As we are now closing in on the end of the season and the start of postseason play, I thought that it would be beneficial to take a look conference by conference and figure out who is closing in on winning their regular season conference title, as well as the very valuable conference tournament #1 seed (more valuable in some conferences than others, looking at you, WCC).
I'll take a quick look at each of the 31 conferences in the order they are listed on BartTorvik, so if you are interested in any specific conference or team at the top of a conference, please feel free to CTRL+F now!
As a bit of a precursor, I'm going to assume that if a team is four games back at this point in the season, they won't be going on a hot streak to win the conference. For example, in the first conference up we have 8-4 Loyola Chicago, who is four games behind Rhode Island. It is very unlikely that Loyola Chicago wins their last six games and all three of the teams in front of them lose 4-5 of their remaining six. However, if the gap closes to 2-3 games next week, then Loyola Chicago will certainly get a mention.
Accordingly, upsets do happen. Sometimes the eighth-best team in the conference knocks off the top team in the conference. But for the sole reason of not making myself list out every single game that each team plays, I'm going to assume that they beat the teams that they should beat...and if they don't, we can discuss it the next week!
Let's get after it.
Atlantic 10
Rhode Island: 10-0
Richmond: 10-1
George Mason: 10-1
You can be fairly certain that the #1 seed in the A10 conference tournament will be bestowed onto one of these three teams. Rhode Island has been a bit of a surprise this season, having already beaten Richmond and Davidson, although both of those games were on Rhode Island's home floor. Richmond's one blemish is against Rhode Island, but they will still meet them on their home floor this season. Richmond is coming off of a big win against George Mason to end up in a current tie for second place with them. George Mason, as just mentioned, lost over the weekend to Richmond as their only blemish.
This conference race is going to come down to avoiding losses to teams who are not in this grouping by each of the three teams. If each team can take care of business the rest of the season, then the individual matchups are going to be huge. Even bigger is that there are still chances for each of these teams to get at-large bids, and a slip-up against a non-top 3 team could spell the end of those chances.
Richmond has the toughest remaining schedule in the A10, while George Mason's is the fourth toughest, and Rhode Island's is the fifth toughest. A lot of that is due to the fact that they each play each other again this year (or for the first and only time in the case of George Mason and Rhode Island), but as mentioned before, a slip-up against a non-top 3 team will be tough to recover from.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-14: Rhode Island @ George Mason
2-16: Richmond @ George Mason
Two big games in the conference race this week as both Rhode Island and Richmond travel to face George Mason on their home floor. This is a big opportunity for George Mason, as notching two wins might give them the upper hand in the conference race, while dropping both might take them out of it completely.
ACC
Duke: 13-0
Louisville: 12-1
Barring an incredible collapse by both of these teams, you can safely assume that the #1 seed will be handed to one of these two programs. On December 14th, after losing their fourth game in a row, how many people thought that in mid-February Duke would be unbeaten in the ACC? Duke does have the advantage over Louisville right now due to the head-to-head matchup that Duke won last week. Despite being just one game behind Duke, Louisville needs to hope for Duke to lose twice the rest of the year, as Duke holds the tiebreaker for the #1 seed (H2H). That means that Duke does have a bit of cushion if they do end up losing a game this season. The path for Louisville to overtake Duke will be to certainly win their remaining games and hope that Duke ends up falling in two of their last five. Duke certainly does have the ability to trip up a bit coming to the finish line, as they have the fourth toughest remaining schedule in the ACC, and Louisville will be favored by double digits in each of their remaining games. NC State and North Carolina are both sitting with three losses already, so it's tough to see them making a push unless both of these teams really fumble down the stretch.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-15: North Carolina @ Duke
A potential spot for a sneaky Duke upset. This would put Louisville right back in contention, as Duke's four games following this are not going to be cakewalks. But Louisville has to be hoping for a Duke loss in this one.
America East
Binghamton: 9-1
Vermont: 9-2
Maine: 8-3
This is an incredibly tight race in the America East, as there are three teams with three losses or less. Binghamton, on paper, is the fourth-best team in the conference per BartTorvik, but they have enjoyed wins over both Maine and Vermont at home. They still need to play them on the road, which might not bring the same results. Vermont split the season series with Maine and still has to play Binghamton at home coming up this week. Maine suffered a tough loss to Bryant early in the conference slate, which might have taken them out of contention for the America East title, along with the two losses to Binghamton and Vermont. There are a ton of teams who are close in ability, but these three have separated themselves a little bit. Vermont seems to be the strongest team with an adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency in the Top 140, while Maine and Binghamton are both well behind them in the metrics.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-12: Binghamton @ Vermont
2-12: Maine @ UMBC
2-14: Maine @ NJIT
2-14: Vermont @ Bryant
2-14: Binghamton @ Albany
As I mentioned above, all of these teams are very close together in both talent and the metrics. All of the games listed are projected to be within a few points, besides Binghamton @ Vermont which is an 11-point spread currently in Vermont's favor. This week is going to clear up a lot in the America East, and a 0-2 week by anyone likely takes them out of contention.
Atlantic Sun
Eastern Kentucky: 12-0
The first conference race that doesn't need many words! Eastern Kentucky has gotten through Atlantic Sun play so far this season 12-0 and is winning most of their games rather convincingly. The four teams behind them all have four losses, so Eastern Kentucky would have to lose five of their last six while one of those teams won each of their remaining games to end the season. I just don't see that happening.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-12: Central Arkansas @ Eastern Kentucky
Just win this game against Central Arkansas at home, a team you've already beaten by 10 at their place, and you pretty much lock up the conference title on Thursday.
American
Rice: 10-0
East Carolina: 9-2
Tulsa: 8-3
The top five of the American are all very good teams, and this conference is an example of something I spoke about in the opener. Depending on what happens this week, you could definitely see South Florida (7-4) or North Texas (7-4) added to the list of contenders next week. Rice has given themselves a nice little cushion at the top of the league so far this year as they sit at 10-0. Their schedule does get fairly tough as they play the third hardest schedule in the conference the rest of the season. East Carolina is in an interesting spot, as they have the fourth easiest schedule remaining this season and could catch fire to end the season. However, the caveat with that is the fact that they had the second easiest schedule so far and still lost two games. The chances that they finish the year with only two conference losses are not great. Then, that leaves us with Tulsa. They've played the easiest schedule so far, but now their last seven games are the toughest in the conference. I actually wouldn't be surprised at all if Tulsa and South Florida swap places in the list above after this week.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-10: North Texas @ Rice
2-10: East Carolina @ Tulane
2-11: Tulsa @ South Florida
2-14: East Carolina @ Temple
2-14: South Florida @ UTSA
2-14: Tulsa @ Florida Atlantic
As you can see, there are a lot of games with meaning tied to them this week. Rice has one game of consequence this week, and if they beat North Texas, then they will start to feel very good. For Rice's sake, they'd love to see these teams all beat up on each other, but if East Carolina can go 2-0 this week, then we will have a fun finish to the year. A single loss this week by Tulsa, South Florida, or North Texas would all but mathematically eliminate them from conference title contention.
Big 10
UCLA: 13-0
With UCLA's win on the road at Michigan, they have pretty much locked up the #1 seed in the Big 10. They aren't finishing the Big 10 slate by only winning two of their last five games. No way. Congrats, UCLA!
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-11: UCLA @ Michigan State
I mean, I feel like I just have to put a game here. Michigan State could improve Michigan's chances of winning the Big Ten by .001% to .002% with a win here over UCLA.
Big 12
Baylor: 10-2
West Virginia: 10-3
TCU: 9-3
Texas Tech: 9-3
Oklahoma State: 8-4
Thanks to TCU losing to both Texas Tech and Colorado in the past eight days, the Big 12 is pretty wide open right now. Somehow, after looking like a bit of a jumbled mess early in the season, Baylor is the lone two-loss team in the Big 12. Of these five teams, I'd imagine that Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are the two least likely to win the conference, as they have the two toughest schedules remaining for the conference season. The winner of the Big 12 will likely need to be 15-3 at the end of the season to win the conference outright, or potentially 14-4 depending on how things shake out. There is a ton that can still happen, but it seems like the two teams with the best inside track to win the conference are West Virginia and TCU, unless Baylor goes on an insane run and beats TCU twice. So much can happen here in the next three weeks.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-10: Oklahoma State @ Kansas State
2-12: TCU @ Baylor
2-14: Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State
2-15: West Virginia @ TCU
To stay in the race, Oklahoma State pretty much needs to have a 2-0 week this week. TCU can flip the Big 12 race upside down with a pair of wins that would put them in a tie at the top with Texas Tech. Baylor could solidify their spot at the top of the Big 12 with a win at home against TCU this week. Texas Tech has the toughest remaining conference schedule, so they will need to beat Oklahoma State in what you could almost see as an elimination game.
Big East
UConn: 14-0
UConn is not losing the Big East.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-15: Villanova @ Creighton
If Villanova loses this game, then their loss to UConn the following week means that UConn will officially clinch the Big East title at that time (provided Villanova also beats Xavier this week).
Big Sky
Idaho: 10-1
Montana State: 10-2
Idaho has the current sole lead in the Big Sky thanks to splitting the season series with Montana State. Montana State suffered a tough loss to Idaho State a month ago that has pushed them to second in the conference. It seems like a two-team race right now, although Idaho State could find themselves in the mix if they go 2-0 this week. Idaho will likely need to win out or hope that Montana State slips up in another game because the tiebreaker would come down to who is higher in the NET rankings, which would be Montana State by a wide margin. Idaho holds their conference fate in their own hands right now.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-14: Idaho @ Idaho State
This is by far Idaho's toughest remaining game. Montana State will be rooting for Idaho State hard in this Valentine's Day game. If Idaho loses this one, they are going to need Montana State to drop another game somewhere, which at this point, kind of looks unlikely.
Big South
High Point: 10-1
Longwood: 8-2
Radford: 8-3
High Point looked to be in full control of the Big South until a loss over the weekend to Radford. Now, things could potentially get interesting. Likely not, as High Point is favored by 12 or more points in their remaining games, but if they take a loss this week against Longwood, then things will really heat up. I expect that High Point likely takes care of business in the rest of conference play, but Longwood does have an interesting schedule to finish the season. Radford likely needs to win out to have a shot at the conference title and the top seed.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-11: Longwood @ High Point
2-14 Longwood @ Winthrop
The biggest game left of the Big South season comes to us on Wednesday as Longwood travels to High Point. This is a must-win for Longwood if they want to have any chance at a regular season title. If they do knock off High Point, then the game at Winthrop will be exceptionally important, as they can't relax during that one. Essentially, Longwood needs to go 2-0 this week for the Big South title to be in question.
Big West
UC San Diego: 12-1
UC Irvine: 10-2
UC Davis: 10-3
Cal State Fullerton: 10-3
The Big West is pretty much down to either UC San Diego or UC Irvine at this point in the year. Both UC Davis and Cal State Fullerton have offensive and defensive efficiencies outside of the Top 130, whereas UC Irvine is Top 81 in both metrics, and UC San Diego sits at #73 in the country defensively. UC Irvine is the best team on paper, and they also have the easiest schedule remaining this year, so everything might be breaking in their favor. With about seven games to go for each of the teams, whoever ends their season at three losses or less has to feel pretty good about their chances.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-12: UC San Diego @ UC Davis
2-14 UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton
These will nearly be elimination games for both UC Davis and Cal State Fullerton. If each of these two programs loses, they'll each have four losses on the season, and the ground with five games will be too high to make up. If either of them wins, then things will get very tight in the Big West.
Coastal Athletic Association (CAA)
Charleston: 11-0
Stony Brook: 8-2
Monmouth: 8-3
Campbell 8-3
Charleston seems to be in full control so far this year in the CAA. They currently are a perfect 11-0 on the year, and in their last seven games, they are favored by double figures in six of them. Charleston also has the second easiest schedule the rest of the season, which gives them another leg up. If Stony Brook is able to win out and hope that Charleston slips up prior to their matchup this year, then they have a very outside shot. Monmouth and Campbell are both 8-3 this season but will need to run the table if they want to have a shot at this point in the year.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-13: Stony Brook @ Monmouth
2-15: Charleston @ Monmouth
2-15: Stony Brook @ Northeastern
We are at the point where Charleston has built such a lead in the conference this year that every game can be looked at as an elimination game just due to the number of games left in the year. If Stony Brook goes 0-2 and Charleston beats Monmouth this week, I think you'll be able to consider this regular season conference title over and hand the #1 seed to Charleston.
Conference USA (CUSA)
Louisiana Tech: 10-1
Missouri State: 7-3
Sam Houston State: 7-3
Louisiana Tech is in full control of the CUSA race this year. Their only loss this season was to Sam Houston State in their first conference game of the season, and since that time, they've rattled off 10 wins in a row. Missouri State and Sam Houston State need to essentially win out this season to have an outside shot at taking home a conference title. The only issue with that is that they still have to play each other twice this season. If Louisiana Tech can get through this week unscathed, they'll be able to watch everyone below them take each other out.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-12: Missouri State @ Sam Houston State
2-14: Missouri State @ Louisiana Tech
2-14: FIU @ Sam Houston State
You can essentially say that the CUSA can be all but locked up this week. If Louisiana Tech takes care of business in their two games and Sam Houston goes 1-1, that would give Louisiana Tech a three-game lead with five games left, and they'd hold all the tiebreakers, essentially making it a four-game lead with five games to play. If you are a Missouri State or Sam Houston State fan, you absolutely must win that Thursday game.
Horizon
Green Bay: 15-0
Green Bay has already secured the #1 seed in the Horizon League tournament and a share of the Horizon League title by virtue of beating Youngstown State twice. Youngstown State could share the title by winning their last five and Green Bay losing their last five. Not going to happen.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-11: Green Bay @ Cleveland State
Let's go with this one. A Green Bay win would give them sole ownership of the Horizon League title.
Ivy
Princeton: 7-1
Harvard: 6-2
Columbia: 6-2
Once again we have a three-team race in the Ivy League. Princeton fell to 7-1 in conference after suffering a defeat against Columbia on their home court and still needs to play both Columbia and Harvard again, both on the road. Columbia had a great shot to win the Ivy League, and still does, but losses to Cornell and Penn have not been great. Their saving grace is that they've already beaten Harvard and Princeton on the road, so they should have a ton of confidence when they meet them on their home floor. Harvard has losses to both Columbia and Princeton this year and ends the season playing them in back-to-back games. If Harvard can get to February 28th with two conference losses, they could cause some issues in the Ivy League race.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-13: Princeton @ Columbia
The biggest game of the year for Columbia. A win would give them the tiebreaker over Princeton, while a loss would put them two games behind the leader. After this game, the conference race might get a bit clearer, or it could become exceptionally muddied with all of the potential results.
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC)
Quinnipiac: 15-0
Fairfield: 14-1
Both of these teams have played once this season, and I am under the assumption that they will not lose to another team in the conference besides each other. They play again this week and then will have a clear picture of what to root for coming down the stretch.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-14: Fairfield @ Quinnipiac
This is a simple game. If Fairfield wins, they will very likely share the MAAC regular season title with Quinnipiac. The #1 seed in the conference tournament will then be a mess, as both of these teams are very likely to finish at 19-1 in conference play. If Quinnipiac wins, then it's all a moot point. The tiebreaker for the #1 seed in the conference tournament would fall onto who has the better winning percentage against the #3 team in the conference. It seems highly likely that Merrimack will be #3 at the end of the year and that tiebreaker would go to Quinnipiac, as they've played them twice, while Fairfield has only seen them once this year. So, regardless of this result, there's nearly a 99% chance that Quinnipiac ends up as the #1 seed. The game is essentially for a shared or outright conference title, barring an insane upset of one of these two teams by someone else.
Mid-American Conference (MAC)
Miami (OH): 10-0
Ball State: 10-1
Massachusetts: 8-2
The MAC has been highly competitive so far this season, and the race to the end will be fascinating to watch. Miami (OH) currently sits with an unblemished record and has already beaten both the teams below them this season. However, they have the third toughest schedule in the conference to end the season. Ball State has the loss to Miami (OH) this year, and that is it for them in conference play. They are in a good spot right now because if they take care of business the next week, then they will be right in the thick of things while holding the tiebreaker over Massachusetts. Speaking of Massachusetts, they will essentially need to win out to win the #1 seed since they've already lost to both of the teams ahead of them in the standings.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-14: Miami (OH) @ Massachusetts
This might essentially be an elimination game for Massachusetts, as with a loss, they would need Miami (OH) to lose four of their last six games. I don't see that happening at this point in the season, so a Miami (OH) win would cut the battle for the #1 seed down to just them and Ball State, who plays a pair of games this week that they should win. Ball State fans need to root for Massachusetts to pull the upset.
Mid-Eastern Atlantic Conference (MEAC)
Howard: 7-1
Maryland Eastern Shore: 7-1
Norfolk State: 6-2
The race for the #1 seed in the MEAC tournament and the outright MEAC conference title is certainly down to these three teams. Howard probably has the upper hand right now, as they have the second easiest schedule the rest of the way. The race should become much more clear after this week, as the teams all face off this week in various matchups.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-12: Norfolk State @ Maryland Eastern Shore
2-14: Maryland Eastern Shore @ Howard
It's fairly cut and dry this week in the MEAC, provided that each team wins the games that they should win the rest of the season outside of these three teams. If Maryland Eastern Shore loses both of their games this week, they are likely out of contention. If they win both of their games, they are the new favorite going into the last two weeks of the season. A loss by Norfolk State likely takes them out of contention regardless of other results. The recipe is simple for Howard this week: win.
Missouri Valley (MVC)
Murray State: 11-1
Belmont: 10-2
Murray State and Belmont are the only two teams in the conference with less than four losses, and thus, they are the two teams fighting for the #1 seed in the conference tournament. Murray State has the upper hand right now, as they have been Belmont's only two losses thus far, so they hold the tiebreaker over them for the #1 seed. Belmont still has a chance at winning the #1 seed, but they will absolutely need to not lose another game this season to give themselves a chance.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-13: Illinois Chicago @ Belmont
2-15: Illinois Chicago @ Murray State
There really aren't any games in the Missouri Valley this week that will play into the #1 seed or conference title chances. Now, if Belmont or Murray State loses to Illinois Chicago in an upset this week, that will change the entire equation. If either of these teams doesn't go 2-0 this week, something bad has happened.
Mountain West (MWC)
San Diego State: 12-1
UNLV: 11-2
Boise State: 10-3
Colorado State: 9-4
The Mountain West is full of talent and has been very competitive so far this season. I think the winner of the conference will be somewhere in the 3-4 loss range, so that makes all of these teams contenders still. San Diego State had a tough loss last week against Grand Canyon but are favored in all of their remaining games. UNLV has a real chance to make some movement in the conference standings as long as they can get through the next two weeks without a loss before the tough end to the season. Boise State and Colorado State were only scheduled to play once this season, a Boise State win. So Boise State has the upper hand on Colorado State right now and is a game ahead of them. Colorado State can't suffer another loss, or their hopes of a #1 seed and a Mountain West title are probably done.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-11: Colorado State @ San Diego State
2-11: Boise State @ Fresno State
2-14: Colorado State @ New Mexico
It's a big week for Colorado State as they are now needing to win every game they play and have their two toughest remaining games of the year this week. A win over San Diego State would be huge for everyone in the Mountain West, as it would pull them down closer to the pack. Boise State likely can't suffer a loss to Fresno State, or they would be all but out of the race. Don't count out an upset coming from a game not listed to shake things up.
NEC (It Doesn't Stand for Anything Anymore)
Fairleigh Dickinson: 12-0
LIU: 10-2
This conference race is all but wrapped up at this point in the year with six games remaining. Fairleigh Dickinson has not lost a game yet this season and is a heavy favorite in every remaining game. LIU does get one more shot at Fairleigh Dickinson, but LIU will need to win their remaining games and hope that Fairleigh Dickinson loses an additional game. It's going to be a tough, tough road for LIU to overtake the #1 spot.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-14: New Haven @ LIU
Both Fairleigh Dickinson and LIU should both win their games this week, and on paper, the game above should be the closest that either team plays this week. LIU is favored by 13 points and should be able to win comfortably.
OVC (Ohio Valley Conference)
Western Illinois: 11-3
Lindenwood: 10-4
Southern Indiana: 10-4
Morehead State: 10-4
Thanks to Tennessee State, the OVC is wide open once again this year. Western Illinois looked to be in full control prior to a loss this past week to the last-place team in the conference. This week, they should have two games they win easily, but if last week proved anything, no one is safe. Western Illinois, Lindenwood, and Southern Indiana all have two games this week that they should win fairly easily, while Morehead State has a tough one on deck. Judging by the schedule, it doesn't seem like there will be much clarity in the OVC until the last two weeks of the season.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-12: Tennessee Tech @ Morehead State
Of the top 4 teams, this is the only game that looks to be a single-digit spread on paper. Morehead State needs to go 2-0 this week, as they have an extremely tough end to the season. Provided we don't get more upsets in the other games, a loss by Morehead State would knock them out of contention.
Patriot
Navy: 10-1
Army: 9-3
It sure seems like the race for the Patriot League is down to just Army and Navy this season. Navy has the edge, as they are two games up on Army right now, and they also hold the tiebreaker over Army at the current time, with still one game to go this season between the two. Army is favored in all of their remaining games this year and will need some help if they want to overtake Navy for the conference lead. Even if they beat Navy in a few weeks, they still need Navy to drop an additional game. Army and Navy are favored in both their matchups this week by double digits, with Navy being favored by 20 or more points in each.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-11: Army @ Boston University
Army is only a 10-point favorite in this game on paper, but they still have an 89% chance to win the game. As long as they aren't tripped up by Boston this week, it will set up a big week for Army the following week.
Sun Belt
Arkansas State: 11-1
Troy: 10-2
Georgia Southern: 10-2
Marshall: 10-3
James Madison: 9-4
The Sun Belt is one of the deepest mid-major conferences in the country, and it's proven with five teams being in the mix with two weeks to go. There could be a ton of words about the Sun Belt and the positioning of each team, but everyone seemingly still has to play each other down the stretch. This upcoming week is going to be huge for every team in the Sun Belt, as a 2-0 week could raise their chances of winning a conference title in the regular season greatly. With seven or so games to go for each team in the conference, I'll be operating under the assumption that the winner of the conference will be sitting at 15-3. James Madison could go 2-0 this week and still drop out of the hunt because it is so crowded at the top of the league.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-11: Arkansas State @ Georgia Southern
2-14: Arkansas State @ Marshall
Each team in the top 5 of the Sun Belt has two games this week, but both Troy and James Madison's games are against teams in the bottom half of the league. This is a huge week for Arkansas State, as they could fall from the lead in the Sun Belt all the way to fourth in the conference. All of these teams still battle with each other over the next few weeks, but a 2-0 week by Arkansas State would give them a huge advantage. Watch for some upsets in the league that could spell trouble for the top of the league.
Southern
Chattanooga: 8-1
Wofford: 6-3
Furman: 6-3
East Tennessee State: 5-3
I have listed four teams here, but I think Chattanooga is certainly the heavy favorite to win the Southern Conference. Chattanooga has already won two games against Furman and has beaten East Tennessee State already once this season. They split with Wofford after dropping their first conference game over the weekend. With only five games to go for three of these teams, it would take a pretty big collapse and a huge hot streak for anyone to overtake Chattanooga.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-10: Mercer @ East Tennessee State
2-12: Wofford @ UNC Greensboro
2-14: East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga
2-14: Furman @ UNC Greensboro
It's pretty simple this week. Nearly everyone, except for Chattanooga, is playing elimination games for the rest of the season. East Tennessee State has two tough games this week, while both Wofford and Furman will be road underdogs at UNC Greensboro. Chattanooga could win their lone game of the week and be sitting with a three-game lead with four games to go. They can essentially lock up the #1 seed this week by the looks of it. The only way that things could get very fun is if East Tennessee State went 2-0 and then Furman and Wofford swept their games this week. Unlikely, but we can hope for some chaos.
SEC
South Carolina: 10-1
Vanderbilt: 9-2
Texas 8-2
LSU: 8-3
As a precursor to the SEC, I am only including teams that are predicted to lose four or fewer games as of this point in time in the SEC. Tennessee and Ole Miss might have three or fewer losses on the season, but for simplicity's sake, I am listing the four most likely teams to end with four or fewer losses per BartTorvik. I am also operating under the assumption that the SEC winner will likely be no worse than a three-loss team. That assumption puts South Carolina firmly in the driver's seat in the SEC. As long as they are able to take down LSU on the road this week, they would be the heavy favorite to win the conference, and I'm not sure I wouldn't crown them SEC champs with a win on Saturday. Vanderbilt still has a bit of a gauntlet remaining as they face off with five top 30 teams over their last five games. Texas has a good chance to win their remaining games, but South Carolina holds the tiebreaker over Texas currently. LSU needs to win their remaining games and hope that some of the teams slip in front of them.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-12: Texas @ Vanderbilt
2-14: South Carolina @ LSU
2-15: Vanderbilt @ Georgia
South Carolina could all but lock up the SEC #1 seed with a win against LSU. They will gain a game on either Vanderbilt or Texas since they face off this week, and South Carolina holds the tiebreaker over both of them if there is a tie in the standings for the #1 seed. After we get through this week, the battle for the SEC should be fairly clear.
Southwest Athletic Conference (SWAC)
Alabama A&M: 10-1
Alcorn State: 9-2
Barring a collapse by both of these teams, the SWAC winner will be decided between Alabama A&M and Alcorn State. Alabama A&M holds the tiebreaker over Alcorn State by virtue of their 42-point win early in the season. But, if the SWAC has shown us anything this year, it's that anyone can spring an upset. Alabama A&M dropped the first game of conference play to Mississippi Valley State, who is currently 3-7 in the SWAC. Alcorn State is coming off of a loss to Arkansas Pine Bluff (6-5) this past week to put them a game out of the lead. Alcorn State does have the easiest remaining schedule in the conference, but Alabama A&M's is the third easiest.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-12: Florida A&M @ Alcorn State
This might be a trap game as Alcorn State comes off of a loss this past week. Alabama A&M doesn't play anyone overly tough this week, and Alcorn State is in survival mode as they almost cannot drop another game this season. If Alcorn State loses one of their two games this week, then Alabama State is sitting very pretty.
Southland
McNeese State: 14-1
UTRGV: 12-3
So, here's the deal with the Southland: McNeese State is ahead of UTRGV by only two games in the standings, but the schedule sets up too well for McNeese State to see them falling out of first place. They are heads and shoulders above anyone else in the conference right now, and of their remaining seven games, six are thought to be 92% or better chances for a McNeese State win. If UTRGV is able to beat both Lamar and Stephen F. Austin this week, then I'll add them into being a true contender. However, it seems like McNeese State is going to roll through the conference.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-12: Lamar @ UTRGV
2-14: Stephen F. Austin @ UTRGV
As I mentioned above, UTGRV can't lose either of these games, or they fall three games back of McNeese State, and it's just too big of a hole to dig out from. I suspect that I'll be "crowning" McNeese State the champions at this time next week.
Summit
North Dakota State: 11-0
South Dakota: 9-2
South Dakota State: 9-2
This is certainly not a lock that North Dakota State wins the conference, but it sure is looking like it will probably happen. They have already beaten both South Dakota and South Dakota State this season and play them each once more. Luckily for them, South Dakota and South Dakota State also play again this season, meaning that one of the two South Dakota schools will gather an additional loss. It's a safe bet that none of these three will lose to any other Summit League team this season other than themselves. Neither of these teams should lose this week, and so we will be in the exact same spot next week, standings-wise.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-12: UMKC @ South Dakota
I had to pick a game, and this is the only game per BartTorvik between the three that is projected to be inside of a 20-point game. South Dakota isn't losing this one.
Western Athletic Conference (WAC)
Cal Baptist: 10-1
Abilene Christian: 8-3
The WAC schools have essentially been beating each other up all season long, and Cal Baptist and Abilene Christian are the two who have emerged from the pack. Cal Baptist and Abilene Christian have split their season series so far but still have a third conference game to play thanks to a funky conference schedule this year after Grand Canyon left the conference. The conference is extremely competitive, and it doesn't seem like these top two teams have been able to win convincingly, much setting things up for a great finish down the stretch. I do think the winner can win the WAC outright at 15-3 and maybe even 14-4, making every game important for Cal Baptist and even more important for Abilene Christian.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-12: Southern Utah @ Cal Baptist
2-12: Abilene Christian @ UT Arlington
2-14: Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State
Abilene Christian has two games on the schedule that they can certainly lose on the road this week, while Cal Baptist has just one tough game this week. A 2-0 week by Cal Baptist along with a rough week by Abilene Christian might just seal the deal in Cal Baptist's favor. Anything can happen in the WAC, as we have seen so far this season. A fourth loss by Abilene Christian would likely spell the end of their #1 seed hopes.
West Coast Conference (WCC)
Gonzaga: 10-2
Oregon State: 9-3
Loyola Marymount: 9-3
Santa Clara: 8-4
Portland: 8-4
If I am being 100% honest, I think that the WCC is going to be won outright by whoever can finish 15-3 or better. If the leader is at 14-4, there will likely be some company, and it will come down to tiebreakers to see who hosts. The WCC has the ladder format in their conference tournament, as the #1 and #2 seeds both only need to win two games to win the conference title. The fight for the #3 and #4 seeds will be just as important with how the bracket is set up. The difference between the #2 seed and the #5 seed is two fewer games to win the WCC conference title. Santa Clara and Portland cannot afford another loss this season, or they are out of contention for the #1 seed. Loyola Marymount is tied for second right now but is projected to lose two of their last five games. Oregon State is favored in all of their remaining games, but those wins aren't going to come easy at all. Gonzaga is in the lead, and they have the easiest remaining schedule this season, as they don't have to play Oregon State or Santa Clara again.
Meaningful Games to Watch This Week
2-12: Oregon State @ Santa Clara
2-14: Gonzaga @ Loyola Marymount
2-14: Santa Clara @ Portland
As I mentioned above, Santa Clara and Portland cannot suffer another loss this season, or they will be pushed too far down the standings to make up ground. Gonzaga fans will be rooting for a win but will also be rooting for Santa Clara to knock off Oregon State, giving Gonzaga two games of breathing room. One thing is for sure: there won't be five teams on the WCC list next week.
