Rainbow Warriors, assemble! For the first time since 2016, the Hawaii Warriors are back in the NCAA Tournament, and just like last time, they've got their eyes on their program's ultimate prize: a Round of 64 upset over a mainland team with far more money and resources than Hawaii has. Under Eran Ganot, this has become a dominant mid-major defense, with this year's being the third-best defense in school history, ranking 42nd in defensive efficiency.

Hawaii can do more than simply stop you from scoring, though. This year's team had the Big West's best player in Utah State transfer Isaac Johnson, a 7-footer who finally found his home on the island and averaged 14 & 6 as the go-to guy on a Hawaii team that badly needed anyone to be a go-to guy. Ganot's teams will always be defense first, and Johnson served as the anchor for a unit that held their competition to 46.6% from 2 (22nd-best) and almost never gave up offensive rebounds (10th-best in DREB%). When your contemporaries on the list of Teams Ranking in the Top 25 of Both Defensive eFG% and DREB% are Duke, Gonzaga, Florida, Saint Mary's, and Northern Iowa, you're clearly doing something right.

Much like the 2016 team that surprised 4-seed Cal in the Round of 64, Hawaii will look to get it done again this year behind this excellent defense and two-way 2PT% dominance. With the right matchup, I think they'll have a reasonable shot.

The no-help defense

It does what it says on the tin. If you haven't watched Jordan Sperber's excellent video on the Hawaii defense from a few weeks back, pause reading, take 12 minutes, and watch it now:

Alright, glad you're back. As it says, Hawaii almost never helps on drives to the paint and plays everything straight-up. This can get you in trouble against elite 1-on-1 scorers and/or finishers, but at the Big West level this year, those were few and far between. As such, Hawaii had the third-lowest Assist% allowed and the 15th-lowest amount of three-pointers allowed.

As Sperber mentions in the video, the way to beat the Hawaii defense is through lobs on the pick-and-roll, as well as having a shooter be your screener. That's all easier said than done. The team with the highest attempt rate by far from their 5-men in conference play was UC San Diego, and Hawaii defeated them in February despite posting a 5-26 3PT day themselves.

What Hawaii does is funnel a ton to near the rim, not really at it. Hawaii's opponents took nearly 20% of their shots between 5 and 10 feet from the rim, per CBB Analytics, which is like analytical no man's land. Their bet is that, on average, you're not going to hit enough of the pull-up jumpers, floaters, and long layups the Hawaii defense forces. More often than not, they're pretty good at winning these bets.

Don't forget about Dre

Isaac Johnson is easily Hawaii's best player, and since February 1, he's taken on a gigantic role: 118 ORtg on 32% USG, 16 PPG, 64% 2PT, all while being the main focus of everyone's scouting report. However, he can't do it alone. Meet South Dakota transfer Dre Bullock, who in that same span of time has posted 15 PPG/6 RPG while leading the team in made threes with 15.

Bullock is an unusual and thrilling secondary piece: a 6'6" wing that has played everything from the 2 to the 5 in college depending on what's been asked of him. He draws nearly five fouls per 40 minutes, is possibly Hawaii's best defensive rebounder, and runs extremely hot and cold. Bullock's point totals from January 31 to now: 26, 10, 19, 5, 22, 21, 4, 27, 17, 14, 11, 15.

If it's meant to be for Hawaii, it's going to require a big day from Bullock. The Warriors are 13-2 this year when Bullock scores 15+ (11-6 otherwise), and arguably their three biggest wins of the season (at Cal State Fullerton, home versus UCSB, the final against UC Irvine) saw Bullock go for a combined 63 points. Johnson is Johnson, but Bullock isn't always Bullock. Hawaii needs him to be ready to rip from tip.

Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles

Similar efficiency profiles and statistics found via Bart Torvik.

Tournament Index evaluation

As it stands, Hawaii is a projected No. 13 seed by our bracketology at Basket Under Review and on the Bracket Matrix.

Should that be the case, the Tournament Index rates the Warriors as a below-average No. 13 seed (41st-strongest power rating out of 49 teams) compared to the last 12 NCAA Tournament fields. If the Warriors land higher or lower, they would be the third-weakest No. 12 seed or the 18th-strongest No. 14 seed compared to the last 12 fields. The TI projects an average of 0.19 wins for Hawaii given its projected seed (No. 13) and strength.