Do you like hearing the same story twice, just with different chapters in a different order? Well, you’re probably going to like this Troy Trojans squad, which was the second-best by efficiency in the Sun Belt (just like last year), has a best player whose name begins with T (just like last year), is coached by Scott Cross (you guessed it), and will probably be a 14 seed…just like last year. The only key difference is that this year's team kinda cruised through the Sun Belt title game against Georgia Southern.
Beyond all of that, this Troy team changed things up a bit. Troy did return about 44% of minutes from last year’s squad, including the fantastic Thomas Dowd and the delightful Victor Valdes, but a lot of other impacts are new. The Campbells - Cooper and Cobi - were either not on the roster (Cobi) or barely a contributor (Cooper) last year, but both are full-time starters with great shots (Cooper 39% from 3, Cobi 41%).
Despite this collection of talent, it wasn't always guaranteed that Troy would be here. The Trojans had to hit an astonishing seven game-tying or go-ahead baskets in the final 30 seconds of games this year, the highest of any team in the nation. Just to get the Sun Belt's 1 seed, they needed three other foes - Appalachian State, Marshall, and South Alabama - to lose on the season's final day as Troy moved ahead of a six-way tie for second place.
However, the Trojans have found their crew, and few teams rely more on their starters in college basketball. They generate lots of great twos, defend hard on the perimeter, and crash the boards well. It'll take a heroic effort, but pushing a 3 seed to the brink is possible.
The second-chance Trojans
Loyal readers of our site will know that we're really big fans of the offensive rebound around these parts. On nights where shooting doesn't travel, you need to find ways to still generate points, regardless of ease of make. The easiest way to generate more points? Generate more shots by avoiding turnovers and securing lots of offensive rebounds.
Troy, under Scott Cross, has consistently taken this advice and ran with it. While this year's team isn't nearly as elite as last year's was on the boards (38.1% OREB%, 7th-best in the nation), they're still exceptional (34.5%, 62nd) and have paired it with much better offensive turnover management, as last year's TO% ranking was in the 300s
This has led to some very positive results when they're able to pair the two together. The Trojans have only had eight games this year with 11+ offensive rebounds and 10 or fewer turnovers, but in these games, they're 7-1 with the lone loss to South Alabama in a game where they had a howler from deep.
Plus, using John Gasaway's Shot Volume Index, they're in good company: at a 99.5 SVI on offense, they're +4 above the historical average for 14 seeds, indicating a very strong ability to generate extra possessions. If they hit the 14 line, they'll be just the eighth 14 seed of the last 25 years to post a 99 or better SVI.
I wish they were better at shot suppression, but the UNCW comp in particular could be interesting. That team pushed future Elite Eight team Texas Tech for 35+ minutes behind 11 offensive rebounds and keeping turnovers fairly low despite not shooting well at all. What would've happened if they'd hit a few more shots?
Shouting Thomas
If you need to know anything about this year's Troy, you need to know Thomas Dowd. Let's run some numbers.
- #2 in the Sun Belt in Box Plus Minus at +3.9.
- One of just two players in America to post a 10%+ OREB%, 20%+ DREB%, and make 50+ threes. The other: Michigan State's Jaxon Kohler.
- One of just 15 players to have a 10%+ OREB%, 20%+ DREB%, 4%+ Block%, and 2%+ Steal%. This includes players like Caleb Wilson, JT Toppin, Tarris Reed, and Ernest Udeh.
Pick a metric of your choice and there's a strong chance Dowd grades out terrifically in it. His 7.8 Wins Above Replacement Player at CBB Analytics is 99th-percentile nationally, for instance. His impact goes beyond the obvious of averaging 15 & 10, by the way: his On/Off rating is +10.8, meaning Troy is nearly 11 points worse per 100 possessions in the rare minutes he's allowed to touch the bench.
Plus, Dowd has been at his best when it's mattered most for the Trojans. In Troy's four games against Quad 1 and 2 competition, Dowd has averaged 17.3 PPG and 11.3 RPG while generating nearly five second-chance points a game. However, two things strike me as super important: a 7% TO% rate in these games, and the fact that he's averaged 40 minutes of playing time. (It helps when two of the games went to multiple overtimes.) If Dowd can play a full 40 in the Round of 64, Troy has a shot.
Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles
At first glance, there's not much to be inspired by, but dig somewhat deeper and you can feel better. The UNCW team I mentioned earlier is here, as is 2017 Northern Kentucky, who lost to Elite Eight Kentucky by single digits. Maybe they can change history.
Tournament Index evaluation
As it stands, Troy is a projected No. 14 seed by our bracketology at Basket Under Review and the Bracket Matrix.
The Tournament Index rates the Trojans below the usual No. 14 seed (41st in power rating out of 49 teams) compared to the last 12 NCAA Tournament fields. Should they end a different seed line, they would grade as the weakest No. 13 seed or the 22nd-strongest No. 15 seed over the same time frame. The TI projects an average of 0.13 wins for Troy given its projected seed (No. 14) and strength.
