In a season that started out with Purdue as the preseason #1 team in the country, the Boilermakers performed an upset and won the Big Ten tournament and controlled the game against second-overall Michigan. After closing out the regular season winning two of six games, Matt Painter’s team heads into the NCAA Tournament with four straight, including three against NCAA Tournament teams.
It took dominant performances from their primary weapons to win this one, getting 20-point games out of both Trey Kaufman-Renn and Oscar Cluff and 28 combined points from Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer. The Wolverines were 4th in the country in two-point defense this season, allowing 44.3% shooting. Purdue went 26-for-43 (60.5%) from that area of the floor on Sunday.
Purdue is the second-lowest seed to win the Big Ten Tournament. Here is what to expect from a revitalized Boilermakers group headed into the NCAA Tournament.
Frontcourt remains a massive mismatch
Matt Painter is widely considered–and deservingly so–as one of the best offensive schemers in the country. He excels in providing different ways to take down opponents, utilizing advantages and then flipping the script should an opportunity arise in-game. One of the big first punches Purdue leans on is easy looks for their bigs inside.
Senior center Oscar Cluff leads the country in offensive rating and is shooting 69.8% on two-point attempts. He doesn’t demand high usage and is happy to serve as a cleanup big and play finisher for actions served up by Smith. The 6-foot-11 big man has the fifth-highest offensive rebounding rate in the country, largely to extend possessions and allow the Boilermakers to reset their offense. Purdue averages 13.5 second chance points per game.
Trey Kaufman-Renn has taken a step back in raw stats this season, but has done his best to fit into a new dynamic with more weapons and less dependency on him to carry the offense. He’s averaging 13.6 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. 10.4 of those points come in the paint, putting him in the 98th percentile of interior scorers in the country.
Array of guards dangerous on perimeter
The Boilermakers’ second punch is the lethal shooting found up and down this roster from the guard and wing positions. Painter has six guys on this Boilermakers team that attempt over 2 threes per game and they’re all shooting 34.9% or better.
The four main perimeter shooters, Fletcher Loyer, Braden Smith, Omer Mayer and CJ Cox, are a combined 36.8% from deep. The ball moves freely in Purdue’s offense, with 88.6% of those three-balls coming off an assist.
Loyer could be an X factor for this team in the tournament. He went through a significant slump in December and January, shooting 24-for-f83 (28.9%) over those two months. The career 40.7% three-point shooter is 50-for-104 (48.1%) in February and March.
The stellar perimeter shooting and the host of options only make one of the best point guards in the country, Smith, more dangerous. The senior is averaging 14 points and 9.1 assists per game this season and averaged 4.6 assists per turnover in the Big Ten Tournament.
What could stop Purdue’s engine
Purdue’s four-game run in Chicago might have lifted some of the stink on this season, but Big Ten Tournament success hasn’t always resulted in NCAA Tournament success. The last two winners, Michigan and Illinois, went a combined 5-2 in the big dance, but the three previous winners were 1-3.
The main sticking point for this Purdue team is their defensive limitations. Purdue enters the tournament with the fifth-worst effective field goal percentage defense in the field. The Boilermakers are slow-footed at closing out on the perimeter, allowing opponents to shoot 34.2% (11th worst in the field) on 25 attempts per game (7th highest in the field).
The bigs at Purdue also struggle to defend space. The Boilermakers rank 342nd in defensive field goal percentage at the rim, allowing opponents to shoot 63.7%. When backup Daniel Jacobsen is in the game, that average rises to 64.5%. The frontcourt allows 10.1 second chance points per game, a figure way too high considering the pace that their games are played at and the size they provide down low.
Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles
If Purdue can keep their production from Cluff going (averaged 17.2 points and 9.5 rebounds in the Big Ten Tournament), Purdue has the firepower to circumvent most of their defensive limitations. A couple of shocking upsets have painted this program as a team unable to carry its seed value deep into the tournament. But if the Boilermakers' perimeter shots aren't falling and their defense is where it's been all season, Purdue Pete may be sweating some games earlier than you'd expect.
Tournament Index evaluation
Purdue earned a No. 2 seed at the NCAA Tournament. In terms of seed strength, the Tournament Index grades the Boilermakers as the 23rd-strongest No. 2 seed of the last 13 tournaments (out of 52 teams), but the weakest of this year's field. For Purdue, the TI projects an average of 2.28 wins given its seed and team strength.
