UConn is the highest-seeded Big East team, but it is St. John's who won the regular-season and conference tournament titles en route to the NCAA Tournament...
St. John's was headed to the NCAA Tournament as a single-digit seed regardless of its results at the Big East Tournament. Still, the Red Storm made a statement at Madison Square Garden not so much with double-digit wins over Providence and Seton Hall in their first two games, but by controlling UConn in the final. The 20-point win was a tremendous response for head coach Rick Pitino's team after losing by 32 at UConn in the last meeting to enter the NCAA Tournament with a winning record against the intra-conference foe.
With both a regular-season and conference tournament title to its name, St. John's could have been seeded higher than a No. 5 on Selection Sunday. While it did not happen, the Red Storm will not be lacking in any motivation to make a deep run regardless. With two wins over a No. 2 seed in UConn, they shouldn't be lacking any confidence, either. They have the two top-end wins to show they can beat anyone, plus the loss at UConn is their only in a long time. St. John's has won 19 of its last 20 games.
The Red Storm dominate the possession battle.
St. John's only ranks 193rd nationally in effective field goal percentage. It does not take a ton of 3s (299th in attempt rate) or make a ton of 3s (216th in 3P%), nor has it been particularly effective inside the arc (190th in 2P%). Where it has thrived throughout the season, and especially in conference play, has been dominating on the margins. Of course, ranking 28th nationally in effective field goal percentage defense contributes to ranking 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency, but the Red Storm also winning the math battle by attempting more shots and free throws.
St. John's enters the Big Dance with top-60 rankings in offensive turnover rate (14.7%, 53rd), offensive rebounding rate (35.9%, 28th), and defensive turnover rate (19.4%, 37th). While the season-long defensive rebounding rate lags behind at just 171st in the country (69.8%), the Red Storm led the Big East in that category during league play (73.0%). Add in top 100 rankings in FTA/FGA on both ends of the floor, and St. John's builds elite margins that mask lesser shooting efficiencies.
St. John's ranks in the 96th percentile for rebounding/turnover differential (+258). Comparing that with their stout defensive eFG% results in...
Ball security against St. John's goes a long way, but it is easier said than done. Albeit mostly against top-rated foes, the Red Storm are only 3-4 against teams in the top 67 for turnover rate offense; they are 25-2 against opponents who cough up a higher rate. St. John's personnel makes it hard to avoid turnovers, though. The Red Storm's size and multipositionality allow them to adjust ball-screen coverages more than most.
A terrorizing four-man unit leads the way.
A large question regarding St. John's coming into the season was its point guard position. Stanford transfer Oziyah Sellers earned the first shot at the role, but it wasn't really his position. As the rest of the season progressed, the platoon of Ian Jackson and Dylan Darling played the de factor role, but it is the four around them that have defined the season. When Sellers, Bryce Hopkins, Dillon Mitchell, and Zuby Ejiofor have shared the floor this season, St. John's has been phenomenal:
The full-season numbers for the group are astounding, and the game breakdown for the lineup shows a drastic uptick in usage around midseason. Though the Red Storm's first 16 games, the four-man lineup was only playing 14.5% of the team's possessions. Over the last 18 games, though, that usage has increased to 37.9%.
The four-man unit does not shoot it well from three at all but rarely turns it over, dominates on the offensive glass, and is downright elite defensively. When they've been on the floor together over the last 18 games, St. John's has performed equivalent to the best defensive team and third-best overall team in the country:
Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles
Tournament Index evaluation
St. John's earned a No. 5 seed at the NCAA Tournament. In terms of seed strength, the Tournament Index grades the Red Storm as the second-strongest No. 5 seed compared to the last 12 tournament fields. Five of the prior top six strongest No. 5 seeds won at least two games in the Big Dance. For St. John's, The TI projects an average of 1.64 wins given its seed and team strength.
