Get ready to reset! The Midwest Region is down to four. As your original Midwest previewer, I'm here to break down why the four teams are here, statlines to look for, and what I'm thinking about potential Elite Eight matchups. (I am responsible for coverage of the two matchups in the Sweet Sixteen watchlists, so look for my previews there.) Onward.
Why Michigan, Iowa State, Alabama, and Tennessee advanced
Michigan: The Wolverines are here because, well, they've been no worse than a top-3 team the entire way. Why stop now? The Big Ten lined up so deeply this year that even 9-seed Saint Louis, at 34th overall on KenPom, was Michigan's second-worst opponent since Valentine's Day. 16-seed Howard was their second-worst opponent of the year, only topping #228 La Salle, a team Michigan obliterated by 52 in December.
While the defense didn't have its greatest weekend ever, it was entirely meaningless because of how machine-like their offense operated. The Wolverines dumped a combined 1.38 PPP on Howard and SLU, shot 71% from two, out-rebounded both opponents with ease, and got more free throws. Oh, and they also shot 47% from three. We've seen many worse two-game weekends in world history.
Even the Howard game looks a bit worse than it really was. For one, the Bison not only shot 10-16 from 3 in the first half, which is already pretty good for a team who shot 35.8% from deep on the season. They hit eight in a row, a statistical anomaly so hilarious that I can only sum it up as "a thing that would happen once in every 3,571 games," per my calculations. If Howard even hits just five of those eight, it's a different ballgame, Michigan wins by 30, and no one thinks about this game twice.
In both games, Michigan let their opponent hang around for about a half, then smashed the gas in the getaway car with about 15 minutes to go. Given Michigan's excellent eight-man rotation, pretty much any of them could be deemed The Guy, but this weekend it felt like Michigan's Guy was Aday Mara. Not only did he average a remarkable 17.5 PPG/6 RPG/5.5 APG statline, he blocked seven shots across the two games while committing just four fouls. With Mara on the court, Michigan dumped 1.47 PPG on Howard and Saint Louis and outscored their opponents by 27 in his 47 minutes.
It feels rude to even select one guy - Morez Johnson was awesome, Yaxel Lendeborg was awesome, the backcourt had great moments - but clearly, in the Tournament so far, Mara is Michigan's engine.
Iowa State: The story here easily could've been the absence of Joshua Jefferson, and perhaps as the week wears on it will be. Jefferson, no worse than a top-five player in the sport this year, sprained his ankle against Tennessee State and was held out of Sunday's win over Kentucky. His health status, good or bad, will hang heavily over the Cyclones' hilariously late tip against Tennessee late Friday night.
But in Jefferson's absence, seemingly the entire team stepped up to replace his production, headlined for me by the guy who took his spot in the lineup. Nate Heise is a former Northern Iowa starter who transferred into the Cyclones last year, taking on a role as a sort of 'sixth starter' who was there for defense first and scoring far, far down the list. In Big 12 play this year, Heise averaged a sub-10% Usage Rate. Even on the full season, his 11.2% USG% is the third-lowest of any high-major starter in 2025-26.
This year, Heise was mostly reprising his 2024-25 role. However, there were two things hidden in the data that I didn't recognize until diving in a little too late: for one, Heise's on-court minutes rose by more than anyone else on the roster when Jefferson went to the bench. This makes sense to some extent because Heise is more of a 3 than a 4, and you're not unsettling Milan Momcilovic from the 3. More important is this: when Jefferson was out of games, Heise's USG% rose to 15%, he shot 46% from 3, and he became arguably ISU's most important non-star player. That's how you get to a 34-point two-game outing this weekend, including five threes and some back-breaking drives to the rim.
If Heise continues to play this well, the argument can be made that Iowa State should survive to at least the Elite Eight without Jefferson. All of Tennessee, Michigan, and Alabama are much better than Kentucky, but Heise's quiet emergence gives the Cyclones a fighting chance to survive and advance.
Alabama: I'm sure this will stun everyone, but the team who is perhaps most reliant among those left in the Tournament on shots going in had a lot of shots go in. It wasn't always this way, as against Hofstra, the Tide only (only!) shot 33% from deep while Hofstra shot 46%. In that game, they needed to have their third-best rebounding performance of the entire season offensively to get over the finish line.
But against Texas Tech? Oh buddy, did the shots go in. Alabama nailed 19 threes, which is only their third-highest output of the year, and what they didn't hit, they got back on the offensive boards by rebounding 46.2% of their missed shots. Remember one paragraph ago, when I said Alabama had their third-best offensive rebounding performance of the season against Hofstra? Well, its status as third-best lasted all of two days, as the Tide getting back 46% of their misses versus TTU is their new third-best output.
Of course, banking on making 15+ threes while getting back 40%+ of your misses won't work forever. After all, that's a combo the Tide only produced twice this year (Texas Tech and against Yale in December), and Alabama was only the SEC's 11th-best offensive rebounding team while being one of the very rare 1-4 seeds in Tournament history to have a negative rebounding and turnover margin.
Of the six 1-4 seeds to go before them with these numbers, '26 Alabama has become just the second (2002 Arizona) to actually reach the Sweet Sixteen. Fellow 2026 member Kansas lost in the Round of 32 yesterday, albeit after a very tough battle. Alabama will have to break history and what we look for most in our Elite Eight and onward contenders. Can they do it? Well, if you hit 40% of your threes and continue to rebound better than you've rebounded all year, anything's possible.
Tennessee: There are some opinions you develop throughout the year that go in and out of looking brilliant. Some age well, such as calling Kentucky a very obvious candidate to flop and saying you should buy Florida in December. Some do not, such as telling people to sell high on Nebraska...in December. One that I developed in August and would not let loose of even when it looked to be the most foolish opinion imaginable in certain situations: Ja'Kobi Gillespie is Tennessee's most indispensable, most impactful, and best player. Period.
This has been met with controversy from Tennessee fans, who see the team's leading scorer, passer, shooter, and playmaker as more of a downgrade than something to celebrate. It's somewhat natural to act like that after four years of Zakai Zeigler, Tennessee legend, but I think some have glossed over just how great Gillespie's one year in orange is likely to go down as. He's tracking to be the program's second player in history to average 15 PPG and 5 APG (Jim England, 1971) and will be just the SEC's fifth player ever to go 15/5 with 90+ made threes (Acuff, Mark Sears, Jared Harper, and Vandy's Frank Seckar in the '90s).
To see the second weekend, Tennessee needed someone to step up with heroics, and perhaps no one was more heroic than Gillespie, who put up 21 and 6 against Virginia and was the best offensive guard on the floor while making the single best shot of the game:
But Gillespie, much as was the case the entire season, couldn't do it alone. Star freshman Nate Ament recovered from an ugly Round of 64 game with 16 & 4, including multiple huge stops. Tennessee's iffy frontcourt stepped up with 27 total points, including a tremendous 7/8/4-block statline by Felix Okpara, who is frustratingly incomplete on offense but remains a terrific defender. Yet no one surprised me more than Bishop Boswell, who had his best game in orange: 13 points, 9 assists, several huge stops, and a two-way Box Plus Minus of +14.2, the second-best in the game behind Thjis De Ridder.
Gillespie is Tennessee's best and most important piece, but it always helps to have a great supporting cast. When Tennessee's supporting cast shows up, they're pretty tough to send home.
My top three storylines
Well...can anyone here beat Michigan? The regional rest offers the following odds, via Bart Torvik:
I mean, yeah, Michigan is technically more likely to fail to make the Final Four than not. It's a coin-flip in either direction, and we all know how coin flips go. Sometimes you win a lot of money on them! Sometimes you lose it all. The problem is that I can't easily identify who would beat Michigan here, short of Iowa State being at full strength or a massive shooting variance game in one direction or the other. Alabama will have a real shot, but I would love their odds way more if they had Aden Holloway available. While that issue hasn't shown up yet, a Michigan team that routinely shreds opposing guards into fine matter and forces a lot of threes is a bad matchup to me when said opponent is missing a key guard that hits more threes than anyone else on the team.
How healthy is Joshua Jefferson? Because if Mr. Jefferson is anything close to 100% against Tennessee on Friday, Iowa State is instantly a very serious threat to defeat (probably) Michigan on Sunday and advance to their first Final Four since 1944. This Iowa State team is already no worse than a consensus top-8 team in the nation, and at full strength I would argue for their status as perhaps being stronger than anyone in the Big Ten not named Michigan. The Wolverines aren't infallible, and the easiest way to lose is to play another great team.
Can either star SEC guard change these narratives? Labaron Philon (Alabama) and Ja'Kobi Gillespie (Tennessee) would be the reason for an upset in either affair. Both are among the very best guards in the nation, and for a variety of reasons, each player's team (Tennessee by roster construction, Alabama by legal problems) is imperfectly suited to their strengths. Can either find enough from their supporting cast to reach what would be a surprising Elite Eight for either player in what's likely each player's final season in college? (Gillespie is out of eligibility, while Philon, a projected top-20 Draft pick, is likely gone for the pros.)
Key stats and/or trends to watch
All via Evan Miyakawa's incredible site.
33%: A pretty simple one for you. When Michigan shoots 33% or better from deep under Dusty May, they're 35-3. More importantly, they've had one game all year that's been within single digits when they've shot this well. Michigan's shot volume and frontcourt edge is so severe on Alabama that if Michigan shoots 35% from deep, Bama probably has to toss up a 50% effort to out-pace it.
22% and 25%: Easy peasy, right? When Iowa State forces their opponent to turn it over on 22% or greater of possessions and keeps the opponent from getting back more than 25% of their opponent's missed shots, they're 44-6 under TJ Otzelberger. More importantly, when they do neither in a game, they're 24-24. Tennessee's TO%/OREB% averages this year are 17.3% and 44.8%, but against top-25 defenses, the OREB% average drops to 36.5%.
48%: For all the heat about Alabama's shooting, what they do defensively is going to matter way more in this game. Under Nate Oats, since 2021, the Tide are 77-12 when holding their opponent under 48% from two. This year, they're 14-3 when doing it...and their worst 2PT% allowed (61.1%) is below Michigan's average of 61.5%. Plus, in the six games Alabama won this year when having an opponent shoot 52% or better from two, the Tide averaged 95.5 PPG...also worse than anything Michigan has allowed all season. Something's gotta give.
48.1%: Not to one-up Alabama, but Tennessee has gotten pretty good at it under Rick Barnes in recent years. This one is also about opposing 2PT%: when Tennessee holds their opponent to 48.1% or worse from two, they're 17-1. The lone loss: Iowa State's Big 12 conference mate Kansas, who defeated Tennessee in a very strange Players Era game. ISU's average 2PT% this year is 55.6%, but their average 2PT% against top-25 defenses is 46.9%.
Thoughts on Elite Eight potential matchups
These are ranked in likelihood of happening at Torvik, NOT by seed or team or whatever. Take that into note when reading how in-depth or not the research you're seeing is.
(1) Michigan vs. (2) Iowa State
For various reasons, this would be a serious Game of the Year contender. I think this is arguably about as good as it gets in terms of philosophy battles, both in roster construction and in actual coaching tactics. Plus, both teams do things defensively that I could see giving the opposing offense some real problems. Here's hoping.
Iowa State's perimeter pressure and ball pressure in general would have to be turned up to the max in this game to maximize Michigan's potential for turnovers, because if they can't force many, it could be curtains pretty fast for a team that will be heavily outmatched in the frontcourt. Almost no one gets true post-ups against ISU because of all the doubles, but Michigan is exceptionally efficient both in 1-on-1 coverage and in the kickout situations these create. However, consistently this year, Michigan has fared worst against hard hedges that force Elliot Cadeau into quick decisions. Against hedge/blitz coverage, Michigan's TO% rises and they generally struggle to create the frontcourt edge they need. Watch the Duke and Nebraska games for an example of what I'm talking about here.
On the other end, an ISU offense that's fared worse against drop coverage (because of non-elite shooting up top, save for Milan) and teams who can switch convincingly 1 through 4 is probably in for a bad time against a Michigan team that regularly does both. ISU typically fares best against teams who collapse hard in the post or on Lipsey, which frees up their shooters (Milan) (also others) on the perimeter to get open in 4-on-3 situations. Michigan...does not do that. They play it straight up and are remarkably, terribly confident they are better than you. Dusty will mix and match coverages a lot throughout the game and even tosses in a zone or occasional token press. In a game where two defenses figure to dominate, I'd take the offense I trust more to generate enough points, which is Michigan.
(1) Michigan vs. (6) Tennessee
I went to Tennessee. My father went to Michigan. I grew up a fan of both programs, and now, for the THIRD TIME IN FIFTEEN YEARS, an important NCAA Tournament game involving the two could happen. Most oppressed man in history.
I think this would be a pretty ugly matchup for the Vols, who are hyper-reliant on off-ball motion and whatever Ja'Kobi Gillespie can produce through endless ball screens. Michigan may be the only team left in the field as good at denying off-ball motion as Tennessee is, which will make the other end of the court interesting when Tennessee shuts down M's off-ball screens but it's less important to Michigan's whole thing than it is for Tennessee. Against the only comparable thing to Michigan in the SEC, which is Florida, Tennessee got dump-trucked and put up 0.9 PPP despite shooting 40% (on 15 attempts) from deep.
I could see a world where Tennessee hangs simply because Michigan really isn't elite at all in shot volume the way Tennessee is offensively. The Wolverines are susceptible to giving up offensive rebounds, which Purdue (truly the Big Ten Tennessee in so many ways) exploited to hang at home by getting back 35% of their missed shots. But Michigan's just so much better in the half-court oriented game Tennessee would want to play that I can't really see a shocker here, though admittedly I'd really hope for one.
(4) Alabama vs. (2) Iowa State
This would be pretty wild, huh? The closest thing ISU plays to an Alabama style in the Big 12 is...I guess Texas Tech? While Texas Tech has consistently had better frontcourts than Alabama, you could say Alabama's had superior backcourts. Either way, Iowa State is 3-1 against Texas Tech in the Otz/McCasland crossover era, and all three of the wins went roughly the same way: Texas Tech is unable to create the open threes via rim pressure they can against everyone else, and their defense is unable to slow down Iowa State on the other end. I think it would be pretty similar here, with ISU reaching their first Final Four in 82 years.
(4) Alabama vs. (6) Tennessee
Lucky for you, we saw this one twice already. Tennessee has routinely been the best team in the SEC (them or Florida) at shutting down the spread-n'-shred Oats style of ball, winning five in a row prior to a late-season home loss, and as nauseous as an SEC battle for the program's first-ever Final Four would make me I would trust Tennessee in this matchup a lot more than I would other options. Alabama's P&R defense is actually better than most think, but they remain horrendous at suppressing opponent shot volume. Across the two games with Tennessee this year, the Tide allowed Tennessee to get back an astonishing 39 offensive rebounds, and in a third game Tennessee is probably (hopefully?) not shooting 22% from deep/missing 19 layups again.
Prediction
No changes for me: I still like Michigan over Iowa State. The Jefferson injury has thrown a wrench in these plans, though, and it's very realistic this is Michigan over Tennessee instead. I would be pretty surprised if Alabama defeats Michigan, for what it's worth.