Tommy Lloyd’s Wildcats take home both the Big 12 regular season and conference tournament championships, finishing their season of Big 12 matchups at 19-2. Their path to winning the Big 12 Tournament included victories over three NCAA Tournament teams, including two likely #2 seeds, Iowa State and Houston.
Arizona has shown throughout their 34 games before the dance that their floor is better than most of the country’s ceiling, with their two losses having a combined margin of 7 points. It’s because of the Wildcats' impact across their entire ensemble. Every rotational player who plays 20 minutes or more averages at least 9 points. Every one of those players has also scored 20 points at least once this season.
The Wildcats are a team built on collective fit rather than on maximizing individual talent, something that is becoming increasingly rare among teams featuring top-10 recruits in their rotations. But it’s also how they maximize a tight rotation that has handled player injuries throughout the season, including in the Big 12 title game against Houston, where Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley was sidelined for a period of the second half.
Here are the components of this Arizona team that make them a favorite in the NCAA Tournament.
A case for the best frontcourt in the country
The identity of this Arizona team is found in toughness. Lloyd has brought this up throughout the close of this season, that this team has surpassed previous squads with its resilience and ability to close out games and win in the mud. That mentality is exploited by the onslaught of four frontcourt players who are relentless on the glass and muscling their way to the cup.
Arizona dominated the glass on both ends in Big 12 play, leading the conference in offensive and rebounding percentage, especially notable considering the pace that Arizona likes to play (we’ll get to that later). You’re just going to squeeze the life out of your opponent when you limit their ability to get second chance points and extend your own possessions.
The Wildcats have the best two-point shooting defense among high majors, holding opponents to a brutal 43.8% inside the arc. That’s thanks to their top-10 size, with Lloyd deploying three players 6-foot-7 or taller at all times. It’s also how complementary the bigs and wings work off of each other. Senior Tobe Awaka agreed to come off the bench this season in favor of blue chip recruit Koa Peat.
Awaka is an enforcer, bruising big averaging 9.4 points and 9.5 rebounds. Peat functions as an offensive hub, providing spacing for the big man he’s playing alongside by working around the midrange and three-point line. Peat is averaging 13.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game. 7-foot-2 Montejus Krivas is able to play with either forward, averaging 10.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.8 blocks.
Ivan Kharchenkov is the interesting wrinkle from the wing. At 6-foot-7, he plays a jumbo guard style of play while being able to provide size to help rebound and limit interior looks. He’s averaging 10.1 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game. The freshman from Germany can help provide spacing by getting a ton of his work done around the arc, especially at the nail and midrange. He isn’t yet hyper-efficient from distance, but is serviceable enough to add spacing for Arizona’s priority of getting looks at the rim.
Relentless pace of play
So, with the limited opportunities Arizona allows opponents through its two-point defense and elite rebounding, its pace of play serves as the anvil for pulverizing opponents into submission. It’s hard to beat a team that can get out in transition like the Wildcats do when they also do a great job of limiting opponents’ fastbreak looks.
Arizona is averaging 15.5 fastbreak points per game while giving up 8.7 on the other end. They’re shooting as a team 68.5% on fastbreak attempts. The Wildcats are averaging 1.01 points per possession off defensive rebounds (96th percentile) and 1.13 points per possession off live turnovers (90th percentile).
But the pace of play that Lloyd’s teams play with, carried over from his time with Gonzaga, is pushing pace even after opponent makes. The Wildcats have an identical 1.01 points per possession off of made opponent field goals. The majority of their made shots come within the first 10 seconds of their possessions, putting them in the 86th percentile nationally on those looks.
Arizona’s weakness: Can they match a team getting hot?
What could be the thermal exhaust port of this Death Star of a team? Arizona’s reliance on interior scoring. The Wildcats have the lowest three-point attempt rate among teams in the NCAA tournament and the fourth-lowest rate in the country. Opponents are making 7.3 threes per game to Arizona’s 5.9.
Three-point shooting has always been the great equalizer in March, and it remains to be seen how Arizona would handle needing perimeter scoring late in games should an opposing team get hot. Just two players on the team have attempted over 100 threes this season: freshman Brayden Burries and Anthony Dell’Orso.
Burries is one of the great scoring guards in all of the country, where he skyrocketed as the team’s leading scorer in conference play after a slow start to the season. Buries has battled illness and injuries throughout the season and was receiving treatment for leg tightness and soreness throughout the Big 12 tournament. Dell’Orso is a microwave shooter, but has been inconsistent at times. He has five games of going 1 for 5 or worse and three games of making 4 or more perimeter shots.
But with how the Wildcats play and control games, we’ll see if this scenario even becomes a possibility.
Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles
The Wildcats have the pieces and consistency to go deep in this tournament. It would take an underdog story that makes David and Goliath seem like an 8/9 matchup for them not to play in the second weekend or even well into the Final Four.
Tournament Index evaluation
Arizona earned a No. 1 seed at the NCAA Tournament. In terms of seed strength, the Tournament Index grades the Wildcats as the fourth-strongest No. 1 seed of the last 13 tournaments (out of 52 teams), and second-strongest of this field. For Arizona, the TI projects an average of 3.15 wins given its seed and team strength.
