As we are now coming to the end of the season and the start of postseason play, I am once again taking a look conference by conference and figuring out who is closing in on winning their regular season conference title, as well as the very valuable conference tournament #1 seed (more valuable in some conferences than others, looking at you, WCC). Over the past week, some conference races have cleared up quite a bit, while others have gotten a bit muddier with some upsets. However, a lot of the conferences have pretty clear paths now as they are mostly two team races so those conferences will end up getting minimal words from me this week.
I'll take a quick look at each of the 31 conferences in the order they are listed on BartTorvik, so if you are interested in any specific conference or team at the top of a conference, please feel free to CTRL+F now!
As a bit of a precursor, I'm going to assume that if a team is three games back at this point in the season, they won't be going on a hot streak to win the conference.
Accordingly, upsets do happen. Sometimes the eighth-best team in the conference knocks off the top team in the conference. But for the sole reason of not making myself list out every single game that each team plays, I'm going to assume that they beat the teams that they should beat...and if they don't, we can discuss it the next week!
Let's get after it.
Atlantic 10
Rhode Island: 14-0
Richmond: 12-2
This has now turned into a two-team race between Rhode Island and Richmond, and Rhode Island has the huge upper hand. With George Mason's win over Richmond yesterday, it dropped Richmond's probability to win the #1 seed down to just above 2%. Rhode Island and Richmond still have a game this year against each other, but Richmond would need some massive help from others, as they would need to beat Rhode Island and then also hope that they lose another game this season. Rhode Island completely controls their destiny with four games to go.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-18: Rhode Island @ La Salle
2-18: Richmond @ George Washington
Above are the two games that could put a little disruption into the flow of things. If Rhode Island loses, then Richmond is firmly back in the race with their meeting coming up this upcoming week. If Richmond loses, then the race for the top seed is effectively over.
ACC
Duke: 14-0
Louisville: 14-1
After a 2-0 week by each of these two teams, there is only a 0.2% chance that anyone makes their way into one of the top two seed slots. The method is simple for Duke: keep winning. They hold the seeding tiebreaker over Louisville and would have to go 2-2 over their last four games to have a chance to finish behind Louisville in the standings. For Louisville, it is also simple: keep winning and hope Duke loses. Duke holds all the cards right now, but a loss this week can make things extremely interesting for the last week of play.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-19: NC State @ Duke
2-22: Duke @ Clemson
Duke needs to get through this week 2-0 to all but lock up a share of the ACC title and the #1 seed in the conference. If they win both of these games, their chances of getting the top seed rise to 96%.
America East
Vermont: 11-2
Binghamton: 9-3
What a week for Vermont as they went 2-0 with wins over Binghamton and Bryant, pulling themselves to the top of the conference. Binghamton had an 0-2 week with a loss to Vermont and Albany. This puts Vermont in total control to grab the conference title after being in second place last week. Vermont could lock up the outright title as early as this week with two wins and another Binghamton loss.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-19: Bryant @ Binghamton
Vermont should have no problem in their two games this week, and this is the game that everyone needs to focus on. Bryant is a 0.4-point favorite over Binghamton right now, and a win by Bryant would end the race for the conference title and the #1 seed, provided that Vermont takes care of business.
Atlantic Sun
Eastern Kentucky: 13-1
Despite a loss, Eastern Kentucky still is the extreme favorite to lock up the Atlantic Sun title and the #1 seed. In fact, they'll do it with just a single win this week. Even if they go 0-2 to fall to 13-3 in conference, they'll still have a 98.1% chance to win the top seed. Essentially, they'll need to lose every game the rest of the way, and they still have Bellarmine to play at home to end the season.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-19: Eastern Kentucky @ Florida Gulf Coast
2-21: Eastern Kentucky @ Stetson
Win one of these, and Eastern Kentucky locks up the #1 seed and the conference title no matter what anyone else does.
American
Rice: 12-0
East Carolina: 11-2
Rice and East Carolina both went 2-0 this past week, and it sets up a meaningful week in the American. Rice has a chance to all but lock up the American title this week, but East Carolina could make things interesting with a 2-0 week themselves. South Florida dropped a game this past week, and Tulsa lost both of their games to fall out of contention for the top seed in the conference.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-17: South Florida @ Rice
2-21: Rice @ East Carolina
Rice has a chance to put themselves in a great spot for the top seed in the conference tournament with a pair of wins this week. The South Florida game is nearly rendered meaningless for Rice because a win over East Carolina would still all but guarantee them the top seed.
Big 10
UCLA: 15-0
UCLA needs a single win to clinch both the #1 seed in the tournament and the Big Ten crown. They'll get it this week.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-19: Washington @ UCLA
And just like that, the Big Ten champs are crowned.
Big 12
TCU: 11-3
Baylor: 11-3
West Virginia: 11-4
Texas Tech: 10-4
I feel like a lot of things happened this past week, and nothing cleared up. TCU notched big wins over Baylor and West Virginia to move themselves back into the lead in the Big 12. The three teams behind them now are in the mode where they'll likely need to win out to have a chance at the top seed in the Big 12 tournament. TCU's schedule opens up a bit, and they'll need to lose in a fairly big upset to pull themselves out of the top spot this week. West Virginia is still positioned well to share the conference title but will need to win this week if they want to have an outside shot. TCU's schedule just sets up so well for them in the last two weeks.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-18: Baylor @ Texas Tech
2-21: Texas Tech @ Colorado
2-21: West Virginia @ Oklahoma State
2-22: TCU @ Iowa State
There are a ton of games this week that are going to play into the conference title hunt. Texas Tech has two important games, and a loss will take them out of consideration. If Texas Tech manages to go 2-0, then their win over Baylor would put a huge damper on Baylor's chances to win the top spot in the conference. A West Virginia loss would remove them from consideration as well. TCU's wish for this week will be for Texas Tech to beat Baylor and then lose to Colorado while West Virginia loses to Oklahoma State. It's all confusing, but just know that TCU has a 77.5% chance to grab the top seed in the Big 12 tournament.
Big East
UConn: 16-0
UConn is not losing the Big East.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-18: UConn @ Villanova
UConn officially clinches the top seed and the Big East title with a win here.
Big Sky
Idaho: 12-1
Montana State: 11-2
Idaho took care of business last week and beat Idaho State and now controls their destiny the rest of the way. Both teams should have two games where they are going to win comfortably, and with over two weeks of conference play left, I'm guessing that we will be back in the same situation for the Big Sky blurb next week.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-21: Idaho State @ Montana State
This will be an interesting one for Montana State, as they lost to Idaho State by 19 early in the season but will be double-digit favorites at home for this game. An Idaho State win would likely hand the Big Sky #1 seed to Idaho, but if Montana State is able to win the return game, then we march on with no blood.
Big South
High Point: 10-2
Longwood: 9-3
Radford: 9-3
Longwood did indeed beat High Point last week, and Radford won their lone game of the week. The equation for High Point doesn't change, though, as they need to pick up two wins this week over teams that they should be able to handle. In fact, none of these three teams should lose again this year, and if Longwood or Radford do, they'll be eliminated from contention. In fact, if High Point wins both of their contests this week and Longwood and Radford both win their midweek games, High Point would clinch the top seed in the Big South tournament.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-18: High Point @ UNC Asheville
2-21: High Point @ Gardner Webb
Just win, baby. A loss in either of these games would really generate pressure on High Point to close out the season.
Big West
UC San Diego: 13-2
UC Irvine: 12-2
UC Davis: 12-3
We had the Big West become a bit clearer over the weekend, as now UC Irvine and UC San Diego are the big favorites, with UC Davis holding onto a little hope in third place right now. There is still a while to go before the race is decided, but there is one game this week that will go a long way in determining a favorite for the conference title.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-19: Cal State Fullerton @ UC Davis
2-21: UC Irvine @ UC San Diego
2-21: UC Riverside @ UC Davis
The UC Irvine @ UC San Diego game will be huge, as a UC Irvine win would give them an 80% chance to grab the #1 seed, while a UC San Diego win would give them an 80% chance to win the top spot. That game will be enormous in determining who gets the top seed in the conference tournament. A UC Davis loss in either game likely takes them out of contention.
Coastal Athletic Association (CAA)
Charleston: 12-1
Campbell 10-3
Stony Brook: 9-3
Both Campbell and Stony Brook won all of their games last week, as I mentioned they needed to do to stay in the race. Charleston even slipped up a bit and lost a game last week. It didn't do much in the way of bringing those two much closer to the top, as Charleston still sits with a 96.6% chance to win the CAA.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-20: Charlestown @ Towson
2-20: Campbell @ Elon
2-22: Stony Brook @ Towson
Charleston can continue their path of locking up the top seed with a win on the road at Towson this week. If Towson is able to knock off Stony Brook and Elon can beat Campbell, then it puts Charleston in an even better spot. The CAA can't be clinched this week, but Charleston can all but guarantee the top spot with a win and a loss by each of the other two teams.
Conference USA (CUSA)
Louisiana Tech: 12-1
Louisiana did exactly what I said they needed to do last week. They went 2-0, and then everyone under them took each other out. Louisiana Tech has a three-game lead in the conference with five games to go. This is a league where the #1 seed and conference title can be decided this week.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-19: Louisiana Tech @ Jacksonville State
Louisiana Tech will play their toughest game of the week on Thursday. They should win and then have another game over the weekend against another sub .500 teams in the conference. It's only a matter of time for them to lock it up. If they go 2-0 this week and Sam Houston loses either game they play, then Louisiana Tech clinches.
Horizon
Green Bay: 15-2
Green Bay is the first team to have the #1 seed secured and will at a minimum share the Horizon League title.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-19: Youngstown State @ Northern Kentucky
Green Bay could lock up the outright Horizon title with a loss by Youngstown State in this game. Otherwise, they can lock it up themselves on Saturday.
Ivy
Columbia: 8-2
Princeton: 8-2
Harvard: 7-3
Brown: 7-3
Columbia took down Princeton once again and now moves into control of the #1 seed race. Harvard and Brown are tagging along for the ride, but combined they have a 6% chance to hold the top seed. Columbia is now in a spot where they won the games that they needed to win, and now they can take this week and watch the other teams cause issues for each other. Brown, Harvard, and Princeton all currently do not have the tiebreaker over Columbia, so they are essentially playing elimination games the rest of their season.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-21: Brown @ Princeton
Everyone just has a single game this week, and the Brown @ Princeton game is the most important with their standing in the conference. A Princeton win would muddy up the conference picture a touch, but a Brown win would all but crown Columbia as the #1 seed, provided they don't have any further slip-ups this season.
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC)
Quinnipiac: 16-1
Fairfield: 16-1
Fairfield and Quinnipiac split the season series after Fairfield took down Quinnipiac this past week. These teams should not lose the rest of the season, and if they do, it would be a very major upset. The likely outcome is a shared MAAC title and Quinnipiac taking the top seed by virtue of the tiebreaker.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-21: Quinnipiac @ Sacred Heart
This is the toughest remaining game for either Quinnipiac or Fairfield this season. This is a must-win for Quinnipiac after already beating Sacred Heart by 16 this season. A loss by Quinnipiac would hand Fairfield the #1 seed and the conference title, assuming that Fairfield doesn't end up suffering one of the worst losses in conference history in their last three games.
Mid-American Conference (MAC)
Ball State: 12-1
Miami (OH): 11-1
Massachusetts: 10-2
Miami (OH) suffered their first conference loss of the season on the road to Massachusetts this past week, while Ball State went 2-0 to take over the top spot in the standings. This upcoming week will be a critical week for all three of these teams as they look to jockey for the top spot in the conference. This conference race is extremely closely knit, but with certain results this week, it could start to show quite the separation.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-18: Central Michigan @ Miami (OH)
2-18: Toledo @ Massachusetts
2-21: Ball State @ Miami (OH)
The biggest game of the week in the conference will be the Saturday tilt between Ball State and Miami (OH). If Ball State wins that game, then they grab control of the MAC tightly. If Miami (OH) is able to go 2-0 this week, then they will have solid control of the conference. Then you have Massachusetts, who, with a loss, will be eliminated from contention. Ball State cannot clinch the top spot this week, but they can give themselves a 99% chance or better to win it with two wins and some other results falling their way.
Mid-Eastern Atlantic Conference (MEAC)
Howard: 9-1
Norfolk State: 8-2
As I said last week, the race is much clearer this week thanks to two losses by Maryland Eastern Shore. The formula is simple for Howard going forward: win games. Both of these teams should go 1-0 this week, which will set us up for a clash between the two in the last game of the year that will mean something.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-21: North Carolina Central @ Howard
I had to pick a game. That's why this is here.
Missouri Valley (MVC)
Murray State: 13-1
Belmont: 12-2
As long as Murray State doesn't go 0-2 this week while Belmont goes 2-0, this conference race will heavily skew towards Murray State. There is a world where Murray State can essentially lock up the #1 seed and the conference title if they go 2-0 while Belmont goes 0-2. Alas, Murray State is in a great position right now.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-20: Murray State @ Bradley
2-20: Belmont @ Illinois State
2-22: Murray State @ Illinois State
2-22: Belmont @ Bradley
The only thing that will change the #1 seed race much is a 2-0 week by Belmont and a 0-2 week by Murray State. Heck, even if both Bradley and Illinois State go 2-0 against the pair this week, they will still only have a combined 4.6% chance to grab the top seed.
Mountain West (MWC)
San Diego State: 14-1
UNLV: 12-3
Well, a week after this conference race was extremely crowded, it is crowded no more. Colorado State went 1-1, Boise State went 1-1, and UNLV went 1-1 as San Diego State just continues to chug along. They now have a 95.3% chance to win the Mountain West, and they could clinch it this week.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-18: UNLV @ San Diego State
This is the biggest game of the week in the Mountain West. A win by San Diego State all but mathematically locks up the Mountain West, while a win by UNLV would cut the chances down to just 86.9% for a San Diego State #1 seed. All eyes will be on this one, as the race could be over, or there might start to be a sliver of hope for others.
NEC (It Doesn't Stand for Anything Anymore)
Fairleigh Dickinson: 13-0
Fairleigh Dickinson has a 99.1% chance to take the #1 seed and win the conference tournament. Let's see where we stand after this week, but I am assuming it will be the same remarks next week. LIU is two games back right now, but they can't make up ground if the team in first doesn't lose.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-21: Mercyhurst @ LIU
Again, both Fairleigh Dickinson and LIU should win both their games this week, and this is the game on the calendar that has an outside shot at being an upset.
OVC (Ohio Valley Conference)
Western Illinois: 13-3
Lindenwood: 12-4
Southern Indiana: 12-4
Morehead State took the loss last week that I said would knock them out of contention, so we now have a three-team race. It's still too close to call with five games to go for each of the teams. However, this week we will see a head-to-head game that will provide clarity.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-19: Southern Indiana @ Western Illinois
2-21: Morehead State @ Western Illinois
The first game above is an elimination game for Southern Indiana. If they lose, they are out of the discussion for the top seed in the tournament. If Western Illinois ends up 2-0 this week, then they'll be in great shape for the top seed but will still have to play Lindenwood twice in a span of two days to end the season. A 1-1 week by Western Illinois will make the last week extremely fun.
Patriot
Navy: 12-1
Army: 11-3
The Patriot League has been a tight battle between Navy and Army all season, but this week will be the week where we find clarity. The second meeting between Navy and Army takes place, and Navy has a chance to win the game to clinch the #1 seed and the conference title this week.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-18: Navy @ Lehigh
2-21: Navy @ Army
Assuming Army beats their first opponent this week, we might be in store for a clinching game on Saturday. Navy needs to beat Lehigh, and then they are able to clinch the #1 seed and the Patriot title with a win against Army. If Navy loses to Lehigh and then loses to Army, then Army will take control of the conference. Navy can't look past their first game of the week.
Sun Belt
Troy: 12-2
Georgia Southern: 12-2
Marshall: 12-3
Arkansas State: 11-3
This is essentially a race between Troy and Georgia Southern, barring something unfortunate happening. Just seven days ago, Arkansas State was in full control of the Sun Belt and looked to create some distance between them and the teams below them as they sat atop the conference at 11-1. However, two losses in a row and they are now at a point in the season where they need a lot of help to recover and take the #1 seed. Georgia Southern and Troy each have a 40% or higher chance to win the conference, and this week will be big for the eventual winner as Georgia Southern currently holds the tiebreaker.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-19: Marshall @ Georgia Southern
Only one game with a lot of meaning this week. Georgia Southern can take full control of the conference with a win here and eliminate Marshall from contention in the process. The other teams all play games that they should win easily.
Southern
Chattanooga: 8-2
Wofford: 8-3
Furman: 8-3
Chattanooga still is the very heavy favorite with four games remaining even though they lost their only game last week. Chattanooga has two fairly easy games this week, while Wofford and Furman each play two tough games.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-19: Samford @ Furman
2-19: Mercer @ Wofford
2-21: Mercer @ Furman
It's pretty simple this week, as it was last week. Both Furman and Wofford have to win both of their games this week. If they lose one and Chattanooga sweeps their two games, then Chattanooga can clinch the #1 seed and the conference title this week.
SEC
South Carolina: 11-1
I do not need as many words for the SEC as I needed last week. South Carolina has numerous clinching scenarios this week for both the SEC title and the top seed in the SEC tournament.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-19: South Carolina @ Alabama
2-22: Ole Miss @ South Carolina
I'm going to disregard every other game in the SEC this week because if South Carolina wins both of these games this week, then they will clinch the #1 seed in the conference tournament. They will potentially also be playing for the regular season title clincher on Saturday.
Southwest Athletic Conference (SWAC)
Alabama A&M: 12-1
Alcorn State: 11-2
Similar to last week, the #1 seed and conference title will come down to these two teams. Alabama A&M holds the tiebreaker for the top seed over Alcorn State, and they can nearly clinch the top seed this week.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-19: Alabama A&M @ Florida A&M
2-19: Alabama A&M @ Bethune Cookman
2-21: Jackson State @ Alcorn State
Alabama A&M should win both of their games this week, which will give them at least a two-game lead on the #1 seed with three games to play. Alcorn State just has the one game this week, but it won't be an easy one.
Southland
McNeese State: 16-1
McNeese State has full control and can clinch the Southland this week.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-19: UTRGV @ McNeese State
McNeese State can clinch the outright Southland title and the #1 seed in the conference tournament with a win in this game. If UTRGV wins, then the probability of a McNeese State #1 seed will drop all the way from 99.9% to 99.6%. Good luck, UTRGV.
Summit
North Dakota State: 12-0
South Dakota: 10-2
South Dakota State: 10-2
North Dakota State is staring at a 96.4% chance to win the conference. North Dakota State will beat St. Thomas this week, and then that sets up a game for them to clinch the top seed in the Summit League tournament with a win over South Dakota on Saturday.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-21: North Dakota State @ South Dakota
Barring a monumental upset this week, North Dakota State will be playing South Dakota in hopes of clinching the top seed in the postseason tournament. If they do go 2-0 this week, that also locks up a Summit League regular season title, as they will not be losing to North Dakota the following week.
Western Athletic Conference (WAC)
Cal Baptist: 11-2
Abilene Christian: 10-3
This is a neck-and-neck race, as Abilene Christian has a 48.9% chance to win the top seed and Cal Baptist has a 47.2% chance to win the top seed. There won't be much clarity this week, as both teams will only play one game.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-18: Utah Valley @ Cal Baptist
2-22: Abilene Christian @ Southern Utah
A win by Abilene Christian and a loss by Cal Baptist this week would hand Abilene Christian full control of the conference race. A Cal Baptist win and an Abilene Christian loss would give the edge to Cal Baptist, but they still would have four extremely competitive games remaining.
West Coast Conference (WCC)
Gonzaga: 11-3
Loyola Marymount: 11-3
Santa Clara: 10-4
Oregon State: 10-4
One more week closer to the finish line, and one more week of not knowing anything about how this conference is going to end up. Gonzaga and Loyola Marymount are the clear leaders now for the top seed, but Santa Clara is sitting there with a 12.6% chance. Heck, Portland at 9-5 technically has a 0.1% chance to win the top seed. Maybe we will see some more clarity after another week of play? It's kind of crazy that Loyola Marymount is tied for the lead with four games to go but could still end up with the #6 seed in the conference tournament.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-19: Portland @ Oregon State
2-21: Santa Clara @ Pepperdine
Both Gonzaga and Loyola Marymount have easy schedules this week, which means that we are likely going to be sitting in the exact same spot of not knowing anything again next week. Santa Clara and Oregon State are both playing elimination games for the #1 seed in the conference tournament.
