The 2024-2025 coaching carousel saw 58 changes at the Division I level, with 14 coming from the high major conferences. The spring of 2026 has potential for even more activity, with several high profile jobs hanging in the balance. Here's a breakdown of where things stand in each of the high major conferences and predictions on how things will shake out:
ACC
Safe: Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, Miami, NC State, SMU, Stanford, Virginia
Probably safe, but needs to show improvement: California, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame
Not safe: Boston College, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Earl Grant, Boston College
Boston College improved their win total every year for the first three seasons under Earl Grant, but the wheels fell off in year four. The Eagles, strapped with one of the lowest NIL budgets among power conference schools, struggled to field a roster talented enough to compete in the ACC. BC finished 12-19 (4-16, ACC) and failed to make the conference tournament.
This offseason, the Eagles were able to retain their best player in Donald Hand Jr., but the rest of the roster doesn't inspire confidence in a league where several other teams made significant upgrades. Grant earned a contract extension in March of 2023 and his current deal runs through the 2028-2029 season. He's 61-72 overall and Boston College hasn't made the NCAA tournament since 2009, so expectations are relatively low. With that said, a significant improvement is needed for Grant to see a sixth season at Conte Forum.
Prediction: Boston College's struggles continue and they make a change at the end of the year.
Hubert Davis, North Carolina
For most programs, three NCAA tournament berths and a national title appearance in four years is statue worthy. For Hubert Davis at North Carolina, it's seemingly not enough. The hand-picked successor of Roy Williams is universally loved and has the backing of the administration, but the up-and-down nature of his tenure thus far has put him in the crosshairs entering year five.
After a magical six-week run to end year one, a missed tournament in year two took any wind out of the sails. A one-seed in year three fell flat after a loss in the Sweet 16. Last season required another late surge to find a way into the First Four, with the Tar Heels getting bounced before the end of the first weekend. Davis' first-year title game appearance is quite the double-edged sword in retrospect. He earned himself a long runway, but also found a way to raise expectations so high that the ceiling is somehow above the roof.
This spring, North Carolina turned heads with the hire of general manager Jim Tanner and their robust NIL budget of $14M. There's a clear commitment from UNC brass and they've spared no expense to make sure this works. The general consensus among industry sources is that North Carolina needs to make the NCAA tournament and win at least one game to ensure a sixth year for Hubert Davis. Anything less than that could result in a coaching search for one of the top three jobs in the sport. The Tar Heels are easily the most intriguing and consequential team to watch this cycle.
Prediction: This roster is good enough to make the second weekend and Davis finds a way to keep his job. At Basket Under Review, Kevin Sweeney and Eric Fawcett explored how the pieces fit and what Tar Heel fans could expect from their squad this season.
Jeff Capel, Pittsburgh
Aside from a lone NCAA tournament appearance in 2023, Jeff Capel's tenure at Pittsburgh has been largely underwhelming. The seventh-year head coach is 114-107, with only two winning seasons in ACC play. The Panthers were a fixture in the Big Dance under Jamie Dixon, but haven't quite been able to recreate that Oakland Zoo magic since he left for TCU.
Capel's contract runs through 2030 thanks to an extension from now departed athletic director Heather Lyke. Lyke was Capel's staunchest supporter and gave him a buyout that seems insurmountable for a school whose athletic department is running in the red. If new athletic director Allen Greene can find the financial support, he'd likely look to make a move should Pitt struggle again this season.
Prediction: Pitt finishes near .500 again, but financial limitations help Capel keep his job for another season.
Red Autry, Syracuse
Replacing the guy isn't always the easy, but Syracuse fans were hoping for a little more from hand-picked successor Adrian "Red" Autry. The Orange alumnus got the call up after 12 seasons on the bench next to legendary head coach Jim Boeheim. His first year showed some glimpses, with Cuse hitting 20 wins and notching a big home victory against eventual 1-seed North Carolina. Last year though, Syracuse failed to beat anyone inside the KenPom top 90 and finished a disappointing 14-19 (7-13, ACC).
Following the season, Cuse athletic director John Wildhack issued a statement declaring Autry would return for the 2025-2026 campaign. In today's world, a public vote of confidence earns you an automatic spot on the following season's hot seat list. Armed with a larger NIL budget and a new GM, the expectation is tournament or bust for the Orange.
Prediction: Syracuse narrowly misses the tournament and a change is made at the end of the year.
Mike Young, Virginia Tech
Mike Young is widely regarded as one of the best offensive-minded coaches in the country. Unfortunately for him, it hasn't translated into much success on the scoreboard in recent years. Handicapped by one of the lowest NIL budgets at the power conference level, Virginia Tech has failed to make the NCAA Tournament in three consecutive seasons.
The 62-year-old was retained with a pledge to increase funding and Virginia Tech's administration delivered on that promise. The Hokies hired Chester Frazier and new GM Nelson Hernandez from West Virginia, then gave them a budget that helped land a solid portal and international haul. Some still believe this could be Mike Young's last season regardless of the outcome, but an injection of funding could change his perception if it produces results.
Prediction: Virginia Tech shows clear improvement from last season and Young gets one last contract extension to finish out his career.
Steve Forbes, Wake Forest
Steve Forbes wouldn't be on this list at all had his teams won an extra game or two the last few seasons. Wake Forest has landed on the wrong side of the bubble multiple times over Forbes' five-year tenure. Soft non-conference slates and untimely losses are the culprit here, leading to a change in scheduling philosophy heading into 2025-2026. The Demon Deacons will play Michigan, Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, West Virginia and a handful of other tough opponents before starting league play this season.
Forbes, like his in-state foe Hubert Davis, is extremely well-liked and has the full support of his administration. With that being said, there's a pretty cut-and-dry need to make the NCAA tournament this season.
Prediction: The big name talents are gone, but this team gels and finds a way to sneak into the First Four.
Big East
Safe: Creighton, DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, St. John's, UConn, Villanova, Xavier
Probably safe, but needs to show improvement: Providence, Seton Hall
Not safe: Butler
Thad Matta, Butler
The second iteration of the Thad Matta experiment is not going well in Indianapolis. Butler posted 20 losses for the first time since 1990 and they haven't been remotely close to making a tournament appearance in Matta's three seasons. The Bulldogs are another team whose NIL situation is a legitimate handicap, so it's hard to lay all the blame on Matta here. In fact, he's beaten his KenPom preseason ranking all three years!
Ultimately it comes down to how much support administration and boosters are willing to give a once proud program. Butler is clearly behind in resources and while Matta can coach, he's not good enough to overcome the talent deficit on the floor every night. It's an important year at Hinkle Fieldhouse.
Prediction: Butler struggles again and they bring in a new coach who gets first crack at previously untapped resources.
Big Ten
Safe: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Probably safe, but needs to show improvement: Penn State
Not safe: Ohio State, Rutgers
Jake Diebler, Ohio State
Jake Diebler took over for Chris Holtmann and did just enough to earn the full-time job in Columbus. Detractors will say Diebler's interim run was the result of shooting luck and those people took a victory lap after last season. Ohio State finished 17-15 (9-11, B10) and largely underperformed despite a talented roster. It's rare to see a high-major coach on this list after one season, but this is Ohio State. The last three OSU coaches were fired after missing back-to-back NCAA tournaments.
Heading into this season, Diebler has another roster that should be safely in the tournament. The Buckeyes have a good blend of continuity and impact transfers, resulting in a preseason ranking of 19th at Bart Torvik. Should things go south, the buyout isn't prohibitive and Ohio State can circle back with several options they engaged with before ultimately hiring Diebler.
Prediction: Ohio State's talent is good enough to earn at least an eight-seed in the tournament and Diebler gets another season.
Steve Pikiell, Rutgers
Steve Pikiell's nine-year tenure has had it's ups and down, but he's still the most successful Rutgers coach in the last 30 years. Since their last NCAA tournament appearance in 2022, the Scarlet Knights are a perfectly average 49-49 (25-25, B10). Finishing under .500 with two top-five picks, though, is enough to turn up the heat heading into this season.
In addition to a steady decline on the court, Rutgers has a new athletic director after Pat Hobbs resigned last August. Not only does this mean Pikiell has a new boss to impress, but it significantly lowered his buyout going forward. 2025-2026 is suddenly a "prove it" year for one of the longest-tenured coaches in the Big Ten. If Pikell isn't let go, sources suggest he could be motivated to find a parachute job at the end of the year.
Prediction: Rutgers struggles continue and a change is made at the end of the year.
Big 12
Safe: Arizona, Baylor, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech, Utah, West Virginia
Not safe: Arizona State, Cincinnati, UCF
Retirement Watch: Colorado, Kansas
Bobby Hurley, Arizona State
Bobby Hurley is on the last year of his contract and there's no indication an extension will be signed before the season starts. Not much else needs to be said for a coach whose tenure has only seen four winning seasons in ten years. This is a true win or go home situation.
Prediction: Arizona State finishes under .500 again and makes a change.
Johnny Dawkins, UCF
Johnny Dawkins has the lone NCAA tournament berth for the Knights since 2005 and he's arguably the second-best coach the school has ever had. Unfortunately, UCF hasn't done much of anything in the six years since their tourney appearance. Dawkins has found a way to survive a few offseasons on the chopping block, but he's now going into a season where his buyout drops to $0 after April 15, 2026. The Knights will need a bit of a resurgence for Dawkins to get another season in Orlando.
Prediction: UCF finishes in the bottom tier of the Big 12 again and a change is made.
Wes Miller, Cincinnati
Wes Miller was supposed to be the future head coach at North Carolina! The last four seasons at Cincinnati have squashed any chance of that, though. Last season's collapse after a 10-1 start nearly did Miller in and he can thank a massive buyout for giving him another chance. It would've cost the Bearcats $13M to change coaches this spring and that number drops to $4.69M after April 1, 2026. This is undeniably a tournament or bust situation for Miller.
Prediction: Cincy misses the tournament again and they wait until April 1 to make the change.
SEC
Safe: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Probably safe, but needs to show improvement: Georgia, South Carolina
Not safe: LSU, Oklahoma
Retirement Watch: Auburn
Matt McMahon, LSU
Matt McMahon is 45-53 (14-40, SEC) in three seasons at LSU, finishing at least 30 spots below his preseason KenPom ranking every year. McMahon had to rebuild the program completely after the firing of Will Wade, but patience is beginning to wear thin in Baton Rouge. The Tigers haven't exactly prioritized basketball from an NIL perspective, so putting together competitive rosters in a loaded SEC has proven difficult. McMahon's buyout drops to $6.1M after the season and LSU boosters seem more than ready to pay it out. It's a very clear win or go home scenario in the bayou.
Prediction: LSU falls short of the NCAA tournament again and they make a change.
Porter Moser, Oklahoma
Oklahoma snuck into the tournament last year despite a 6-12 record in SEC play. A 13-0 start in the non-conference with a few signature wins was enough to earn Porter Moser his first NCAA tournament appearance in four years at OU. Moser was squarely on the hot seat towards the end of the year and remains there this season - though on a slightly cooler throne.
The Sooners added a ton of talent this spring and project to finish right in the middle of the SEC, per Bart Torvik. A second consecutive tournament appearance would quell any signs of trouble in Norman. Oklahoma is in the midst of an AD search, which further complicates the dynamics of Moser's situation. A buyout of just over $5M isn't prohibitive, but the timing of the AD hire is important to watch here.
Prediction: Oklahoma wins enough to comfortably make the tournament and Moser starts getting looks from other schools.