The Watchlist Tune o' the Week:

Our first full week of conference play is upon us. "Football?" What's a football? Who knows. (PERSONAL NOTE: I was inspired to rank the 25 NFL seasons I've watched, 2001-2025, after declaring that this 2025 regular season was a top-three one of my lifetime. This sickness is available upon request.)

This is a very long Watchlist, but it's a really good week of hoop, to the point that there's TWO A+ Games of the Week to go along with a non-D1 game you need to know about and 50+ other games worth watching. Basketball: it's here to stay. Thank goodness.

  • A Games are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ Game every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
  • B Games are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
  • C Games are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through. I’ll give these a sentence at most.
  • We hope to never get to D or F Games this season. No need.

EDITOR'S NOTE! I was inspired by something I heard recently on Eye on College Basketball: every game, technically, is a Multi-Team Event. Why not call preseason tournaments Multi-Game Events instead when referencing them? Therefore, these will be referred to as MGEs in this space going forward.

All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. All lines for women's games are via Bart Torvik.

Monday, January 5

A Game

NCAAW: #20 Minnesota at #6 Michigan (-9), 6:30 PM ET, BTN. This is great hoop for a Monday night, particularly on a Monday night that I wish had a little more going on now that MNF has the week off. Michigan is Michigan even with laying an egg at Washington and remains a top-8 team in the sport, but Minnesota's resume belies what has been a top-20 team for the entire season, one that can run up a monstrous rebounding/turnover edge in each direction. Adjusted for competition, they're at a +14.7 rebounding margin per 100 and +11.6 in turnover margin.

I look at this kind of like I would look at it in the Tournament. This is strength-on-strength, elite defense versus elite defense, super-powered shot volume versus super-powered shot volume, questionable shooting versus questionable shooting. In those cases, you just go with the better version of the same thing, which would be Michigan. I'm tempted to boil this game down to a very simple thing: offensively, they're both great in transition but more haphazard in half-court. Who can control pace better likely determines your winner.

B Games

#22 Nebraska at #39 Ohio State (-1), 6:30 PM ET, FS1. These two teams had very exciting Fridays for very different reasons. Nebraska won the biggest home game in the basketball program's history, while Ohio State got down by 15 to Rutgers (!) and had to climb out of a deep hole to avoid what would've been a loss to a team only barely inside the NET's top-200.

I still think Nebraska's due a stinker at some point, and spot-wise it's very hard to follow-up pouring your soul out to beat Michigan State in a true coin-flip battle that required them to overcome losing the board battle, shooting fewer free throws, and going an insane 5-20 from two. Ohio State also has the advantage of not having played a decent opponent in over two weeks, so they should be somewhat more rested. You know I love my regression stats, so here's a fun one: against top-100 opponents, OSU is -7.7% from 3...and Nebraska +7.2%. How's that for a role reversal, Jake Diebler?

#41 USC at #15 Michigan State (-9), 8:30 PM ET, FS1. USC completes the Michigan duo by playing a State team that probably feels they could've and perhaps should've won at Nebraska on Friday. Tom Izzo off of a loss is nasty - 54-38-2 ATS over the last 10 seasons, 30-13-2 ATS post-COVID. As usual with USC, I fear a beatdown on the boards and an over-reliance on hitting tough midrange twos/getting fouled on them, but finding a way to turn this into a slow, half-court game would benefit them. Muss's own post-loss record is whatever: 47-42-1 ATS.

C Games

#137 Columbia at #167 Cornell (-1), 5 PM ET, ESPN+. Filed under "fast and fun." Both of these teams have giant flaws. Cornell's is simply everything about their defense, while Columbia is atrocious at two-way ball security. I won't be surprised if the shot volume cancels itself out here, so it then comes down to what's more reliable: Cornell somehow giving up a 42% hit rate from three against top-250 teams, or Columbia getting almost 48% of all shots at the rim despite not being very efficient once they get there.

#114 William & Mary (-3) at #175 Charleston, 7 PM ET, CBSSN. This is a major player in the CAA race, as both are off to a 2-0 start and Charleston has possibly found something, winning five in a row and turning Jlynn Counter (who wears #82, I have to note) into a star-like thing at point. Like the game above, shot volume should cancel itself out, so let's see what holds: William and Mary allowing 26.3% from deep, or Charleston shooting 29.6%?

#117 Stephen F. Austin at #66 McNeese (-8), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. These are the two best teams in the Southland. McNeese looks like McNeese - extreme two-way chaos - and SFA regrettably looks much calmer (and more sound) than the SFA of old. SFA's drop coverage against McNeese's "there are no bad shots" philosophy is going to be fun.

Tuesday, January 6

The First A+ Game of the Week

#9 Duke at #12 Louisville (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN. If two sledgehammers hit each other at the same time, what sound does it make? I don't know, but I did watch this the other day and it was pretty entertaining.

This is two sledgehammers going at it for two-plus hours. It's the KenPom Player of the Year leader in Cameron Boozer up against a top-three offense in Louisville. And, secretly, it's a Louisville team that's played just as well against quality competition (though without the same level of W-L) as Duke has.

Hear me out: against top-100 teams, Duke has a lower 2PT% delta than Louisville (+9.7% versus +10.5%), commits more turnovers, and gets fewer offensive rebounds. Their defense goes from 12th overall to 35th. Now, I do think Duke's defense is becoming underrated somewhat thanks to opponents running hot from three, but their drop coverage offers a potential poison pill in this game. If Duke goes under on screens, which they absolutely should not, Louisville may attempt 50 threes in this game and be fully right to doing so. If they crash too hard, though, this is a Louisville offense that can exploit hard-hedges well and flip the equation on you fast.

Then again, I think this Louisville defense might be capital-B Bad against good competition. They commit too many fouls, don't rebound well, and are currently 0-for-5 in holding top-50 teams below 1.05 PPP. Four of them have gone north of 1.15 PPP. Now, it's worth noting that last year's pair of Duke games finished at 67 and 64 possessions, but both teams involved play faster. If this finishes at 70 possessions as projected, that means Louisville's probably gonna allow Duke to crack at least 80 points. Louisville can get there, certainly, but at some point you need stops. Can they get them in the best home environment they'll have all year (non-Kentucky division)?

A Games

#20 Texas Tech at #11 Houston (-6), 9 PM ET, FS1. This is the Big 12's first Marquee Matchup of conference play, and one of something like 19 games between the top six teams. There are way too many good games this week, so I'm afraid this one will get slight glossing over and it shouldn't. What I'd note is that since McCasland got to Texas Tech, half of these games have been Houston blowouts and the other half coin-flips that truly could've gone either way. Based on the play of each post-MGEs, I lean a single-digit Houston win.

NCAAW: #23 Oregon at #18 USC (-4), 10 PM ET, BTN. This USC team is a little better than it has any right to be, but it's almost entirely thanks to a wrecking ball of a defense that has been unreal at eliminating shots all over the place despite not having tremendous height or physicality. Oregon can say the same; I love how hard they fight without the ball in their hands. Basically, this is first to 60.

B Games

#25 St. John's (-2) at #54 Butler, 7 PM ET, Peacock. There's the old adage about how if everyone's a (blank), then it must be you that's the (blank). I imagine St. John's feels this quite strongly after an offseason full of demanding everyone believe that point guards don't exist and that a roster that deleted its most notable feature (perimeter defense) would somehow be better than a 2 seed that won a ton of close games.

Anyway! We're going to see how real Spot Logic is here with two teams that need wins like they need air. St. John's is the headliner, but Butler got dressed down with ease by Villanova on Saturday and is now 10-5, 1-3 Big East after a promising start. The 'tell' of this game will be fairly simple: if St. John's gets to 51% from two. When they do under Pitino, they're 33-4; when Butler holds a team to 51% or lower under Thad Matta, they're 41-16. Interior play tells the tale.

#26 Georgia at #14 Florida (-7), 7 PM ET, SEC Network. Yes, ANOTHER Get Right Game against an Opponent of Questionable Quality. Of the two real surprises in the SEC I believe way more in Georgia as a potential top-30 team more than LSU, and them managing to pull out a win at home over Auburn despite giving up 23 (!) offensive rebounds and blowing what I thought was an unblowable four-point lead with a second to go.

But...well, I have a vested interest in Florida being good. Some indicators for me here are that Georgia's shock win over UF last year came thanks to a 56% shooting day from 3/82% from the line, neither of which were close to their season averages. Other than that, Florida's won every other game against Georgia in the Mike White Bowl, scoring 82+ in six of the seven games. I don't expect much different this time out.

#52 Texas at #16 Tennessee (-10), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Similar to the above. Tennessee had a weird one at Bud Walton on Saturday, drawing the turnover battle (14-14) and equaling out in offensive rebounds while outshooting Arkansas from two and holding the Hogs to seven assists on 25 made baskets. They lost by 11, which is what happens when you shoot 12-23 from the free throw line while the other team goes 29-33.

I'd look for a good day offensively by Tennessee here. Against top-100 offenses this year in six games, Texas has gotten utterly nuked: 1.245 PPP allowed, 54% 2PT/67% FG% at the rim, and nearly 28 free throw attempts given up per game. I don't think said opponents will shoot 41% from deep against them all year, but a Texas defense that's been bad against downhill rim attacks and any sort of frontcourt action seems like a bad matchup with Tennessee.

#36 UCLA at #45 Wisconsin (-2), 9 PM ET, Peacock. Wisconsin's defense is beginning to prove itself as a Get Right Game for a lot of teams. Against top-50 competition this year (adjusted for venue), we're looking at a Badger D that's allowed 119 points per 100 possessions and cannot force a turnover to save its life. UCLA's offense is astonishingly reliant on midrange twos against any defense with a pulse, though. Can Wisconsin win this one on pure math?

#51 San Diego State at #72 Nevada (-2), 11 PM ET, FS1. I mean, I guess San Diego State is playing some of the most watchable games in history? You have the Troy game from earlier this year, and now you have this.

Here's hoping this one at least comes close. Current Torvik odds make this a game for second place in the MWC behind Utah State, and it's a shame it sits all the way at 11 PM ET, which is probably a true start time of 11:10 or so.

C Games

NCAAW: #85 South Florida (-2.5) at #135 UAB, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Garden-variety good NCAAW game here between two AAC title hopefuls. I think UAB might get mauled on the boards, but UAB's offense can actually shoot it and I've been very unimpressed by USF's defense.

#65 Cincinnati at #70 West Virginia (-4), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. I thought this was an odd quote by Wes Miller on Saturday.

In a vacuum, sure, fine. But usually, you say this if you feel you're being disrespected by someone or something, not if you're 8-6 and have a 2% chance of making the NCAA Tournament in a year where your declared goal was to make the NCAA Tournament. Also, part of your brag was that you...lost the lead?

#1 Michigan (-23) at #122 Penn State, 7 PM ET, FS1. Sometimes, they televise murders in real time on state television.

#17 Iowa (-6) at #96 Minnesota, 8 PM ET, BTN. I hear you guys like chasing trends. Over their last six games, since their MGE in Palm Springs, Minnesota is 5-1 with a pair of Tier A wins at KenPom and has played like the 32nd-best team in the sport. Now, I don't think Minnesota will continue to allow teams a 27.1% hit rate from 3 or post a +9.6% 3PT delta, but even with that normalized, they'd still be around 46th or so since Chansey Willis went out with injury. Your time to Buy Low may be running out.

#43 UCF at #67 Oklahoma State (-1), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. UCF picking up another signature win over Kansas is really funny to me. Imagine if, in college football, Notre Dame had a yearly scheduled loss to Maryland or Kansas State. I still don't think they'll shoot 39% from 3 the entire year but they're entertaining and fun.

#63 George Washington at #79 Dayton (-3), 8 PM ET, CBSSN. My read of the Atlantic 10 race is pretty simple: Saint Louis and VCU, then everyone else. Either George Washington or Dayton could be the top everyone else team, and this is a crucial game in determining who gets the proverbial leg up.

#59 New Mexico at #81 Colorado State (-2), 9 PM ET, Mountain West Network. Colorado State's 3PT%-fueled run is screeching to a halt and the Rams are now 1-2 in MWC play, hosting a New Mexico team that might have one good offensive piece on the entire roster but keeps winning games. Backs are against the wall here.

#53 TCU at #18 Kansas (-9), 9 PM ET, ESPN. I feel really bad for Darryn Peterson. I'm not sure it's his fault he's got a hamstring ordeal that won't seem to go away, especially as (by all indications) he's worked extremely hard to get back to playing at full strength. Either way, classic Bill Self Spot here; post-COVID, they're 15-1 at home in Big 12 play immediately following a loss.

#47 Texas A&M at #34 Auburn (-6), 9 PM ET, SEC Network. This is the Anxiety Bowl of the week. Arguably the season? At Torvik, his forward-looking bracketology has this as a battle between two of the last eight teams in the field, which sounds more than realistic enough to me. There are no such things as MUST WINS in January but the loser (particularly if it's Auburn) will feel pretty bad.

Wednesday, January 7

The Other A+ Game of the Week

#40 Saint Louis at #42 VCU (-2), 7 PM ET, CBSSN. This is the Mid-Major Game of the Year. I've mentioned this elsewhere, that Saint Louis rates as a top-25 team in the nation when you remove games against sub-300 teams, but VCU also ranks as a top-50 group. SLU's interior defense is way better than it gets credit for. VCU's offense, for once, is easily its better unit. I'm a Building Truster, and I trust the Siegel Center. If SLU comes in here and wins this game in this spot, we better stop talking about 'if' and start talking about 'when' they're wearing home uniforms in the Round of 64.

SLU has been lethal against teams who have chosen to double the post this year thanks to elite shooting, but single-coverage has rarely been the solution, either. VCU is very much into single-coverage, which has been a horrific choice for them this year. If they can't slow down Robbie Avila both as a scorer and distributor, VCU's path slims greatly. If the Siegel Center wins out, it'll be thanks to VCU breaking SLU down in transition and, well, by simply making some threes. Ideally 12 or more.

A Games

NCAAW: #19 Texas Tech at #22 West Virginia (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. I'm really into this one, as it's kind of a role reversal. Texas Tech is a perfect 16-0 and is the team with the elite defense this year, almost feeling like they have six players on the court sometimes. West Virginia can be that at times, but has evolved from the Chaos Team they were a year ago into a rebounding juggernaut that produces excellent catch-and-shoot looks to go with their usual forced turnovers. I think this is going to be really fun and really jittery, which should play more into WVU's hands...but perhaps not!

#3 Iowa State (-7) at #33 Baylor, 8 PM ET, Peacock. It's going to take some getting used to, seeing key Big 12 action take place on Peacock. Baylor's debut of James Nnaji was kind of a dud, as Nnaji was mostly a non-factor in a road loss to TCU. I can't say I'm super surprised because I read this by Jon Fendler the same day the guy committed.

Nnaji is unlikely to end up meaning much at all to Baylor's season, which makes for an entertaining freakout and for an entertaining matchup here. While undefeated Iowa State is still owed serious shooting regression (42% from deep!), the overhelping nature of their defense could be exploited here against a Baylor offense that is nasty on the boards, generates a ton of open jumpers, and utilizes backdoor/perimeter cuts very well. Notably, Baylor is a hilarious 0-8 ATS against Otz since he got the ISU job, which either means they're long overdue for a win or that Iowa State's first loss will not be happening here.

#13 Alabama at #5 Vanderbilt (-6), 9 PM ET, ESPN2. Both of these super-fun teams passed their first SEC tests on Saturday. You heard about Alabama's, but I'd argue Vandy acquitted themselves fine in a weird low-event game with South Carolina that had all of 13 combined OREBs and 11 combined turnovers. It's unknown at the time of writing if they'll get back Duke Miles, and their minutes without both Miles and Frankie Collins (adjusted for luck) are kind of telling: a huge dropoff in turnovers forced, a major dropoff in kickout threes produced. But: I do believe this Alabama defense is capable of fixing anyone, and this will be a wild Memorial Gym environment.

B Games

NCAAW: #31 Ohio State at #38 Illinois (PK), 7 PM ET, BTN+. Exciting times here for both teams, one of whom has a good resume but meh metrics and one who has a meh resume but comparatively good metrics. Fun, strange fact: this will be Ohio State's fourth game of the year against a top-50 opponent, having gone 1-2 (with a two-point win) across the first two. The rest of the year, they draw 12.

#74 Belmont at #86 Northern Iowa (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Belmont's current ranking at KenPom would be their highest since Rick Byrd's final season of 2018-19, which should go to show you how big this is. Meanwhile, Northern Iowa has perhaps the very best mid-major defense in the sport, which is a serious accomplishment when teams like Hawaii/Boise State/New Mexico all exist. The goal number here for Belmont should be 70: get there and UNI's path, with a very wobbly offense, deflates.

NCAAW: #37 Oklahoma State at #10 TCU (-12), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. This TCU frontcourt is so dominant each way that Oklahoma State's top and possibly only path here is to simply outrun them in transition. That or hit 10+ threes.

#44 Creighton at #21 Villanova (-8), 7:30 PM ET, Peacock. Creighton suffered a bizarre loss to Seton Hall on Sunday where there were back-to-back held balls. I say you be the judge on if Creighton was fouled or not here:

I could be swayed either way here. I'm pretty surprised it's not a foul because officials are usually whistle-happy in these spots, but it's a judgment call at heart. Anyway, Creighton has had surprising success at Villanova, winning there two straight years and smoking the 'Cats on the road in February 2020. Typically, this game is either super tight (within five points) or a 20+ point demolition.

#23 Arkansas (-4) at #69 Ole Miss, 9 PM ET, SEC Network. Again, I fundamentally disagree with the logic that a game on January 7 or any time before February 1 is a non-negotiable MUST WIN. It always strikes me as really funny when that logic pops up in any sport with a lengthy season. Anyway, this is why I don't think this game is a must-win for Ole Miss: because they would need this one and two more like it in January to even get back into mild Tournament talks.

#31 SMU at #35 Clemson (-2), 9 PM ET, ESPNU. As of right now, there are six teams in the ACC projected to finish either 11-7 or 12-6 in conference play. This game features two of them. Neither of these interior defenses are much beyond "agreeable," and I'd be a little surprised if either team runs out to a huge shooting edge. So it'll come down to what wins out: SMU's offensive rebounding (35th-best against top-300 competition) or Clemson's defensive rebounding (12th). If Clemson owns the boards, they win; if SMU does, they will.

C Games

NCAAW: #76 Saint Joseph's at #51 Davidson (-5.5), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Once again, the Atlantic 10 could find itself getting a third bid on the women's side for the first time since 2014. They came very close last year; to make it happen this time around, I think Saint Joe's needs to win this game. Richmond and Rhode Island also need to keep winning.

#28 Indiana (-6) at #110 Maryland, 6:30 PM ET, BTN. A really odd thing is happening online with this Indiana football run: several Indiana fans I follow are actually annoyed when they're reminded of the existence of Indiana basketball. (For additional reading on the oddity of this dynamic, here's this from another Big Ten university with experience in it.) Against the death rattle that is this edition of Maryland basketball they should be fine, though it's worth noting Maryland is due some better 3PT% luck on defense.

#60 Missouri at #24 Kentucky (-9), 7 PM ET, ESPN2. I lied. This actually is a MUST WIN GAME™ for Kentucky. Not in the sense that it's a season-saver, but in the sense that the Wildcats need a win to make a fanbase who wanted to build a Mark Pope statue nine months ago calm down even a little bit.

#38 Miami FL at #61 Wake Forest (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPNU. I made the mistake of wondering if the fire is still hot at Wake Forest, and when they were down with seven minutes to go against Virginia Tech on Saturday I kinda thought the season was dying in real time. Alas! Not so fast. There's a decent chance that, with one upset and holding serve in two additional games as a fave, they could be 13-6, 4-2 ACC heading into a road game at Duke on January 24. Not too bad.

#7 UConn (-9) at #64 Providence, 7 PM ET, Peacock. Providence saved their season with a shock victory at St. John's on Saturday, which, as of now, only rates as the 21st-least likely win of the year despite being a huge underdog and going down 9-0 almost immediately. Can they pull off the unthinkable double?

NCAAW: #44 Utah (-0.5) at #58 Kansas, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. I don't buy this Kansas team. -5.5 rebounding margin per 100, bailing themselves out entirely through excellent shooting despite putrid offensive shot volume. Maybe I'll be wrong! But if they finish 12th in the Big 12 I won't be shocked.

#134 Troy at #138 Arkansas State (-2), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Sun Belt title game preview. Troy feels half a level ahead of Arkansas State to me, but these either/or road games for them under Scott Cross have typically gone poorly: 19-20 straight-up when the spread's within five either way.

#49 Washington at #4 Purdue (-16), 8:30 PM ET, BTN. This Washington team is a pretty clear Doesn't Have It situation for me. I have no idea why their offense is this broken; it's like a team that technically plays in the same arena but mentally always seems elsewhere. They rebound well, but that's about it. Really frustrating viewing experience.

#75 California at #19 Virginia (-11), 9 PM ET, ACC Network. Our reverend at church is a California graduate who does not have social media, and the first thing we talked about yesterday was this:

Can you blame him? One of the most insane endings in sports history. Anyway, on face value this looks like a potentially really bad matchup for the Cal defense even though I think the Cal offense could make hay.

#101 Grand Canyon at #50 Boise State (-9), 11 PM ET, FS1. Boise State is either going to have the worst record for a top-50 Mountain West team ever or they're finally going to have a little better luck in these games. I would wager the latter is more likely.

Thursday, January 8

A Games

NCAAW: #8 Kentucky (-2.5) at #25 Alabama, 7 PM ET, SECN+. Great hoop. What can I say? Kentucky is 15-1, and for all Kentucky fans annoyed by their men's team, they should consider supporting Clara Strack and her teammates much more frequently. Alabama is also 15-1, but their SOS is a bit lower and I'm a little alarmed at just how deep their deep drop coverage can get. If Kentucky's hitting jumpers, they may run away...or if not, they may get run over.

NCAAW: #17 Tennessee (-3) at #34 Mississippi State, 7:30 PM ET, SECN+. I think the Lady Vols are going to win some games by pure math this year. Against top-200 competition, they get off 16 more three-point attempts per 100 shots, win turnover margin by +4.8 per 100 possessions, sit 9th in OREB%. Do they play particularly pleasant basketball to the eye? Not really, but it's a formula that should get them some good wins. If they end up 11-5 in the SEC it's a success.

CFP Semifinals: Fiesta Bowl (Miami/Ole Miss), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN. Fine. I'll watch it. I don't particularly want to, as I'm ready for college football to be done, but this is a bang-even game to me, and with that comes the promise of two things: general Ole Miss weirdness and general Mario Cristobal In a Close Game events.

The Non-D1 Game of the Week

D2: #8 Northern Michigan at #9 Michigan Tech (-1.5), 7:30 PM ET, Flo Sports. You need to be aware of this one, need to. NMU got the heralded Fawcett Bump this weekend:

And, as of now, they have the very best offense in Division II, dumping in a hilarious 127.2 points per 100 possessions. The Wildcats play a super-slow, deliberate style with an extreme amount of off-ball screens and cuts, almost never ending up with 1-on-1 play. Michigan Tech, meanwhile, has a top-5 defense in the nation and has been utterly unbelievable at rim protection, which makes this a great tactics battle with mostly equal rosters. The expected pace here is around 64-65 possessions, which should tell you what you need to know. It'll be awesome.

B Games

NCAAW: #5 LSU (-15) at #40 Georgia, 6:30 PM ET, SECN+. LSU, losers of two in a row after playing a pathetic non-conference slate, now need to get on the board in SEC play against a scrappy-if-not-great Georgia team. We're going to see a lot of frustration unleashed, whether at Georgia or at themselves.

#62 Northwestern at #15 Michigan State (-11), 6:30 PM ET, BTN. Northwestern is at their most dangerous spot right now: when you think they're probably going to miss the Tournament. This is exactly when they love to come out of nowhere and deliver a stunner. Would you like to know their results since 2022-23 when dipping to 55th or lower at KenPom during Big Ten play? Why, just 11-5 with eight of those wins over top 50 teams despite an expected record of 6-10 in these games. Don't say you weren't warned.

NCAAW: #32 Ole Miss at #7 Oklahoma (-11), 7 PM ET, SECN+. Ole Miss has a penchant for playing up to their competition, so this being close wouldn't be anything surprising. However, I have a note: were you aware this Oklahoma team is first in the nation in opponent eFG%? Pretty nuts, and not at all what I've come to expect.

NCAAW: #26 Michigan State at #24 Washington (-3), 9 PM ET, BTN+. These two teams are a combined 26-3, and yet, I feel like I don't know much of anything about either. This is a function of two 'eh' schedules. For instance, how real is Michigan State's +15.8 turnover margin per 100 possessions? I don't know. I look forward to finding out soon.

#39 Ohio State (-1) at #68 Oregon, 10:30 PM ET, BTN. I mentioned this last week, but since Players Era ended, this Oregon team is 29th at Torvik. 29th! It's a smaller sample, to be sure, and I don't think they'll continue running +6.5% from deep like they have in those seven games. Even so, this seems like a team with a significantly higher 'true' ranking than what KenPom may reflect. I'll guess they finish 48th at year's end.

C Games

#100 Hofstra (-2) at #172 Towson, 12:30 PM ET, Flo Sports. Day ball! Meaningful day ball at that. Hofstra is the provisional favorite in a tight, flat CAA and is in a fun historical position. After winning 16 of the last 22 road games at Towson, they've now lost three straight. Can they turn the tide?

NCAAW: #47 Virginia Tech at #43 Syracuse (-3.5), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. It's one of your available options. Syracuse is...really good on the offensive boards? About all I can offer.

NCAAW: #9 Louisville (-12.5) at #54 Miami FL, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Louisville, for the first time in a few years, looks like the Actual For Real best team in the ACC. Finally! Back to normal. This strikes me as a possibly tricky road game, though, with a Miami team that can exploit Louisville's main flaw (the lack of a great defensive frontcourt).

NCAAW: #45 Colorado at #30 Baylor (-7.5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Baylor is going to make your future NCAA Tournament, but Colorado really, really needs to pick off one of these games at some point.

#174 Idaho State at #170 Northern Colorado (-3), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. In the endless Big Sky battle, this is...maybe? a game between the two best teams in the league. My HOT TAKE is that it's actually Montana State, but I'm willing to be wrong.

#55 Santa Clara at #6 Gonzaga (-15), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. Santa Clara, in terms of efficiency, is a top-45 team in the nation in terms of performances against teams inside the top 300. My advice: win this game and act like you truly belong there.

Friday, January 9

A Game

CFP Semifinals: Peach Bowl (Oregon/Indiana), 7:30 PM ET, ESPN. Sorry to say, I'll be locked in on this. I am all in on the Indiana train right now, and have gotta say that this specific final four grouping has saved what was otherwise one of the two or three worst college football seasons of my lifetime.

#56 Akron (-3) at #112 Bowling Green, 8 PM ET, CBSSN. As expected on a night where you're battling with a CFP semifinal, this is a very light night for college basketball. But! This is really fun. Akron is still well in the fight with Miami (OH) for the MAC crown, and Bowling Green wants to prove that they belong in that conversation, too. I think this is a potential nightmare matchup for the BGSU defense, and Akron has won seven straight over their in-state rival. But: if football is boring, this is your best shot for good entertainment.

B Game

#41 USC (-3) at #96 Minnesota, 8:30 PM ET, BTN. This will be another test of my Minnesota Is Actually Good Now Theory. I have no further comments at this time.

C Game

#99 Miami OH (-3) at #173 Toledo, 6 PM ET, CBSSN. Miami just has to avoid a stumble at home to Western Michigan on Tuesday - a terrible Western Michigan defense - and they can be 16-0 for this game. Just take care of business, boys. Just tap it in.