, at surface level, looks to play around ~5 points worse per 100 (adjusted for schedule, of course) away from home. But! At home, their opponents have shot 24% from 3. Away from home: 35%. I would posit that Clemson may be better away from home with normalized 3PT%, which makes this an interesting test case.

#41 Santa Clara (-6) at #111 Pacific, 10 PM ET, ESPN+. This Santa Clara team is doing all the things you need to do to make the Tournament. They're up to 41st at KenPom. They're 10-1 in conference play. Seven of those ten are by 12 or more points. By WAB, they're just north of the imaginary cutline. Just keep taking care of business until Gonzaga on Valentine's Day, fellas. Please.

#22 Iowa (-1) at #46 Washington, 11 PM ET, BTN. I think we can officially declare Road Iowa to no longer be a thing. Yes yes, they're 5-4 away from home...fine. They're also 14th at Torvik in away from home ratings only.

Thursday, February 5

The A+ Game of the Week

NCAAW: #5 LSU at #3 Texas (-6), 9 PM ET, ESPN. This is what war looks like. Two of the sport's elite frontcourts, probably the two best rebounding teams in America, certainly two of its three best in shot volume, and two teams that have played some of their best basketball against their best competition.

I like watching these two play because they are relics of a different era. In men's basketball, most older coaches have begrudgingly adopted the analytics revolution and are okay taking more threes than they used to. Not LSU, and not Texas. They're dead last (Texas) and second-from-last (LSU) in three-point attempt rate. Neither plays through their backcourt much at all, save for Texas creating a ton of midrange looks for Madison Booker. Both want to play an 80s-style transition game with little regard for slowing it down. If they do slow it down, both have multiple great posts that can bully their way to the rim and/or the line. If you are a person that says "I miss when basketball was physical" and have perhaps not watched a full basketball game in 30 years, maybe try this one.

A Games

NCAAW: #7 Duke at #8 Louisville (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN. This is for the ACC title, in all likelihood. Duke has evolved from some serious initial struggles into a legitimate top-5 team and Final Four contender, while this is Louisville's best team in several years. I would argue it's Jeff Walz's most democratic team ever, as no player averages more than Tajianna Roberts' 12.5 PPG but seven (!) players average at least 8 PPG. It makes for a really tough team to defend, because no one player is more scoutable than the rest. On any other night, this would be the main and not the undercard.

NCAAW: #12 Vanderbilt at #19 Kentucky (PK), 7 PM ET, SECN+. Kentucky's flop of sorts in SEC play has created an intriguing scenario: what if an agreed-upon top-20 team in the sport barely scraps their way to .500 in conference play? A loss at home to Vandy would make it unlikely they even get there, but Vandy has their own worries. A loss in this game takes them from an undefeated team as of a week ago to just 42% to get the coveted SEC Tournament double-bye, as Tennessee would pass them up.

NCAAW: #9 Minnesota at #14 Iowa (-1), 7 PM ET, BTN. Minnesota's a hard team to figure out. Yes, against Quad 1 and 2 competition, they're 3-6, and they grade out as the 8th-best team in the Big Ten. Against everyone else, though, they're 12-0 and have played at the level of Michigan. I do believe that they may struggle to scale up to the better teams, but by the same token, they're probably better than their record indicates. Interesting team to track, because they're on track for a 7 seed or so in the Tournament but may be a top-10 team by the metrics. A realistic scenario is them drawing 2 seed Louisville and being, at worst, a 1.5-point underdog.

B Games

NCAAW: #11 Tennessee (-4.5) at #34 Georgia, 6:30 PM ET, SECN+. This one goes in line with the Vandy note from earlier. A Tennessee win here strengthens their likelihood to get the double bye in SEC play. By the way, it's certainly a shame that the Lady Vols got stomped in the second half...but given UConn's status, is it really that bad? This UConn team grades out as, per Her Hoop Stats, a top-three women's basketball team ever. Losing to this team by 30 is genuinely not that bad of a result; UConn is just that good. I'm becoming more convinced the only team that can possibly touch them is UCLA.

NCAAW: #36 Virginia Tech at #30 Notre Dame (-5.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is the ACC undercard to Duke/Louisville. This VA Tech team is an interesting one to evaluate. They're 18-5, but how good is that 18-5? WAB evaluates it as the 41st-best resume. They're 0-2 against the two best teams in the league with a combined MOV of -41. They've managed to play the second-weakest conference SOS so far...and have the second-strongest the rest of the way. Looking forward to figuring out if they're good.

#140 William & Mary at #113 UNC Wilmington (-5), 7 PM ET, CBSSN. As usual, Thursdays are pretty weak for MBB, but this is a fun game. The CAA is pretty wide open and seemingly no one in America has become aware of UNC Wilmington being 19-3.

NCAAW: #24 Ole Miss at #25 Alabama (-2.5), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. The SEC is well and truly stuffed with low-end top-25 teams this year. These two will either be 4 or 5 seeds in a month. Both have some pretty big issues: Ole Miss can't shoot and fouls too much, Alabama is way too loose with the ball offensively. But they're both good-not-great and are a combined 37-8.

NCAAW: #29 Ohio State at #18 Washington (-5.5), 9 PM ET, Peacock. Speaking of teams that have really drawn a nice, long run-up to conference play: Ohio State. The Buckeyes are 18th of 18 by a mile in conference SOS and have played just three of the conference's 10 top-25 teams so far. However, check out this finish to the season. Utterly horrific and deeply telling about if they're as good as their record indicates (that of a 3 seed) or if it's inflated thanks to a lucky draw.

Ohio State's final seven games

C Games

NCAAW: #32 Mississippi State at #4 South Carolina (-22), 6:30 PM ET, SEC Network. Mississippi State did demolish Tennessee last week, and this is not as elite of a South Carolina team as the previous few. Still, exactly one team outside of the top 25 at Torvik has kept it within 22 of the Gamecocks all season, and that was Florida on a night where South Carolina shot 9-39 on everything that wasn't a layup. The gap between haves and have-nots remains large.

#69 West Virginia at #62 Cincinnati (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. By the thinnest of definitions, this counts as a rivalry. Maybe the Bob Huggins Rivalry in a few years once his status is restored somewhat? (Looking broadly at the country around me) Ah, who's kidding, it's already restored and then some.

#234 Iona at #171 Siena (-6), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This isn't quite the game I'd hoped for, but any game featuring both CJ Anthony and Gavin Doty is interesting, and for what it's worth I have no doubt that either of these teams could win MAAC Roulette in six weeks. Expect the unexpected every single March.

#300 Morehead State at #243 SEMO (-7), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN+. I mean, this is the least-dead OVC since Belmont and Murray were there? Faint praise, obviously, but the conference race is pretty wide-open, with five teams between 9-2 and 8-4, all still playing each other at least once. I'll wager we get a UT Martin/SEMO final.

NCAAW: #57 Montana State (-4.5) at #109 Idaho, 9 PM ET, ESPN+.

NCAAW: #83 Oregon State at #70 Gonzaga (-4.5), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. Both of these are the same thing: the two best teams in mid-major leagues playing for the regular season title, more or less. They're worth keeping an eye on in a loaded slate.

Friday, February 6

A Game

#10 UConn (-1) at #21 St. John's, 8 PM ET, FOX. This, as of now, is the ultimate UConn Test. The only other game in which UConn's favored by fewer than 8 points the rest of the way is road Villanova on the 21st. They're up to an 11% chance to go undefeated in the Big East, becoming THE FIRST TEAM TO EVER DO THAT IN LEAGUE HISTORY...and their own fans are kinda annoyed by the level of play they've seen since, no joke, a game on my birthday.

Thanks for this one, uppercase

We'll assume, for the sake of this article, that UConn gets past Xavier on Tuesday in the most obvious Letdown Lookahead spot of all time. (UConn demolished Creighton on Saturday, the first time it feels like they've really beaten Creighton in a few years, and they have this game looming Friday. If UConn covers the 18-point KenPom spread, they're better kids than I would be.) This represents a game between a lot of things: preseason hype, in-season disappointment (different levels each way), in-season improvement, elite coaches, and, of course, Madison Square Garden.

In five Pitino/Hurley battles, UConn has gone 3-2, but they're just 1-4 against the spread, with the lone cover being a road game in February 2024 where Cam Spencer and Stephon Castle shot 7-9 from 3. This St. John's team is obviously very unlike last year's, though the same could be said for UConn. The tell for the Johnnies this year is the battle of the paint. When St. John's has more points in the paint than their opponent, they're 14-1. When they lose this stat: 2-4. For all the good UConn has done, they've drawn or lost the PITP battle seven times, including thrice in the last three weeks to Providence (twice) and Georgetown. I don't know if that's a sign of a team that's bored or a sign of worse things to come, and this game will go a decent ways towards telling me which is likelier.

B Game

#57 Belmont (-4) at #130 UIC, 8 PM ET, ESPN+. For all intents and purposes, a Belmont win here stops the Missouri Valley race in its tracks. They'd be 87% likely, per Torvik, to win the league outright, and would have an average expected record in conference play of 16-4. I've resigned myself to the knowledge that Belmont will be nowhere near the NCAA Tournament bubble if they lose in Arch Madness, but at a certain point I would certainly prefer 27-6 Belmont over 19-14 Ohio State. Wouldn't you?

C Games

#88 Dayton at #48 VCU (-8), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. I think the end is likely incoming for Anthony Grant in six weeks, so let's review. He'll likely finish with eight straight top-100 KenPom finishes and eight straight .500 or better seasons in the A10, which is nice. However, let's just count the 2020 NCAAT bid as happening. That would have him at two in nine years. Archie had four in six; Brian Gregory two in eight; Oliver Purnell two in nine. Is he a bad coach? I strongly doubt it. Is he great? I also doubt it. If this job opens I am beyond fascinated to see what the hot board would consist of. As a pure guess, would you take Chris Gerlufsen as a Dayton fan? Brian Wardle? James Jones? Russell Turner? Ponder for me and get back.

#136 Bradley at #108 Northern Iowa (-5), 8 PM ET, CBSSN.

#178 Drake at #83 Illinois State (-11), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Mid-pack MVC battles, though Illinois State at least has a chance to win the league still. Get your Arch Madness scouting in!