In a year full of top-seeded mid-majors falling in their conference tournaments, North Dakota State made sure it did not join the list...
North Dakota State finished its regular season with a 14-2 intra-league record that won the Summit League by two full games and earned the No. 1 seed at the conference tournament. They did not waste the opportunity, either, pushing past No. 8 seed Oral Roberts by 11 in their quarterfinal matchup, blowing out No. 5 seed Omaha by 24 in the semifinals, and notching an eight-point win over North Dakota in the championship game to earn their sixth* automatic bid in the last 18 years — but this year will mark its first playing an NCAA Tournament game since 2019.
The Bison trailed for just 4:05 out of a total 120 minutes played in the conference tournament before cutting down the nets. Damari Wheeler-Thomas, who crossed the 1,000-point mark for his career in the title game, was named Tournament MVP for averaging 17.3 points on 10-for-19 (52.6%) from beyond the arc.
North Dakota State is more than just its intra-conference performance, though. The Bison enter the NCAA Tournament with a 27-7 overall record, their most wins in a season in program history. Their No. 114 ranking on KenPom is also their highest mark since finishing 112th in the 2019-20 season that was cut short before they could turn their conference tournament championship into an NCAA Tournament game due to the COVID cancellation.
The 3-point line is critical on both ends.
North Dakota State is not incredibly reliant on the 3-ball, ranking only slightly above the national average for 3-point attempt rate (42.7% of shots, 122nd). However, its shooting differential in wins vs. losses is staggering. It is not a surprise when a team performs better when it shoots better, but NDSU is splashing 38.1% of its 3s when it wins as opposed to just 26.6% when it loses. The Bison are also taking more 3s in wins (26.5 3PA/40) than losses (23.7 3PA/40).
From a shot selection standpoint, North Dakota State appears to have a preference from beyond the arc. The Bison are attempting 17.1% of their shots on right-side 3s in their wins but only 10.0% of their shots in that area in losses. The season-long preference might not matter given the single-elimination NCAA Tournament, but it is backed up by their efficiency numbers. The Bison are shooting 39.0% on 3s taken from the right side of the floor combined to just 30.9% on left-side 3s (38.1% on top-of-the-key 3s, 91st percentile).
As far as individuals go, North Dakota State is the only team in the country to feature five players who have made at least 35 3s on at least 37% efficiency this season:
The 3-point importance is not just about the offensive end, though. North Dakota State opponents have attempted 44.4% of their shots from beyond the arc this season (328th nationally), including 49.4% of their shots coming from deep in league play (highest in the Summit League). Add in that the Bison rank in the top 50 nationally for both defensive rebounding rate and free-throw rate allowed, and it isn't a surprise that opponents score 35.7% of their total points from three (44th-highest distribution in the country).
Given the rates allowed, it perhaps isn't a surprise that NDSU went undefeated (13-0) against foes ranked 240th or worse in 3P%. It was still 14-7 against teams in the top 240, but the vulnerability was there.
NDSU has not faced a KenPom top 100 opponent.
It is often the case that a double-digit seed is facing its toughest game of the season in the opening-round of the NCAA Tournament. For North Dakota State, though, its first-round opponent will be a massive uptick in competition compared to the rest of its schedule. As a projected No. 13-15 seed, the Bisons will be matched up with a top-16 team in the country. The game will be their first against the KenPom top 100 all season, with their toughest opponent to date being KP No. 108 St. Thomas, who it split with in the regular season.
North Dakota State is untested against the elite competition it will face in the first round, plus will be outsized. Each of the top 15 teams in the Bracket Matrix as of March 9 rank in the top 120 for average height, including 12 in the top 85 and eight in the top 30. NDSU ranks 339th. Rebounding is far from all about height, but it will be hard for the Bison to be as strong as their top-75 rankings in OR% and DR% indicate when sacrificing more size.
NDSU only played five games against the upper half of the country for average height this season, and went 1-4 in those games (0-3 against the top 100). It went 23-3 against the bottom half of the country for average height and 3-0 against non-D1s without data.
Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles
Tournament Index evaluation
As it stands, North Dakota State is a projected No. 14 seed by our bracketology at Basket Under Review and on the Bracket Matrix.
Should that be the case, the Tournament Index rates the Bison as a slightly-below-average No. 14 seed (29th-strongest power rating out of 49 teams) compared to the last 12 NCAA Tournament fields. They would be the sixth-weakest No. 13 seed or the 12th-strongest No. 15 seed if on those lines. The TI projects an average of 0.16 wins for North Dakota State given its projected seed (No. 14) and strength.
