With the vast majority of the non-conference season behind us, I wanted to take a quick look into some of the things that we learned throughout the first ~2 months of the season. We are now coming off of the holiday break, where the page turns to the conference season, and without games for the last six days, I felt like it would be a perfect time to figure out "what I learned" through the first half of the regular season.
UConn
A year after winning the National Championship, UConn looks poised to do it again. Through their first 12 games of the season, they have only been tested a handful of times. They beat Louisville by 13 in the first game of the season, and it looks better and better every day with how Louisville is playing this season, but they also led in that game by 20 or more points for most of the second half. They had a scare against Michigan, a game they only won by three, but it took the heroics of Syla Swords to give Michigan a fighting chance late in the game.
Other than those two games, UConn has absolutely rolled so far this year, notching wins by 32 over Florida State, by 32 over Ohio State, by 52 over Utah, by 28 over USC, and by 26 over Iowa. UConn still has Notre Dame and Tennessee to face in the non-conference schedule, but those games will not be until 1/19 and 2/1.
It would be a shock if they lost a Big East contest and didn't roll into March unbeaten in conference play. Per BartTorvik, UConn is currently a 24-point favorite over both Notre Dame and Tennessee, so at this point, a loss during the regular season for UConn looks highly unlikely.
They have both the best adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency in the country and are operating as a well-oiled machine. They hold the best resume in the country with four Quad I wins and a wins above bubble (WAB) of +5.4. It's safe to say you can pencil in UConn as one of the top seeds in March this season.
When you have all but one player on your roster with better than a 106.4 offensive rating, you're doing extremely well. Couple that with six players with a true shooting percentage higher than 62.4 percent, and you've got yourself one of the best offensive teams of the last decade.
There is still a long way to go this year, but UConn is looking like the team to beat so far this year.
Unbeaten, You Say?
There are still 12 teams who have not lost a game:
There are a few teams on this list that have been good for a while and came into the season with high expectations and thus aren't a surprise to be unbeaten at this point in the season. Looking at you, Iowa State, LSU, Maryland, TCU, Texas, and UConn.
There are a few teams who haven't been challenged quite heavily this year, giving them an open path to being unbeaten so far, which would include Alabama, Nebraska, and Vanderbilt.
Which leaves me with Arizona State, Georgia, and Texas Tech as teams that are unbeaten and playing great basketball.
Arizona State won 10 games last season and finished 10-22. Under first-year head coach Molly Miller, they sit at 14-0 on the season thus far. Early on in the season they were taking care of business against lesser competition, but over the past few weeks their level of competition took a step forward. They've beaten six top-100 teams this season, with four of those coming in their last four games against Penn State, Oregon State, Gonzaga, and Colorado. Arizona State has a tough road ahead with road games at Utah and BYU to continue into conference play. Arizona State is a surprise unbeaten for me at this point in the season, but Miller has them steered in the right direction.
Similarly to Arizona State, Georgia is going to eclipse their win total from last year in short order. Sitting at 13-0, Georgia has already tied the number in the win column from last season, as they finished the 2024-25 season with a 13-19 record. Their time as an unbeaten team might be coming to a close with their first conference game, as they'll travel to take on Ole Miss on New Year's Day. If they are able to win that game to move to 15-0 (after an assumed win against Charleston Southern), then Georgia will become a team that everyone takes notice of.
Entering the year, many thought that Krista Gerlich might have been on the hot seat...but not anymore. They've played their way into the Top 25 and have notched a few very nice wins. Last season at this point, they sat at 12-2 before a very disappointing 4-14 conference finish left them wanting more. This year feels different, though, after grabbing a conference win over a Top-15 Baylor team as well as non-conference wins over SEC foes Arkansas and Mississippi State. Now, as they fully turn to Big 12 play, a very favorable schedule awaits them, as they are currently favored in all but one of their nine upcoming Big 12 contests. It will take a collapse of epic proportions for Texas Tech to miss the NCAA tournament this year, and they could be angling for an outside shot at a Top-4 seed this season.
We did the work in November and December
Princeton deserves a ton of credit with the schedule that they played in the non-conference and currently sit fifth in the country in terms of Wins Above Bubble at +3.4. They notched four Quad I or II wins to begin the season and have firmly planted themselves in a situation to get an at-large bid if they need one.
Their "biggest" games of the conference season will be on the road at Columbia and Harvard this year. As long as they don't have a strange letdown and lose a few games, they shouldn't; Princeton's non-conference schedule has easily put them into the tournament.
Credit to Villanova for scheduling their non-conference the way that they did. If they can get through the conference schedule 16-4 or better, their non-conference schedule set them up well for a bid into the tournament, despite suffering two early losses. They dropped home games to both Princeton and Fairfield, but those are two very likely NCAA tournament teams.
Like Princeton, Villanova has grabbed four Quad I or II victories on the season, with their best win being against a ranked West Virginia squad on the road, and followed that win up by beating three Big East teams. Villanova has an excellent chance to continue building their resume as long as they don't slip up in conference play.
Richmond focused their non-conference schedule around making sure that they were playing good competition. With games against Columbia, Fairfield, Green Bay, TCU, Texas, and Penn State, they certainly gave themselves a challenge. They got through their non-conference slate 10-3 and used the months of November and December to prepare themselves for the months ahead.
With one of the best players in women's college basketball on the roster in Maggie Doogan, Richmond is set up well to be able to use their non-conference schedule as a lift to both their tournament resume and as a preparation tool for a run through their conference slate. Their most important games in the conference season are their road contests against Davidson, George Mason, and Rhode Island. If Richmond can sweep those three games, which won't be an easy task, they'll have the upper hand on a bid come March.
Fairfield is also another team who, despite only having nine non-conference games, put themselves in a position to gain an at-large bid if needed. The only real bad mark on their slate was a loss to Howard. They got wins over Richmond, South Florida, and Villanova while playing competitively against both Iowa and North Carolina.
For Fairfield, they currently have 0.7 wins above the bubble, but having two Quad I wins will boost their resume come March. They'll hope to not need to point to their non-conference schedule for a bid into the tournament this year, but if they do, they'll need to make sure they get through their conference slate with a loss or less.
But, like all of the other teams above, Fairfield was just another mid-major team who looked to schedule some tough teams to prepare them for the second half of the season and a run in March.
What Players Are Leading the Charge Thus Far?
Olivia Miles has notched three triple-doubles this season already, as she has helped lead TCU to an unbeaten record through their first 13 games of the season. She's cemented herself as one of the best players in college basketball and is someone that TCU relies on in every facet of the game.
She holds an outrageous 36.6% assist rate and has the second-highest defensive rebound percentage on the team. Her true shooting percentage is 64.2%, and she's a threat to hurt the opposing team in a multitude of ways. After her transfer from Notre Dame, she's ascended into one of the best players in the country. She's scoring 18.9 points a game while dishing off 7.6 assists per contest as one of the best guards in basketball.
Maggie Doogan is one of the top players in the country, and no one is talking about her on a national stage. She's scoring 23.3 points a contest while doing everything at an insanely efficient rate on the floor. Her lowest output on the season has been 15 points in a buy game against Alabama A&M. She put up 22 points against Texas and 23 points against TCU, proving that her scoring ability can come against anyone on the court.
She's knocking down shots from the outside at a 42 percent rate and has hit four or more in five games this season. Doogan is having an elite season and is the most valuable player over a replacement player this year, according to BartTorvik's PORPAGATU! formula.
Lauren Whittaker is one player who is having an excellent season but is overlooked by many. She's just a freshman but is having an insanely big impact on her team at Gonzaga so far this year. Her offensive rating places her in the Top 10 among all freshmen, her effective field goal percentage is second among all freshmen, and her true shooting percentage leads all freshmen with more than 20 minutes per game. Not to mention that she is an elite rebounder, as she ranks as the fourth-best rebounder among all players in terms of defensive rebounding percentage.
Whittaker has shot the ball at a 42 percent clip from behind the arc, proving that she's not just a threat around the basket this year. She scored 27 points against Indiana, 23 points against Marquette, and had 24 points on 13 shots against Arizona State. Whittaker is a name that you'll want to know this year.
Hannah Hidalgo is quite possibly the most relied upon player in women's college basketball, and Notre Dame needs her on the floor every game for the majority of the contest. Her usage rate this season of 34.5 spells that out, and she's made the most of her opportunities this season. Hidalgo holds one of the craziest stat lines of the season so far when she scored 44 points and grabbed 16 steals against Akron earlier in the season.
Even though she's relied upon to score the ball, her assist rate of 29.6 percent shows that she is a willing passer. Couple that with a 13.8 turnover percentage, and that gives you an extremely dynamic lead guard capable of creating points in a multitude of ways. She is shooting nearly 60 percent from inside the arc this season and has shown the ability to change the game on both the offensive and defensive sides of the floor. If Notre Dame has to play any length of the year without Hidalgo, then it could spell trouble.
One player who has not been mentioned as one of the better players in college basketball thus far this season is UCLA's Gabriela Jaquez. With all of the talent around her, it's easy for her to blend in, but all she's done so far this season is notch a 139.0 offensive rating (2nd best on the team), a 67.5 effective shooting percentage, and a 70.8 true shooting percentage (both best on the team).
She's also in line to become a 50-40-90 player and is shooting the ball at a 55% rate from behind the arc. It has seemed that when UCLA has needed a big basket, it's Jaquez who steps up to knock down the shot. UCLA's ceiling might hinge on how well Jaquez can play her role, and so far, she's the best role player in college basketball.
