You know what it is. Let's roll. These are all the things I'm looking for on Selection Sunday that you can watch for, too.

Who are the 1 seeds?

It’s possible that by the Selection Show this will be completely pointless. Duke, Michigan, and Arizona are mega-mortal locks to be 1 seeds, and barring them re-doing the whole bracket to elevate Houston or UConn, Florida will be the final 1 seed. I guess I don't have much faith in the Selection Committee to be flexible when they've yet to demonstrate much in the way of care about Saturday/Sunday results. TBD! If they purely go by WAB, Houston should be the final 1 seed, but...I don't know. Maybe I'm too cynical.

Maybe we should rephrase this question, as it does matter a little bit.

What order will the 1 seeds be in?

We know the committee generally seems to like head-to-head results when all else is more or less equal, which means Duke is probably the overall #1 ahead of Michigan and is essentially penned into the East Region in DC. (In the event that Michigan doesn’t win the B1G but Arizona does): If Michigan loses the Big Ten title game later today, it would maybe move Arizona ahead, but to be honest, this has no effect on where either is headed. Arizona wouldn’t want the Midwest and Michigan wouldn’t want the West.

The final 1 seed, likely Florida, would get the South Region, and there’s some interesting meaning to this one. If paired with Houston, they’d be at a massive home court disadvantage. The problem is that someone has to get the final 1 seed, and unless it actually is Houston, there’s a chance the committee pairs these two together at the final 1/first 2. Alternately, if the committee views UConn as superior to Houston, they could send UConn to the South Region to avoid an Arizona/UConn Elite Eight rematch out West, but Houston can’t be sent to the West due to bracketing rules preventing the top three teams from a conference being in the same region and not allowing multiple teams from the same league in a specific region’s 1-4 seed lines.

There’s some amount of meaning to the order here, as the top 2 seed can’t be paired with the top 1. This does mean that if you’re Houston/UConn/whoever the top 2 is, you can’t be paired with Duke…but, well, are you really happier if you’re paired with Michigan? Tough either way.

Who’s your 2 seeds? 

The 2 seeds have something like two mortal locks and two huge questions. The two that don't get the final 1 seed out of Florida/Houston/UConn are 2 seeds and they'll be 5 and 6 in the seeding order. Easy enough. That leaves the following candidates for the remaining two 2 seeds.

  • Iowa State, who averages 6.3 in the predictive metrics and is 9th in WAB.
  • Michigan State, who lost in the Big Ten quarterfinal and ranges between 10th and 13th in literally every Committee metric.
  • Illinois, who has the second-best predictive metrics (6.7) but is 16th in WAB.
  • Purdue, who plays in the Big Ten title game today. They're 8th in WAB, 8th at KenPom, and 9th at NET.

If you're going purely on resume, the final two 2 seeds should be Purdue and Iowa State. If you go by predictives, it's Iowa State and Illinois. I would wager Iowa State is one of the 2 seeds. Because the Committee cares about head-to-head or reputes to, I would guess Purdue probably isn't a 2 because they lost to both MSU and Illinois. This probably ends up with Michigan State as your final 2 by way of owning wins over both, but I'm not confident in that pick. I could see any of the three getting it while the other two are on the 3 line.

Where is Miami Yes That Miami seeded?

We're talking about the REAL Miami: the RedHawks of Ohio. Where Miami is seeded will likely tell us a good bit about how much resume metrics are valued by the Selection Committee. If the committee uses Wins Above Bubble and/or the average of the resume metrics, 31-1 Miami will be a 9 or 10 seed and miss Dayton entirely. If the Committee leans more on predictive metrics, Miami is probably headed to Dayton as an 11.

The 'right' answer doesn't exist, because we haven't had a team anything like Miami in this current era of selection and seeding. That 2012 Murray State team everyone points to won their conference tournament and was top-40 in KenPom by Selection Sunday, though the committee didn't use that then. The closest thing to it in the post-COVID era is maybe 2023-24 Utah State, who averaged 58th in predictive metrics but was 17th in WAB and 38th in NET. The committee...split the difference, kind of? They got an 8 seed. I side with the believers who think Miami is in no matter what, but I have no idea where.

Where are teams like Louisville, Virginia, and even TCU/UCF seeded? 

This is the most interesting test case of WAB versus metrics to me, at least based on the committee’s own words from a few weeks ago. Purely by resume metrics, Louisville should be locked in as a 6 seed without much of an issue. Virginia is probably a 3 or a 4 seed for the same reasons. And yet, these are how the predictive metrics view these two teams:

  • Louisville: 14th on average
  • Virginia: 21st on average

In all likelihood, we know Louisville won't be a 4 seed and Virginia won't be the highest 6 seed. However, if Louisville jumps to a 5 seed and Virginia slips to a 4, is this an indication of what the committee said last month?

Similar goes for TCU and UCF. Both teams would be 9 seeds purely based on resume metrics...but if predictives take hold, either or both could end up in the First Four. We'll monitor.

Who's in and who's out?

Here comes the fun. I'm going off of the Bracket Matrix, for the record. Any team that is a 10 seed or lower is, broadly speaking, a member of the bubble. That means the following 14 teams are Bubble Material™, and as at-larges, I believe only eight of them can get in.

  • UCF
  • Texas A&M
  • NC State
  • Santa Clara
  • Missouri
  • Miami (OH)
  • SMU
  • VCU (if an at-large)
  • Texas
  • South Florida (if an at-large)
  • San Diego State
  • Auburn
  • Oklahoma
  • New Mexico
  • Indiana

Barring a true shocker, these are your teams. There is real debate to be had over whether VCU would be an at-large that gets in or not, and if they did, that would make the Atlantic 10 a three-bid conference. If so, that shrinks the at-large cutline by one. As usual, I like to present you with different ways of sorting these teams.

If the field is sorted by WAB and VCU wins the Atlantic 10 Tournament:

10 seeds: UCF, Santa Clara, Miami (OH), Texas A&M
11 seeds: Missouri/NC State, VCU, Auburn/San Diego State, McNeese State

If the field is sorted by WAB and VCU doesn't win the Atlantic 10 Tournament, San Diego State would fall out and you'd have a First Four battle between VCU and Auburn. Unbelievable, I know.

If the field is sorted by a resume average that includes KPI and ESPN's Strength of Record, this time including a VCU A-10 win:

10 seeds: UCF, Santa Clara, VCU, Miami (OH)
11 seeds: NC State/Texas A&M, Missouri/SMU, South Florida, McNeese

If VCU were to lose, Miami (OH) would fall to Dayton and SMU would be dumped from the field.

Here's the average expectation heading into Sunday, courtesy of the Matrix, if VCU and South Florida both win:

10 seeds: UCF, Texas A&M, NC State, Santa Clara
11 seeds: Missouri/Miami (OH), VCU, SMU/Texas, South Florida

Here's what it looks like if both lose.

10 seeds: UCF, Texas A&M, NC State, Santa Clara
11 seeds: Missouri/Miami (OH), VCU/SMU, Dayton, Wichita State

Based on the expertise of staff writer Lukas Harkins and my constant research on this topic, I feel that it breaks down as such. I would keep the following in mind: from the 10 line onward, no more than 8 at-larges can get in

  • Probably not locks, but would be a generational stunner if they miss and would at least be surprising if in Dayton: UCF, Texas A&M, NC State
  • Stunning if they miss, but at least one if not two (if not all three) will play in Dayton: Santa Clara, Missouri, Miami (OH)
  • Sunday title hopeful that is more likely than not to be in with a loss, but it's no guarantee: VCU
  • Sunday title hopeful that is likely not in with a loss, but also, no guarantee: South Florida
  • Teams truly living on the razor's edge and desperate for a VCU win to have a chance: SMU, Texas, San Diego State, Auburn, and why not, New Mexico
  • Teams that should never, EVER be near the bubble, but welcome to 2026: Oklahoma
  • Team that should cause the Selection Committee's immediate disbandment and abolishment if placed in the field of 68: Indiana

Will the government's closure of DHS, affecting TSA, cause travel issues?

At no point upon signing up to work for Basket Under Review did I anticipate a government shutdown becoming a legitimate plotline in the placement of teams in the NCAA Tournament, but, well, here we are. The Hill claims that TSA problems loom for spring break, but they shoulda just said the NCAA Tournament.

This matters because of the NCAA saying it matters.

Larger programs will have no issues paying up for jets at smaller regional airports without serious TSA issues, but picking a team at random from the 12-16 lines, I'll imagine the Troy Trojans probably do not have a private jet lined up. Typically, the Selection Committee would like to pair the best 3 seed with the worst 14, the second-best with the second-worst, and so on...but because of the travel issues, I don't know that that can work this year? For a team like Troy, under 400 miles from both Greenville and Tampa, I wonder if this makes them a near-lock to one of those two locations, assuming a 3 (or 4) seed is headed there.

This likely cascades further for teams like Utah Valley (not really near any of the R64/R32 sites), Idaho (same), Tennessee State (located near BNA, an airport that struggles with TSA even on a good day), and many more. Even upper-tier programs have struggled to get to sites in the past; remember 2022 Colorado State? I can imagine this being a sustaining storyline long into Tuesday if not further.

How much do injuries matter...or don’t they?

My personal opinion has been the same for probably 15 years: they shouldn't. It is impossible to value injuries accurately or correctly, particularly late-season ones without significant sample sizes to show you if a team is or isn't impacted. Plus, many teams in the field of 68 will have suffered a key injury at some point. Do you value one injury, but not the other? It's a slippery slope that can lead you into madness and bad decisions.

As such, there are three major storylines to look for with injuries.

  • Where Texas Tech is seeded. The Red Raiders did win a couple of key games sans JT Toppin, but their final impression was getting obliterated by Iowa State, and a home loss to TCU in the final week doesn't help matters either. If seeded purely on what you've done this year, the Red Raiders should be squarely on the 4/5 cutline. If adjusted for Toppin, the committee could shove them down to a 6 or further, which seems unfair and dumb.
  • Where BYU is seeded. The Cougars looked totally lost in the post-Richie Saunders era before recovering to beat TTU in the season finale. They also looked fine against Houston in a close loss, which does matter considering Houston went on to grind Kansas into a fine paste on Friday and (fill with Arizona result). Again, by purely what they've done this year, BYU would most likely be a 6 seed...but without Saunders, the committee could put them as a 7 or 8.
  • Where North Carolina is seeded. This is the biggie. UNC's resume is strongly suggestive of a 5 seed, but they are clearly, demonstrably worse without Caleb Wilson and have played more like a 9 or 10 seed. If the committee wants to factor that in, you could rationalize a 6 or 7 for UNC, but again, they shouldn't.

Who goes to what locations?

A weird, true thing this year: the sites nearly fit perfect alphabetical order despite being on separate days. If only Portland came before Philadelphia. Anyway, I have these in alphabetical order, then in order of Thursday/Saturday, then Friday/Sunday.

Thursday/Saturday

Buffalo: This is an intriguing one for the committee. Michigan has told the NCAA it wants Philadelphia if it's the #1 overall seed, but Duke is...probably? the overall #1. Still, it wouldn't be hard to just send Michigan to Philly. I think Michigan State is pretty likely to end up here based on distance and logistics, though not 100%. I'll guess the other team is one of Michigan/Purdue, but I'm not confident.

Greenville: Duke is a mortal lock to end up here. The other team is a little roulette-y. Illinois, Alabama, Virginia, and Purdue are all within 600 miles of the site, and at least one 3-seed needs to be at a Thursday/Saturday site for First Four purposes. I'm going to guess that one of those four gets it, but no confidence in who. (The other factor here is that at least one 3-seed, or a 4, needs to play on Friday/Sunday for First Four purposes. TBD there.)

OKC: This is Houston and another team. I'll wager Nebraska has the best odds, but a Kansas or Iowa State 'steal' of the site wouldn't be a surprise.

Portland: This is a Gonzaga lock and pure roulette for the other spot. Arizona is going to San Diego, so it's not them. This is very likely a Whoever's Left on the 4 Line residency. Vanderbilt, maybe? Texas Tech? Arkansas?

Friday/Sunday

Philadelphia: As noted earlier, this is either Michigan or it isn't. I think UConn is near-certain to end up here regardless of their seed line. If it's not Michigan, this has a real chance of falling into Whoever's Left on the 4 Line, which means you could have Virginia or Kansas end up here. Very much up in the air.

San Diego: Arizona is 100% here. The other team...anyone's guess. I think this is another Whoever's Left on the 4 Line spot unless the committee wants to send another Big 12 team out this way, in which case Iowa State or someone could receive a shocker when they least want it.

St. Louis: I will wager that this is >70% to be Iowa State and Illinois. Certainly a chance one or the other gets sent elsewhere, but it's each team's closest locale amongst the eight sites.

Tampa: Florida will be slotted here without issue. The other team...I mean, Alabama? Logical enough. While I'm here, worth noting the Committee has loosened up a bit with regards to the First Four, meaning Florida could play whoever wins the Tuesday 16 vs. 16 game while Arizona gets the other.