Despite trailing by five in the second half of the semifinals and by 11 in the second half of the title game, top-seeded Wright State is headed to the NCAA Tournament as the Horizon League representative...

Wright State earned the No. 1 seed at the Horizon League Tournament after a 15-5 intra-league record meant winning the regular-season conference title by two games. After dominating Cleveland State by 29 in the Nutter Center in the quarterfinals, the Raiders made the trip to Indianapolis for the semifinals — less than a month from when the city will host the national semifinals just a few miles down the road. It marked the program's first trip to the neutral-site portion of the Horizon League Tournament since it won the event in 2022.

The Raiders did not waste the opportunity, rising to the occasion in second-half comebacks of both games en route to winning the league's automatic bid. First, freshman guard Michael Cooper played hero by scoring 23 of his 25 points after halftime in the semifinal win over Northern Kentucky. Against Detroit Mercy in the title game, it was Logan Woods who capped a 11-point second-half comeback with back-to-back 3-pointers in the final 2:11 to turn a tie game into a six-point lead:

Freshman forward Kellen Pickett swatted three shots in the final 2:29, including two game-sealers in the last 13 seconds. Over the course of the whole event, Wright State's most consistent performer was sophomore guard TJ Burch, who won Tournament MVP honors for averaging 19.0 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.0 blocks per contest.

Now heading to the Big Dance for the first time since 2022, let's dive deeper into this iteration of the Raiders and how they could attempt to threaten a top seed.

Wright State puts pressure on the rim but has counters.

Wright State attempted 43.1% of its total shots at the rim this season, a mark which rates in the 100th percentile by CBB Analytics. While they only rate in the 33rd percentile nationwide for efficiency at the rim, shooting over 60% on over two-fifths of their shot attempts is a solid resume. Wright State led the Horizon League in offensive rating during league games, and ranks 118th nationally in adjusted offense for the full season.

TJ Burch sets the tone, with 8.8% of Wright State's possessions being 'rim attacks' by the sophomore guard, per Hoop-Explorer. The Raiders also let Michael Cooper attack, or feed Michael Imariagbe or Andrea Holden post-ups or rim-runs. All four players rate in the 80th percentile+ for unassisted points per 40. The Raiders only rank 302nd nationally in assist rate, though recorded this unnecessarily sick assist in the Horizon League semifinal:

It is worth noting that Wright State has not faced a ton of opponents who limit shots at the rim well, though. The Raiders only played nine D1 games vs. teams in the 46th percentile or better at limiting at-the-rim attempt rate, and went just 3-6 in those contests (18-5 otherwise). The likelihood is strong that Wright State will be faced with a more physical, taller defense in the NCAA Tournament than most it faced during the regular season.

That is where Michael Cooper could be a difference-maker. While he attacks the rim plenty, the freshman guard also adds a different dynamic as a mid-range magician; Cooper has attempted 19.0% of his shots in the mid-range this season (88th percentile) and converted on 39.7% of them (65th percentile). He also rates in the 93rd percentile among guards for efficiency on non-at-the-rim paint 2s are part of a varied shot chart:

From beyond the arc, watch out for sniper Solomon Callaghan, who has hit 66 3s on 39.8% efficiency this season. Of Wright State's 13 individual play types that account for 2.5% of more of possessions, Callaghan's "perimeter sniper" situations lead the way at 1.25 adjusted points per possession (Hoop-Explorer). Wright State shoots 43.0% on above-the-break 3s in its wins but only 26.2% in losses.

In the three wins over D1 opponents ranked in the 46th percentile+ for at-the-rim FGA% allowed, Callaghan shot a blistering 12-for-17 on above-the-break 3s; Cooper only played in two of those games but went 7-for-8 on non-at-the-rim 2s.

No wins over higher-ranked teams.

Wright State enters the NCAA Tournament ranked at No. 139 on KenPom, yet has not beaten a single team rated higher than itself this season: 23-7 against lower-rated teams and 0-4 against higher-rated teams. Having been swept in the regular season by the Horizon League's second-highest-rated KenPom team, No. 143 Robert Morris, the Raiders best win to date is over KP No. 169 Oakland (twice).

Additionally, Wright State is yet to play a top-70 KenPom opponent. Its toughest tests to date have come in losses at California (KP 74), at Butler (KP 86), and vs. Miami University (KP 90). Given the projected No. 14 or 15 seed on the horizon — pun intended — for Wright State, it will undoubtedly face its toughest opponent of the season in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Two potentially key traits to watch in Wright State's future draw are the opponents' offensive rebounding rate and 3-point percentage. The Raiders are 2-5 against the top-85 for OR%, with the wins coming by a combined five points. They are 2-6 against the top 40 for 3P% (19-5 otherwise) and 7-9 against the top 140 (14-2 otherwise).

Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles

Similar efficiency profiles and statistics found via Bart Torvik.

While Wright State only ranks 191st in adjusted defense, it has some elite playmakers on that end. Burch leads the nation in individual steal rate (5.8%), while Andrea Holden (8.3% block rate) and Kellen Pickett (6.6% block rate, 97th nationally) are strong rim protectors.

Michael Imariagbe is a huge piece of the puzzle as well, a post-up and rim-running finisher who ranked top 5 in the Horizon League in both OR% and DR% during league play; the Raiders have played 9.6 adjusted points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor versus without this season, per Hoop Explorer.

Tournament Index evaluation

As it stands, Wright State is a projected No. 14 seed by our bracketology at Basket Under Review and the Bracket Matrix.

If accurate, the Tournament Index would grade the Raiders as the eighth-weakest No. 14 seed (41st in power rating out of 49 teams) compared to the last 12 NCAA Tournament fields. As a No. 15, they would grade as the 22nd-strongest over the time frame. The TI projects an average of 0.13 wins for Wright State if a No. 14 seed, and 0.11 wins if a No. 15 seed.