All was seeming normal in the South Region, until havoc struck in the very last game. Iowa's stunning win over top-seeded Florida turned everything on its head, and forced us to re-evaluate everything.

As a result, Illinois vs. Houston and Iowa vs. Nebraska provide us two of the more drastic style clashes amongst the Sweet 16 matchups. While my original pick of Illinois winning the region remains alive, it will be a treacherous path to get there, just in a different way than expected.

Let's reset the South Region.

Why Houston, Illinois, Nebraska, and Iowa advanced

Houston and Illinois join Arkansas as the three teams that have yet to play a single-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament. Unlike the Razorbacks though, both squads in this region made it known they were the superior team from start to finish.

For Houston, an easy win against Idaho should have been expected. It was a bizarre one: the Cougars had their second-lowest offensive rebounding rate and lowest turnover rate against a mid-major opponent this season by a whopping 7.8%, but it didn't matter because they dominated in shotmaking. That is just the antithesis of what we've come to expect from a Kelvin Sampson team over the years.

Worry not, because Houston ran back to its scrappy ways against Texas A&M, dominating the glass 46-29 and taking 16 more field goal attempts in the easy 88-57 win. The Aggies made shots early, but once the well dried up against Houston's aggressive hedging scheme, they went a period of nine minutes scoring just four points, which turned a 25-24 Houston lead into an insurmountable 54-28 edge.

I think my favorite stat through Houston's dominant first two rounds of play is that despite averaging 1.27 points per possession, the Cougars did not have a single 20-point scorer, but had nine different performances in double-digits, spread across six different players.

Houston basically made Texas A&M look like a mid-major foe rather than an SEC squad in that contest, using physicality to make the game look easy while forcing its opponent into a variance-based 3-point shootout. That said, it will not be that easy moving forward.

Moving on to Illinois, where the Fighting Illini flexed two different muscles in their two games.

Illinois put up its single-best points per possession performance against Penn at 1.54PPP, putting on a clinic when it comes to shot profile. Illinois took 61 of its 74 shots at the rim or beyond the arc, shooting high percentages in both regions. The shot chart is one you would put in a basketball encyclopaedia.

Add in the fact that Illinois grabbed 53% of its misses and turned it over a hilarious three times, and it is pretty inevitable that a blowout occured.

Illinois' offense was nowhere near as proficient against VCU, but it was the defense that dominated. The nation's leader in free throw rate defense only allowed six attempts at the charity strip, and the sophisticated drop coverage allowed exactly what it hoped - challenged threes and mid-range looks.

VCU is one of the most rim-and-3 heavy offenses in the country, and their combined 18 makes from those two regions was the fourth-lowest the team had all season. Its eight assists were also the third-lowest on the year.

When the Fighting Illini dominate shot math, in other words taking assisted threes and rim attempts at a way higher rate than their opponent while forcing unassisted threes and non-rim twos, they become an exceptionally hard team to beat unless they are the significantly inferior shotmaking team.

Nebraska made Troy look like a JUCO team with how dominant of a performance it put on. I expected Troy's rim-and-3 offense to struggle with how few rim looks Nebraska allows and how average the Trojans were from deep, projecting just 54 points. And the Cornhuskers even outperformed that, allowing just 47 points on a comical five 2-point makes for Troy. When you add in the fact that three of those makes were in transition, Nebraska allowed two, yes two halfcourt makes inside the arc.

Then came the Vanderbilt game, my current leader for Game of the Tournament, which was an over-inflated ball away from a loss for the Huskers. The rim denial remained incredible, forcing Vanderbilt into a season-high 64% 3-point rate and a season-low 10 rim attempts, five fewer than its second-lowest mark.

Simply put, it takes a gargantuan shooting game and Nebraska being off the mark from deep to beat this team. That said, there were signs of struggle for Nebraska in that one, who lost shot volume by six and allowed nine more free throws. Duke Miles and Tyler Tanner going 4-for-18 from deep ended up being the difference.

The Cornhuskers' six losses all happen to be amongst their seven worst defensive rebounding games against power conference teams.

If they can't control the boards, given they do not get any second chances themselves, then the math stops favoring them. Not to mention, it allows teams more rim attempts on those second looks. After playing the No. 158 offensive rebounding team in Vanderbilt, and getting Iowa, who's No. 172 in that stat, two elite second chance teams in Illinois or Houston would await should they advance.

Lastly, Iowa obviously had the most notable result of this region, taking down top-seeded Florida, in what can only be considered a Ben McCollum masterclass.

Our very own Will Warren has been all over Iowa's ability to control a game to its own tempo (more on that coming up on the site), and the Hawkeyes were able to force the No. 31 pace team in the country in Florida to a season-low 61 possessions, 9.4 below its season average.

The poor-shooting Gators actually shot a higher percentage from deep than Iowa, but the Hawkeyes' ability to match their rim-heavy opponent around the hoop despite being significantly undersized ended up making the difference.

The craziest part is that Iowa star Bennett Stirtz went 0-for-9 from deep and it didn't matter. His five assists to zero turnovers were arguably more important. Iowa's guard duo of Stirtz and Kael Combs combining to cough it up just one time prevented Florida from getting out in transition.

It may sound simple, but between the slow pace, the lack of turnovers, and allowing Florida to grab just nine offensive rebounds, the Gators took only 46 field goal attempts, which is eight more than their second-fewest, and a whopping 36 fewer than their most. I'm no basketball coach, but if you are the significantly smaller and less-skilled roster, getting that opponent to take its lowest shot total of the season by far is probably the way to get it done.

My top three storylines

The best Sweet 16 game? If you believe in analytics, Illinois vs. Houston is the best Sweet 16 game by far. Not only are both teams in the top six of KenPom, making it closer to a Final Four tilt than one to kick off the second weekend, but that makes KenPom's pregame Thrill Score 89.2, or the No. 7 game of the entire season so far. To put it into perspective, last year's best Sweet 16 game in that regard was No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 24 BYU, which registered the 57th-best Thrill Score on the season. This one should be an absolute banger.

Familiar Foes. Iowa was able to make Florida feel super uncomfortable and throw the Gators off their rhythm, but that task will be much harder against a Nebraska team that has already seen them twice. The Hawkeyes had massive issues handling Nebraska's funky defense, putting up a 23% turnover rate in both games combined. These teams split, with Iowa picking up a tight home win and with a comeback bid on the road falling short in overtime. McCollum and Fred Hoiberg have arguably been two of the very best coaches in the country this season, so whichever can pull out new tricks in Round Three may be the one that advances.

Ultimate style clash. As someone who loves to break down the schematic differences between opponents, Illinois vs. Houston has my wheels turning. Illinois is dead-last in turnovers forced and Houston is No. 14. Illinois is 35th in offensive 2-point distance and Houston is 364th. Illinois allows the lowest free throw rate in the country and Houston allowed the highest in the Big 12. Illinois has trapped a ball screen fives times and Houston has done so 132 times. These teams could not possibly be more different.

Illinois' shot attempts by region
Houston's shot attempts by region

Key stats to watch

Let's break down one magic number for each of these four squads, and how their opponent matches up in that area.

Illinois: 1.19 PPP. The Fighting Illini are 1-6 when teams top 1.19 points per possession against them this season, and 25-2 when an opponent fails to reach that number. Given Illinois doesn't foul, allow second chances, or force turnovers, it largely just has to shrug and accept when a team goes ballistic from the field. Houston's raw points per possession is at 1.189 on the year (so literally exactly Illinois' magic number), and the Cougars have topped that number in 12 of their 26 Top 100 games this year.

Houston: 9. Unbelievably, nine is the amount of games the Houston Cougars have lost in the city of Houston since the start of the 2018-19 campaign. That is eight seasons, and nine losses. Of course, by my count, they are actually 0-1 in the Toyota Center with a 74-69 defeat to eventual Final Four squad Auburn. Whether it's fair that the Cougars get to essentially host a home game against an equal opponent in the Sweet 16 is one thing, but know that the crowd being largely in favor of the Cougars has largely been a dealbreaker for a decade.

Nebraska: 8+. The Cornhuskers are third amongst power conference teams in points off cuts per game. But Nebraska is just 2-4 when it gets less than eight points off that action, which accounts for two thirds of its losses. It scored 17 points off cuts in its win over Iowa, and just seven in its loss. The team's inverted offense needs this ball movement to make up for a lack of individual creators. For its part, Iowa is the 333rd-best cutting defense in the country by points per possession, and Nebraska is 4-0 against the Big Ten teams ranked lower in that stat than the Hawkeyes.

Iowa: 58%. More passing... more problems? Very weirdly, Iowa is 2-9 against power conference competition when it has an assist rate over 58%, and 13-2 when its assist rate is lower than that. It makes little sense, but the numbers are what they are. Though Iowa's offense admittedly was better in its loss to Nebraska versus its win, the Hawkeyes still only had five assists in victory against 17 in defeat. This is particularly notable because Nebraska allows the 19th-highest assist rate in the entire country.

Thoughts on Elite Eight potential matchups

No. 2 Houston vs. No. 4 Nebraska

KenPom's No. 4 and No. 6 defenses and two squads that all-out rim deny with extremely opposite offensive profiles would be such a fun watch. The team that has never made a Final Four against the team that has made two in the last six years.

Houston would obviously hold a major home court advantage here, but with the way that Nebraska's fans have traveled, you never know. Because of the way both teams play defense, this would be a true battle of shotmaking between Nebraska's pass-heavy, inverted offense, and Houston's dribble-heavy, guard dominant offense.

This would be a matchup that Kingston Flemings could dominate if he has one of those games on his patented pull-up jumpers. It's also one that could net Pryce Sandfort open 3-point looks if Houston loses him on their many defensive rotations. Houston would be approximately 4/5-point favorites on KenPom.

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 4 Nebraska

A Big Ten round three for the second-straight game for Nebraska, this is the game for you if you love 3-pointers. There were a total of 120 threes and 113 twos in these two meetings, one that each team won on the road.

However, the math was not on Nebraska's side in these meetings, even though it was a split decision. Illinois took 33 more free throws combined in the two games, and won the rebounding battle 74-54. Nebraska won the first matchup with its fifth-highest 3-point percentage against a Top 100 team all year.

That's before mentioning Kylan Boswell missed the second meeting due to injury, and Illinois still won despite Nebraska actually topping its gaudy 3-point output from the previous victory. All told, I think the Huskers would much rather see Houston should they advance. Illinois would be approximately 4-point favorites on KenPom.

No. 2 Houston vs. No. 9 Iowa

The speed of this game may cause a ripple in time with how slow it will be. With two of the 15 slowest teams in the nation, this one has 57 possessions written all over it.

In that case, every possession would be amplified, and Houston, who has the better point per possession offense and defense would have an edge. The Cougars' patented trapping defense would force the ball out of Bennett Stirtz's hands constantly and make the rest of the Hawkeyes beat them. Houston famously forced fellow high-usage point guard Braden Smith into just seven shots and 15 assists in a tight win over Purdue in last year's Sweet 16.

My random tidbit about assist rate would also be notable here, as if Iowa struggles when it has to swing the ball on possessions, it would be in big trouble against the way that Houston encourages ball movement. Houston would be approximately 7/8-point favorites on KenPom.

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 9 Iowa

Another Big Ten rematch! What a league. These teams only played once in the regular season, a thrilling Sunday tilt that saw Illinois build a lead as large as 18 early, before seeing Iowa close to as close as four in the game's final minute.

Iowa actually won shot volume in that contest, but couldn't keep Illinois' guards out of the paint, with Boswell and Andrej Stojakovic combining to go 12-of-19 at the hoop. That pressure also forced four fouls on Stirtz, forcing him to play his second-fewest minutes in Big Ten play at 33. He hasn't played fewer since.

That said, I think Iowa would prefer to see Illinois than Houston should it advance, because while Illinois' size is an issue for the shorter Hawkeyes group, it will be able to run its tremendous pick-and-roll sets without major disruption, as I previously mentioned, Illinois is one of the least aggressive PNR defenses in the country while Houston is amongst the most aggressive. Illinois would be approximately 7-point favorites on KenPom.

Prediction

I had Illinois over Florida in my original Elite Eight guess, and the Fighting Illini have done nothing through two games to get me to back off. With the Gators out of the picture, I'm expecting one of the best stories in the country in Nebraska to create an all-Big Ten matchup over the weekend.