The Watchlist Tune o' the Week

Sometimes the column/essay ideas are really pulling teeth and therefore I opt out of them; sometimes they come to you immediately on a two-hour drive to your parents' house. This is the latter.

I put on The Cars' Complete Greatest Hits, which is a CD every American person should own either physically or in their streaming collection. The 1985 version that's just the true hits is better, but the 2002 version is probably more educational. It also lasts 79 minutes, which was perfect because I started listening with about 80 minutes left in the drive.

The record starts off phenomenally, just like the Cars did as a band. Their first album, self-titled, is an immaculate, untouchable piece of rock music. It is appropriately hallowed by literally everyone with a brain as the best thing they ever did. It also ended up being a curse, because the rest of their discography is full of albums with some songs you really like and a whole lot more songs you don't remember at all.

For instance, third album Panorama is represented on the Complete Greatest Hits only with one song, lead single "Touch and Go". It's a fine song, certainly, even if actual leadoff track "Panorama" is superior. That inclusion alone is pretty telling of the Cars as a band, though. They made seven albums and have multiple interesting B-sides. An entire third of Complete Greatest Hits is that first album, and only 1984's Heartbeat City (the one with "Drive" and "Magic", two perfect songs) ends up getting more than three inclusions.

I offer this observation up because, in college sports, we are perhaps unnecessarily obsessed with a good debut. This came up in my memories while searching for something else:

Now, some of these great debuts have proven themselves quite well. Sundance Wicks is probably pretty good; Tony Skinn will get hired by a P5; Will Wade is going to fix NC State or die trying; Alan Huss succeeded and will be the next Creighton coach. But look at some of these names: Danny Sprinkle? Failing at Washington. Aaron Fearne? Fired at Charlotte, just name the date. Red Autry? Possibly gone in two months at Syracuse.

Sometimes, it's not great to put all your best tracks out at once. Save a couple for the follow-up, lest you end up filling out your own personal greatest hits with stuff from your first year.

  • A Games are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ Game every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
  • B Games are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
  • C Games are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through.
  • We hope to never get to D or F Games this season. No need.

All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. All lines for women's games are via Bart Torvik.

Monday, January 19

A Games

NCAAW: #6 Michigan (-8.5) vs. #14 Vanderbilt, 2:30 PM ET, FOX. Well, do you like importance? Because you're gonna get more importance than you ever asked for. How about two teams with their eyes set on 2 seeds, in a program matchup that rarely happens in any sport, on national TV? I don't think you can get much better than this.

Michigan is elite at setting the pace offensively with a downhill attack that can really cascade in transition, and against a Vandy crew that's okay-but-not-elite at slowing down the pace defensively, they could make serious hay early on. I also love Michigan's frontcourt here against a Vandy team that doesn't protect the defensive boards well. And yet: Mikayla Blakes and team are fantastic at finding the open shooter via paint touches, which Michigan has been vulnerable to at times this year. This one's like a nice painting, I just want to sit down and look at it for a bit.

#70 George Washington at #74 George Mason (-3), 5 PM ET, CBSSN. The Battle of the Georges, and predictably, the wonder that is A10 fandom has already produced something I will need a subscriber of the site to send me. I will Venmo you.

This game is pretty heavy for A10 purposes, too. Saint Louis is running away with the title, but the remainder of the top four spots that get you the coveted double-bye are all up for grabs. Mason is 84% likely to get one with a win and 62% with a loss; those numbers are 76% and 50% for GWU. Mason can also get into Actual For Real at-large territory with a win here. This is a true test of just one end of the court for me. If Mason's guards and wings continue to attack downhill at the rate they have even against GWU's super-help that forces a lot of kickouts, I will both be wildly impressed and ready to request the committee pencil them in as an 11 seed.

B Games

NCAAW: #27 Ohio State vs. #8 TCU (-5.5), 12 PM ET, FOX. I'd be more excited if I knew this Ohio State team could hang on the boards, which they likely cannot, but this is absolutely a winnable game for both sides. Serious shoutout to NCAAW for making MLK Day a day for huge non-conference battles between teams that never meet. Above all, I want to know: is TCU really going to go +12% from 3 the entire season? I do not think so, so maybe I do actually like OSU here.

NCAAW: #74 Harvard at #44 Princeton (-7.5), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Good Ivy battle between a Princeton team that's going to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large despite having no frontcourt to speak of. That makes this game with Harvard a very fun and entertaining styles-make-fights deal, as Harvard primarily plays through their bigs and has been pretty good at protecting the rim defensively.

C Games

#164 Columbia at #86 Yale (-9), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Not a ton on the plate today, but you can always do worse than an Ivy battle between the league's two best teams. Yale has taken 21 of 23 from Columbia in this series, and unless Columbia finds a way to hold Yale off the offensive glass and away from the rim, I'm not sure how this doesn't end up 22 of 24. Still: day hoops on a holiday.

#73 McNeese (-5) at #172 Texas A&M Corpus Christi, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. Reactionary, possibly, but I don't think this McNeese team Has It in the same way last year's (or the one before) did. They're down to 88th at Torvik, very close to being passed up by 90th-place Stephen F. Austin, and outside of forcing turnovers it's hard to name a thing this Cowboy crew does all that well.

NCAAW: #24 Notre Dame at #1 UConn (-29), 5 PM ET, FOX. I think we do this weekly, making examples of stuff, but Notre Dame is 24th at Torvik as I'm typing this. Not bad at all, and yeah, they still force turnovers and shoot the ball well. They're a good team. They will be 29 point underdogs in this game, because that is how far ahead of the pack UConn is right now.

#64 Providence (-3) at #121 Marquette, 6 PM ET, FS1. I can't quit Providence. Maybe I should, but...man. They're so fun. Marquette I can absolutely quit without a second thought, which makes me think they're going to win this game.

Tuesday, January 20

A Games

#30 NC State at #26 Clemson (-4), 7 PM ET, ACC Network. I've heard happier souls in the past month than Will Wade, who sounds like he's ready to fly off to Bolivia for a few months and forget basketball exists:

I'm willing to exclude Georgia Tech as GT shot 46% from deep and it seems more like a one-off horrible loss, but the other five teams to beat NCSU this year all have something in common: they all run some amount of drop coverage, which is funneling NCSU into a ton of pull-up jumpers and kills their strength, which is getting paint touches to create kickout threes or to use a hard-hedge against itself to feed Ven-Allen Lubin as a roller. That makes this matchup with Clemson, which doesn't always run drop but mostly plays with drop coverage principles, probably another bad one for Will Wade's mental health.

#12 Vanderbilt (-1) at #23 Arkansas, 9 PM ET, ESPN. I'm trying to time my Buy Low on Vanderbilt after already Selling High three weeks ago. If they can lose this one, I'll really be in business. Though, of course, I also tried to Sell High on Arkansas and was rejected by my credit union. Not my fault, as far as I'm concerned. They're in league with the Hogs.

Similar to the above with NC State/Clemson, I find it notable that against two of the droppiest coverages in the sport, Vandy went 0-2 last week. Now, by no means was their offense the issue against Florida, but it was against Texas. They also got beat by two of the three or so best rebounding teams in the conference. Here, they'll play an Arkansas team that's above-average at rebounding but nothing special and one that does not play drop very well. If you tell me they get back on track here, I won't be surprised, but as always, Home Arkansas is a totally different animal than Everywhere Else Arkansas.

B Games

#37 Indiana at #1 Michigan (-16), 7 PM ET, Peacock. We are yet again in the Is Indiana Going to Make the Tournament portion of the college basketball season, so about mid-January. I continue to believe this team is better than their record, but eventually, you gotta win a big game. It won't be this one, but...January 27 against Purdue? Plausible?

#50 Seton Hall at #20 St. John's (-9), 7 PM ET, FS1. Let's take a closer look at that initial Seton Hall blast out of the gates that got them to 11-1 and an AP Top 25 ranking, then in the slot below it, the stats from the six games that have followed (3-3).

I don't believe that Seton Hall is going to shoot 23% from deep until the end of time, and in all likelihood, that 43% 2PT is pretty extreme as well. But the shot splits themselves are very telling. Instead of getting downhill the way they did before Big East play, opponents are sitting deeper and forcing Seton Hall to shoot over the top of them. They've averaged 15 midrange jumpers a game over their last four, and that seems like a horrid matchup when St. John's - a national leader in forcing midrange jumpers - is looming.

#34 SMU (-1) at #61 Wake Forest, 9 PM ET, ACC Network. Welcome to yet another year where SMU has no great wins and no bad losses. Under Andy Enfield, they're now 1-11 against top-50 teams at KenPom and 35-4 against anyone 51st or lower. Based on this, I will assume they take care of #61 Wake Forest, even though this is a very 50/50 game and SMU already got a monster coin flip in their favor last week.

#21 Texas Tech (-1) at #41 Baylor, 9 PM ET, Peacock. James Nnaji check-in: five games, 10 points, and no shot attempts in his last 22 minutes of play. Perhaps there is a reason he had to come back to college basketball. Since Grant McCasland got to Texas Tech, the Red Raiders are 3-1 against Baylor, with the favorite taking all four games. TTU's four losses have all come against exceptional offensive rebounding squads, though, which gives Baylor some hope in a game that otherwise slants towards the nation's 9th-best team since December 1 (per Torvik).

#28 Georgia (-2) at #55 Missouri, 9 PM ET, ACC Network. The question of Missouri being Actually Good was perhaps answered violently on Saturday in an awful road loss to an LSU team that had only been outpaced by Ole Miss in terms of SEC badness since Feast Week. This is not good, considering Ole Miss is Mizzou's other SEC loss. They've been at their best against teams that send two to the ball, which allows them to hit a number of backdoor cuts. Georgia is more than capable of giving these up, along with numerous offensive boards. Maybe they are Actually Good in that they'll continue to be very confusing.

#4 Purdue (-6) at #42 UCLA, 10 PM ET, Peacock. This is a potentially bad schedule spot for Purdue. Hear me out: their last four games have all finished within single digits, this is their third game in six days, and they have a monster home game against Illinois looming on Saturday. Meanwhile, UCLA is back at home, where they're 10-0. It's plausible this is all a big nothing, but a UCLA team that's way better at home...Purdue escaping several in a row...lookahead game...I'm just sayin' you might have another Mick Cronin press conference special.

C Games

#63 Akron (-7) at #175 Buffalo, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. These are the two teams that have gotten closest to finally toppling Miami (OH) in MAC play, and therefore, it's worth monitoring. I am a bit stunned that Buffalo is competent now given what I thought about George Halcovage as a coach, but...maybe he was fine the whole time and was simply being sabotaged?

#44 LSU at #9 Florida (-11), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. LSU did finally get off the mat against Mizzou on Saturday, which is nice but perhaps not that helpful when they're about to play the SEC's best team. Can they generate the equivalent of 10 more shot attempts than Florida as they did against the Tigers? Well, I doubt it.

#43 UCF at #8 Iowa State (-12), 7 PM ET, CBSSN. Pretty brutal two-game stretch for UCF, who played Arizona in a tight one on Saturday and now has to travel to Hilton to play a pissed-off Iowa State team that wants to take it out in their first home game after two consecutive losses. In terms of spots, it doesn't get much worse than this, which is my way of saying I will be highly impressed by UCF if they keep this within 10.

#94 Miami (OH) (-3) at #146 Kent State, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Miami is now Yes That Miami after their absurd comeback win against Buffalo that required multiple buzzer-beaters, several incredible shots just to stay alive, and presumably some amount of divine intervention. Every year, a team has the Mandate of Heaven, and this year it might be the Miami RedHawks. If they beat Kent State here I think they're at least getting to 22-0 before playing Buffalo on February 3.

#66 Oklahoma State at #52 TCU (-7), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. This is just the runner-up for Anxiety Game of the Week, mostly because I don't think either of these teams are super likely to make the NCAA Tournament. Still, whoever wins will feel a lot better than the loser. TCU has a really strange reverse split where they've been far better away from home than in Texas, so maybe this is a good game for the Pokes.

#78 Boise State at #99 Wyoming (-1), 8:30 PM ET, MWN. Sort of a riser/faller situation here. Boise is down to just a 4% shot of a top-four finish in the Mountain West. Wyoming's just at 3% themselves, but they're in the top-100 and will have a legitimate say in the future MWC Tournament. I'm intrigued.

#33 Auburn (-1) at #59 Ole Miss, 9 PM ET, ESPNU. In Haslametrics' Away/Home Court metric, which tracks how much better or worse you play away from home, Auburn has the fourth-largest split in America in terms of how much worse their level of play away from home is compared to the Jungle. That makes Ole Miss live here, and it makes Auburn frighteningly live to what was once an unthinkable 11-8 record.

#10 Michigan State (-9) at #88 Oregon, 9 PM ET, FS1. Whatever nascent Oregon optimism I had is completely dead, as Nate Bittle is injured, Jackson Shelstad is now out for the season, and their best result of the season is beating Hawaii at home by a single point. Lose this and you could be looking at an all-time blowout spot at Washington on Sunday.

#19 Kansas (-6) at #79 Colorado, 11 PM ET, ESPN. I mean...it's Colorado at home against a top-25 team. This has portended bad things for top-25 teams in the past. Colorado is horrid defensively and has no top-50 wins, but...I mean...maybe? They did push Texas Tech for a full 40 just a week ago.

Wednesday, January 21

A Game

NCAAW: #12 Minnesota (-1.5) at #29 Oregon, 9 PM ET, BTN+. I like this one a lot. Both Minnesota and Oregon can win in different ways, and Oregon has already proven themselves this year as a fairly scary home team. At home, they've played like a top-15 team in the country, force way more turnovers, and shoot far better. I think the last bullet there is variance-based, but even so, that gives Oregon a wide-open lane to run through even with a weak interior defense.

Minnesota, meanwhile, has been...less great away from home. They're 3-4 and play like the 26th-best team in America away from home, largely because they cannot get to the line at all thanks to a super-high midrange attempt rate. Drop coverages have been a problem, which makes a game against an Oregon team that prefers to hard-hedge really interesting. Can Minnesota hit the short roll and create 4-on-3 situations with frequency? If so, it could outweigh any amount of shooting advantages Oregon has at their home confines.

The Non-D1 Game of the Week

D2: #5 Daemen at #6 Gannon (-3.5), 7 PM ET, streaming. This is an electric D2 game that more people should be made aware of, so it's getting a preview in here. Daemen last lost a regular season game on February 9, 2024, and while this hasn't resulted in a D2 title or anything, it's still a wildly impressive run of play. Meanwhile, Gannon is fourth in D2 at 93.9 PPG and is one of the most lethal shot volume teams at any level in America: 41% OREB%, a +10.6 turnover margin per 100, and averaging 15 more field goal attempts than their opponent in an average game.

How this shakes out in a rare crossover game between two mostly unrelated schools should be fun. Gannon plays fast enough (83 possessions a night) to make any opponent look slow, but Daemen is somehow even better at rebounding than Gannon and likely has the superior frontcourt in a half-court oriented game.

B Games

NCAAW: #53 Davidson at #60 Rhode Island (-1), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Hugely important game in the battle to get the Atlantic 10 a third bid. Rhode Island badly needs this one, as they're above water in WAB and would be even more so with a win. I'm very curious about this game; these are two drop coverages against two offenses that are much better when playing against aggressive defenses that force kickout threes. If neither team sends two to the ball and neither team scores frequently down low, it could be a first-to-50 style affair.

NCAAW: #40 Arizona State at #23 West Virginia (-8), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Arizona State is somehow 16-2 despite some really unimpressive metrics and despite some horrific shot selection. I think this could be a really, really bad matchup for them against a WVU team that can get downhill and to the line uber-fast...or maybe, they pull yet another rabbit out of a hat.

#40 Texas at #24 Kentucky (-6), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. This week's Anxiety Bowl for two reasons: Texas could genuinely turn themselves into a 90% likely Tournament team with a win, while Kentucky will once again find a way to be down 10+ and cause their fans serious strife even with another miracle comeback.

NCAAW: #26 Texas Tech (-6) at #52 BYU, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. BYU is nothing amazing this year, but I'm still not convinced Texas Tech is, either. This is a TTU team that's 19-1 but is running +10.7% (!) from deep, +10.1% on midrange jumpers, and is getting outrebounded in the average game. BYU's defense has been fantastic down low this year, which makes for a brutal, fun battle against a Texas Tech offense very strong in the frontcourt.

#47 San Diego State (-1) at #84 Grand Canyon, 11 PM ET, FS1. Grand Canyon did pull off a season-saver at the weekend over Utah State, so this game has more stakes than it already did. As it stands, San Diego State and Utah State are dead-even in Mountain West title odds (both exactly 33% to win an outright title), and a SDSU road win here would not only solidify their burgeoning Tournament resume but push them closer to another banner.

C Games

NCAAW: #90 UMass at #83 Ball State (-4), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. This one's for first in the MAC (5-1 at 6-0) between two excellent rebounding squads and two shaky first-shot offenses. UMass doesn't get to play Ball State again this year, so this is likely their only shot at staying in the race.

#75 Notre Dame at #36 North Carolina (-8), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. This one is an actual must for North Carolina, who isn't currently in any danger of a shock Tournament miss but is quickly plunging down in terms of odds to even be a top-5 seed. Torvik's got them as most likely a 7 seed. If so, is that enough for Hubert Davis?

#100 Georgetown at #27 Villanova (-12), 7 PM ET, Peacock. All time Game Before the Game spot for each side here. Georgetown has the now-annual Ed Cooley Humiliation Ritual at Providence looming on Saturday; Villanova will trek to UConn on Saturday. This game could go in a million different directions for me. Does Georgetown come out playing like they've got nothing to lose? Does Villanova lose focus? Do they gain focus because their head coach is certified control freak Kevin Willard? I don't know.

#98 Liberty (-2) at #165 Western Kentucky, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. The CUSA race goes from 'basically over' to 'super over' with a Liberty win here, as they'd move to 79% to win the league outright at Torvik. With a loss, that drops to 62% and opens up a path for MTSU to take advantage.

#90 Memphis at #62 Tulsa (-6), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. The AAC race, meanwhile, is wide freakin' open. Four teams (FAU, Tulsa, Memphis, USF) have a 15% chance or greater to win the regular season title, and nine of the league's 13 teams have at least a 16% chance at finishing inside the top four. Above all else I want to continue to find out how real this Tulsa thing is. They're up to 56th at Torvik.

#57 Virginia Tech at #68 Syracuse (-2), 9 PM ET, ACC Network. I keep thinking this Syracuse team is worse than they actually are, but, no, 12-6 and 3-2 ACC. What they're doing shouldn't be enough to save Red Autry's job by any stretch, but considering every time I check in on them I expect to see they're 1-5 or something in conference play, it's not so bad.

#53 Washington at #13 Nebraska (-11), 9 PM ET, BTN. Look: eventually, they're gonna lose. Eventually. In 2039.

#107 Northern Iowa at #89 Illinois State (-6), 9 PM ET, ESPNU. The MVC conference race is likely Murray State vs. Belmont, which is really lovely for those of us of a certain age. But if a third team is going to have something to say about it, it kinda has to be Illinois State, who has the best positioning as the darkhorse in the race.

NCAAW: #67 Purdue at #2 UCLA (-33.5), 10 PM ET, BTN+. UCLA's lone loss is to top-5 Texas on a neutral court in a game where UCLA had 11 unforced turnovers and only six players available. I think they're probably going to win this game.

#69 Northwestern at #49 USC (-7), 11 PM ET, BTN. I never thought USC would be the more stable team of these two, but that's how it's shaken out in 2025-26 so far. If Northwestern can turn this into a super-slow half-court game, I think they have a real shot to win on the road here; if not, I imagine the Trojans run with it. Nick Martinelli is the best player on the floor but it may not matter.

Thursday, January 22

The A+ Game of the Week

NCAAW: #4 South Carolina (-9) at #13 Oklahoma, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN. There are innumerable reasons I would tell you to watch this game. It's #4 at #13. It's the #2 defense at #7. It's South Carolina's second-highest chance at a conference loss the rest of the way. It's an extremely rare thing for South Carolina, which is an opposing frontcourt that can actually go board-for-board with them if needed. It's Raegan Beers against the entire universe. I will be locked in, and you should be, too.

A Games

NCAAW: #15 Iowa at #9 Maryland (-5), 6 PM ET, NBC. But if you're not, this is more than an acceptable substitute. Iowa's frontcourt is outstanding this year, but they're going up against a rebuilt Maryland frontcourt that can play drop coverage without fear of giving up tons of open jumpers. It's a really, really hard nut to crack if you're Jan Jensen, who has to find a way to both feed the post and to attack through the paint to create kickout threes that open up the offense as a whole. In terms of a tactical battle, this is my favorite of the week.

NCAAW: #16 Kentucky at #11 Tennessee (-4), 6:30 PM ET, SEC Network. I will be in attendance for this one, weather permitting. Tennessee has recovered from initial shakiness in non-conference play to emerge as a surprise contender in the SEC, essentially one upset away from being an Actual Real Contender. Every Tennessee game ends up boiling down to how well they assert themselves in the shot volume game. In games where Tennessee has won the combined rebound/turnover margin, they're 10-0. In games where they haven't: 3-3. This one will be decided by who sets the physical tone better.

NCAAW: #17 USC at #21 Michigan State (-1.5), 8 PM ET, BTN. Meanwhile, USC also has a tell: pure points scored. They're 9-0 when they get to 69 or more points and 2-7 when they do not. Simply put, without JuJu Watkins, the Trojans do not have the runaway power they'd have otherwise. This is a Michigan State defense capable of cracking, but it's going to be on USC's defense to slow them down and make this one gettable. MSU has only gone under 70 three times this year, and both of their losses are represented in that sample.

B Games

NCAAW: #51 Miami (FL) at #24 Notre Dame (-12.5), 6 PM ET, ACC Network. Next year, I hope Notre Dame builds a team that's more than just Hannah Hidalgo. Save for the Michigan game when the entire Notre Dame team got destroyed, she's scored 22, 24, 26, and 28 in the Irish's other four losses this year. They've lost games when she's generated five (Ole Miss) and eight (Georgia Tech) steals. Against Duke, she scored 22, shot 4-8 from 3, got nine boards, seven assists, and three steals. Her reward: losing by 14. A little better roster construction in 2026-27 would help.

NCAAW: #54 Clemson at #38 Virginia Tech (-6.5), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Two teams that are above water in the ACC but need wins bad to build their Tournament cases. I think Virginia Tech is in a much better position than Clemson, but neither is a pure lock to get in.

NCAAW: #82 Georgia Southern at #62 Troy (-6), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This one is very likely for the future Sun Belt crown. Troy is really good, by the way. With a win here, they're 16-3 (7-1) and would be favored in every remaining game. Let's get them in the Tournament.

#38 Wisconsin (-6) at #118 Penn State, 7 PM ET, FS1. The best men's game of the night features a team that's 0-7 in conference play and just lost by 23 to the third-worst team in the conference, so that's how the Mike Rhoades tenure is going. I still say he's a good coach, and Kayden Mingo in particular seems to be a great find. It's just not gonna work out, though this schedule spot is interesting. It's PSU's only home game in a two-week span and is Wisconsin's only road game in a three-week span. Possibly the rare Scheduled Win/Loss?

C Games

#80 South Florida (-1) at #120 UAB, 7 PM ET, ESPN2. In the Good Times Rollicking Ride that is the AAC this year, this is only for about fourth place or so in the eventual standings. I've covered how USF has been pretty unlucky this year, but UAB has much less of an excuse to me. How can this team still be unable to defend the paint against any decent opponent?

#119 UNC Wilmington at #143 William & Mary (-1), 7 PM ET, Flo Sports. The William & Mary regular season title dream is dead, as UNCW is running away with it thanks to a really light start to their conference schedule. This begs the question: who is the actual best team in the CAA? Season-long stats would tell you it's Hofstra, but actual conference play results (adjusted for schedule) claim Drexel. I don't know that I love either of these answers, so W&M's NCAA Tournament dream is still very much alive when the time comes.

NCAAW: #59 Auburn at #14 Vanderbilt (-16), 7:30 PM ET, SECN+. Vandy has a hell of a week ahead: that Michigan game, this one on Thursday, then on the road at South Carolina on Sunday. Their players wouldn't be happy to hear it, but 1-2 is an acceptable result from this monster week of ball. This also has the trappings of the Letdown Lookahead Sandwich if Vandy loses to Michigan Monday, which would make Auburn fairly live in this spot with a full week off.

NCAAW: #57 Indiana at #27 Ohio State (-14), 8 PM ET, Peacock. Every year, we have a good team that ends up with a horrific conference record thanks to being a combination of the least-good and the least-lucky in the league. That will be Indiana this year. The Hoosiers are 0-7 in conference play thanks to tight, coin-flip losses to Nebraska (78-73) and Iowa (56-53). In terms of how they've played, they grade out ahead of all of Purdue, Northwestern, Rutgers, and Penn State, but they may be this year's unlucky recipient of a 3-15 conference record despite their true quality being 6-12 or 7-11.

NCAAW: #66 Gonzaga (-1) at #89 Oregon State, 9 PM ET, ESPN+. This is for WCC supremacy (6-1 at 6-1). Both teams are very fun to watch offensively, with Jenna Villa of Oregon State being a special player, but watch this one for Lauren Whittaker at Gonzaga, who is her team's best player as a freshman and the single best player in the WCC. It will take some real NIL work to keep her on board, I'd imagine. For example, her stats would vault her immediately into being a top-5 player in the Big 12.

#199 Idaho State at #157 Montana State (-6), 9 PM ET, ESPN+. The Big Sky is Chaos City this year, with at least five teams having real designs on the regular season crown. Idaho State isn't one, but I would monitor this team in the actual conference tournament. Very good rebounding numbers, good shot quality, and some real matchup problems offensively.

Friday, January 23

A Game

Nothing. Fine.

#35 Ohio State at #1 Michigan (-15), 8 PM ET, FOX. This is highly likely to be uncompetitive, so for Michigan, this could mostly be about showing the world you're still the best team again. Michigan's last four outings have produced Torvik Game Scores of 83, 82, 97, and 95. All still pretty good, but considering nine of the previous 10 before it were 98, 99, or 100, it's off the pace of the then-historic dominance the Wolverines were displaying. If Michigan wins this by 20+ then they're back on track.

B Game

#25 Utah State (-5) at #93 Colorado State, 10 PM ET, FS1. Again, really, really light night of hoops for no obvious reason that I can ascertain. Why did college basketball elect to give up Monday and Friday again? I assume it has something to do with conferences wanting their teams to play weekend ball, which is fine, but at some point you should probably think about how overloaded and marathon-like your Saturday schedules are. Does everyone need to play on Saturday or Sunday? I really do not believe so, and you're missing out on completely owning one night of the week the way the Big 12 used to with Big Monday. Just an observation, ADs.

C Games

#29 Saint Louis (-9) at #145 St. Bonaventure, 6:30 PM ET, ESPN2. Oh, my beautiful SLU. Don't blow it, boys. SLU is now 97% (!) to make the Tournament with an average seed of 8.1 at Torvik, which had me curious: what was FAU on this date three years ago to make the NCAA Tournament? Well, my friend: 94% and 7.9. Just FYI.

#63 Akron (-9) at #213 Ohio, 8 PM ET, ESPNU. Ohio is -7% from 3 on the season and has had some truly horrendous shooting luck this year. Eventually, somehow, it'll turn their way...or maybe it won't, and this is their hell year. But I admit I'm curious to see if it does against an Akron team shooting 40% from deep.