A hearty welcome back to the Hofstra Pride, who finally return to the NCAA Tournament after 25 long years. The moment brought head coach Speedy Claxton – a Hofstra alum and legend who played in the NCAA Tournament there in 2000 – to tears, putting on full display just how much March means to everyone involved.
The Pride did win the CAA Tournament in 2020, but COVID sabotaged their chance to dance, thus making this victory extra meaningful. For Claxton, the accomplishment is both personally and professionally significant: the last guy to take Hofstra to this stage was none other than Jay Wright, who was in Hempstead for seven years before taking the Villanova job.
Despite being the No. 3 seed in the conference tournament, Hofstra is arguably the best team in the CAA. The Pride rate the highest at KenPom, Bart Torvik, Haslametrics and EvanMiya, an impressive unanimous declaration. Claxton’s crew struggled through a strange January swoon where they lost five consecutive games, but they are easily the best team in the league since Feb. 1, ranking 51st nationally thanks to a 10-1 record.
Analytics also agree that Hofstra is at its best against top competition. EvanMiya’s “opponent adjust” column displays this:
And according to Haslametrics’ “Paper Tiger Factor,” which measures how you perform against varying qualities of competition, Hofstra ranks 20th in the country (better ranking = better against good teams). The Pride nearly won at UCF in the season opener and later won at both Pitt and Syracuse. That could make them a serious challenge for whichever unfortunate No. 4 seed that draws them.
Defense Wins Championships
Hofstra is a balanced squad overall, residing inside the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. But it’s the interior defense that has made their run towards a top 50 squad possible.
For the season, the Pride are allowing just 44.2% shooting from inside the arc, the #4 mark in the entire country. Since Feb. 1, that number shrinks to 40.5%, the very best interior defense in the country. It is all but impossible to get quality looks around the rim against this defense, with personnel and scheme both contributing to that excellence.
The center platoon of Silas Sunday (listed at 7-0, 282 pounds) and Victory Onuetu (6-10, 235 pounds) are as imposing a big man duo as you will find in mid-major basketball. In fact, they are reminiscent of last year’s CAA champ, UNCW, who trotted out Harlan Obioha (7-0, 280) and Khamari McGriff (6-9, 210) in the paint. That team gave Texas Tech all it could handle in the NCAA Tournament’s opening round.
Both Sunday and Onuetu sport a block rate north of 6.0%, putting them right around 100th nationally, and they help Hofstra limit opponents to 58.5% shooting at the rim per CBB Analytics. That slots Hofstra in at the 87th percentile in rim FG% allowed.
It’s not just the defense at the rim, though – it’s more about the shot distribution that the Pride surrender. Their drop coverage makes it all but impossible to get to the bucket, and their defense allows an average 2-point attempt distance of 7.2 feet, good for 7th in the country (KenPom). Aligning with that, CBB Analytics has Hofstra in the 96th percentile in disallowing rim attempts:
You do not get to the rim, and you probably cannot finish if you do. If you cannot make jump shots off the dribble or frantically attack the offensive glass, your routes to scoring against this defense are extremely limited.
And If Defense Doesn't Win, Guards Do
I mentioned the offense is inside the top 100 as well. That is generally due to the immensely skilled guard duo of junior Cruz Davis and freshman Preston Edmead, two lethal scorers who can get buckets from anywhere while also facilitating for others. Their overall profiles are impressively similar, and neither one ever leaves the court (click to enlarge):
That duo became the first in CAA history to capture the Player of the Year (Davis) and Rookie of the Year (Edmead) honors in the same season. Opponents rarely had an answer to the perimeter puzzle they posed.
Being able to alternate playmakers and/or ride the hot hand is massive. Claxton was a point guard himself, and having two deadly backcourt weapons lets him pick and choose how and where to attack defenses. It all comes back to that duo running ball screens, and Hofstra’s Synergy profile makes no mystery about where the Pride’s bread is buttered:
Both Davis and Edmead can pull up from deep, navigate into the midrange, or get all the way to the rim to finish or draw contact.
The offense’s third banana is physical forward Biggie Patterson, a high-usage slasher who has become something of an unconventional microwave bench scorer as the Pride have taken off. Since moving permanently to the bench starting Feb. 7, he has scored in double figures five times in 10 games (all Hofstra wins), and his ability to attack mismatches with either speed or strength makes him a major asset to complement the Pride’s guards.
Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles
Unsurprisingly, there's some optimism here. The Pride's elite defense and slow tempo matches up well with three teams who won an NCAA Tournament game: UC Irvine beat , Yale beat Auburn, and Mercer famously knocked off Jabari Parker and Duke. It is unclear if any Pride players can match Mercer's postgame moves, though.
Tournament Index evaluation
As it stands, Hofstra is a projected No. 13 seed by our bracketology at Basket Under Review and the Bracket Matrix.
The Tournament Index rates the Pride as a well-above-average No. 13 seed (14th in power rating out of 49 teams) compared to the last 12 NCAA Tournament fields. Should they end a different seed line, they would grade as the 12th-weakest No. 12 seed or the seventh-strongest No. 14 seed over the same time frame. The TI projects an average of 0.23 wins for Troy given its projected seed (No. 13) and strength