The Watchlist Tune o' the Week

Folks: we are here. Finally.

After seven long months, college basketball returns TODAY. Officially. I've personally said most of what I needed to say in the preseason essay, but I encourage you to re-read as much of our website as possible. What we've accomplished here in the first few months of existence is incredible, and I personally haven't seen anything like it as a collective since...well, Grantland.

That was the offseason, by the way. Imagine what we can do, all of us, in a five-month season that promises to be unlike any that came before it. That is the beauty of being here: every season's chapters, stories, and pages are uniquely told, with a new cast and new writers of these five-month books every winter. That is why we don't wait until February to tune in. Welcome back.

If you were a subscriber at my old newsletter, you know the system for the Watchlist, but if not:

  • A Games are obvious: the best of the best. We have one A+ Game every week, which is the Game of the Week under a different name. If you’re near a TV you should be watching this game at this time.
  • B Games are good games that perhaps don’t quite have star power. I recommend keeping these on your periphery and flipping to them during commercial, or perhaps exercising them as a second screen if you’re into multi-view.
  • C Games are clear undercards that could become a certifiable Situation if things break correctly, but in general these are mostly just games to be aware of in case your top options fall through. I’ll give these a sentence at most.
  • We hope to never get to D or F Games this season. No need.

All lines and game information are via KenPom unless otherwise noted. All lines for women's games are via Bart Torvik. Onward!!!!!

Monday, November 3

The A+ Game of the Week

#2 Florida (-5) vs. #15 Arizona, 7 PM ET, TNT. It's extremely rare to start the year with the best game of the week on opening night, but hey, glad to see the sport taking itself seriously for once. Florida, of course, gets their chance to defend the national title immediately against an Arizona team with sights set on a deep March run and their usual terrific frontcourt.

Both of these teams have new talent and old souls, which makes for a very entertaining meeting of the minds. I want to see how much offense Florida initiates through Xaivian Lee, who is a special talent but has never played more than three minutes against a top-50 opponent in his three-year college career. For Arizona: how ready are Koa Peat and Brayden Burries right away? There's a path here where Peat functions well as a point forward in the slot (the middle third of the court), giving Jaden Bradley some needed off-ball time. In a game with two excellent frontcourts and two likely-pretty-good-but-we-don't-know-yet backcourts, that might be the difference. Basketball!

B Games

NCAAW: #28 Baylor vs. #5 Duke (-9.5), 12 PM ET, ESPN. Great way to start your extended lunch break. Duke seems really deep to me, with seven legitimate starter-level players...but I could argue that Baylor's Darianna Littlepage-Buggs is the single best player in this game, and Baylor went 17-1 last year in games where she scored 11 or more points. Great defensive scrap here as well: two drop coverages that funnel everything to ~12 feet.

NCAAW: #41 California vs. #24 Vanderbilt (-4.5), 2:30 PM ET, ESPNU. Vandy has designs above 24th-best for 2025-26, but their secondary depth beyond the amazing Mikayla Blakes is questionable. This is a strange matchup against an extremely packed-in Cal defense, as Vandy wants to run and get downhill as much as possible. If they can do that early on this could be a surprise beatdown; if not we might be in for 40 minutes of fun.

#18 BYU (-5) vs. #51 Villanova, 9:30 PM ET, TNT. AJ Dybantsa's college debut, and also Villanova's Kevin Willard debut. Dybantsa wants to play like Tracy McGrady, but in terms of statistical comps using play type data at Synergy, he comes out most similarly to a latter-day Kevin Durant. Either of those outcomes is an extreme success for any 18-year-old. Dybantsa is money anywhere inside the three-point line, so I'm wondering how much (and how successfully) Villanova can keep him beyond it. My over/under on opening night for Dybantsa is 20.5 points.

C Games

#219 Queens at #151 Winthrop (-6), 8 AM ET, YouTube. This begins the Field of 68's Opening Day Marathon, which all of us should be tipping our hat to. In a world without ESPN's 24-hour version of it, this is a great compromise.

#106 Bradley (-2) vs. #122 St. Bonaventure, 11 AM ET, YouTube. This is the actual first good game, though. I'd have both of these teams a little higher than their KenPom positions, as Bradley has two legitimate First Team All-MVC talents in Jaquan Johnson and Wright State transfer Alex Huibregtse, while the Bonnies have Daryl Simmons II (awesome) and Dasonte Bowen (outstanding perimeter defender). Either (or both) of these teams could win 22+ games this year.

#103 High Point (-3) vs. #133 Furman, 6:30 PM ET, YouTube. Hits slightly less for me, but hard to turn down any game between the preseason Big South and SoCon favorites. I learn Furman here in terms of being the tighter team on opening night, but they've gotta figure out that backcourt.

#147 Arkansas State at #154 Ohio (-3), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Much appreciated for the MAC and Sun Belt to move their challenge to November. Very intriguing debut for Ryan Pannone and ArkState here.

#124 Troy at #125 Kent State (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. This is the superior game for me, as I have Troy winning the Sun Belt and Kent second in the MAC. Plus: Thomas Dowd vs. Delrecco Gillespie. THAT is Real Hoop, baby!

NCAAW: #58 South Dakota St. (-1.5) at #88 Creighton, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. As is their standard, SDSU has sights set beyond merely making the Tournament, instead hoping to wear home uniforms in the Tournament for just the fourth time ever (2009, 2018, 2019). Creighton's more rebuilding this year, but this will still be a tough task for Brooklyn Meyer and crew to navigate.

NCAAW: #95 Grand Canyon at #1 South Carolina (-32.5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Yet another 'how reworked can the best team in basketball be' exhibition. It's almost unfathomable that we let Dawn Staley get Ta'Niya Latson out of the portal.

#158 St. Thomas at #55 Saint Mary's (-13), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. This is as clash-y a clash as two severely different styles can give you. Huge hat tip to SMC for scheduling both this and UTC in the same week.

Tuesday, November 4

A Game

NCAAW: #15 NC State vs. #9 Tennessee (-2), 4 PM ET, ESPN2. A gigantic late afternoon game here, sort of like a Champions League special. This is a fascinating tangle between a very downhill, exceptionally fast Tennessee offense and an NC State defense happy to stay as packed in as possible to force tons of jumpers. As such, this comes down to Tennessee's ability to control the boards and/or to simply hit the open shots the NC State structure will give them.

B Games

NCAAW: #3 UConn (-13) vs. #27 Louisville, 5:30 PM ET, ESPN. UConn's post-Bueckers era starts here, though you could also just say the Sarah Strong era starts now, too. My main fear here for Louisville is the lack of a great rim protector to help slow Strong/Serah Williams/the entire team down, though I don't doubt Laura Zeigler will put in her best shift possible.

#39 Texas vs. #7 Duke (-7), 8:45 PM ET, ESPN. Really strange first game for each here: a potentially sputtering Texas offense without great ball movement against a completely remade Duke defense who we just won't know a ton about too quickly. If Texas hits shots, this is obviously more fun than it looks. Alternately, if Duke shoots 40% or better from deep and lives up to what I think they could be defensively (top five), this is going to be over fast.

C Games

#221 Robert Morris at #46 Iowa (-18), 8:30 PM ET, BTN. This is the debut for Ben McCollum, Bennett Stirtz, and the gang at Iowa. Bobby Mo is an intriguing matchup for them as Andy Toole's made it pretty clear he wants to push the pace, which is easier said than done against McCollum.

#153 Louisiana Tech at #92 Nevada, 10 PM ET, Mountain West Network. They didn't find a broadcast partner for this until October 30, which is odd to me. Anyway, these are two teams that really need to start 2025-26 off with a win after heavily disappointing 2024-25 campaigns.

#113 Hawaii at #37 Oregon (-13), 10:30 PM ET, BTN. Hawaii always brings a fascinating stylistic matchup, usually by way of sprinting at shooters on the three-point line and forcing them to take midrange twos/floaters instead. The problem is that Oregon mostly operates through the post, and Hawaii almost never doubles...which is bad when your opponent has Nate Bittle. Interested, just not expecting much.

Wednesday, November 5

By miles, this is the worst night of the week. Just giving you a heads up, as every Wednesday from January onward will be super-packed.

B Games

NCAAW: #48 Fairfield at #42 Villanova (-4), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Best game by far of the weakest night this week. Meghan Anderson of Fairfield is a legitimate star and seems to get zero press despite posting 60% 2PT/38% 3PT last year on 24% Usage%. Nova has their best roster since 2022-23, though, which will make this a very fun one. I'll be tuned in.

C Games

#277 Southern Indiana at #72 Butler (-17), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Two reasons: 1) I'm going to Butler's game Saturday after the Monumental Marathon in Indy. 2) Southern Indiana is 8-4 ATS in their short Division I history as a 10+ point underdog, including a near-win at DePaul last year on opening night. Then again, this USI roster looks pretty rough on face value.

#164 Southern at #47 Marquette (-16), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Similar reasons here: Southern is 15-11 ATS, including a surprising 5-21 straight-up (expected wins here would be about 1-25), when a 10+ point dog. Kevin Johnson: good coach.

Thursday, November 6

B Games

NCAAW: #68 George Mason at #54 James Madison (-5), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. An actual, real chance this could give the winner a lane towards future at-large status, given that GMU is expected to be a contender with Richmond for the Atlantic 10 and JMU the heavy favorite in a rapidly improving Sun Belt. I hate doing the MBB-to-WBB comps to interest MBB fans, but like, Saint Louis at Saint Mary's, you're watching that, right?

#121 Illinois State at #154 Ohio (-1), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Maybe a top-15 most purely fun matchup of this opening week, and certainly, well among the most offense-friendly. Both teams could be truly explosive in this one, too: Chase Walker can attack what is a fairly undersized Ohio frontcourt, and Ohio can expose Walker's lack of great footspeed by dragging him to the perimeter in high ball screens. If both sides touch 80+ in regulation it's not a surprise, but if Illinois State can keep Ohio at 75 or lower, it's a decent sign for a defense I don't believe in yet.

C Games

#251 Jackson State at #14 Louisville (-27), 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Season debut for Pat Kelsey and the remade Cards. A mere FWIW here: as a double-digit dog over the last four seasons, Jackson State is 26-14-2 ATS.

NCAAW: #59 Missouri (-3) at #101 Tulane, 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+. This is Kellie Harper's first road game as Mizzou's head coach, which is a fun storyline. It has the potential to be a bad one, at least based on 2024-25 stats: a Mizzou team that's 9th-percentile in transition defensive efficiency against a Tulane offense that's 92nd-percentile in transition/fast-break usage. Also, Mizzou lost in their exhibition to a D2 team, and not a particularly good one.

#161 CSUN at #117 Northern Iowa (-7), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. One of the sport's most extreme, deep-set man defenses against a UNI offense that generally doesn't want to take many jumpers.

Raiders at Broncos, 8:15 PM ET, Prime Video. Thursday Night Football on Prime this year has been utterly incredible at producing 6/10 matchups: games that you don't really want to pay full attention to, but are on in the background in case they develop into more. This is more like a 4/10, but I'll count it.

Friday, November 7

A Games

#21 Kansas at #33 North Carolina (-2), 7 PM ET, ESPN. This is a bit of a Uniform Game, but whom among us can turn down the luxury of one of those on opening week? Darryn Peterson is going to be the storyline here, and the Dean Dome being his first major test in college is pretty fascinating. Can the Heels keep Peterson - who is a rather extreme SGA copycat (complimentary) - off the line and out of the lane? If so, I like their odds, particularly given that over the last five years, Kansas is 6-12-1 (the third-worst cover rate in the Big 12) ATS and 3-16 straight-up as a road underdog.

B Games

D3: #7 UW-La Crosse (-0.5) vs. #8 Hampden-Sydney, 7 PM ET, FloSports. Pure fun, this one. I won't pretend to know much about either, and certainly, I won't pay for FloSports to watch it. But if you DO pay for it, this is a top-10 D3 game against two serious title contenders, and Flo Sports ends up showing half of their stuff for free on YouTube anyway.

NCAAW: #62 St. John’s at #78 Harvard (-0.5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. Great push-and-pull matchup here. SJU wants the slowest game possible, but it won't matter if they can't stop Harvard's litany of dribble handoffs. They're one of the ten best programs in WBB at running said sets.

#60 VCU vs. #42 Utah State (-3), 8 PM ET, The Urban Edge Network? I've never heard of this either, but it is real, and it will broadcast what might be the least-attended good game of the entire season. This game will be held in Frisco, TX (notably not near either Virginia or Utah) at 7 PM local, for reasons that I cannot figure out at all beyond "because we can." The game is technically hosted by the G-League affiliate of the Mavs (the Texas Legends) but that only seems to extend to the fact it's in their building, not that they organized it. So!

One of the Urban Edge Network's main missions, upon clicking on their website, is to support HBCUs by...creating some sort of AI model that tells you a player is globally trustworthy?

Anyway, the actual game here rules. I think we'll learn something about what VCU is for 2025-26 in this game. I'm a believer in Tyrell Ward (formerly of LSU) popping at this level, because he's a great downhill athlete who could punish a slower Utah State team in the slot off of his already dangerous spot-up looks. But...man, I cannot wait to see Mason Falslev play. Fun, fun, fun! Only on the Urban Edge Network™!

#118 Chattanooga at #55 Saint Mary’s (-10), 10:30 PM ET, ESPN+. UTC enjoyed losing by 12 at SMC so much last season that they decided to come back for more, which is great news for fans of fun mid-major matchups. The all-midrange defense SMC produces was actually beaten fairly well by Chattanooga's monster backcourt last year, but UTC's own defense got ruthlessly shredded. We'll see if they can change that story this time.

C Games

NCAAW: #67 Cincinnati at #74 Penn State (-2), 6 PM ET, BTN+. Intriguing seasons lie ahead for both Katrina Merriweather (Cincinnati, year 3) and Carolyn Kieger (PSU, year 6). Neither has made the Tournament at their respective schools, and it's getting late quick for both despite each showing promise.

#82 Georgetown at #34 Maryland (-10), 6 PM ET, FS1. A fascinating Week One battle here. Georgetown has far more to prove here, but it's inarguably a bad sign for Buzz Williams and crew if they drop one to G'town this early.

#132 Charleston at #100 Liberty (-7), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Field of 68 Tip-off in Lynchburg, which is pretty cool. Liberty is this year's Mid-Major Returner Superstar, meaning they brought back basically everyone from a 12 seed and should be very stable. Charleston has a lot more up in the air, which makes this a fun early test for each.

#124 Troy at #133 Furman (-1), 6:30 PM ET, ESPN+. How about this opening stretch for Troy? Outside of a November 11 home game versus Pensacola Christian, these are their first six games, all on the road: Kent State, Furman, Loyola Marymount, CSUN, San Diego State, and USC. Let's be honest here: if you come out of that at 2-4, you've gotta be happy, right?

NCAAW: #37 Richmond at #4 Texas (-16.5), 8 PM ET, ESPN+. A presumed double-digit W for Texas, but Richmond may have the best player in the game here in Maggie Doogan, who shot 63% 2PT/41% 3PT last year while averaging 7.1 RPG/3.8 APG.

#98 UAB at #38 NC State (-11), 9 PM ET, ACC Network. First 'real' game for Will Wade and crew after playing NC Central on Monday. This UAB team has an explosive backcourt (complementary) and an exploding frontcourt (derogatory), which will make for something interesting, even if I'm not entirely sure what it is.

#101 McNeese at #105 Santa Clara (-2), 10 PM ET, ESPN+. Great depth vs. star matchup here. I think McNeese's Javohn Garcia and DJ Richards are the two best players involved, but all of Elijah Mahi/Brenton Knapper/Jake Ensminger are better than my best guess at McNeese's #3 option.

Saturday, November 8

A Game

#23 Alabama at #16 St. John’s (-6), 12 PM ET, FS1. This sets up a potentially monster day for Alabama fans, who have this in the early afternoon and a chance to put LSU football in the dirt after sunset. This is a stylistic collision, one that should mean a fun, back-and-forth affair. Winner here depends almost entirely on turnovers for me. I think Alabama's going to take better shots; I think St. John's will get to the line more and win the boards battle. If Alabama's got turnover issues here it's a Red Storm win.

B Games

#84 San Francisco at #52 Memphis (-8), 3 PM ET, ESPN+. No real commentary here. I like that Penny Hardaway schedules like this. More welcoming of strong mid-majors into your own arena! The downside of it is nowhere near as severe as more conservative schedulers claim.

#19 Vanderbilt (-3) at #64 UCF, 4 PM ET, ESPN+. An early, scary test for my Vanderbilt optimism, as I have them fifth in the SEC. They're going to be ruthless on the perimeter defensively, which could be less than great for a UCF team that has turnover issues. Then again...this isn't the tallest team ever, and UCF should be somewhat better in the paint.

#29 Arkansas at #25 Michigan State (-4), 7 PM ET, FOX. John Calipari, non-conference games where he was a road/neutral underdog, 2015 to present: 15-8-1 ATS. Just noting this! It's the games where Cal is a favorite you've got to watch out for.

#58 Oklahoma at #8 Gonzaga (-11), 10:30 PM ET, ESPN. If Oklahoma had anyone on this roster that could potentially stop a drive to the basket for more than a couple possessions at a time, I might be more interested. Then again, this is kind of a version of the Houston/Miami Sweet Sixteen game from 2023, where Miami simply made every single jumper they attempted and won anyway.

C Games

#81 George Washington (-3) vs. #104 South Florida, 1:30 PM ET, Peacock. Is GW ready to contend for the A-10? Is South Florida ready to battle with Memphis for the American? A fun early data point for each.

#71 Virginia Tech vs. #48 Providence (-3), 4 PM ET, Peacock. I mean...not my call here either way. But Kim English really, really needs this one. Mike Young arguably does too, but with a road game at Colorado looming next week Providence needs one on the board early.

#111 Utah Valley at #53 Boise State (-10), 4 PM ET, Mountain West Network. At Taco Bell Arena, or whatever it's called now, Boise is basically unbeatable as a favorite: 33-1 straight-up when favored by 7+ points since 2021, the one loss being a 46-39 fluke to Cal State Bakersfield where they shot 7-46 on everything that wasn't a layup. Best of luck, UVU.

NCAAW: #43 Kansas State (-2) at #72 SMU, 5 PM ET, ESPN+. Kansas State will have to undergo a near-full rebuild this year, with just one starter (Taryn Sides) back from their Sweet Sixteen team last season. SMU has lots of depth but no obvious star, making this a game where they'd love to find one.

NCAAW: #69 Davidson (-2.5) at #108 FGCU, 7 PM ET, ESPN+. Two great mid-majors tangling here. Keep an eye on Davidson's new point guard, Angeliki Ziaka from San Francisco, who broke out last year as an absolute demon on the defensive end.

#118 Chattanooga at #107 UNLV (-4), 9 PM ET, Mountain West Network. The second half of a brutal back-to-back for UTC here. I think if you can get one of the two you're really happy.

Sunday, November 9

A Game

NCAAW: #15 NC State vs. #8 USC (-3), 3 PM ET, ESPN. How about NC State's opening week, huh? Anyway, I'm fascinated to see what USC really is this year with no JuJu Watkins. Their add of Kara Dunn from Georgia Tech gives them a high floor in the backcourt with a taller guard that gets downhill extremely well and has a plus shot...but what if that's all they have to start the season? Plus, State has the better best player here in all likelihood, getting Khamil Pierre from Vandy. Fun game.

B Games

#40 Indiana (-1) vs. #47 Marquette, 1 PM ET, ESPN. I love this game for several reasons, but number one is that it's two completely different roster philosophies taking on one another. Indiana has a new coach and is all transfers; Marquette has zero transfers and is undergoing a rebuild that would be totally normal for 99.7% of programs prior to 2022.

NCAAW: #38 Princeton at #52 Georgia Tech (-0.5), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Gigantic opportunity for Princeton, as this is the start of a defining three-game stretch that could either make them into a future 7/8 seed or could leave them depleted of good wins and needing to win the Ivy. I wish them way more than luck.

#35 Texas A&M (-2) at #69 Oklahoma State, 2 PM ET, ESPN2. This is our first real look at two things: how up for it Bucky Ball will be in Year One, and how real the supposed leap forward for Oklahoma State and Steve Lutz is. I think this might be a little too much too soon for the Ags, but they're so explosive in both directions that nearly anything is plausible.

#45 Washington at #17 Baylor (-9), 8:30 PM ET, ESPN. This is our first real look at two things: how seriously I'm supposed to take a Washington team with an awful defense, and how seriously I'm supposed to take a Baylor team that is entirely new parts.

C Games

NCAAW: #78 Harvard at #11 Michigan (-17.5), 12 PM ET, BTN+. It's plausible to me that this Michigan team may be a hair underrated, though the AP has them 13th. This is the ultra-rare team whose four best players are all going to be sophomores (three) or juniors (Ashley Sofilkanich from Bucknell), which means real potential for huge upside.

NCAAW: #34 Florida State at #3 UConn (-19.5), 12 PM ET, FS1. FSU can and should score a bit to keep this fun for a quarter or two. That's all I got.

NCAAW: #66 Georgetown at #17 Maryland (-14), 1 PM ET, BTN+. The women's version of the men's battle on Friday with similar-ish stakes. Brianna Scott for G'town is fantastic, but she can't do it alone.

#169 South Dakota State at #117 Northern Iowa (-7), 2 PM ET, ESPN+. Joe Sayler ripping threes for South Dakota State? An extremely old, high-floor Northern Iowa team getting two solid home opponents to start the year? I'm in.

NCAAW: #10 Kentucky (-21.5) at #206 Buffalo, 2 PM ET, ESPN+. This is on here exclusively for the novelty factor of a top-10 team (by Torvik, anyway; 24th in AP) playing at Buffalo, just the fourth time they've hosted a ranked opponent in school history.

NCAAW: #9 Tennessee (-22.5) at #178 Tennessee Martin, 3 PM ET, ESPN+. This is on here exclusively for the novelty factor of the Lady Vols playing at UT-Martin, a state school on the Kentucky border. I think more programs should do this, by the way. Is there really a downside if you're Illinois and you play a game at SIU Edwardsville? The crowd's going to be mostly your fans anyway.

#88 North Texas vs. #99 Loyola Chicago (-0.5), 5 PM ET, ESPN+. You can do way worse than throwing this on, albeit the neutral site factor bums me out. Miles Rubin is a legitimate powerhouse rim protector, but he'll be tested by a North Texas frontcourt led by post power Dylan Arnett.

#145 Florida Atlantic at #100 Liberty (-7), 6 PM ET, ESPN+. Final game (I think?) of the Field of 68 event in Lynchburg. I'm a little higher on FAU than the KenPom ranking implies but think they may be a sum > parts team this year, as it's very hard to find the one player who will seriously contend for All-AAC status.