Welcome to another edition of the Weekend Watchlist! Before you dive in, check out this great piece from Joey Dwyer on Winthrop's Logan Duncomb.
Joey Dwyer
We've also got yesterday's top performances and today's Watchability Index:
Saturday, January 10
A Games
#16 Tennessee at #13 Florida (-4), 12 PM ET, ESPN.
Do you like big-boy basketball? Do you like when two teams are deep in the frontcourt and a little less deep in the backcourt? Do you like when two teams take turns hitting each other with hammers for 2.5 hours, not two, because this is an SEC game and no SEC game ever finishes in two hours? Get ready for another Tennessee/Florida bar brawl, baby.
In terms of playing through the post in the frontcourt, Tennessee is only outpaced by LSU amongst SEC teams, and given LSU's level of competition/general outlook, you could probably compare Tennessee more to playing like a Michigan State or even a North Carolina. Tennessee's actual pure post-up efficiency isn't great, however, and most would agree they're at their best when the system operates around the efforts of Ja'Kobi Gillespie, whether as a shooter or a paint attacker.
Florida's in an intriguing spot where I think their frontcourt is likely better and they're so dominant on the boards that even Tennessee, a fantastic rebounding team, could struggle. And yet: Gillespie is the best guard by some distance on either roster. Against good competition, Florida ends up increasing their frontcourt usage to a fairly extreme degree, even more than Tennessee's, because both Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee have struggled to finish through contact. What this has led to is Florida taking one of the highest rates of pull-up jumpers in the country against high-end competition, usually Fland or Lee, because opponents crash down so hard on the posts that UF has few other options.
This game becomes pretty simple: do Fland and Lee hit these shots to force the frontcourt open, or do they not? 92 points against Georgia on Tuesday was reassuring despite the team shooting 24% from deep, but that was Georgia, a team with a middling defense that predictably got eaten alive on the boards. Tennessee is neither of these things. For what it's worth, UF is 2-5 this year when they go for 1.11 PPP or less, which is scary, because they went sub-1.11 PPP all of four times last year...twice of which were against Tennessee. - Will Warren
#21 Nebraska at #24 Indiana (-3), 12 PM ET, BTN.
Indiana automatically has a great chance of handing Nebraska their first loss of the season for two reasons: 1) they’re at home and 2) Mike Woodson isn’t the coach (he was absolutely bamboozled by this defensive scheme). Obviously 3PT variance is going to have an outsized role in any Nebraska game, as they own the 14th highest 3PTA rate in the country and allow the 7th highest, but it’s particularly pronounced with Indiana’s top 20 3PTA rate as well. Indiana shoots 12% better from 3 at home at a higher rate, and they have elite ball movement against hedge/two to the ball/post double defensive scheme, which is what Nebraska brings to the floor. Indiana is the opposite defensively, preferring to defend 1v1 in their drop coverage, and while Nebraska rarely runs offense out of ball screen or off the dribble (typically the “preferred” way to eat drop space), they’ve been very effective against drop 5 because of their hub/handoff offense through Rienk Mast and their elite spacing.
Indiana has run into issues against teams that can out-athlete them, but that’s not really Nebraska’s game, and the Huskers’ help heavy scheme could run into the same issues they did against Kansas State, an offense very similar to IU in that they spread the floor and move the ball well, and cut aggressively behind the help. Nebraska should be able to run their offense effectively (they’ve torched every drop coverage base they’ve seen, including Illinois on the road despite a poor shooting day), and they get a bit of a break in that IU is finishing up winter break and many of the fans were in Atlanta/hungover for an early Saturday tip after the late football game, but I’d be surprised if they left Bloomington still undefeated. - Jordan Majewski
#22 Arkansas at #38 Auburn (-1), 6 PM ET, ESPN.
If the Paul Rudd “Hey, look at us. Who would have thought?” meme were a game this week, it would be this one. The swapped trajectories of these two programs from a calendar year would give a fighter jet pilot vertigo.
The Tigers are winless after the first pair of SEC games for the first time since they started 0-4 in the 2020-2021 season, surrendering a 16-point lead in the final 13 minutes of their home game against Texas A&M, which followed an overtime heartbreaker against Georgia on the road. To say the Tigers’ backs are against the wall is an understatement, and the disappointment of two late losses is the latest bump of a season that now sees Auburn 9-6 on the season and notably 2-6 in Quad 1 and 2 games.
Since Thanksgiving Day, Arkansas freshman guard Darius Acuff has unlocked his game at the college level, averaging 22 points and 7.4 assists per game. In league play, he’s averaging 27.5 points and 6.5 assists.
John Calipari’s Arkansas team has been one of the steadiest teams in the country, covering the spread at the 16th highest rate in Division I. Arkansas has been terrific on the offensive end to start out conference play, holding an effective field goal percentage of 54.2% and an offensive rebound rate of 38.8%.
This game is going to come down to how this Tigers team and their raucous home crowd handle the adversity of the last week and if their two lead guys, Keshawn Hall and Tahaad Pettiford, can outmatch Acuff and his supporting cast of frontcourt pieces. As great as Arkansas’ offense has been, Auburn’s has been pretty damn good as well. They lead the conference in 2-point shooting percentage and offensive rebounding rate. Expect another game going down to the wire in the Jungle. - Tuck Clarry
#26 Utah State (-2) at #63 Boise State, 9 PM ET, CBSSN.
It’s rare in the Mountain West for a first-place team to ultimately be racing against itself for the season. But Utah State is in the rare air that hasn’t been visited since the peak San Diego State run in terms of the gap between first place and second place.
Utah State, on the season, has shown to be the best team in the conference on both ends of the court, and early conference play doesn’t suggest that that’s about to change. They’re first in the league in effective field goal percentage and offensive rebounding rate, while first in turnover rate and second in opponent field goal percentage on the defensive end.
But you can’t look ahead in the Mountain West, historically a tough league for road teams. The Aggies come into Boise to face a Broncos team with their conference season derailed by a triple-overtime loss at San Diego State that was compounded by a blowout on Wednesday when they hosted Grand Canyon.
Boise State poses some defensive impediments that could bring this game closer than the two records suggest. They’re a team able to switch and play sound defense when they’re right, shutting off easy looks on the perimeter. The Broncos are also second in the country in limiting opponent offensive rebounds. The Aggies are not only a proven offensive rebounding machine, but they also rank in the 93rd percentile in second-chance points.
Can desperation be enough to will a team to have a puncher’s chance against one of the best shooting teams in the country? The tandem of Mason Falslev and MJ Collins is just a level of firepower that the rest of the league has been unable to match so far. The duo is averaging 35 points on 56% shooting from the field and 43.4% from deep. - Tuck Clarry
B Games
#45 VCU (-1) at #84 George Mason, 12 PM ET, ESPNU.
This is an enormous battle near the top of the A10. VCU is coming off a frustrating home loss to 14-1 SLU, and now the Rams travel to 15-1 George Mason with hopes of not falling too far down the standings. Mason, meanwhile, hopes to build a stealth at-large case based on sheer win volume after playing a cupcake-filled non-conference slate.
The transition-heavy Rams could not put the pumpkin in the basket on Wednesday, going 18-of-63 (28.6%) from the floor to post a pitiful 0.81 points per possession. The only saving grace was a second half parade to the free throw line, but the Rams will not have such an edge on Saturday.
For one, they are on the road. And more importantly, GMU leads the entire country in free throw attempt differential, per CBB Analytics. The Patriots have taken 173 more freebies than their opponents, combining a physical, attacking offense with a disciplined shell on defense. That well-schooled defensive unit should also force VCU to play in the half court, squeezing the game into a low-possession battle.
The Rams will need a big game from Terrence Hill, a stick-of-dynamite scorer off the bench. Mason forces a bevy of jumpers (311th in defensive 3PA rate), so Hill – and teammates Jadrian Tracey, Ahmad Nowell and Nyk Lewis – have to loosen up the Patriots’ perimeter.
On the other end, GMU could live at the charity stripe, ranking 3rd nationally in free throw rate. They do not turn it over, and the constant bombardment of the bucket allows for efficient scoring nights even without much perimeter shooting beyond Kory Mincy and Jahari Long. VCU will be angry off a loss, but this could be a frustrating matchup for the Rams. - Jim Root
#41 LSU at #5 Vanderbilt (-13), 1 PM ET, SEC Network.
Without star point guard Dedan Thomas, LSU has started 0-2 in SEC play, and are now 1-3 against KenPom Top 100 teams, with the one win coming against SMU via a masterful 16-point, 12-assist double-double from Thomas. He "has a ways to go" when it comes to returning, per head coach Matt McMahon.
With that in mind, the Tigers' best shot at a win here is a flat Vanderbilt performance in a "trap game" spot following a giant win over Alabama. It's at least possible - they played a game against Central Arkansas in the middle of five Top 100 opponents, and only won that game by 11. The Commodores also have a gargantuan +10.5% 3-point gulf that is an even larger +16% through two SEC games.
However, LSU has turned it over at a 22% clip in both games without Thomas, and Vanderbilt is 17th-nationally in steal rate. That should help unlock Vanderbilt's deadly transition attack that is 21st in the country in points per game at 21.2.
If Vanderbilt is truly a top five team in the sport, this is a game they should absolutely dominate. KenPom has them as six-point favorites or higher in seven of their next eight games, so they'll need to gain some practice being the "hunted" rather than the hunters that they've been for the better part of a decade. - Matthew Winick
#11 Houston (-2) at #34 Baylor, 1 PM ET, Peacock.
My primary concern with Houston in any given game against credible competition this season is that they’re so reliant on tough shot creation and making from Kingston Flemings, and they lack that J’Wan Roberts presence in the post that can really grind out possessions in the halfcourt. The Cougars are still a dominant force on the offensive glass, and the ball screen blitzing and Monster post denials are still very much the Houston Way, but that 1st percentile “high quality shot” rating and 1st percentile rim rate can mean a bogged down offense when Flemings isn’t thermonuclear. Baylor will try to hedge the ball out of Flemings’ hands and flatten out his unbelievable initial downhill burst, but they’ve also graded out as just a 4th percentile ball screen defense in terms of efficiency rating, and 11th percentile off the dribble, where Houston also generates a high rate of offense. Baylor’s bigs, including the controversial James Nnaji, are slow to recover in their hedging scheme, and they’ve been torched on the roll as well (11th percentile grade out in that regard)- just a poor PNR defense all around. Scott Drew will often revert to the infamous 1-1-3/1-3-1 zone when his PNR coverage is being torched, but Houston averaged 1.3 PPP in 24 zone offense possessions against Baylor last season.
Baylor just saw a similarish defensive scheme from Iowa State Wednesday night in Waco, and were absolutely dreadful, scoring .86 PPP in what was by far their least efficient offensive game of the season.
Baylor did grab offensive rebounds at a 43% rate, which is repeatable against the Cougars, but for an offense that relies heavily on drive and kick creation (although this can get foul happy JoJo Tugler in trouble, which alters Houston’s defensive gameplan) and transition, the schematics here aren’t ideal for the Bears. As noted, Houston’s offense is very capable of a clunker, similar to how they struggled at Cincy in their first true road game of the season, but the Bearcats matched up well defensively, whereas Baylor is the opposite as a more offense forward team with defensive issues. My inclination is that this is another slow bleedout for the Bears, similar to the Iowa State game in Waco. - Jordan Majewski
#31 SMU at #7 Duke (-10), 2 PM ET, ESPN.
SMU, are you a man or a mouse? The 'Stangs lost by four at Clemson midweek and were lucky it wasn't much worse. I still think it's a great sign that they beat UNC at home as easily as they did, but by the same token, you can't shoot 52% from deep every time out. Against top-50 teams since Andy Enfield took the job, SMU is 2-9, plays like the 92nd-best team in the nation, and has yet to beat one of these teams outside of Texas. Against everyone else: 34-7 and shooting 39% from three.
I bring this up because this Duke team has some wobble to it that I didn't anticipate. The Blue Devils are still an incredible +18% from 2. Against top-200 competition only, this is +9.2%, the second-best in the ACC (UNC) and only outpaced nationally by Michigan, Vandy, Purdue, and UConn. They still never foul. But: unlike last year, this team does not assert themselves in the turnover or rebounding departments, with a combined shot volume of +4.5 per 100 possessions. Considering last year's team was +8.1 and +14.2% 2PT, this is a pretty big dropoff.
So: here is a Duke team that walls off the rim, forces a lot of jumpers, runners, and hook shots, and remain wide-open to variance. They don't appear to have the sixth gear that last year's team had, only flashing the fifth gear against Louisville and Kansas. Is SMU ready to take advantage, or will they remain the Paper Mustangs of Dallas? - Will Warren
#23 St. John's at #40 Creighton (-1), 2 PM ET, FS1.
I appreciate Creighton for making every game preview of theirs very simple: do they hit shots? Well, if they do, they're probably gonna win. If they don't, they're probably gonna lose. This is another Creighton Big East game where the Jays will likely get pulverized in the shot volume department by a bigger and more physical opponent, but also another Creighton Big East game where the Jays will have the math advantage on the shot chart and will work to dictate the game on their terms.
In a total role reversal from last year, the Johnnies barely attempt mid-range jumpers at all, settling for around 2-3 in the average game compared to 10+ last year. That makes this a really odd game for them, because Creighton split last year's pair of regular season games and covered the spread in both, but that SJU team is completely different than this one.
Still, St. John's wants this game to be played entirely in transition, while Creighton wants a half-court game. In the five McDermott/Pitino battles so far, the Johnnies have quietly had the upper hand in dictating the game's pace, with only one game sinking to Creighton's preferred pace of 65 possessions or fewer. The Jays this year have started to shoot better behind the work of Austin Swartz, Josh Dix, Blake Harper, etc., but if you don't hit these shots here, St. John's is probably gonna rebound them. I guess my fear here is that Creighton has one very defined path, while St. John's has a few murkier ones. Do you go with volume or clarity? - Will Warren
#3 Arizona (-10) at #49 TCU, 4 PM ET, ESPN.
Speed and athleticism vs elite size and athleticism. TCU's frontcourt is absurdly overmatched and outsized (a less effective Arizona frontcourt scored 42 points at the rim in this matchup last year), but that was the case against Florida as well, with the Frogs mitigating that size disadvantage by swarming nearly every Gator frontcourt touch on the catch- UF's frontcourt turned the ball over 14 times in that game. TCU did the same to Michigan's vastly superior frontcourt, which has to date been one of the most effective strategies against the other juggernaut in college basketball at the moment.
Jaden Bradley has handled hard hedge and ball pressure heavy schemes extremely well all season, so Arizona is still going to generate open looks, plus the Wildcats have scored 1.2 PPP out of post doubles (Peat has struggled in that regard, but not Krivas), and TCU's doubles the post at a 99th percentile rate. Additionally, TCU allows just a 2nd percentile transition rate, always an important box to check against Arizona's offense.
Offensively, TCU has not fared well efficiency wise against base drop, as they lack high level ball screen/dribble creators, and they're going to struggle in the halfcourt against Arizona's size.
While this is likely as effective as any defensive scheme can/will be against the Arizona offense, the Wildcats still have elite ball movement and shooting (at a low rate, since they tend to dominate the rim), and can ultimately overwhelm the Frogs with their size. - Jordan Majewski
#35 Clemson (-1) at #59 Notre Dame, 6 PM ET, ESPN2.
This is Notre Dame's first game since the Ref-ckoning at California last Friday, which makes me extremely curious as to how they'll react. Will Notre Dame get more calls or fewer? Most would assume the latter, but those who know the power of a well-used outburst could just as easily guess Notre Dame gets 10+ more free throw attempts than the visiting Tigers.
I thought I'd be done with Notre Dame once Markus Burton went out for the year, but thanks to a truly powerful defensive effort, I may temporarily be back in. Against teams Quad 3 or higher, Notre Dame has played like a top-50 team with a top-25 defense, with the numbers on that end very legitimate. They never force turnovers, but that lower line of engagement lends itself to elite defensive rebounding and forcing the eighth-deepest average shot proximity, per Haslametrics. Watch the rotation on this missed three, it's quite nice:
This is notable to me because, like SMU, I think Clemson may be an actual Paper Tiger. Under the same restrictions of removing Quad 4 games, Clemson scores 10 fewer points per 100 offensively even with schedule adjustments and plays much slower, half-court oriented offense. Their guards (Dillon Hunter and Jestin Porter) can't beat opposing guards 1-on-1 downhill as easily, which leads to a lot of kickouts and far more jumpers. The path here then becomes RJ Godfrey demolishing Notre Dame's interior single-handedly, which I'm not 100% sure of as a reliable strategy. ND's defensive style can induce serious shooting variance - see their surprise struggle with an atrocious Rutgers team because the Knights shot 11-27 from deep - but if not, they're in business. - Will Warren
#51 Texas at #14 Alabama (-12), 8 PM ET, ESPN.
Texas's offense has been adequate in their 0-2 SEC start, but their lumbering drop coverage has been absolutely blowtorched by a pair of elite ball screen scorers, allowing a combined 72 points to Josh Hubbard and Ja'Kobi Gillespie. Now two elite ball screen creators on one team await in Aden Holloway and a presumably cramp free Labaron Philon.
Texas was lucky to score the 1.06 PPP they posted at Tennessee (18 points on guarded catch and shoots), as the Vols' early help completely neutralized the advantages Dailyn Swain usually creates with his size when Miller puts him in ball screen actions. But that won't necessarily be the case against Bama's own drop coverage, and the Tide don't really have a strong answer for him defensively outside of Amari Allen's length. Texas is a strong rim finishing offense, but it sounds like the Tide could have their best rim protector in Aiden Sherrell back after he warmed up ahead of the Vandy game (although floor space Latrell Wrightsell found himself with a doubtful tag on the SEC availability report). All in all, another difficult road matchup for the embattled Longhorn ball screen defense. - Jordan Majewski
C Games
#18 Kansas (-3) at #72 West Virginia, 12 PM ET, FOX.
Is everybody having fun with the Darryn Peterson experience? The freshman phenom proves every time he steps on the floor that he’s one of the most gifted scorers in the country while also forcing viewers to scan the court during deadballs to see if he’s actually out there.
Peterson lights up the box score whether he’s playing 20 minutes or 30. Every possession he proves that he belongs at or near the top of the NBA draft, averaging 22.5 points per game on 50% shooting from the field and 43% from three on high volume. However, the shooting guard has played just six games this season, which included a 32-point performance in Kansas’ overtime win over TCU. Peterson didn't play a second in overtime due to cramping.
Kansas is just a completely different team when Peterson is off the floor. They’re a hard-nosed, defense-first unit that will happily try to win in a possession battle decided by the glass. That’s had mixed results this season and in league play, losing to UCF on the road with Peterson on a minutes restriction. The Big 12 is just too good to win night-in-night-out via physicality.
West Virginia hosts Bill Self’s team in what could be yet another defensive battle. The Mountaineers are 5th in the country in opponent 2-point percentage, pushing teams to settle for perimeter looks. The rest of the Jayhawks are shooting 32% from three-point range in conference play, and their 36% three-point attempt rate as a field goal attempts ratio without Peterson would put them around 255th in the country.
Considering Kansas’ lackluster rebounding rates and West Virginia’s hot shooting to start out league play, this could be another game where eyes are looking down Kansas’ bench as the Jayhawks fight for a win with their best player unavailable.
#42 Wisconsin at #1 Michigan (-19), 1 PM ET, CBS.
Let’s start with this little split: filtering Bart Torvik for home games only, Michigan is 7-0 with a +44.7 efficiency margin – the best in the country by roughly 10 points. Flip that filter to away/neutral games, and Wisconsin is 1-4 with a +4.8 efficiency margin, good for 116th in the country. The Badgers have been awful outside of the Kohl Center, and now they have to take on the country’s biggest juggernaut.
Oh yeah, and Michigan might be a little angry. The Wolverines barely survived a scare at Penn State this week, despite the Nittany Lions missing starting point guard Kayden Mingo. After a month and a half of nearly perfect basketball, Dusty May finally had a reason to light up his team in practice this week. Have fun, Wisconsin!!!
The obvious talking point with the Wolverines is their rim dominance on both ends. The Wolverines’ immense frontcourt and elite physicality grind most opponents into dust, and though Wisconsin has big bodies, but outside of Nolan Winter, they are young and/or finesse-based.
The Badgers’ hopes for hanging around here center around transition defense and making 3s. Greg Gard’s teams typically do a solid job of preventing run-outs, but they have played much faster this season. If they do not get behind the ball against Michigan’s turbo steamroller, they are dead on arrival. They also need to knock down shots. The Badgers rank 17th nationally in 3PA rate, but they are sub-200 in 3P%. Cold shooting = dead on arrival again. - Jim Root
#28 Georgia (-3) at #69 South Carolina, 2 PM ET, ESPN2.
In Saturday's greatest clash of styles, you have South Carolina and their 2nd-percentile, 9.4% transition rate, against Georgia's 97th-percentile 24.1% transition rate. In other words, Georgia has made 150 baskets in transition... and South Carolina has attempted just 76. These teams are practically playing different sports out there.
Of course, another piece of the puzzle is actually preventing transition. South Carolina just played 85th-percentile transition squad Vanderbilt and held them to a remarkable two transition baskets all game, only allowing the pesky Commodores to pick up two steals. If they can do that against a Bulldogs team that thrives off live-ball turnovers, they will likely win this game.
Inevitably, this battle of tempo will decide the winner here. Georgia hasn't played a single contest slower than the 72 possessions KenPom projects, and their two slowest games, 73 possessions against Xavier and 71 possessions in regulation against Clemson, were two of their least efficient performances of the year. On the flipside, 72 possessions would be South Carolina's fastest game against a Top-200 opponent by two whole possessions.
When a Lamont Paris South Carolina team plays a game over 72 possessions in SEC play, they're 0-2 with two 20-point losses. They do not have the talent or the style to compete if they are coughing up the ball to the uber-athletic Bulldogs. But the Gamecocks can absolutely frustrate Georgia as they search for transition opportunities, which would hand the Bulldogs their second straight defeat. - Matthew Winick
#76 Stanford at #17 Virginia (-12), 2:15 PM ET, The CW.
This could be a tough turnaround for Stanford in its second game on the east coast. The Cardinal won in dramatic fashion at Virginia Tech on Wednesday, with all-world freshman PG Ebuka Okorie drilling a ballsy dagger with under three seconds left to escape with a one-point win.
The Cardinal have built a surprisingly compelling at-large case so far on the strength of Okorie’s brilliance and a solid nightly shot volume advantage. They rank 28th nationally in field goal attempt differential, per CBB Analytics, taking 73 more shots than their opponents through 16 games. Turnover and rebounding margins are consistently in their favor.
Competing on the defensive glass will be critical against UVA’s onslaught on the boards. The Hoos rank 5th nationally in offensive rebound rate, with Thijs De Ridder, Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyenso battering opposing frontlines. Grunloh and Onyenso’s shot blocking dominance has also made the rim a no-fly zone (6th nationally in 2P% defense, 4th in block rate). The whistle will be huge here: Okorie and Chisom Okpara will try to get Virginia’s bigs in foul trouble early.
Virginia, meanwhile, has looked outstanding in two games after a crushing triple-OT loss at rival Virginia Tech. They whipped NC State in Raleigh and then blew out Cal on Wednesday. Missing flamethrowing gunner Jacari White limits their spurtability somewhat, but this team is still flush with shooters, and freshman PG Chance Mallory has been terrific off the bench as a table-setter.
Ryan Odom and Kyle Smith faced off back on Christmas in 2022, with Odom’s USU team beating Smith’s Wazzu Cougars in the third-place game in the Diamond Head Classic (RIP). The 3P splits in that game were absurd (VCU 11/17, Wazzu 2/17), though, so there’s not much to take from it. - Jim Root
#88 South Florida at #73 Tulsa (-5), 3 PM ET, ESPN+.
After being far more aggressive in their ball screen coverage in OOC play, South Florida has reverted back to full Nate Oatsian levels of drop coverage as AAC play has commenced, allowing the lowest 3PTA rate in the league through 2 games. This is notable because Tulsa is a pure drive and kick offense (99th percentile efficiency rating per hoop-explorer) with an 87th percentile catch and shoot rate and 84th percentile rim rate. In USF’s two AAC games to date, they’ve allowed their two lowest catch and shoot attempts of the season (which included a 2OT game). Tulsa was just limited to their lowest catch and shoot rate of the season against North Texas, which resulted in their second least efficient offensive game of the season. That said, this isn’t exactly peaches and cream for USF’s rim and 3 offense either. Tulsa denies transition extremely effectively, and they allow uncontested catch and shoots at just a 3rd percentile rate. Tulsa has also had nearly a week of prep, while USF has played two knock down drag out fights in that span (including that 2OT game vs UAB). USF’s offense has been incredible in road games (top 20 road efficiency), but their defense has been shredded (239th). Tulsa meanwhile has been the 7th most efficient home offense in the country, thanks mostly to 45% 3PT shooting. - Jordan Majewski
#55 Oklahoma at #43 Texas A&M (-5), 3:30 PM ET, SEC Network.
My esteemed colleagues left me to write this one at 7:09 AM, as they know I love my SEC basketball slop. Boy, is this slop. Oklahoma is a bad basketball team, as with all Quad 4 games removed, I have them ranked 84th in the nation. 84th! At KenPom, do you know who's ranked 84th? Why, it's George Mason, and I would happily send Oklahoma packing from the SEC right now if it meant I got George Mason in return.
I don't think Texas A&M is quite at the level of their KenPom ranking either, but the Ags at least have an identity, which is Baby Bucky's Bible Bonkers Ball. Against Oklahoma's drop coverage, which may as well be in the parking lot, Texas A&M will have ample opportunities to hit pull-up jumpers...which they've had almost no practice in taking this season. A&M is exceptional in transition but kind of 'eh' in half-court unless Ruben Dominguez and/or Pop Isaacs are running wild off of dribble handoffs. If they're able to produce their usual cavalcade of kickout threes against an OU defense that's above-average at eliminating those, this could be a demolition. If not...well, let's not go there. I don't plan on taking this Oklahoma team seriously until I'm forced to. - Will Warren
#82 California at #61 Virginia Tech (-5), 4 PM ET, ACC Network.
The KenPom numbers don't imply as such, but based on resumes to date, this is...possibly a First Four Eliminator Game? Both Cal and VT are above water in Wins Above Bubble by a hair, and either would fall below it with a loss. I don't love what I see from Cal away from home, as Torvik has them 15th of 18 ACC teams in Away From Home performances, but that's based on just three games. Is it troublesome to make it this far with just three non-home games? Yes, but we'll worry about that later.
More intriguing to me are the superhuman home splits Tech is running from a 3PT% perspective. They're +9.2% in 3PT% at home, and opponents are shooting 27.5% despite VT's 3PT% SOS in these games being 33.1%, per Hoop-Explorer. Tech is great at shutting down any sort of transition play and forcing a half-court game defensively, but while they seem to play 1-on-1 on drives to the rim away from home, they bizarrely overcommit to drives at home and allow almost twice as many kickout threes from the paint.
Against a Cal team that produces kickout threes anywhere they play, I could see this being a problem. The Bears are shooting 37% from deep this year, with all of John Camden, Chris Bell, and Dai Dai Ames shooting either at or above historical rates. Am I sure they'll shoot this well the entire season? Not really; I would've guessed they'd land around 34-35% in preseason. But they'll have a lot of opportunities in this game, and opportunities could be enough to produce a surprise road win in a year where Cal's barely touched the road at all. - Will Warren
#62 Providence (-1) at #106 Xavier, 4 PM ET, FS1.
I only feel comfortable with one prediction for this game, and it's that it will be pretty fun to watch. This Providence team is addicted to really fun games, and to their benefit, they've legitimately been good for a month now. Since Feast Week ended, Providence has played like a top-50 team with a borderline top-10 offense, shooting the cover off of the ball and nearly pulling off an amazing upset of UConn days after an amazing upset of St. John's. Will they shoot 41% from 3 forever, as they have during these last six weeks? No, but opponents won't shoot 40% from deep, either.
I bring this up because, during that same stretch, Xavier has been the worst team in the Big East, which is a serious accomplishment when sharing a league with Marquette and Georgetown. The Musketeers are terrible at rim protection and have a heck of a penchant for giving up passes to the dunker spot, which interests me for a Providence offense that can really hammer both. But! The Providence defense is such that a Xavier team who can actually attack pretty well through the post should have success against a PC team with little to work with at center once Oswin Erhunmwunse picks up his required fourth foul. - Will Warren
#154 Montana State (-1) at #206 Idaho, 5 PM ET, ESPN+.
Montana State has been one a heck of a run in the Big Sky, winning three of the last four auto-bids, and coming two wins short last season. However, this year is the first time they've began conference play 3-0.
The Bobcats are led by a pair of gifted jumbo forward with completely different paths. Senior forward Patrick McMahon has grown from rarely used freshman, to ultra-dependable fifth-year senior in his time in Bozeman. While Christian King is a former 3-star prospect who played real minutes at Washington last season and has been on fire to kick off league play. Add in that starting point guard Davian Brown is the brother of former elite Bobcats floor general Darius Brown, and there is so much to root for here.
The thing with Montana State is they are not good passers. They are third-last nationally in assist rate, relying heavily on isolation scoring and individual matchups. But the Big Sky is dead-last amongst conferences in steal rate, so I suppose they're in the right league!
On paper, Idaho is a serious threat here, but projected starter Kristian Gonzalez has been out of the lineup since an awesome season debut, and defensive ace Biko Johnson left their last game with injury. They'll be banking on stud freshman Jackson Rasmussen to content with the forward duo of McMahon and King.
Should Montana State roll here, it might be time to start considering them as a possible March Madness team in a couple months time. - Matthew Winick
#66 Wake Forest at #27 North Carolina (-9), 6 PM ET, ACC Network.
UNC has had a week off to recover from getting vaporized by SMU’s PNR offense, where the Ponies scored a season high 26 points out of ball screen against the Heels’ drop coverage, 1.8 (!) in drive and kick offense on 14-27 from 3, and 1.4 PPP off the dribble. While Nate Calmese has been playing his best offense of the year the last 2 games, Wake isn’t nearly as potent as SMU’s multiple ball screen and dribble creators, and their one true road game at NC State was an absolute offensive trainwreck for the Deacs. Additionally, UNC has been strong in transition denial (until the SMU game), and Wake has struggled to score consistently in the halfcourt against P5 defenses.
I do worry some about UNC’s lack of shooting against an aggressive ball screen hedge and blitz like Wake, and the Heels really struggled with Sparty’s hedge earlier in the season (although they didn’t have Seth Trimble to help navigate that). Additionally, Wake doesn’t have the frontcourt that Sparty has, and the Deacs have been unable to deter the rim against high level frontcourts, which is the entire point of their hedge. Miami just crushed Wake in the paint, a team with similar 2 big roster construction to the Heels in that they don’t have great spacing and shooting against a defense that hedges and helps so consistently on the dribble and ball screen. The Canes also smashed on the offensive glass, which the Heels could do here as well. Ultimately, Wake allowing 1.2 PPP to a Miami offense at home that SHOULD have struggled against this defensive scheme (and without an outlier shooting performance, in fact they were 4-22 from 3) was very telling to me. - Jordan Majewski
#96 Northern Iowa at #119 Bradley (-1), 6 PM ET, ESPNU.
As of now, Murray State is the last undefeated team standing in the MVC at 6-0, with all of UNI/Bradley/Illinois State/Belmont either 4-1 or 4-2. This is meaningful stuff, as the top four in the MVC all get double byes in Arch Madness, because exactly once in the last 25 years has a team south of the 4 seed in St. Louis won the conference tournament.
Bradley has won five of the last seven in this series, with their wins all having the same pattern: getting to 68 or more. If Bradley can do that and become the second team after Belmont to crack 67+ points on Northern Iowa in regulation this season, they're going to win. If not, they will lose. Simple science. In terms of actual analysis, against a very similar UNI roster last year, the Braves exploited UNI's P&R coverage pretty well with pick-and-pops. They can't do that nearly as well this season. How well they replace those actions, and how well they operate in P&R, could tell you the story of this game. - Will Warren
#20 Texas Tech (-5) at #78 Colorado, 7 PM ET, CBSSN.
After a tough loss to Houston on the road, the Red Raiders go take on a Colorado team that is 2-0. The Buffalo have shown a competent offense in a league full of teams that lean into defensive slugfests instead of relying on shot-making. The Buffalo are shooting nearly 37% from three-point this season and 55.4% inside the arc.
Texas Tech will welcome the higher pace of play after the half-court game that Houston forced them to play. Lead guard Christian Anderson will look to get back on track after going 3 for 11 against the Cougars. Colorado provides a solid opportunity for him to do so and demonstrate his ability to create shots. Colorado offers little resistance at the point of attack, unable to force turnovers and allowing nearly 55% of opponents’ made shots to come unassisted.
Grant McCasland’s team is continuing to develop secondary weapons to surround Anderson and Preseason All-American JT Toppin. Freshman guard Jaylen Petty led the team in points against Houston, scoring 20 with 5 for 9 shooting from the perimeter. Petty and senior transfer guard Donovan Atwell live off of catch-and-shoot opportunities created from Anderson’s gravity as a scorer.
Colorado struggles to stop teams once they get in the paint, giving up over 33 points in the paint and 49% on paint jumpers. It’s a stack of defensive weaknesses opposing the Red Raiders’ strengths that could make this one less competitive than the analytics suggest. - Tuck Clarry
#123 UC Irvine at #95 Hawaii (-6), 11:59 PM ET, ESPN+.
Now THIS is a defensive battle. A monstrosity, if you will. Torvik's projected score for this game is 69-63, Hawaii, which feels incredibly generous for two teams with top-40 defenses and sub-200 offenses. My personal advice would to simply hope that either of these teams touches 60 points, and perhaps even 50, because it will be a brawl of brawls out on the island at midnight.
That being said! These teams can score, occasionally. Both have good frontcourts to go with shaky backcourts, and I'd imagine both will attack through their posts (Isaac Johnson for UCI, Kyle Evans for Hawaii) until that's stopped. From there, it's about which hot-and-cold ball handler strikes gold at 7 PM local time. Will it be Derin Saran creating through the P&R for UCI, or is it Dre Bullock attacking downhill for Hawaii? I look forward to finding out the answer Sunday morning. - Will Warren
Sunday, January 11
The A+ Game of the Weekend
#9 Illinois (-1) at #19 Iowa, 12 PM ET, FOX.
Illinois has absolutely no qualms grinding possessions in the halfcourt, as they've produced just an 8th percentile transition rate and a 95th percentile halfcourt offense efficiency rating (per Synergy data). Illinois is really going to spread out and stress test Iowa's PNR coverage, and then they're going to pick on certain iso matchups with Wagler and Stojakovic. Keeping the Illini off the offensive glass is likely a challenge for the Hawkeyes as well.
Iowa can probably generate offense efficiently here with Stirtz vs the Illini drop coverage, but he will have Boswell hounding him all game. Iowa loves to generate offense via cuts and rollers (98th and 99th percentile rate, respectively), playing off the help Stirtz so often requires, but the Illini keep that low man tethered, and allow just a 6th percentile cut rate. Where Illinois has tended to struggle is when the Ivisics and Mirkovic have to get involved in off-ball screening actions and secondary actions, but that's not how McCollum's offense operates, utilizing off-ball screens at just a 15th percentile rate.
Iowa's home/road splits are stark
so it's difficult to say with any certainty that we don't see a McCollum special at CHA, but I think the schematics favor the Illini. - Jordan Majewski
A Game
#36 Ohio State at #48 Washington (-1), 6 PM ET, Peacock.
For your undercard, this is an odd one to pick. I'm not sold that Ohio State is making the 2026 NCAA Tournament - Torvik gives them ~43% odds at the time of writing - and I definitely don't think Washington (9%) is making it, either. So: why care about a game with two future NIT opt-outs playing on a streaming service that not everyone has or wants?
For one, this does have some Anxiety Bowl aspects to it. A win here would temporarily restore order to an Ohio State season quickly spinning out of control thanks to an inability to win big games at home, while Washington pulling this off gives them something to hang their hat on before a brutal three-game stretch of Michigan/Michigan State/Nebraska. As such, both teams need this, want it badly, and are likely going to scrap and claw for every little point they can find.
Against top-200 competition - i.e., Quad 3 and north - they're juuuuuust about the same team. Ohio State rates out as 57th-strongest; Washington, 65th. Neither has a top-60 unit, but neither falls below 82nd on either side of the ball. We have a term for this in the biz:
Washington should win the boards, but OSU will win the turnover battle, so it comes down to which one of two items wins out: Ohio State's ability to simply make a bunch of tough shots with Bruce Thornton and/or Devin Royal versus Washington making this a run-and-gun game with a ton of transition attempts off of OSU missed shots. Yes, this is your best game of Sunday, because Battles of Mid are often unusually entertaining. - Will Warren
B Game
#67 Cincinnati at #44 UCF (-6), 5 PM ET, ESPN2.
Is anyone going to watch this game? 49ers/Eagles begins at 4:30, and...okay, actually, you may have to watch this game, because I can't stand watching Late Stage Eagles right now. Those guys are rough.
The KenPom gap here suggests a closer game, but the Vibes Gap suggests a UCF demolition. Wes Miller is taking the Bill Simmons "Nobody Believes in Us!" strategy to a new realm that I haven't seen often in college basketball:
He’s gone delirious… pic.twitter.com/uCoranP9R2
— Will Hughes (@Will_In_Cincy) January 7, 2026
UCF, meanwhile, does not believe it's Us Against the Whole World, as far as I know. They've just...won games. I'm not a firm believer yet, but wins over Kansas and Texas A&M will age well, and 12-2 is 12-2. They're currently 21st (!) in Wins Above Bubble, which means that their ranking this week was deserved, even though it was immediately blown with a road loss to a similarly flawed Oklahoma State team.
Cincy games under Miller have had two pretty obvious tells: can their routinely excellent defensive structure force opponents into bad twos, and will this be the rare night they elect to make threes? Per EvanMiya, Cincy is 25-2 (!) under Miller when opponents shoot 44% or worse from two and when Cincy makes 35% or more of their threes. Again, double bets like this are troublesome at best, but that's your path. The only problem: UCF has yet to finish south of 50% from two this year. Either Cincinnati delivers what would likely be their best defensive performance of the year, or the Vibes Gap tells the tale. - Will Warren
C Games
#79 Memphis at #102 FAU (-1), 1 PM ET, ESPN2.
Everyone, and I mean everyone, loves to see a depressing version of a game we all loved three years ago. At its core, this is an intriguing battle of Memphis Chaos versus FAU...Firmness? I don't know, I guess that I'm well aware of what FAU is (a perfectly fine fourth-place AAC team that doesn't do anything special beyond rebounding) and still have no idea what Memphis is or isn't on the average night.
For all the massive warts the Tigers have, they remain a strong defense, and their ability to pile up steals on the defensive end/hold opponents under 50% from two could be a problem for FAU. Under John Jakus, when the Owls have 11 or fewer turnovers and shoot 55% or better from two, they're 8-1. In all other games: 17-21. A parlay stat like that is hard to make happen, which is why it only happens about once out of every five FAU games, but it kinda has to happen here to feel well and truly safe about escaping the Memphis Monster at home. - Will Warren
#143 Wright State at #128 Oakland (-4), 3 PM ET, ESPN2.
The first meeting between these two in Dayton was never close, with Wright State scoring 1.5 PPP in zone offense, which isn't aberrational, as the Raiders have torched in zone offense all season (96th percentile efficiency rating). The Raiders actually lost PG Michael Cooper to an injury in that game, and he hasn't played since, but it hasn't mattered, as they've simply traded his offense for more of TJ Burch's defense.
Worth noting Oakland scored at a season low efficiency at the rim (.8 PPP) on 11/27 shooting. I wasn't a particular believer in Wright State's rim defense through OOC play, but they've been the second best 2PT% defense in the Horizon to date. I'm reluctant to think Kampe gets swept, and if Cooper remains out, it's an offense for defense trade - but the Raiders have clearly "figured out" the zone. - Jordan Majewski