Welcome to another edition of the Weekend Watchlist! Before you dive in, check out Dean Wendel's coverage of HoopHall Day 2.
Dean Wendel
Here are yesterday's top performances and today's Watchability Index:
Saturday, January 17
The A+ Game of the Weekend
#13 BYU at #23 Texas Tech (-1), 8 PM ET, ESPN2.
I think the concern for BYU has to be that they're going to play a legitimate team in a truly raucous road environment for the first time all year. Not only not, Texas Tech can limit BYU in transition (19th percentile rate allowed per Synergy data), and 4 out of BYU's 5 least efficient offensive games this season have come attached to their lowest transition totals on the year. That's not to say BYU doesn't have offensive advantages in this game. Texas Tech doesn't have anyone who can defend AJ Dybantsa 1v1, and TTU generally wants to stay 1v1 in their drop coverage, which has allowed them to maintain a low rim rate and 4th percentile catch and shoot rate. Not only can AJD cook in ball screen/iso offense here, but so can Rob Wright, and Texas Tech has generally been decimated in this regard, grading out in just the 10th percentile in ball screen defense on a 96th percentile rate, as they defend very conservatively given their lack of depth. There just isn't really an effective coverage for AJD, but drop definitely hasn't been it.
Offensively TTU has as elite of a two man game in PNR between Christian Anderson and JT Toppin as there is in the country, but they've also had some much need perimeter shooting and spacing from their wings of late. Toppin was a nonfactor in 18 bizarre minutes against BYU last season, but BYU has typically been very help oriented against the dribble under Kevin Young, with frequent use of zone as well, neither of which are ideal schemes against this Texas Tech offense. BYU has also been quite lucky in their 3PT% defense, with Big 12 opponents shooting just 25% and Synergy shot quality data showing .46 PPP of under performance on guarded jump shots, the highest mark in the entire database.
BYU has shown a propensity to fall behind early before AJD take over mode in the second half, and the Cougars in fact lead the country in second half scoring margin, per TeamRankings data. That's probably an ill-advised course of action however against an elite offense in an elite home environment.
Great individual matchups for the Cougars to exploit, but not sure it's going to be enough with the way TTU moves and shoots the ball against a defense that I'm not fully sold on, particularly with the regression owed in a hostile USA. - Jordan Majewski
A Games
#27 Kentucky at #18 Tennessee (-5), 12 PM ET, ESPN.
As soon as Kentucky went down early against LSU, a common refrain began amongst the unfortunately large variety of Tennessee fans in my personal life: "they'll shoot 50% from deep in TBA." It's not really true that Kentucky has been that spectacular in Knoxville over the years - check their results in 2018, 2019, 2022, and so on - but in their last two trips to TBA, Kentucky has indeed shot 50% from 3. The more you know.
Kentucky's comeback means they are BACK and that the SEASON IS SAVED, or perhaps this is what you would write if your computer background was Anthony Davis for the 15th consecutive season on media row. Meanwhile, Tennessee got sent to the shadow realm by Florida on Saturday and had to survive an ugly shooting day midweek to escape a frisky-if-not-great Texas A&M team. If you're purely a vibes reader, you will be highly tempted by Kentucky.
Vibes readers have perhaps not watched Kentucky's offense much. In the last 10 games, this is the 93rd-best offense in America (!), one that is barely above the national average in 2PT%, below it in 3PT%, and offers up a 34th-percentile half-court offense, per CBB Analytics. The Hoop-Explorer play type splits here are actually very telling:
Their main ideas at the moment are telling Otega Oweh to get downhill in transition or telling Otega Oweh to get downhill in a half-court set. If Oweh draws a lot of fouls and scores efficiently, this works; if not, which is more likely against a Tennessee defense that is not its best self but restricts gaps and denies the rim very well, this could be another really ugly offensive showing by the Wildcats. Once again, they're probably gonna have to rip off a 50% 3PT day to win in Knoxville, because a half-court game could kill them. - Will Warren
#10 Florida at #11 Vanderbilt (-2), 2 PM ET, ESPN.
For the first time this year, Vandy’s lack of size was noticeable against Texas, with the Horns shooting 59% on 2PT attempts (Vandy allowed a season high in post offense) and securing 44% of their misses. Vandy did generate a 23% turnover rate with their elite ball pressure from multiple positions, but on nonturnover possessions they couldn’t keep Texas’ big ballhandling wings out of the paint/off the free throw line consistently. All of this can of course be exploited to an even larger degree against Florida’s jumbo lineup and hyper skilled frontcourt, who also happen to be the best two way rebounding team in the sport. It’s probably fair to paint this as another speed vs size matchup and/or Vandy’s elite backcourt vs Florida’s elite frontcourt, but that loss at Texas was the first time the Dores had really struggled to finish at the rim despite their lack of size (99th percentile finishing efficiency on the season, per Synergy data). Vandy scored just .78 PPP at the rim, which was by far their worst efficiency mark of the season in that regard, and Florida’s frontcourt is an entirely different tier. While Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles will rightfully get the backcourt praise, Boogie Fland has brought some semblance of balance to the UF lineup, as they’re finally getting some consistent backcourt production, even if the 3PT shooting woes continue (the Gators are still well below 30% on the year, and have actually been slightly worse in SEC play). Fland and Lee don’t have to shoot the ball well necessarily for Florida to win this game, but they absolutely have to limit turnovers against the Dores’ outstanding ball pressure, otherwise Florida’s rebounding/paint/existence of Haugh edge starts to deteriorate.
Last year Vandy really scored efficiently in PNR offense, an area Florida has struggled to defend all season (19th percentile efficiency rating on an 89th percentile rate, per Synergy data), and Byington adds a lot of complex off-ball layers to it for his shooters like Tyler Nickel. Generally speaking, getting Florida’s size to defend in movement has been the best course of action against this defense, but worth noting Fland and even Lee (who is still pretty brutal off the ball) have shut down Jeremiah Wilkinson, Ja’Kobi Gillespie, and Nijel Pack in three straight games after Anthony Robinson torched their ball screen coverage in Columbia. Vandy does have multiple shot creators/makers however (that’s the entire thesis of Mark Byington’s roster build). What Texas did to Vandy is obviously replicable, even more so, by the Gators, but there’s definitely a path for Vandy to turnover the Gators, outrun them in transition, and spread out their size advantage in the frontcourt. But if Vandy can’t run up a substantial 3PT differential, it’s probably a big road win for Florida. Either way, it should lead to ripe scoring conditions, especially with the foul rates these two have tallied in league play. - Jordan Majewski
#21 Iowa at #33 Indiana (-1), 2 PM ET, FOX.
The bitter irony of this IU basketball season has been that this team is the opposite of the much ridiculed Mike Woodson era teams, but still equally problematic. Woodson’s IU teams were often rim dominant with no perimeter shooting, while Darian DeVries’ first roster has been built entirely on the perimeter with zero legitimate paint presence. IU has been more than competitive in all of their losses (save Louisville), holding halftime and/or second half leads in 4 of those 5 losses. But eventually the lack of rebounding and physicality runs them thin and they falter, dramatically proven at home against Nebraska and then reinforced at Michigan State Tuesday. IU’s frontcourt Tuesday night produced 15 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 turnovers, while Sparty’s production was 28 points, 20 rebounds, and 4 turnovers. The promise of this roster construction was that IU would balance that lack of physicality and frontcourt production with skill and shooting, and they are shooting 38% from 3 in B1G play with a +2% turnover rate delta, which has allowed them to win the games against the lower tier of the league. Iowa, despite 3 straight league losses, is not in that lower tier, but they also don’t have the overwhelming frontcourt advantage that Michigan State enjoyed.
Iowa played their Hawkeye hearts out in a battle at Mackey Wednesday night, and had a lot of first half success with their hedge against the Braden Smith ball screen.
But as Braden Smith tends to do, he figured it out and Purdue scored 45 points in the 2H. Indiana similarly had success against Michigan State's hedging, and effectively used it against the Sparty defense, completely freezing Kohler with ghost screens and slips to the point Izzo eventually just started dropping.
Realistically MSU should have been in drop from the beginning, as IU's offense has been most efficient against hedge heavy schemes all season because of their ball and player movement, but have been pedestrian in ball screen creation (59th percentile, per Synergy data). Speaking of drop coverage, IU's defense is built entirely around denying rim access since they can't defend when teams have gotten the ball into deep paint. Dropping against Bennett Stirtz is generally not advised (even Illinois mixed up their coverage against him), and his least efficient games have come against Michigan State's hedge and Iowa State's blitz/traps. Jeremy Fears just lit IU's drop on fire, and I shudder to think what Stirtz can do.
Indiana is very capable of grinding out halfcourt possessions against this Iowa defensive scheme (97th percentile in halfcourt offensive efficiency rating for the Hoosiers), but they desperately need Tucker DeVries to have an efficient game against top tier competition, something he hasn't done often this season (he was shredding Nebraska help heavy scheme until his inexplicably ill-advised swatting defensively popped up again). Perhaps he'll be more motivated not to slap down on blow-bys against his boyhood favorite team. Iowa similarly can exploit Indiana's defense in the halfcourt, but they're not the big boy bullies in the frontcourt that the Hoosiers have struggled with. Of course the simpler lens to view this game through is the fact Indiana is at Assembly Hall and Iowa is away from CHA. Both teams are bottom 10ish in Haslam's "away from home" ratings (Iowa 3rd and Indiana 11th). Iowa is also capping off a pretty brutal week, which started with a flu game Sunday vs Illinois, a quick turnaround to Purdue on Wednesday, and now Bloomington Saturday. One thing I can guarantee, if Indiana loses, prepare yourself for the "we hired the wrong guy" chatter on the interwebs. - Jordan Majewski
#31 Saint Mary's (-1) at #49 Santa Clara, 7 PM ET, ESPN+.
Despite these teams being within 90 KenPom spots or closer in each of their last eight meetings, Saint Mary's is 8-0. Just pure dominance by the Gaels, as is with everyone in the WCC that isn't Gonzaga. But could this year be different? Saint Mary's No. 31 ranking in KenPom would be their lowest finish since 2021, and Santa Clara's No. 49 ranking would be their highest in the history of the database.
Unlike in previous seasons where the Broncos are reliant on one star, this year's team has eight different rotation players who use somewhere between 18 and 24% of possessions when they're on the floor. That's their entire main group except for big man Jake Ensminger, who may actually be the team's most valuable player, and sports a 93rd% on/off rating, per CBB Analytics.
Santa Clara also boasts the WCC's best turnover defense, which is probably their best chance at knocking off the Gaels for the first time since now-NBA All-Star Jalen Williams had 18 points and 10 assists. While Saint Mary's is always stout with the ball in hand, its 186th-ranked turnover offense is the lowest a Randy Bennett team has been placed in that statistic since 2005-06. And in their one game against a turnover defense as stout as Santa Clara's, they turned it over on 22.5% of possessions against North Texas. Perhaps important context is Saint Mary's still won the game by 31.
All said, this game is as much matchup as it is scheme. Santa Clara could force 20 turnovers. They could compete on the glass. They could hit 13 threes. But they still have to beat Saint Mary's. It would be by far the team's best win of the season, and a needed one to their slim chances of an NCAA Tournament resume. - Matthew Winick
#19 St. John's at #26 Villanova (-1), 8 PM ET, Peacock.
Rick Pitino has finally started using what objectively seemed like his best lineup at the beginning of the year, starting a three-headed frontcourt monster of Zuby Ejiofor, Dillon Mitchell and Bryce Hopkins all together. Along with Oziyah Sellers and Ian Jackson, that is actually the same lineup Pitino used in the season opener – but he mysteriously did not go back to until recently.
In the three games since resurrecting that group, St. John’s has been on a tear, drilling both Butler and Creighton on the road before blowing out a decrepit Marquette squad at home. The Ejiofor/Mitchell/Hopkins combination has played 137 minutes together and has mauled foes on the boards: 40.8% offensive rebound rate, a mark that lands in the 98th percentile nationally, per CBB Analytics. Impressively, that combo has also taken terrific care of the ball, posting a meager 10.6% turnover rate (99th percentile).
Put more simply: that group consistently gets shots up on the rim, and they chase down misses with a terrifying zeal.
That spells trouble for Villanova, who is essentially a one-man team on the defensive boards. Granted, that one player is Duke Brennan, a Mount Everest of a man on the boards. But he will have his hands full against the St. John’s offensive glass onslaught; Villanova as a team only ranks 208th nationally in defensive rebound rate per KenPom.
Villanova must take care of the ball and keep the game in the half court, finding efficient ways to score against a set defense. Fortunately, that has been a teamwide strength, with rookie guard Acaden Lewis and grizzled vet Devin Askew providing steady playmaking on the ball. Whether that holds up against a Johnnies defense that has really ramped up the pressure remains to be seen, though, as Nova has not seen a havoc-inducing foe
One additional wrinkle to watch: Villanova zones on 10.0% of possessions, per Synergy, and that look could frustrate a St. John’s squad that lacks proficient perimeter bombers – particularly in a cavernous pro arena (this one is at the Philadelphia 76ers’ Xfinity Mobile Arena). However, that look would likely expose the Wildcats even further on the defensive glass. - Jim Root
B Games
#14 Virginia (-2) at #36 SMU, 12 PM ET, ESPN.
I would argue that no team has improved its star as much as Virginia has since December 1. Since the turn of the calendar to Doug Gottlieb's favorite work month, UVA's played like a top-5 team at Torvik, has a top-10 offense and defense, and is seventh in WAB. Essentially, you have a Virginia team playing like a 2 seed currently valued nationally at a 3 or a 4. SMU, meanwhile, has a 2 seed's offense and a 34 seed's defense.
Still, as impressive as this UVA defense has been, there are minor cracks you can find if you look closely. Straight-line downhill attacks haven't been great for UVA, and while they've got an exceptional FG% allowed at the rim, it's come at the cost of an above-average defensive foul rate. This is not an SMU team I generally look to for straight-line attacks, but Boopie Miller will have plentiful opportunities here to get to the rack.
Also, the UVA 5th figure doesn't come without some qualifiers. The Cavs are +10.9% from 3 over the last six weeks, which pairs nicely with +12.9% from 2 but I'd argue only one of those is somewhat likely to hold. Against an SMU team that way overhelps on drives to the rim, Virginia should be able to generate a litany of kickout open threes, but all it takes is one night where these aren't falling and you'll get a mildly surprising result. - Will Warren
#17 Alabama (-4) at #57 Oklahoma, 1 PM ET, SEC Network.
Expect a fireworks display in Norman from two explosive offenses – especially since they are both paired with shaky defenses that struggle to get stops. Alabama (#2 nationally in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, #71 on defense) and Oklahoma (#37, #131) are decidedly tilted towards scoring, and stops could be at a premium as a result.
Alabama’s explosive backcourt will get wherever it wants in this one. Labaron Philon, Aden Holloway and Amari Allen will all see plenty of drop coverage from the conservative Sooner scheme, but that’s not necessarily a recipe for success. Nate Oats’ squad will make a point to set ball screens well above the 3P line, giving the guards chances to pull up from deep – a frequent occurrence for the Tide (#2 nationally in 3PA rate).
OU’s guard tandem – Nijel Pack, Xzayvier Brown – can be devastating on offense, but neither player excels at keeping opposing guards in front on the perimeter. Philon should have a huge day, and if OU’s wings drift away from shooters, he will spray the ball around and the Tide will launch from the perimeter.
I am exceedingly nervous about OU defending an offense that spaces the court this well. Alabama ranks in the 90th percentile nationally in frequency of “long range 3s” attempted, as Oats knows the value in forcing opponents to extend well beyond the 3-point arc. That opens driving gaps for Philon and Allen in particular.
Notably, Alabama has had issues in this setting before, having gotten blasted at OU, 93-69, as part of the SEC/Big 12 Challenge back in 2023. That Tide team earned the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, so that result and margin was shocking. Alabama also lost at OU during the COVID season in 2021. Oats and the Tide got some convincing revenge last year, thrashing OU 107-79 in Tuscaloosa, but they must prove they can get it done in Norman, as well.
The concern for the Tide is depth: with Latrell Wrightsell and Taylor Bol Bowen questionable for this one, the Tide could only have eight healthy scholarship players – and one of them is Noah Williamson. That makes it tough to play the Tide’s preferred frenetic tempo for 40 minutes, though they managed it just fine at Mississippi State on Tuesday. Oats is hoping to get both Wrightsell and Bol Bowen back, but their absences could extend into next week. - Jim Root
#40 UCLA at #38 Ohio State (-3), 1 PM ET, CBS.
No.
...fine.
Upon remembering that I am indeed paid to do this, here is your preview of a UCLA/Ohio State game that is possibly the most Battle of Mid that has ever Midded in Mid History. The only reason one would watch this is if there's a ton of Tournament positioning and/or bid likelihood at stake, and, well, there is.
Fine, then. I actually think this is an incredible Vibes Test for two teams with fanbases that are very frustrated with their coaches, both of whom may have legitimate reasons for why their rosters aren't working (injuries, NIL, various spiritual gremlins). If UCLA wins, they'll have gone 2-0 on their latest Midwest road trip, and while neither Ohio State nor Penn State will be that likely to make the future NCAA Tournament, it is meaningful for the West Coast teams to go undefeated any time they have to trek east.
Ohio State, meanwhile, kinda badly needs this one. There's plenty of time to make a run down the stretch here, but after this game and a home affair with Minnesota on January 20, Ohio State's schedule goes supernova. They've still gotta play Michigan twice, Purdue at home, Virginia at a neutral Michigan State on the road, Iowa on the road, Wisconsin twice, and I got this far without mentioning they have to play Indiana, too. After that Minnesota game, they're favored in just six of their remaining 13 games.
So: which of two crappy frontcourt defenses slows the other down? OSU is 21-3 under Diebler when shooting 53% or better from two, and considering UCLA has allowed 56% (!) on average to non-Quad 3s, I think they'd be in business. Then again, when UCLA goes north of 50% under Cronin they're 66-14 since COVID. Can either of these teams stop the other, especially when UCLA is excellent at attacking through the post (where OSU is bad defensively) and OSU's roster of plus shot-makers is simply better than anything UCLA offers on D? - Will Warren
#29 Miami FL at #28 Clemson (-4), 2:15 PM ET, The CW.
Quite a few “strength on strength” aspects to this matchup. Miami plays fast (93rd percentile transition rate), at the rim (99th percentile rate), and dominates the offensive glass (12th nationally in offensive rebounding rate, per KenPom). Clemson meanwhile allows an 11th percentile transition rate, an 8th percentile rim rate, and is a top 10 defensive rebounding rate team. Both offenses filter a lot of action through their frontcourts, but Clemson tends to space their bigs out from the paint while Miami is far more block tethered (although Malik Reneau has been the most effective he’s ever been as a shooter, which was a low bar to clear honestly). Both defenses are predominantly in drop coverage on the ball screen, but neither offense really runs a ton of ball screen/PNR action. However, I trust Miami’s on-ball creators more, as Tre Donaldson, Shelton Henderson, and even Tru Washington have been exceptionally efficient as ball screen creators, with Henderson being particularly exceptional of late. Miami can’t shoot and has pretty poor spacing in the halfcourt, but they’re 4-0 in the ACC despite a near -10% 3PT shooting delta by dominating the paint, offensive glass, and free throw line. I’ve already noted Clemson’s strengths in limiting rim production and second chance points, but they’ve surprisingly fouled at one of the highest rates in the ACC, atypical for a Brad Brownell defense. I’ve gone back and forth on this one quite a bit, as I’m worried Miami’s record is built on an easy schedule that has extended into a soft entry into ACC play. I think Udeh and Reneau will have issues defending Clemson’s bigs away from the paint, but Clemson also forces a ton of 1v1 defensively, which is exactly how Miami wants to operate, as they don’t have the spacing when defenses crowd the paint. I guess when push comes to shove, Miami being on the road with a lot of their shot volume edges muted should be the dealbreaker for me. - Jordan Majewski
#2 Arizona (-9) at #43 UCF, 4 PM ET, ESPN.
If you like volatility, this could be the game for you. Maybe. Arizona is still undefeated and still #1, with either the sport's most or second-most terrifying two-way attack available. UCF, meanwhile, is extremely fun on offense and extremely chaotic on defense, where they are vulnerable to just about everything.
Still, a path does exist for something interesting to happen here. If UCF is able to attack through the post and win on the boards, this is a live game. The Knights have been at their best this year when Jamichael Stillwell is scoring efficiently down low, and +11 per 100 on the boards this year is quite stout. Arizona has not once lost the combined rebound/turnover battle this year, coming closest against Florida where they were +3. Meanwhile, UCF's lost it just thrice and only once in their last 12 games. This could be a behemoth battle down low...or, probably more likely, this is yet another Arizona bloodletting of someone they're simply better than. - Will Warren
#24 Arkansas at #32 Georgia (-2), 4 PM ET, ESPN.
If you like up-and-down basketball that may or may not have a ceiling on its final score, I think you will enjoy this one. Arkansas wants to play really fast offensively; Georgia may play the most quickly offensively out of anyone not named IU Indy. Torvik's projected score here is 95-94, which sounds absurd but not to anyone who has seen either of these two teams play in the last two months.
Georgia has seen exactly one game finish south of 73 possessions, and it was against traditional changeup South Carolina, who is possibly the most effective team in the SEC at dictating a slow pace. Otherwise, it's been the Daytona 500 every week. If Arkansas can slow the Bulldogs down in transition, then they can win; if not, they're going to get steamrolled.
There's not really a complex read of this game, because it's quite simple: if Georgia forces Arkansas into one-shot possessions and prevents Darius Acuff and crew from getting to the rim over and over, it won't be as close as this looks. Then again, if Arkansas slows the game down on defense and funnels Georgia into the midrange as is highly possible, they could steal one on the road. Most likely is that neither team can do either of these things and you're in for a first-to-90 banger. - Will Warren
#12 Michigan State (-5) at #50 Washington, 6 PM ET, BTN.
Double big vs double big, these are the games Tom Izzo dreams about. Washington has actually added a third big to the rotation with Jacob Ognacevic finally debuting against Michigan (and playing well), and Wes Yates returned in a limited role (Des Claude however has opted to shut it down for the year in breaking news last night). Washington, despite the double big lineup of Steinbach and Kepnang, has been one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the league, and a below average rim defense, which isn't ideal against Sparty. Additionally, Washington doesn't have anywhere close to the spacing and ball movement needed to handle Michigan State's high hedge. Oh and they don't generate turnovers, where Michigan State's offensive has struggled with an unseemly 24% rate in league games. UW's best attribute from an analytical perspective in this matchup is that they deny transition at an elite rate (3rd percentile allowed), which is always key at slowing down the Sparty offense. Other than that and Sparty heading to the PNW for the first time (MSU faceplanted offensively in their first west coast trip last season in SoCal), and I don't see many matchup advantages for the Huskies, and it's difficult to get Seattle high hedging UW's offense into oblivion in the noncon out of mind when evaluating this matchup. - Jordan Majewski
#4 Purdue (-7) at #51 USC, 6 PM ET, Peacock.
It's plausible this one is rated too highly on our weekend priorities board. Since December began, USC is 77th in America at Torvik, two spots behind South Carolina and four behind DePaul. They're playing like the 14th or 15th-best team in the Big Ten, and while their overall resume is doing serious heavy lifting (they're still 22nd in WAB), the metrics suggest a team headed for some pretty rough times.
They could plausibly stave them off here with a specific game script. Since 2021, Purdue is 13-17 when opponents attempt 18 or more free throws. This does not sound like a huge number, but considering the median Boilermaker game in this era sees them allow 14 FTAs and that Purdue is 119-15 in all other games, you can see the path to a competitive 40-minute affair.
That path requires USC to simply get fouled a lot, which means they have to hunt Ezra Ausar in the post and that Chad Baker-Mazara has to get to the rim against a thick-if-not-terrifying Purdue frontline. I would argue it's not a coincidence that USC's three losses have seen the Trojans score 28 or fewer points at the rim. In particular, it's not a coincidence that Ausar has shot 38% from two in USC's three losses and 64% in their two wins. Beyond free throws, the guy's just gotta finish layups to give the Trojans a fighting chance.
Here's the two numbers to watch for. If USC can get to 18+ free throw attempts, they have a chance. If Ausar and CBM can combine for 40+ points, USC has a very real chance. Any other combination of results, and this is likely Purdue ensuring USC continues to see its win-loss record catch up with its metrics. - Will Warren
#42 Texas A&M at #37 Texas (-4), 6 PM ET, ESPN.
The rivalry that hasn't been much of a rivalry: Texas has won eight of its last 10 games against Texas A&M, and a remarkable 45 of the last 56. They've also won 24 of their last 25 home games in this matchup, and 11 straight in Austin. Of course, this is the first-ever meeting for both Sean Miller and Bucky McMillan in this matchup, so take that historical precedent with a relative grain of salt.
Texas has underratedly been amongst the most physical teams in the country, the only team to rank in the Top 15 nationally in both offensive rebounding rate and free throw rate. The Longhorns are fresh off two games where they dominated both areas in surprising wins over Alabama on the road, and over then-undefeated Vanderbilt.
Texas A&M is perhaps one of the least physical teams in the SEC, ranking last in league play in defensive rebounding rate, having just lost the boards 60-35 in an overtime loss to Tennessee. But they still nearly won that game in a difficult place to play because they were the far better shotmaking team, and that will need to hold true here.
The Longhorns' rim defense has led a lot to be desired this season, but their drop coverage does dissuade 3-point looks, which is where the Aggies are looking to score a bulk of their points. If Texas can drag Texas A&M into a game based around the interior, it will be a happy evening in Austin, and another big win for Sean Miller and Co. - Matthew Winick
#48 New Mexico at #46 San Diego State (-4), 8 PM ET, CBSSN.
Raise your hand if you expected this game to be pivotal in deciding who is the second-best team in the Mountain West this year…
Put your hands down, liars! SDSU was the clear preseason favorite, while New Mexico was universally pegged as a middle of the pack squad following a “reset” offseason where Eric Olen was hired from UC San Diego to replace the departed Richard Pitino. No one saw this coming!
And yet here we are, with both teams feverishly trying to keep up with the Utah State fireball atop the league standings. Both teams got off to pedestrian starts, but they have hit the gas pedal thus far in conference play.
Per Bart Torvik, in league games only, New Mexico ranks 17th nationally with the #8 defense, while San Diego State is 28th with the #10 defense. These two teams will scrap and claw to force difficult shots, so expect a rock fight – and historical matchups between these coaches would support that notion.
At UCSD. Olen faced SDSU annually back when the Aztecs were “big brother” in America’s Finest City (a real nickname for San Diego, apparently – my goodness, the bravado!). Olen’s Tritons never quite toppled the Aztecs, but he gave them hell in both 2023-24 (SDSU won 63-62 at UCSD) and 2025 (SDSU won 63-58 at home on opening night).
Both teams are deep with impressive size up front featuring an elite shot blocker (Magoon Gwath for SDSU, JT Rock for New Mexico). They both allow 3s at a top 10 rate nationally, but that is by design – long possessions equal tough triples as the shot clock winds down. Shockingly, that might be an edge for the Aztecs, who have a few efficient marksmen (BJ Davis, Elzie Harrington, Reese Dixon-Waters) this year, though UNM has more willing volume shooters. - Jim Root
C Games
#64 Butler at #44 Seton Hall (-6), 12 PM ET, TNT.
Normally our own Lukas Harkins takes these, but he's off for the weekend, so I'll step in. The Thad-era Butler formula is very simple: do opponents make under 52% of their twos? If so, Butler probably won (41-17). Did the opponent experience real interior success and shoot 52% or better? If so, Butler probably lost (15-42).
Seton Hall is a really unusual matchup for any number of reasons, but one is that this is a team that averages 49% from two and has touched that 52% mark exactly once (UConn!) in their last six games. SHU's toiletball offense is not one that's going to run away here. The problem for me, I guess: where exactly is Butler going to produce consistent points? The only offenses who've scored with consistency against Seton Hall this year are ones with great frontcourts that rebound well and get to the foul line extremely often. Butler kinda has this with Michael Ajayi and Ajayi alone, but you really need a second guy to hammer this point home and steal one on the road. Is Yohan Traore up for the challenge? - Will Warren
#72 Notre Dame at #55 Virginia Tech (-5), 12 PM ET, ACC Network.
Boy, this game is certainly for someone, probably #SearchSZN types. Over each team's last 10 games, this is #84 at #50, and Notre Dame's offense has been nothing short of abhorrent the second Markus Burton went down. Virginia Tech is not efficient, either, and they're running really hot from 3 (+7% last 10 games). Notre Dame does offer great defensive rebounding and pretty good perimeter defense. If nothing else, this constitutes their path: piling up one-shot stops on a Virginia Tech team that's not good at rebounding and is due for some 3PT% regression defensively. - Will Warren
#182 Buffalo at #87 Miami (OH) (-11), 1 PM ET, ESPN+.
Again, all Miami (OH) games will be listed until the end of time, and that is simply the way the world will work. The RedHawks are now 18-0 and are favored in every remaining game; while they've only got a 3% chance of actually going 31-0, that's 3% higher than anyone would've given them two months ago. It's plausible they can at least get to 28-3 or 29-2, a pair of W-L records that would make the committee think about things.
Buffalo prior to this year under George Halcovage was quite abject, and their white-hot November has turned into a December and January where they've looked like a fine if not special mid-pack MAC crew. Still, I can't say I love this matchup for them, in part because Travis Steele is 4-1 straight-up and 5-0 ATS against Buffalo as HC and because Buffalo's worst defensive feature (overhelping on drives to the rim and allowing a boatload of open threes) is synonymous with Miami's best offensive feature.
One item I'd monitor here: from time to time the last few weeks, Buffalo has experimented with a matchup 1-2-2/3-2 zone that has produced great results in a very small sample size. For obvious reasons, the RedHawks have barely faced any zones at all this year, but as a changeup (and perhaps a desperate choice), could it throw them for a loop? I'll wager not, but you never know. - Will Warren
#129 St. Thomas at #135 North Dakota State (-2), 2 PM ET, Midco Sports.
Easily the two best teams in the Summit and a likely conference final preview, as the Tommies and Bison have steamrolled to a collective 9-0 start in league play. Two elite motion heavy halfcourt offenses here, as NDSU plays 4 shooters around Markhi Strickland's efficienct post and booty ball production, and the Bison offense has been flamethrowing since Dave Richman flipped Treyson Anderson and Noah Feddersen's minutes at the 5. That switch opened up even more space for Strickland and stretched defenses even further, with NDSU scoring 1.24 PPP since.
The Tommies meanwhile roll mostly vacated lane, which creates an 89th percentile catch and shoot rate (where the Tommies haven't missed all season) and allows Nolan Minessale to find isolation matchups he can pick on and attack with a free path to the rim, where he's an elite finisher and contact sponge.
Johnny Tauer has won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Dave Richman after losing the first two in the Tommies' first season coming up from D3, as his spacing and motion system has generally picked apart NDSU's drop coverage. However, Richman has completely changed his defensive scheme to be far more aggressive on the ball, but hedging/sending two and surrendering a high 3PTA rate against the Tommies' spacing, ball movement, and shooting is begging for an even worse fate.
St. Thomas is coming off an alltime shooting night against North Dakota's aggressive hedge, doubles, and pressure (16-24 from 3 and they actually missed as many free throws as they did total field goal attempts- 15). - Jordan Majewski
#117 Bradley at #99 Illinois State (-7), 2 PM ET, ESPN2.
Illinois State enters this rivalry game reeling, having last 3 straight to what are probably all bottom half Valley teams. The common thread in ISUred's three game slide has been Chase Walker's defense either in straight up rim protection vs ISUblue or offenses like Valpo exploiting his lack of mobility with their multi-dimesional pair of 4 men. Bradley's ability to exploit drop coverage however is almost entirely reliant on the efficiency of Jaquan Johnson and Montana Wheeler in ball screen/dribble production, as they produce little offense at the rim and their frontcourt isn't particularly mobile. Johnson erupted against Evansville (and Bradley needed every one of his 35 points), but Bradley's two league losses came against drop coverages where he had his two worst offensive games of the year. If he's winning the ball screen and dribble vs ISU's drop, Bradley's going to have a great chance.
On the other end, Bradley is far more aggressive on the ball screen defensively, frequently hedging and disrupting. That leads to a high 3PTA and catch and shoot rate allowed by the Braves, where they've been unlucky defending them, with .20 PPP of regression owed on contested catch and shoots for opposing offenses. It's generally not recommended to hedge and help on Walker defensively, as ISU generates a 95th percentile open catch and shoot rate, and Walker is a strong passer out of the post and short roll.
The final issue for Bradley is how dreadful they've been on the road, especially defensively (although that 3PT luck is a factor here, with home teams shooting 41%, but they also give up a high rate). Bradley was torched on the road by the league's best offenses in Belmont and Murray State, and needed 4OTs to beat Indiana State and Evansville. Unless Johnson can nuke in ball screens (very possible), I think we see ISUred finally back in the win column. - Jordan Majewski
#22 Utah State (-6) at #94 Grand Canyon, 2:30 PM ET, FS1.
I'll keep this short because it's 6:43 AM ET as I'm finishing this one up. In games where Utah State either shoots >59% from two or holds opponents under 52% from two under Jerrod Calhoun, they're an incredible 32-1. With neither happening in a game: 7-8, and arguably deserving of worse results. It's notable because Grand Canyon's defense is legitimately very good and has been terrific at stunting actions to the rim all year long, while downhill rim attacks are roughly the only thing they do well on offense. The path is real! The path is just not that likely, because Utah State is 10+ points better than GCU on a neutral court. - Will Warren
#16 Nebraska (-6) at #61 Northwestern, 4 PM ET, BTN.
If you love post doubles and traps, this is the game for you my friend. Both defenses are hellbent on not getting beat on the dribble or at the rim (particularly the Huskers), so like most Nebraska games, three point variance is quite a factor. Nebraska's ball movement and spacing with Rienk Mast at the hub allows them to pretty much avoid everything NU wants to do scheme wise on the defensive end.
On the other end, Northwestern actually has outstanding ball movement and ball control as well with the lowest turnover rate in the country (Nebraska's heavy handedness on the ball screen with the highest "commit" rate in the country is producing the league's highest turnover rate), but they severely lack the spacing and shooting necessary to beat this Husker defensive scheme from the perimeter. The Wildcats just had Jayden Reid looking like Boo Buie against Illinois, and still were totally controlled by the Illini at home. Tough schematic matchup for Northwestern, who will need an uncharacteristically strong perimeter shooting game and the Huskers to be cold on the road if they're going to hand Nebraska their first loss of the season, and conversely notch their first B1G win of the year. - Jordan Majewski
#35 North Carolina (-3) at #84 California, 4 PM ET, ACC Network.
Ahead of UNC's loss to Stanford, I noted how poorly the Heels' defense against primary ball screen operators had been and how sloppy and miscommunicated their switching had been. Sure enough, Ebuka Okorie absolutely obliterated the Heels in ball screens, and UNC has surrendered 91 points to primary ball handlers in the last 3 games, a number which is honestly hard to fathom. Surely Hubert Davis has some sort of fix or even just a band-aid (Terrence Oglesby broke down some quick fixes here)...or maybe Justin Pippen and Dai Dai Ames each drop a 30 spot. The good news for the Heels is the frontcourt disparity is just overwhelming, and the idea of Chris Bell or John Camden defending Caleb Wilson is shudder inducing. Cal is allowing 61% shooting on 2PT attempts in ACC play, and has allowed their most efficient rim performances from opposing ACC offenses in back to back to back games. - Jordan Majewski
#142 Arkansas State at #119 Troy (-4), 4:30 PM ET, ESPN+.
Oh, Troy. A team so complicated that it can have six losses on the season but be one Jordan Marsh prayer away from being 3-0 against its three best opponents (USC, San Diego State, UAB). The Trojans play a strict 8-man rotation, and use their bench less than all but 10 teams in the country. Their point guard is 6-7 Victor Valdes, their two best shooters are Campbell brothers Cooper and Cobi, and their best all-around player is lone returning starter Thomas Dowd. We could write this entire section just about how unique Troy is.
Arkansas State couldn't be more different. The Red Wolves have started 10 different players this season, and seven of them have started at least seven games. They return zero minutes from last season for new head coach Ryan Pannone. Pannone comes from the Nate Oats tree, just like his predecessor Bryan Hodgson, where he prioritizes a rim-and-3 offensive approach and implements a drop coverage defensively. They thrive on the glass, but struggle in the turnover department.
Coincidentally, the highest-ranked KenPom team that Arkansas State has beaten this year was Troy. The Red Wolves won this matchup at home two weeks ago, using a 44-30 rebounding edge and a 29-18 free throw edge to grab a lead as big as 20 and never looking back. Troy led for less than two minutes of the entire contest.
Perhaps the biggest reason for Troy's trouble was Arkansas State's physicality hampered the availability of their crucial starting five. Troy's three leading scorers - Valdes, Dowd, and Campbell, all had at least four fouls, and leading usage man Valdes fouled out in just 28 minutes. If Arkansas State can impose their will and force Troy to their bench again, it could be a season sweep in a battle of the two best teams in the Sun Belt. - Matthew Winick
#6 Duke (-10) at #70 Stanford, 6 PM ET, ACC Network.
Hats off to Stanford for playing one heck of a basketball game to knock off a North Carolina team that is probably paying at least 10x what the Cardinal are for their roster. Of course, it took a monstrous 57% 3-point clip on a 50% 3-point rate to get the job done, with role players Ryan Agarwal and Jeremy Dent-Smith taking advantage of poor UNC defensive communication to the tune of a combined 11/16 from deep. It was both the players' highest 3-point output of their Division-I career, a total of 92 games between them.
That is all before talking about the clear star of the show, freshman phenom Ebuka Okorie, who set a career-high with both 36 points and nine assists. Stanford moved to 10-0 when he scores at least 20 points. Okorie is currently the only player in Sports-Reference.com's database to ever average a 23%+ assist rate, a sub-6% turnover rate, and a 57%+ true shooting percentage. Ever. And he's a freshman! Oh, and he can do things like this on the floor.
At this point, you may be thinking what I'm thinking. If Dent-Smith and Agarwal both had their best shooting game ever AND Okorie put on a career-best performance and they still needed to comeback and barely escaped the Tar Heels, then what could they possibly follow up with against the bigger and badder Blue Devils?
Okorie may have had a chance for ACC Freshman of the Year if Cameron Boozer didn't exist, but he most certainly does. I could do queries galore to demonstrate how much of a statistical anomaly Boozer is. He dropped a cool and casual 21 points, 13 rebounds, and three assists as Duke took down Cal on Wednesday, and no one batted an eye. He's tied for first in the country in KenPom Game MVP awards with Houston's Kingston Flemings and... wait... does that say Ebuka Okorie?
Man, this freshman class. Who cares about the score. You are watching two of the 10 best first-year players in one of the best freshman classes of all-time take the floor here. Watch it. - Matthew Winick
#66 Belmont (-4) at #128 Southern Illinois, 7 PM ET, ESPN+.
I'm at least 4% Belmont Bruin, and at one point in my college career (Christmas break, freshman year), I did think about transferring to Belmont. This would have created a serious sliding doors event in my life that brings up some uncomfortable questions and hypotheticals, but on the other hand, I would have had a degree from the university responsible for some of the most fun men's basketball offenses of the last 20 years. Possibly worth it.
Anyway, in this game, I look for two things on the Belmont front: can they really continue to shoot 41.4% from 3 as they have since December 1, and are they really a +16.4% 2PT% team that indicates an elite two-way frontcourt? Belmont has routinely had good posts in my lifetime, but this Bruins team doesn't go through traditional post-ups all that often. Instead, Sam Orme and Drew Scharnowski are both excellent offensive fits for Belmont's numerous backdoor and perimeter cuts, which is where they're scoring most often.
This will be tested mightily against an SIU defense that may be best at eliminating backdoor cuts, instead preferring to sit back in drop coverage when possible. I don't love this matchup for them overall - any team that allows a lot of catch-and-shoots, even guarded ones, could be put in hell from tipoff by Belmont's nationally elite catch-and-shoot offense - but it's a home game in the MVC, and as I've said before, at some point if you want to be Southern Illinois again, you better win some big home games. - Will Warren
#7 Gonzaga (-16) at #120 Seattle, 10 PM ET, ESPN+.
I mentioned in the Week 11 Watchlist that Gonzaga is probably done with their twice-a-season Surprisingly Close WCC Game Against Not Saint Mary's, but if anyone's gonna do it I think it might be the Seattle team that just took them to overtime a couple weeks ago. Seattle offers some bugaboos to the Gonzaga formula: strong transition denial, an ability to handle post-ups 1-on-1 (you guys have got to learn the name Will Heimbrodt), and strong guards that don't often need secondary help at the basket.
The problem in the first game was less that Seattle cracked on defense and more that they stopped making absurd shots on offense, which is the problem in an average game anyway. Against top-300 competition, Seattle has the 217th-best offense in the sport, loses the rebounding battle by 10 per 100 possessions, and can only reliably create through Houran Dan or Austin Maurer in the post. Their backcourt can simply get swallowed up sometimes, which seems less than ideal against the best Gonzaga perimeter defense since 2020-21. - Will Warren
Sunday, January 18
A Game
#78 Arizona State at #8 Houston (-16), 5 PM ET, ESPN.
On one hand, everyone and their mother correctly expects this to be a demolition of the highest order. Arizona State emptied the tank in what's probably Bobby Hurley's final game at McKale, suffered a fairly narrow loss, and their reward will be playing a Houston team that beat them by 15 last year despite ASU going for 1.48 points per shot. The odds are indeed slim that this, which is the best of a really weak day for men's college basketball, will be fun whatsoever.
But! There are some trends to watch for as it pertains to Mr. Hurley. Over the last five years, Arizona State has won four times as a 10+ point underdog, is above 50% at covering the spread, and has been strangely good at scoring a lot of points in these games while also giving up a ton. In road games as a 10+ point underdog since 2021, Arizona State has averaged 71.7 points per game. It would be helpful if they did not average giving up 84 in these games, but against top-75 defenses this year, the Sun Devils have held up fine, averaging 1.09 PPP in their seven top-75 battles.
Assuming they can't create in transition against a Houston defense that remains as elite as it gets at eliminating transition possessions, ASU will do their usual of attempting to create open threes off the dribble while playing through the post. Moe Odum and Massamba Diop have both been excellent in these games, but the swing piece is 2-guard Anthony Johnson, who has an insane 31% Usage% against good defenses despite shooting 41% 2PT/27% 3PT against them. This is a roundabout way to say that I'm assuming Houston wins this by 15+ but Arizona State will make it fun. - Will Warren
B Game
#105 Wichita State at #74 South Florida (-6), 2 PM ET, ESPN2.
Two elite rebounding teams to go with two interior offenses that simply cannot convert a layup. I've been really frustrated with USF this year, who feels like they should be better than they are, and I wonder if Wichita is biding its time until they can spin the wheel on the coaching carousel. Either way, this has real importance to the AAC race. If either of these teams can win the defensive boards, they're going to win the game. Wichita in particular is very reliant on second-chance points, and if their pool for second-chance points is limited, it'll expose their very broken half-court offense that much further. God, the AAC is a struggle this year. - Will Warren
C Game
#77 Tulsa at #109 UAB (-1), 3 PM ET, ESPN+.
Well, it's for someone. This is directly competing against various NFL happenings, but in the interest of filling out our Weekend Watchlist, I did have to scrap and claw to find this third game.
Eric Konkol has yet to beat UAB and has yet to crack 70 points against them, which is alarming considering UAB's general disposition towards playing defense. They should absolutely get it done here in a back-and-forth game, but I do question if Tulsa is a legitimate 41% 3PT basketball team. They are now, and they currently rank first in America in 3PT shooting, but...well...I don't know. It helps that they're shooting 79% from the free throw line, but this roster collectively has shot 36% from deep over their careers. Will this continue to hold? If so, a UAB team that cannot stop giving up open threes could be in trouble. If not, a UAB team with fantastic two-way shot volume may motor away here and leave Konkol win-free in Birmingham once more. - Will Warren