Siena went just 2-3 in the regular season against its path to the MAAC auto-bid, but that did not stop three wins in three days to punch its first Big Dance ticket since 2010...

Siena has been one of the better programs in the MAAC for some time, finishing above-.500 in league play in eight of the last 11 seasons heading into this year's conference tournament. Yet, the league's automatic bid had proven elusive since earning its last automatic bid in 2010 under Fran McCaffery. They lost in the semifinals thrice over that span, lost in the championship once, were denied a chance at the automatic bid as the top seed in 2020 due to the COVID cancelation, then failed to make the semifinals as the No. 1 seed in 2021 to start a streak of five straight years without a conference tournament win.

In 2023-24, Siena finished just 4-28.

Now just a couple of years later, and in only Year 2 with former Syracuse star Gerry McNamara as head coach, the Saints returned to the top of the ladder.

They finished 13-7 in league play to earn the No. 3 seed at the MAAC Tournament, and proceeded to advance past Mount St. Mary's (63-58) and Fairfield (76-61) in the first two rounds to take on regular-season champion Merrimack. In the title game, Siena used a 22-3 run to take an early lead in the first half, then used a 12-0 in the second half to open another double-digit advantage after Merrimack had clawed back.

When Merrimack made yet another run late in the second half, cutting Siena's lead to only four with under three minutes left, sophomore leading scorer Gavin Doty delivered:

Doty earned Tournament MVP following the championship for his efforts. He averaged 21.7 points and 6.7 rebounds over the three wins in three days, including shooting 5-for-10 from three and 17-for-19 at the foul line over the semifinals and championship game.

Now dancing for the first time since 2010, let's deeper into Siena, who this team is, and its upset prospects for the NCAA Tournament.

Doty and Shoats are mid-range killers.

The mid-range has gone out of fashion in recent years as teams have prioritized the more analytically-friendly layups and 3s. Siena has found efficiency in the mid-range, though, taking advantage of opponents' willingness to surrender such shots. Over the course of the full season, Siena was one of just 26 teams in the country to rank in the top 150 for 2-point percentage despite also ranking sub-250 in average 2-point attempt distance, per KenPom.

In league play, the Saints posted the ninth-longest average 2-point attempt distance in the MAAC (13 teams)...yet still led the league in 2-point percentage.

Looking into CBB Analytics' shot chart data, Siena grades in the 67th and 77th percentiles for field goal attempt rate on non-at-the-rim paint 2s and mid-range 2s, respectively. The shot selection is backed up by efficiency, hitting 46.9% (85th percentile) and 41.3% (86th percentile) from those areas. When opponents force the Saints away from the basket and into 'inefficient' shots, Gavin Doty and Justice Shoats have made the PPP more reasonable.

Doty (17.9 points, 7.0 rebounds) and Shoats (13.2 points, 4.4 assists) seek different spots on their non-at-the-rim attempts, with the former staying in the paint and the latter living more in the mid-range, but both are exceptionally accurate from their primary areas. Doty grades in the 86th percentile on non-at-the-rim paint 2s, while Shoats is in the 76th percentile for mid-range jump-shot efficiency.

Siena suffocates at the rim and limits foul shots.

Siena led the MAAC in raw offensive efficiency during league play, but its season-long numbers still show a better adjusted rating on defense than offense. The Saints rank in the upper half of the country in all of the Four Factors defensive statistics, including 52nd in eFG% allowed and FTA/FGA surrendered. Looking further into Siena's defensive profile shows rating in the 97th percentile for field goal percentage allowed at the rim (55.2%). The stoutness inside has been even more pronounced down the stretch, surrendering just 47.9% shooting inside 4.5 feet over the last 10 games.

Siena does not block a ton of shots as a team, but Francis Folefac ranks 163rd nationally with a 5.4% block rate. Albeit in a small sample size, lineups with Folefac sharing the floor with 7-footer Riley Mulvey limit opponents to 98.3 adjusted points per 100 possessions — equivalent to the 26th-best defense in the country, per Hoop Explorer:

The game breakdown trending at the bottom is vital, as the Folefac/Mulvey duo is a recent breakthrough. Of their 693 combined offensive and defensive possessions played together this season, 383 of them (55.3%) have come in the last four games — all since Antonio Chandler was ruled ineligible. The Saints outscored their last four opponents, 222-170 (+52), with the duo sharing the court over this stretch, cutting down nets at the end.

Combining the at-the-rim defense with limiting foul shots is an excellent defensive recipe, though one untested against elite competition. On the bright side, Siena seems to have found something of late, and it is something with only limited tape to scout against.

Siena has only played one KenPom top 140 opponent.

When it comes to assessing how Siena's playing style can translate against a top-tier opponent like the No. 1 or 2 seed it will face in the NCAA Tournament, comparison points are extremely limited. The Saints only played the No. 343 nonconference strength of schedule, per KenPom, only facing one power conference opponent. The 21-point loss at KP No. 44 Indiana remains Siena's only game against the KenPom top 140. Expand out to include all games against the KenPom top 200, and Siena is just 1-4.

The one win came in its most recent game, though, knocking off No. 178 Merrimack in the MAAC Tournament title game. The Saints had previously been swept by the Warriors in the regular season to join losses to Indiana and St. Bonaventure (by nine).

Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles

Similar efficiency profiles and statistics found via Bart Torvik.

Siena runs a tight rotation ranking 333rd nationally in bench minutes percentage – and that is including playing most of the season with Antonio Chandler. Over the five games without him, all five starters are averaging 29.9 minutes or more. Doty and Shoats are playing 39.0 minutes per game over this stretch.

The continuity from year-over-year ranks 26th-highest in the nation. Among the returning pieces from last year is program vet Brendan Coyle. Coyle is only shooting 29.4% from three this season but attempts a ton (6.7 per game) and hit 39.3% last year. Coyle has the potential for big shooting games, such as hitting 5-of-12 3s against Mount St. Mary's in the MAAC Tournament. The 6-7 senior is averaging 13.3 points and 7.5 rebounds on 13-for-32 (40.7%) from three over the last four games.

Tournament Index evaluation

As it stands, Siena is a projected No. 15 seed by our bracketology at Basket Under Review and the Bracket Matrix.

The Tournament Index rates the Saints as the third-weakest No. 15 seed (T-45th in power rating out of 49 teams) compared to the last 12 NCAA Tournament fields. They would grade as an above-average No. 16 seed (17th in power rating out of 49 teams) if seeded lower. The TI projects an average of 0.09 wins for Siena given a projected No. 15 and its strength.