Cal Baptist joined Division I in 2018, elevating to the WAC from the Pacific West in Division II. Ricky Croy has been the coach throughout that transition, a former Saint Mary’s associate head coach who took over the CBU job in 2013.
He immediately had the Lancers competitive at the new level – the Lancers went 21-10 and finished second in the WAC in just their second year in Division I – and he has now punched CBU’s ticket to its first ever Division I NCAA Tournament.
Croy took a very intentional approach towards building this roster. First and foremost, he prioritized bringing back mega scorer Dom Daniels, a 5-10 lightning bolt who can get hot from anywhere on the court. He added some supporting scorers on the perimeter in Jayden Jackson and Devon Malcolm while also retaining physical guard Martel Williams.
Then, he built up a towering frontcourt anchored around the trio of returners Bradey Henige and Jonathan Griman plus Oregon State transfer Thomas Ndong. The result is a team that appears short overall (312th in average height, per KenPom) but is actually massive up front (41st in effective height, which centers on the PF and C positions). That makes the Lancers a lethal combination of huge inside and quick in the backcourt.
Dominant Daniels
The offense revolves entirely around Dom Daniels, the WAC Player of the Year and one of the highest-usage players in the entire sport. The ball is constantly in his hands, with CBU’s collection of massive big men rotating the responsibility of setting ball screens for him possession after possession.
Per Synergy, Cal Baptist ranks in the 99th percentile in frequency of Pick & Roll Ball Handler possessions, with nearly a quarter of their offensive actions ending that way. Nearly two-thirds of all of Daniels’ scoring opportunities come in ball screens, and he has logged a ludicrous 383 PnR possessions this season. That laps the rest of the field – only one other player nationally even exceeds 300:
It’s no surprise that Daniels accounts for 30.3% of his team’s field goal attempts for the season, per CBB Analytics. That is #3 in the country and easily the top rate in the NCAA Tournament; AJ Dybantsa is second in the field at 27.4%. Daniels has also recorded 31.2% of CBU’s assists, placing him in the 94th percentile nationally. He is both scorer and playmaker in this offense.
The trouble comes when Daniels’ rim attacks become inefficient tosses at the bucket. His stature makes it tough to finish around the rim, despite him having some impressive craft in that department. He gets in the lane a ton, but he’s merely pedestrian once he does (charts via CBB Analytics):
Few offenses in college basketball are as heliocentric as CBU's is around Daniels. He has posted some wild stat lines as a result. Against Utah Valley in the WAC title game, the Lancers won despite a disappointing 7-of-25 shooting performance from Daniels. On the bright side, has two different 40+ point performances on the season. He was up and down in CBU’s three games against P5 competition: 22.3 points per game is solid, but he shot just 40% from the field vs. Utah, BYU and Colorado.
If Not Daniels, Then…
CBU’s scoring beyond Daniels is limited. Williams and Jackson are big-bodied guards with complementary games; Williams prefers to attack off the bounce, while Jackson is the Lancers’ best shooter beyond Daniels. CBU ranks 328th in 3PA rate for a reason; it simply is not the focus of their downhill PnR scheme.
If CBU needs to give Daniels a possession or two off from creator, it can play through Henige in the post. He’s a solid finisher down low, ranking in the 77th percentile in efficiency per Synergy. The Lancers will also let the 6-3, 215-pound Williams bully mismatches on the block if the opportunity presents itself.
Croy deploys German freshman Jordan Muller at point guard at times, and his presence allows Daniels to shift off the ball for stretches. When those two share the court together, CBU’s offense jumps up to 113.4 points per 100 possessions, per CBB Analytics, up from a baseline of 109.3 points per 100.
The Lancers rely heavily on the offensive rebounding of Henige, Ndong and Griman to supplement its offense. Henige and Ndong are both in the top 60 nationally in offensive rebound rate, per KenPom, while Griman sneaks inside the top 200, as well. Malcolm is highly effective on the glass as well despite being more of a smallball 4 option.
Defensively, the Lancers are built exactly how you’d expect for a coach with a background of working under Randy Bennett at Saint Mary’s. The Lancers play a ton of drop coverage, forcing opposing guards to score in the midrange and off the bounce. They refuse to help off shooters (8th nationally in 3PA rate allowed defensively) and their interior size made them the best defensive rebounding team in the WAC. Outside of physical defensive demon Malcolm, the Lancers are not going to make opponents uncomfortable.
Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles
CBU has a couple solid indicators as an underdog. The slower pace lends well to the "giant killer" approach, limiting possessions against more talented teams. Their interior size helps, as well. Unfortunately, it has been a decade since one of the Lancers' closest comps won a game in the NCAA Tournament.
Tournament Index evaluation
California Baptist earned a No. 13 seed at the NCAA Tournament. In terms of seed strength, the Tournament Index grades the Lancers as the 40th-strongest No. 13 seed of the last 13 tournaments (out of 52 teams). For California Baptist, the TI projects an average of 0.19 wins given its seed and team strength.
