HOW (AND WHY) THEY GOT HERE:
- Top seed Duke's path to DC certainly wasn't easy. Siena was up 13 in the second half, and even live this felt like the moment we, and probably even the Saints themselves, knew they lost.
Duke's readiness to admit, even at halftime, that they weren't prepared and expected to have a "cakewalk" was honestly an unprecedented event for me in my 40+ years of watching the NCAA Tournament, but eventually Duke's zone prevented Cam Boozer from being target on the Gavin Doty ball screens (Siena scored just .41 PPP in 12 zone offense possessions) and on the other end Boozer started drawing his relentless contact in inverted PNRs.
Reinforcements came for the Blue Devils in the form of Big Pat Ngongba ahead of the TCU matchup, and despite a shaky first half, Duke looked like the number one overall seed in the second half, outscoring the Frogs by 19 en route to a blowout. Duke outscored TCU 41-22 at the rim, and while the Blue Devils sported a rough 25% turnover rate against TCU's relentlessly hedging and double teams, it eventually became a matter of non turnover possessions being Duke buckets with the way the Boozers and even Ngongba in his 13 minutes moved the ball over the top.
That second half really helped walk Duke Nation off the ledge, and renewed optimism for the Blue Devils to win the regional in DC, especially with news of Caleb Foster perhaps being surprisingly active.
- 2 seed UConn also entered the first two rounds shorthanded, and found themselves in a strategic dogfight with Furman to open the tournament. Furman was running the same screening and cutting action the Huskies were, and didn't have much answer for stud frosh Alex Wilkins on the ball, especially without Silas Demary on the floor. The Huskies pulled off the stereotypical survive and advance however, thanks to a monster game from Tarris Reed, who Furman could not defend 1v1, but kept trying despite Braylon Mullins and Solo Ball tossing up brick after brick from the perimeter (combined 1-14 from 3, UConn was 5-25 as a team). UConn patiently ran their layered actions, and eventually Reed was left with a deep seal 1v1 with plenty of space with the defense lifted, and it was an autobucket almost every time.
Reed finished with 31 on 12-15 shooting (17 points were in the post alone) and grabbed 11 of UConn's 18 offensive boards.
Against UCLA in the second round, Demary made his return and provided some resistance against Donovan Dent and UCLA's PNR attack, but Mick Cronin was determined not to let Reed carry UConn's offense at the rim again. Reed finished with just 10 points, but the Hurley and the UConn perpetual motion machine was in their bag, scoring 1.2 PPP via off-ball screen and 1.3 PPP via cut.
Like Duke, the Huskies are headed to DC with presumably better health after some much needed rest for injured key players.
- 3 seed Michigan State dispatched North Dakota State with ease, a team similarly constructed schematically both offensively and defensively. Jeremy Fears had some issues with NDSU's hedge, but otherwise Sparty was flawless, and when MSU shoots 10-20 from 3 against you, you're probably going to have an early bedtime. MSU's second round matchup against Louisville saw more hot perimeter shooting, with Trey Fort rising from the ashes to help lead an 11-26 3PT effort, which means dating back to the Big Ten tournament, MSU has shot 32-69 from 3 over their last 3 games. Coen Carr and Trey Fort going a combined 5-9 from 3 in a game kind of torpedoes defensive gameplans, and Sparty didn't really face a heavy PNR offense in Buffalo (although Wooley and Conwell were really starting to get downhill in the ball screen), which had been a major issue down the stretch of the regular season (coming to a head against UCLA in Chicago).
- 5 seed St. John's simply outphysicaled and outathleted Northern Iowa in the first round, who never fully recovered from that initial Mike Tyson punch in the mouth, and then escaped Kansas' comeback thanks to Dylan Darling (his only bucket of the game) and some poor foul to give management from the Jayhawks.
The Johnnies really controlled that game for 35 minutes with their ball pressure (23% KU turnover rate) and physicality (+15 in FG attempts), but Flory Bidunga held the St. John's offense to 20 rim points, their fewest since the Great UConn Disaster, and Darryn Peterson provided some elite isolation offense down the stretch.
8-12 3PT shooting from Bryce Hopkins in Buffalo has me concerned as the Johnnies take to DC, as that probably doesn't happen even in shootaround, but the physicality and press was vintage St. John's all week, allowing just .79 PPP in 44 press possessions and generating a 21% turnover rate in those possessions.
TOP THREE STORYLINES TO TRACK IN DC:
1) Is Duke Healthy?
- Even in just 13 minutes we saw the impact Pat Ngongba has for the Blue Devils on both ends of the floor. He negated TCU's hedge and help by lifting the defense several times, and this pass to Cayden Boozer was the beginning of the end for the Frogs.
Ngongba also grades out as Duke's most important defensive player as well, per EvanMiya efficiency data, and is the centerpiece of everything Scheyer wants to do in terms of rim denial. If Caleb Foster is able to return as well, as reports seem to indicate is possible, the Blue Devils will be rested, prepped, and more healthy than many anticipated before this tournament started, and Scheyer is going to want to have that extra ballhandler against St. John's.
2) Coaching Royalty Descends on DC
- Dan Hurley, Tom Izzo, and Rick Pitino have 17 Final Fours and 5 national championships between them, and let's throw in Jon Scheyer's national championship as a player, national championship as an assistant, and Final Four appearance last season for good measure. That brings us up to a total of 21 Final Fours and 7 national championships. No matter how the cookie crumbles in DC between these 4 teams, we'll have an elite coaching matchup for one more Final Four berth out of this group.
3) UConn vs St. John's Part IV?
- I believe the last time two teams met in the NCAA Tournament for the fourth time in one season was the 2000-2001 tournament when Duke completed the largest comeback in Final Four history, trailing Maryland by 22 at one point-made even worse by the fact that Duke's infamous Miracle Minute/Gone in 60 Seconds win in College Park was the same season.
KEY STATS AND/OR TRENDS TO WATCH:
All trend data via EvanMiya
DUKE:
58% Assist Rate- Duke has lost 24 games in the entirety of the Jon Scheyer era, but 19 have come when the Blue Devils' assist rate has fallen below a 58% threshold. This is an offense built on player movement, ball movement, and elite off-ball design. St. John's wants to force you into isolation (96th percentile rate) and allowed the lowest assist rate in the Big East at 49.8% (46.7% season long). Duke had some turnover issues against TCU, but moved the ball over the hedges and double teams to the tune of a 63% assist rate. Against Siena, 46% assist rate, and we almost witnessed an alltime upset. Duke's two losses this season saw a 56% assist rate against Texas Tech and 50% rate against North Carolina, two drop coverages who force you to beat them in ball screens and off the dribble.
UCONN:
56% 2PT Offense- Despite UConn's 3PT issues of late this is arguably more important for their in game floor. Under Dan Hurley, UConn is 85-7 when they hit this mark in 2PT offense, 61-30 when they fall below. 4 of UConn's 5 losses this year saw them fail to hit this 56% mark, and Michigan State's elite gap help makes them one of the best rim deterrent defenses in the country, and they allow just 48% in 2PT% defense, a top 50 mark KenPom. Tarris Reed vs Carson Cooper = Popcorn.
MICHIGAN STATE:
51% 2PT Offense- Sparty's 2PT% target is much lower than UConn's, likely because they're so dominant on the offensive glass under Izzo. In the last 5 seasons however, Sparty has a losing record (42-44) when failing to hit this mark, 79-11 when at or above 51%. UConn was the best 2PT% defense in the Big East (thanks in large to St. John's going 6-36 at UConn), and allowed 45.7% on the season. All 7 Sparty losses this year saw them below this 51% 2PT offense threshold.
ST. JOHN'S:
74% Defensive Rebounding Rate- St. John's is 48-5 under Rick Pitino when they hold an opposing offense to a 26% or lower offensive rebounding rate, 33-19 when they fail to do so. All 6 of the Johnnies' losses this year came with a 30% or higher offensive rebounding rate by their opponents. Duke is the 5th best offensive rebounding team in the country per KenPom, at a 38.5% rate. Duke has been held below that 26% "magic number" for the Johnnies just 5 times this season, but their lowest offensive rebounding rate of the entire season was the loss at MSG to Texas Tech, and their worst offensive efficiency performance was also one of those 5 games, where they had just a 25% OREB rate against Michigan State.
THOUGHTS ON SWEET 16 MATCHUPS:
DUKE vs ST. JOHN'S
- Duke's defense becomes much more dominant with Big Pat Ngongba on the floor, and gives them back that versatility where they can switch 1-5, hedge effectively, or play a dominant drop. Duke's total ability to wipe out the rim with Ngongba is key against St. John's, who owns an 82nd percentile rim rate and wants to get downhill out of their handoffs and dribble penetration more so than traditional PNRs. Duke allows just a 2nd percentile rim rate, and wants to bait you into tough jump shots (92nd percentile rate allowed, 94th percentile efficiency rating). The Johnnies are not a strong jump shooting team (Bryce Hopkins' week in San Diego notwithstanding), nor are they a particularly efficient halfcourt offense, a mediocre 65th percentile in efficiency rating.
- This brings us to our second key point: Duke vs the St. John's press. Pitino has really cranked up the press rate in the tournament to date, showcasing his defense's length and physicality, but as Kansas adjusted to the press, we saw the Johnnies' offense get in stuck in the mud, something of a recurring theme this season. Duke didn't see a ton of press in the ACC, but it was something of an issue against both Florida State and Virginia in the ACC tournament, both games played without Caleb Foster. Cam Boozer is a natural press antidote, but he's not without his turnover issues, and Cayden Boozer vs the sustained St. John's pressure isn't an ideal scenario- effective Foster minutes would be a game changer along the lines of Ngongba's minutes against TCU. In general though, Duke was a dominant transition defense, allowing just a 9th percentile rate, and if that's the case against the Johnnies, I don't see them scoring enough against Duke's set defense with Ngongba back, especially with Duke's ability to limit St. John's on the offensive glass- there's unlikely to be a shot volume domination by the Johnnies like they enjoyed against Kansas.
- Duke's offense in the halfcourt is a symphony of off-ball movement and cutting around Cam Boozer's gravity (88th percentile off-ball screen rate and the most efficient cutting offense in the country)- this can be an effective antidote against the St. John's ball pressure.
- Ultimately, this game is going to be decided by physicality. How effective can the Johnnies' pressure being in force Duke out of their sets and the aforementioned ball movement noted in EvanMiya's key stats and trends? The battle in the paint is going to be tremendous as well, with Ngongba, Zuby Ejiofor, Maliq Brown, Cam Boozer, Bryce Hopkins, and Dillon Mitchell all promising some slobberknocker basketball. The key for me is Cam Boozer's isolation game vs Dillon Mitchell if St. John's is going to limit the Duke assist rate like they've done to opponents nearly all season.
UCONN vs MICHIGAN STATE
- Against UConn, I always immediately look at how opposing defenses defend off the ball, and the returns ain't great for Sparty: 2nd percentile efficiency rating on a 55th percentile rate, per Synergy data. This reared its ugly head in what was Sparty's worst loss of the season at Minnesota. The Gophers scored 1.21 PPP overall and an astounding 1.4 PPP off the ball.
MSU's hedge and general ethos defensively is elite at cutting off the dribble and denying ball handlers at point of attack- that's not really a "thing" in UConn's offensive system, and the Huskies usually redirect offense away from hedge/help defenses, but struggle against strong drop coverages that camp out on the perimeter and switch the off ball stuff. UConn's sets are also elite at detouring defensive traffic away from Tarris Reed and letting him go to work 1v1 in the post. Izzo is generally going to defend 1v1 in the post with Carson Cooper, who allows just .68 PPP defending mano y mano in the post. The two way post battle is definitely one to watch, especially if Solo Ball and Braylon Mullins continue to struggle to shoot the ball, as 3-25 from 3 against this Sparty defensive scheme is simply not going to cut it, especially if Reed is being neutralized.
- While UConn has struggled to shoot the ball this tournament, Sparty has ironically thrived, as noted above. UConn however deploys the opposite ethos defensively as their counterpart, as they generally want to defend with as little help as possible (although Reed will be in hedge and recover on the Fears ball screen). As noted, these are opposing defensive philosophies, and where MSU denies the rim at all costs with their gap help, UConn is funneling you off the 3PT line via ball screens and isos and into Reed's enormous wingspan at the rim. This makes UConn an elite rim 2PT% defense, but also can expose Reed to foul trouble. But generally speaking, forcing Fears and the Sparty offense into isolation and keeping them in front is the way to go, as you don't want to be lobbed to death behind your defense by Coen Carr and the third highest dunk rate overall in the country.
- Finally there's the all important transition battle against Sparty. Tom Izzo is the undisputed champion of hunting early offense, and this year's MSU offense is typically elite in that regard, sporting an 82nd percentile transition rate with a 91st percentile efficiency rating (per Synergy data). UConn however allows transition at just a 29th percentile rate with a 91st percentile efficiency rating. If we're considering this to be a halfcourt contest, which I think it will, I like the alignment of UConn's halfcourt offense (assuming someone actually hits jump shots) vs Sparty's halfcourt defensive scheme more than vice versa.
EAST REGIONAL FINALS PREDICTION:
I wrote the East Region preview here at Basket Under Review, and like the chalk at the rim: Duke vs UConn with Duke advancing to Indy. I'm not going to hedge off that now, so I'm sticking with my pre-tournament read.
