Happy early New Year, everybody. This is Year Four of a tradition: re-evaluating every single conference at the New Year, both on a national (for multi-bid leagues) and regional (who’s going to actually win the conference) level. Given that conference play has still yet to begin for over half the conferences, this is a useful snapshot of where everyone stands at this halfway point of the season.

Anyway, the below post is going to be very, very long, so if that’s not your thing, I will not blame you for CTRL + F'ing your league of choice and/or exiting out of this post immediately. Still, as someone who covers college basketball at-large, I do find it useful to see where everyone’s at a hair over two months before Selection Sunday. All Tournament/conference percentages referenced in this post are via Bart Torvik’s site, by the way.

This year’s ranges on the NATIONAL level are the same as previous editions. LOCKS are those at 97% or above to make the NCAA Tournament. We have 18 of those so far. LIKELIES have a 70-97% shot to get in. Why 70-97%? I don’t know, sounded good. Then there’s the BUBBLES (those between 30-70% to get in), the UNLIKELIES (5-30%), and MAYBE NEXT YEARS (under 5%).

Then there’s the REGIONAL side for all 31 leagues. This will represent the conference’s FAVORITES (those with 50% or better odds of at least a shared title), CONTENDERS (25-50%), DARKHORSES (10-25%), and WILDCARDS (5-10%). You don’t need to know those at 4.9% or lower barring a real shocker. This year, I didn’t list the individual percentages for each, instead choosing to separate into the categories and let those speak for themselves. More fun to leave a little mystery.

All simulated conference results in here are simply picking out the first one a weighted randomizer spat out for me. Please do not take them seriously whatsoever.

Lastly, I have a new addition this year: simulated conference tournament results. This is to give you a fun piece at the end with a mock NCAA Tournament, because it seemed fun at the time and definitely did not cause me to stay up an extra hour finishing said mock bracket. Do enjoy.

These conferences are ranked according to KenPom. Also, this is over 12,000 words. Let's roll.

The Big Three

SEC

NATIONAL

  • LOCKS (97% or higher to make the Tournament): Vanderbilt, Alabama, Tennessee, Florida
  • LIKELIES (70-97% to make it): Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky
  • BUBBLES (30-70% to make it): LSU, Auburn, Texas, Texas A&M
  • UNLIKELIES (5-30% to make it): Oklahoma, Missouri
  • MAYBE NEXT YEARS (<5% to make it): Ole Miss, South Carolina, Mississippi State
  • Expected tournament teams: 8.9 (#2 nationally)

The good news is that the SEC has under a 0.2% chance of repeating their efforts from last year, when they landed 14 teams in a 68-team field that's supposed to represent all of college basketball. Torvik gives negligible at best odds to anything beyond 11 teams, and while that's still way too many for one conference it's at least tolerable.

The odds are still favorable towards this mega-league having a major March impact - 54% odds of at least one Final Four team, around a 40/60 shot at a 1 seed - but it's a clear step down from last year, which is kind of a relief. The SEC was so far beyond all others last year that it made the discourse surrounding the league putrid. Bringing it back to the pack somewhat, even if I personally believe it's still the best league by a small margin, is a net good for college basketball.

You can lock in all of Vandy, Alabama, Tennessee, and Florida into the future field, and you'll probably see Arkansas/Georgia/Kentucky in it as well, despite UK's weak start to the year. That gives you a base of seven. The problem for this league: until someone steps up, seven is kind of it. All of LSU, Auburn, Texas, TAMU, Oklahoma, and Mizzou have a real chance to see the Tournament, but none are true favorites to get there save for perhaps Auburn, and all have major warts that could send their season spiraling with one bad five-game stretch. As such, this could be a strange grouping where the conference is the best in America but only half of its teams see the Round of 64.

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): none!
  • Contenders (25-50%): Vanderbilt, Alabama
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): Florida, Tennessee
  • Wildcards (5% or above): Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky

Vandy is your current league favorite thanks to running roughshod through the non-con, but some close losses have deflated the values of equally good teams like Florida. I think the Gators could be the secret best team in the league here, and the SA-SVI ratings I've unveiled in years prior based on removing 3PT% variance would have the league's 'true' rankings as follows:

  1. Florida
  2. Vanderbilt
  3. Tennessee
  4. Alabama
  5. Kentucky
  6. Georgia
  7. Arkansas
  8. Texas
  9. Auburn
  10. LSU
  11. Oklahoma
  12. Missouri
  13. Texas A&M
  14. South Carolina (!)
  15. Mississippi State
  16. Ole Miss

I can't claim to think that a Chris Beard team will actually finish dead last in the league, but the Gators are being undervalued nationally. For comparison's sake, the eventual SEC champion post-COVID has ranked 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, and 2nd in the SEC at KenPom on New Year's Day. (The last league champion to actually be #1 in the league on NYD: 2016-17 Kentucky.) If that trend holds, your eventual league champ is either Florida or Tennessee, which is honestly more realistic to me than assuming Vandy runs it the whole way out.

CHAMPION: A three-way tie at the top - and boy, will they have fun figuring that out! - between Alabama, Florida, and Tennessee, all 14-4. Why not.
CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT: It's kinda nice doing these knowing a specific result usually doesn't happen and probably will not happen, but the simulator says Tennessee over Alabama. I'm wagering this league gets eight teams in: no LSU, yes Auburn, no to the others.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Relative to the national consensus, Auburn seems to be losing steam, thanks to now being 8-4 with three blowout losses. Here is my proposal: what if they're still pretty good? Against a top-15 schedule, Auburn holds a combined REB/TO margin of +8.3 per 100 possessions, has outshot opponents by 4% from two, and does have a pair of outright stars in Keyshawn Hall and Tahaad Pettiford. I don't think they can come from 8th to win the league, but last year, Missouri went from 14th to 7th. Could Auburn halve their rank in a similar way and go 8th -> 4th?
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Alabama at Vanderbilt, January 7. This will be the first shot fired in the conference horse race amongst the four best teams.

Big Ten

NATIONAL

  • LOCKS (97% or higher to make the Tournament): Michigan, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Nebraska, Iowa
  • LIKELIES (70-97% to make it): Indiana, UCLA, USC
  • BUBBLES (30-70% to make it): Ohio State
  • UNLIKELIES (5-30% to make it): Wisconsin, Washington
  • MAYBE NEXT YEARS (<5% to make it): Northwestern, Oregon, Minnesota, Penn State, Maryland, Rutgers
  • Expected tournament teams: 9.7 (#1 nationally)

The Big Ten stands the best chance at being the SEC of 2025-26 to me, though I'm not sure anyone will get close to actually dumping 14 teams in the field. Six teams are locks. Indiana, UCLA, and USC are all pretty likely to get in. That would give you a baseline of nine teams before you get to 50/50 cases like Ohio State or 25/75 cases like Wisconsin and Washington. The B1G putting 12 teams into your eventual NCAA Tournament field isn't that crazy of a proposal.

It will also require a lot of luck and good outcomes to get there. The butt-end of this conference is still awful, with Rutgers currently favored in exactly one conference game and Penn State favored in two. The SEC last year had zero teams outside of the top 100 at KenPom, while the Big Ten may realistically have four depending on the fortunes of Maryland and Minnesota.

Still, I have a hard time thinking of this conference as anything beneath a nine-bid league, and getting to 11 is well within reach as long as one of Wisconsin/Washington/maybe Northwestern finds their way home. Coupled with the near-lock status for Michigan as a 1 seed and Purdue having a good shot at one as well, this is your most likely candidate to be the SEC of 2025-26.

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): Michigan
  • Contenders (25-50%): none
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois
  • Wildcards (5% or above): Nebraska, Iowa

Like most people, I think this is a Michigan/Purdue race by year's end, though unlike most I guess I'm not seeing Michigan as several leagues ahead of everyone else. I'm aware attention spans are very short these days, but we have to stop treating Michigan as this unbeatable machine. They're obviously awesome, obviously the best team in the sport, and barely six weeks ago they nearly lost to Wake Forest and TCU in the same week. They're not infallible.

Purdue and Michigan will both play fairly difficult league schedules, which could open the door to a surprise contender. My bet here would be Illinois if anyone, because the Illini only have to play Michigan at home and their Purdue road game is in the midst of a four-game stretch for the Boilermakers where they play USC, UCLA, and Indiana all on the road. They even get a six-day break after their Westward swing to USC and UCLA before they play that Michigan game, which crucially isn't Senior Night, an event that can cause players to play out over their skis.

A team with odds perhaps too high right now is Nebraska. I mentioned them recently as a Sell High team, but beyond that, they drew the short schedule straw. They get Purdue at home in mid-February, but have to play all of Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, USC, and UCLA away from home, with only Iowa making the return trip to Pinnacle Bank. That's a really rough draw, and even if they sustain their current level of play as a top-25 team, they'd still be underdogs in at least seven conference games.

CHAMPION: Michigan wins the league outright.
TOURNAMENT: I guess this qualifies as minor surprise? Purdue takes home the Big Ten Tournament title over Illinois. I'll say the Big Ten gets a big ten teams into the field, with Ohio State being the swing piece tenth. I'll also say the Big Ten gets its second Final Four team since 2019.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Iowa unfortunately cracks the wildcard tier, so...Wisconsin? Over the last four seasons, at least one team in the Big Ten south of 30th on NYD at KenPom ended up a 7 seed or better. There's technically 12 candidates, but Wisconsin offers a couple of enticing items to me: a huge advantage on the boards (+8 per 100) and a high-variance style with a billion three-point attempts, which means they could easily pull off a giant upset or two in league play. They could also lose at home to Minnesota.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Michigan at Purdue, February 17.

Big 12

NATIONAL

  • LOCKS (97% or higher to make the Tournament): Arizona, Iowa State, Houston, BYU, Kansas, Texas Tech
  • LIKELIES (70-97% to make it): none???
  • BUBBLES (30-70% to make it): Baylor, UCF, TCU
  • UNLIKELIES (5-30% to make it): Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State
  • MAYBE NEXT YEARS (<5% to make it): Colorado, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Utah
  • Expected tournament teams: 7.9 (#4 nationally)

The problem is that this league is exactly what I thought it was two months ago: six teams, then everyone else. Any and all of Arizona, Iowa State, Houston, BYU, Kansas, and Texas Tech can win this league, be a 1 or 2 seed (perhaps not TTU, but...maybe), and could be in your future Final Four. It would be a surprise if this league doesn't deposit a team in said Final Four, and honestly, if you said "pick a league to have a team in the title game" it would be the Big 12.

But you have more than six teams in the Big 12. You have 16 teams, and they should rename the league, which they will not do. The team with the best at-large case is Baylor, whose best win is over either Creighton or San Diego State and will play a current AP Top 25 team for the first time next Wednesday. There's also UCF, who has a 10-game win streak where one of the wins is over a top-75 group (Texas A&M). The rest is a total mess that I can't make heads or tails of.

The law of averages correctly suggests that the Big 12 will not have just a six-bid league for the first time since 2021-22, and to be true, an eight-bid Big 12 would tie the league record set in 2023-24. But considering the quality of the back ten of this league, that may not mean a ton.

Also: please delete your floor and start over. Awful.

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): none!
  • Contenders (25-50%): Houston, Arizona, Iowa State
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): Kansas, BYU
  • Wildcards (5% or above): Texas Tech

As mentioned above, I do think any of these six teams can win the league, even Texas Tech. They've got the worst odds, but they've also had so many injuries in the non-conference that I kind of only want to evaluate them on how they've played post-Purdue game, which is like a top-15 team with a borderline top-10 offense.

If that's their 'true' ranking, this is a league with six of the nation's 15 or 16 best teams. What that will mean is some absolutely incredible basketball from here to March. Yes, there are other teams that play in this league, but until any of them (maybe Baylor?) show something that resembles title contention, we're focusing on these six.

As such, here's a list of every time this year these six will play each other. You're welcome.

  • January 6: Texas Tech at Houston
  • January 13: Iowa State at Kansas
  • January 17: BYU at Texas Tech
  • January 24: Houston at Texas Tech
  • January 26: Arizona at BYU
  • January 31: BYU at Kansas
  • February 2: Kansas at Texas Tech
  • February 7: Houston at BYU
  • February 9: Arizona at Kansas
  • February 14: Kansas at Iowa State
  • February 14: Texas Tech at Arizona
  • February 16: Houston at Iowa State
  • February 18: BYU at Arizona
  • February 21: Arizona at Houston
  • February 21: Iowa State at BYU
  • February 23: Houston at Kansas
  • February 28: Kansas at Arizona
  • February 28: Texas Tech at Iowa State
  • March 2: Iowa State at Arizona

CHAMPION: Houston and Arizona share the title.
TOURNAMENT: This is a little too normal for my liking, but Arizona takes down Houston in an instant classic.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I mean, Baylor is clearly the seventh-best team in the league. But, for the sake of argument, we'll go deeper. I maintain my Buy Low stance on West Virginia is very defensible and will become more so during the conference slate.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Texas Tech at Houston, January 6. Another first shot fired game.

The Power Five's Less Powerful Two

ACC

NATIONAL

  • LOCKS (97% or higher to make the Tournament): Duke, Louisville, North Carolina, Virginia
  • LIKELIES (70-97% to make it): NC State, Clemson, Miami (FL), SMU
  • BUBBLES (30-70% to make it): California
  • UNLIKELIES (5-30% to make it): Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Stanford, Syracuse
  • MAYBE NEXT YEARS (<5% to make it): Notre Dame, Florida State, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Georgia Tech
  • Expected tournament teams: 8.1 (#3 nationally)

What a turnaround the ACC has had in just one year. Last season, they were the butt of every joke, were inarguably the worst Power Five league in the nation, and experienced a truly perfect March in which everyone but Duke who did manage to make the NCAA Tournament got yeeted out of it by Friday afternoon.

This year, the conference actually has good non-Duke teams and is actively favored - not just could do it, actively favored - to deposit no fewer than eight teams in your NCAA Tournament. That would be the league's most since 2018, which is not coincidentally the last year they were a top-three league in the nation.

There's not a tremendous explanation for this beyond the simple 'sucking less.' Miami, Virginia, and NCSU have new coaches, but SMU, Louisville, UNC, California, Virginia Tech, even Stanford are all improved from the 2024-25 versions of themselves. Georgia Tech and Boston College are still awful, sure, but having 15 of your...jeez, 18 teams in the top-100 is a good sign for what you can be going forward. Three ACC teams in the Sweet Sixteen? Totally possible.

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): Duke
  • Contenders (25-50%): Louisville
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): Virginia, North Carolina, NC State, Clemson
  • Wildcards (5% or above): Miami FL

I mean, could someone other than Duke or Louisville win the ACC? Absolutely. We've had this happen before where a fairly obvious favorite gets derailed by something or other, such as in 2013-14, when Virginia announced their New Era by rampaging through the ACC to a 1 seed.

It's just unlikely. The odds of a non-Duke or Louisville team even getting a share of the title are just 37%, which isn't nothing but also means you're betting on someone emerging from the mid-pack muck to seriously challenge either of these teams.

There's also the schedule factor, in that they are Duke and Louisville and you are not. For instance, UNC has to play Duke twice, but also must play Virginia, NC State, and SMU all on the road without a return trip. They get Louisville at home, which is nice, but their road schedule is the single hardest in the league as it stands. Meanwhile, Miami somehow doesn't play Duke at all (not sure how) and plays Louisville once at home. Maybe stop building mega-leagues?

CHAMPION: Another shared title! Duke and Louisville both take it at 15-3.
TOURNAMENT: The ACC Tournament usually provides some sort of strange outcome. Would Virginia winning this in the first year of Ryan Odom's tenure count as strange? I'm not sure, but it's at least a little unusual.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Man oh man, do I love this California team, which did lose to Louisville as I was writing this but has looked the part of a legitimate March threat so far. A neutral-site win over UCLA is going to age quite well as the season goes on, and for once, they really seem to own the game in more ways than "we shoot well."
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Duke at Louisville, January 6.

Big East

NATIONAL

  • LOCKS (97% or higher to make the Tournament): UConn, St. John's
  • LIKELIES (70-97% to make it): Villanova
  • BUBBLES (30-70% to make it): Butler, Seton Hall, Creighton
  • UNLIKELIES (5-30% to make it): none
  • MAYBE NEXT YEARS (<5% to make it): Providence, Georgetown, Xavier, DePaul, Marquette
  • Expected tournament teams: 4.5 (#5 nationally)

In terms of Wins Above Bubble accumulated by the average team, the Big East has now fallen to fifth nationally and is the only power conference with an average team WAB below zero. That's how it goes sometimes, and I would wager it probably leads to the conference losing a team or two from the field that it would otherwise have. Let this be a lesson: take non-conference play seriously, guys.

Anyway, I'm really fascinated to see who does actually make it. UConn and St. John's will both do so. Beyond that, Villanova has moved up to 93% at the time of writing and looks pretty likely to give Kevin Willard a Tournament bid (also, possibly home uniforms in the Round of 64) in his first try.

Beyond that, it's anyone's guess. All of Butler, Seton Hall, and Creighton are in bubble territory. On average, 1-2 of them get in, but it's not likely all three get in. Which one or two? I'd be lying if I really knew right now, because all three are wildly flawed in ways that could send their season spiraling. They also have some serious upside that could lead to a surprise 15-5 Big East record. I don't know. I wish I did, but I do not.

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): UConn
  • Contenders (25-50%): St. John's
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): none
  • Wildcards (5% or above): none

I'm afraid this race is over before it starts. It's between these two, with Torvik giving just an 8% shot of literally any other team even garnering a share of the regular season title. The more fun battle will be for a top-four seed, which Villanova has a clear lead on and which Butler/Creighton/Seton Hall are all roughly equal for at the moment.

The good part of the Big East round robin is figuring out which games will be the ones that provide some surprises. UConn will lose a couple of games, but which ones? The Butler game immediately after the St. John's road trip seems ripe for a surprise. There's always Seton Hall. Maybe Creighton on January 31?

the face you see when a random Wednesday game on Peacock goes poorly

CHAMPION: UConn by a couple games. Can they go 19-1 or even 20-0 somehow? 17-3 to me seems like the floor. I'll guess 18-2 to hit all four possibles here.
TOURNAMENT: One of our more interesting Big East Tournaments, thanks to St. John's winning the Tournament over UConn.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I don't count Villanova as a darkhorse anymore. Can I go with Creighton? Sounds odd, but perhaps they're starting to figure it out. I wrote this before they played Butler, so please ignore if they lost by 14.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: UConn at St. John's, February 6. Well, is UConn going to complete the sweep, since I don't think they would lose the home version of this game?

The Mid-Majors With Strong Shots at Multiple Bids

Mountain West

NATIONAL

  • LOCKS (97% or higher to make the Tournament): none
  • LIKELIES (70-97% to make it): Utah State, Boise State (!)
  • BUBBLES (30-70% to make it): none
  • UNLIKELIES (5-30% to make it): San Diego State, New Mexico, Nevada, Grand Canyon, Colorado State
  • MAYBE NEXT YEARS (<5% to make it): Wyoming, UNLV, Fresno State, San Jose State, Air Force
  • Expected tournament teams: 2.2 (#6 nationally)

Well, unfortunately, it's not your older brother's Mountain West. After four straight years of four or more bids, Torvik gives the league just a 34% chance to even get three and barely any chance at all of four or more. Outside of Utah State and maybe New Mexico, the league had a rough non-conference run. It's bad when Boise State is clearly your second-best at-large option, as Boise lost to D2 Hawaii Pacific to open the season and has three D1 losses.

Still, they can do it. At this time last year, the Mountain West had 2.3 projected Tournament bids, only two teams north of 30% to make the field (USU and San Diego State), and just a 4% chance of getting to four bids. You know what happened? They got the damn four bids. They always, always find a way. Or at least they have for several years in a row. I can't doubt them now.

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): Utah State
  • Contenders (25-50%): none
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): Boise State, San Diego State, Grand Canyon, Nevada
  • Wildcards (5% or above): New Mexico, Colorado State

I like the Mountain West because they understand that having seven different contenders at once is good for everyone involved. Outside of 2019-2020 San Diego State, none of the last nine champions have lost fewer than three games in conference play. Last year, five (!) different teams went 14-6 or better. Four of them made the NCAA Tournament. Strength in numbers.

They'll have to do that again this season, because if the Tournament began today the only guaranteed entry would be Utah State. San Diego State has struggled, Boise State has looked better but did lose to a D2 team, and the other contenders are either bad offensively (Grand Canyon, New Mexico) or defensively (Nevada, Colorado State).

My hope is that this produces the same flattening effect we typically see. I don't care if a team ends up going 17-3 as long as three others go 14-6 or 15-5. Build up wins, make these resumes look better than they are, and steal some Power Five bids.

CHAMPION: Utah State by a game over San Diego State.
TOURNAMENT: How many times in life will you see a team lose to a bad D2 team in their opener then make the Tournament? Boise State does it, winning this tournament by defeating Utah State in the title game. Unfortunately, this does mean it may only be a two-bid league for the first time since 2021...though San Diego State ends up building a pretty strong case by going 16-4 in conference play.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Wyoming. I like the way they play, and my options are slim.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Boise State at San Diego State, January 3. Is this a strange pick? Maybe. But there's a real chance this eventually decides second place in this league and therefore, the first main challenger if Utah State falters.

Atlantic 10

NATIONAL

  • LOCKS (97% or higher to make the Tournament): none
  • LIKELIES (70-97% to make it): Saint Louis
  • BUBBLES (30-70% to make it): VCU
  • UNLIKELIES (5-30% to make it): Dayton, George Washington, George Mason
  • MAYBE NEXT YEARS (<5% to make it): Everyone else
  • Expected tournament teams: 1.7 (#8 nationally)

In the offseason, I made my cause célèbre a three-bid Atlantic 10, which last happened in 2018. Why? Well, to my eyes, the league was up on the whole and seemed to have the potential to generate two teams that could secure at-large status on their own, with conference tournament roulette hopefully providing the third.

I think the multi-bid aspect should be coming, but I may eventually admit defeat on the third bid. Saint Louis looks primed to be in your eventual NCAA Tournament, and VCU will hopefully join them with a good run in A10 play. I can't count on that, though, and the most likely event is that Saint Louis builds an at-large resume while someone else sneaks in through the tournament.

The good news is that, if Saint Louis cooperates, we should have plenty of options. I think SLU probably needs to go 15-3 in conference play to feel some amount of safe, with VCU probably having to do the same to build a First Four-level resume. If both can do it, I might be back in business. If not...well, it was worth the dream.

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): Saint Louis
  • Contenders (25-50%): none
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): VCU, Dayton, George Washington
  • Wildcards (5% or above): George Mason

Fun fact: three straight seasons, the best team at KenPom on New Year's Day has not won this league. The last team to do it was 2021-22 Davidson, who pipped VCU by a game on the final day. Also, the winner has gone exactly 15-3 four straight seasons. No one ever gets too far ahead in this league, do they?

I'll note here that across different head coaches, VCU has gone 53-30 ATS in conference games over the last four years. George Washington and Fordham have also been quite good at overachieving. Don't count on Rhode Island, who seems to really love imploding the second the calendar touches January.

CHAMPION: Saint Louis is forced to share the title with Dayton, as both go 15-3. VCU gets to 14-4 and must win to get in.
TOURNAMENT: Multi-bid Atlantic 10, baby. George Washington wins the A10 Tournament after upsetting Saint Louis in the semifinal, which creates a very sweaty Selection Sunday for SLU. The runner-up is VCU, who has a mild at-large case of their own. We'll see how much the committee respects this league.
SUPER DARKHORSE: This league loves to generate a random contender out of thin air. How about St. Bonaventure? A top-25 offensive rebounding squad with good rim protection and a uniquely strong home environment could produce a surprise 12-6 run in conference play.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Saint Louis at VCU, January 7. If Saint Louis wins this game, they should be in your 2026 NCAA Tournament. Full stop.

West Coast Conference

NATIONAL

  • LOCKS (97% or higher to make the Tournament): Gonzaga
  • LIKELIES (70-97% to make it): Saint Mary's
  • BUBBLES (30-70% to make it): none
  • UNLIKELIES (5-30% to make it): Santa Clara
  • MAYBE NEXT YEARS (<5% to make it): Everyone else
  • Expected tournament teams: 2.1 (#7 nationally)

Some good, some bad as it pertains to this league. Gonzaga is all the way BACK in all caps with their best team since 2021-22, and Saint Mary's has already been inside the top-25 this year. Santa Clara is also up to 58th, which would be their highest finish at KenPom ever, while being a truly dominant team on the boards. Sometimes, for fun, they beat decent teams by 20+. It's good to see.

Now, the bad: San Francisco has kind of flopped, and they're the only other team in this league in the top-100. The depth this league had last year with five top-80 teams hasn't come back for 2025-26, and Torvik gives this league just 21% odds of a third bid. That's far from impossible, but hopes were a little higher a month ago.

The hinge case will be Santa Clara. SMC should run up a good record in conference play, and I'd think that anything 15-3 or better would get them past the First Four. My question would then be if Santa Clara can dig up enough wins to get there, too. I think at minimum, they need to get to 14-4 WCC to have any chance, and probably, it's gotta be 15-3. Do that and you got a shot. Don't, and this is probably a two-bid league again.

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): Gonzaga
  • Contenders (25-50%): Saint Mary's
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): none
  • Wildcards (5% or above): Santa Clara

The last non-Gonzaga/Saint Mary's champion was in 2000. I think you're okay to avoid learning about other teams. Santa Clara is pretty good, though.

CHAMPION: Gonzaga finally gets the regular season title back by one game over Saint Mary's, 17-1 to 16-2.
TOURNAMENT: Gonzaga over SMC. Whatever.
SUPER DARKHORSE: They don't exist in this league, but for what it's worth, San Francisco is the obvious fourth-best team and should get to 20 wins yet again.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Saint Mary's at Gonzaga, January 31 and Gonzaga at Saint Mary's, February 28. Obviously? Very obviously?

The Two Best One-Bid Leagues, We Think

Missouri Valley

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): none!
  • Contenders (25-50%): Illinois State, Northern Iowa, Belmont
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): Murray State
  • Wildcards (5% or above): Bradley

While I'm a little bummed that the status of the Missouri Valley has declined somewhat over the years, it remains a very fun league capable of producing Names You Should Know, and it has the single most identifiable conference tournament in the entire sport. Serious kudos to whatever businessperson and/or employee at the MVC who convinced CBS to give them that Sunday afternoon spot all those years ago. Brilliant move by you.

Removing all games against teams outside of the top-300 makes for a really interesting chart, because it shows you that all of Northern Iowa, Illinois State, and Belmont are legitimate top-75 teams in the nation. It would also tell you that Murray State is right on the cutline, that everyone in the entire league save for Evansville is a top-200 crew, and that this is quietly the best defensive league among the likely one-bids.

How believable that may be to you is your call, but I think this edition of the MVC is a little up from previous ones. If their current ranking of 9th holds, it's their best finish since 2017-18, when 11-seed Loyola Chicago made the Final Four. If they can somehow push up to 8th, it's their best since the days of Southern Illinois and Drake getting 4 and 5 seeds. It's a shame that the current state of college basketball probably guarantees this is a one-bid league, because there are at least a few teams I wouldn't mind seeing in my eventual field of 68.

CHAMPION: A surprise: your 2026 Missouri Valley co-champs are Northern Iowa...and Murray State.
TOURNAMENT: Hope you like defense. Northern Iowa gets it done over Belmont, and by doing so, bumps someone pretty good down to the 13 line. Good for upsets!
SUPER DARKHORSE: Fun-ish fact: when you remove games against teams outside of the top-300, Southern Illinois actually leaps Bradley in the standings by a hair. That could be meaningless, or the fact they've somehow shot 26% from deep in these games could be a sign of better play to come.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Murray State at Bradley and Belmont at Illinois State, March 1. These two games, on the season's final day for each, could determine who wins the conference and who has to play an extra game at Arch Madness.

American

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): none!
  • Contenders (25-50%): Memphis, USF, Tulsa
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): Wichita State, UAB
  • Wildcards (5% or above): FAU

While this league is slowly offering less and less upside beyond "we used to have Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn, and Houston!", it does have some wide-open conference races nearly every year, so maybe it's not all so bad. Still, from 2013-14 through 2022-23, this league had at least one top-25 team nationally every year. The last three years: 47th-place FAU, 54th-place Memphis, and as of now, 70th-place Memphis. Not every new conference is a mistake, but not every new conference is a winner, either.

Still, the underwhelming nature of the AAC does lend itself to chaos. Last year's second-place finisher (North Texas) was picked seventh in the media poll, while preseason #3 (USF) and #4 (Wichita) finished 10th and 8th. Current top option Memphis would be favored over current 6-seed FAU by about four points on a neutral floor. The only team with a good non-conference run, Tulsa, was picked to finish 8th. Preseason #3 Tulane is currently 10th-best. Only USF has a top-100 offense and defense, and only barely. I think this should be very nutty all the way through and will only occasionally make sense.

CHAMPION: Memphis takes the title over USF.
TOURNAMENT: Perfection: South Florida wins the conference tournament, stopping UAB's surprise run to the title game from the 6-seed.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Well, half the league has been listed already. I guess I like Temple a little more than the consensus? Very low turnover rate and an actual star in Derrian Ford.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: South Florida at Memphis, March 5. This is a very rare thing: a midweek conference game that could make the conference's final day kind of pointless.

The One-Bid Leagues I Can Picture Producing a Champion That Wins a Game or Two in March

Conference USA

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): Liberty
  • Contenders (25-50%): New Mexico State
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): Middle Tennessee, Western Kentucky
  • Wildcards (5% or above): Sam Houston State, Kennesaw State, FIU

This also kinda serves as the Conference Realignment Tier. All of these teams will probably be elsewhere in a decade, because we can't stop ruining things, so enjoy them while you have them.

CUSA isn't what it once was, but it's still got some juice to it. The league is just barely outside the KenPom top 10, which is a big story when the conference that effectively worked to replace it (the American) is only one spot ahead now. Since reorganizing around a collection of old ASUN and WAC schools, CUSA is now on pace to post its third top-12 finish in four years after doing that just once from 2013-14 to 2021-22.

As usual, you can look to the top of the standings and see Liberty in whatever conference they happen to be in at the time, but it's nice to see some stalwarts like MTSU and Western Kentucky in the mix, too. You know what you'll get from this league every year: good defense, half-court oriented basketball, and some interesting/unique home arenas.

CHAMPION: Liberty by a game or two.
TOURNAMENT: The ghosts of the Murphy Center deliver a real surprise. Middle Tennessee steals the CUSA Tournament away from New Mexico State.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Alright, back to the well once more with Louisiana Tech, who has only made me look and feel like a fool several times before. They have a top-100 defense, are great on the offensive boards, and probably won't shoot 26% from 3 all year long. Beyond Liberty, this is a flat league, so they could easily pull off a surprise second-place finish.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Liberty at Sam Houston State, January 10. Liberty has several contenders here, but this is their first road game against a team I feel could actually challenge them for the conference title. We'll see how it goes.

WAC

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): Utah Valley
  • Contenders (25-50%): Cal Baptist
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): none
  • Wildcards (5% or above): none

Your official award for the Weirdest League of the 2020s is the WAC, which has seven teams this year. As such, they have an 18-game schedule where everyone plays everyone three times, the first time in history I can remember such a thing. Even beyond that, the WAC has lost six teams since 2022-23, and its longest-tenured occupant is 2013's Utah Valley, the league favorite and a team leaving for the Big West in a few months. To solve this, I humbly request that the WAC bring back this logo.

Real hoops. Anyway, despite having just the seven teams, it has several good options for March. UVU is a top-100 team with a top-50 defense. Cal Baptist is one of the best rebounding mid-majors, and perhaps best rebounding teams period, you can find. Tarleton State and UT Arlington play ugly, chaotic, and effective styles of basketball. There will be tons and tons of turnovers, very few threes, and a lot of free throws. This league is rebranding to the United Athletic Conference next year. Go out with a bang, everyone.

CHAMPION: Utah Valley by two games over Cal Baptist. No shocker.
TOURNAMENT: WE HAVE A NEVER MADE THE TOURNAMENT TEAM!!! Utah Valley takes down Cal Baptist in the title game. I have no idea what the format of this tournament will be, but whatever.
SUPER DARKHORSE: No such thing as a darkhorse in a seven-team league. Anyway, UT Arlington has a top-80 defense and plays a profoundly ugly style of basketball that can and will be rewarded in this sport sometimes.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Utah Valley at Cal Baptist, January 24. I mean, this game determines if a conference race exists at all. If Cal Bap goes 0-2 to start the UVU round-robin it's over immediately. No pressure!

Ivy League

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): Yale
  • Contenders (25-50%): Columbia
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): none
  • Wildcards (5% or above): Cornell

I think you know what you're getting with Ivy Ball at this point: elite shooting, a dearth of great athleticism, super-efficient offenses, and a league that always seems to produce a frisky champion with good March results. It's kinda nuts to me that the Ivy has more Sweet Sixteen bids since 2010 (two) than the CUSA and CAA, two leagues with better SEO to the naked eye.

This is why we absolutely must ensure Yale runs wild through conference play. The Bulldogs have two losses to good teams - Alabama and...uh, Rhode Island - and if they go 14-0 in Ivy League play, they would have a Wins Above Bubble ranking roughly equivalent to a 9 seed in the average season. Even 13-1, depending on the loss, would be good enough for a 10 seed in WAB. Will the Ivy cooperate? History says no - last year's Yale was the first 13-1 or better side since 2016-17 - but maybe they can make history this time around. What I'm saying is that a two-bid Ivy is not the dumbest idea ever presented.

CHAMPION: Yale goes 13-1 in league play and wins it by three games. The lone loss is at Columbia on February 28. Does 25-3, 13-1 Ivy get you into at-large talks? I'm fearful it wouldn't but TBD.
TOURNAMENT: I rigged this one. Sue me. Yale defeats Cornell because I want good things. This is the only tournament here I excised editorial influence.
SUPER DARKHORSE: The only darkhorse here would have to be a candidate that sneaks into the Ivy's four-team tournament, of which Yale and Columbia (and probably Cornell) already feel like locks. Maybe Harvard will have something to say this year? I'm running thin on inspiration in this category.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Yale at Harvard, February 14. Minor zag here. This is the first Ivy back-to-back on Yale's schedule that's on the road, and in years past, these road back-to-backs after a win (they play Dartmouth the previous day) can be treacherous. Yale's actually been very good in these spots (11-7 ATS all time), but in a similar spot last year they lost as 10.5-point favorites at Harvard the day after a win.

Big West

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): UC San Diego
  • Contenders (25-50%): Hawaii, UC Irvine
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): none
  • Wildcards (5% or above): UC Santa Barbara

This league isn't much for pretty, but it's my kinda league. You know what you're going to get every year, the conference usually produces a champion that's likable, and the league itself has become a coaching incubator of sorts.

Anyway, the major issue is that the same teams are at the top again. All of UCI, UCSD, and UCSB will be major factors, while Hawaii has their best team in years and will cause serious problems for those who have to travel out there. I can't tell yet if I think this is a down year or a standard one for the Big West, but it's got more of a diversity of styles than it did in previous seasons and even the very best teams have critical flaws. Likable, fun league.

CHAMPION: A minor upset, based on current odds: UC Irvine steals the title by one game over UCSD, 17-3 to 16-4.
TOURNAMENT: Finally, a unique, non-California Big West champ. Hawaii takes down UCI in the title game to get their first bid since 2016.
SUPER DARKHORSE: It's very well set at the top here, but Andy Newman's CSUN does well on the boards and jumped over 50 spots in conference play last year. What's one more run at it?
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: UCSD at UC Irvine, February 21. This should have some extreme, outsized importance on the conference race. We should all be so lucky that it actually ends up this way!

MAC

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): Akron
  • Contenders (25-50%): Bowling Green
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): Miami (OH), Kent State
  • Wildcards (5% or above): none

Here's the good news: for the first time in years, the MAC actually seems to be collectively trending upwards. At 15th on KenPom, they've produced their best non-conference run since COVID hit, and the league's teams have pulled off some pretty impressive wins: Bowling Green's 82-66 defeat of Kansas State, Eastern Michigan's road stomping of Cincinnati, UMass winning at Florida State. These are all good things.

Now, the conference must work with itself to produce the first compelling season of conference play in a while. Three of the last four champions have won 16 or 17 league games, and the race is usually over by early February. For once, there look like four serious contenders for the regular season crown. Loyal college hoops fans will know that it is an awful idea to finish first in the MAC and you're better off avoiding the 1 seed altogether in their conference tournament randomizer, but you raise the banner either way.

CHAMPION: A rare share: Akron and Bowling Green split the regular season crown at 15-3.
TOURNAMENT: Yes! Chaos! 4-seed Kent State takes down 2-seed Bowling Green in the title game. Rob Senderoff, baby.
SUPER DARKHORSE: The clear fifth-best team in the league is newcomer UMass, who I don't see serious indications of actually being amongst the top four but at least would be there in the event of someone faltering. They have three wins away from home against top-200 teams, which does count for progress.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Akron at Miami (OH), January 3. This weekend! This is the first major game in what should be a four-team race to me, though I think the top two are a little ahead of the next two.

CAA

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): none!
  • Contenders (25-50%): William & Mary, Hofstra, UNC Wilmington
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): Elon
  • Wildcards (5% or above): Towson

This is a really exciting edition of the CAA simply because, at the top, we have several good options for storylines. William & Mary, with their zero career NCAA Tournament bids, is an obvious winner. Elon, who has never won a regular season conference championship, is another. Towson - they of no NCAA Tournament bids since 1991 - would be a great, heartwarming entry into the field of 68. Even Hofstra only has the one bid in 25 years.

This is a conference in a bit of a transitional period in terms of its powerhouses, with CAA faves of my lifetime Drexel and Northeastern (plus Charleston, maybe) on the way down while career also-rans like Elon and W&M are rising fast. Now, if we can get this league off of Flo Sports for good, we'll be in business.

CHAMPION: I hear you like surprises. William & Mary ties with Elon for the league title, Elon's first share of any regular season title in program history and W&M's first since 2015.
TOURNAMENT: ...man. Your champion is Hofstra, which is still cool, but in our simulation they defeat William & Mary in the title game to do it.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Well...should we really give up on Charleston yet? I would like to, but this is the team with the most presumed talent in the league, and at least by my ratings sans 3PT% variance, they've played like a top-four team in the league. I don't think they're done.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: UNC Wilmington at William & Mary, January 22 and Hofstra at William & Mary, January 24. This is a rare deal where the slight conference favorite manages to win round-robin roulette by getting Hofstra and UNCW at home only. I think W&M has to go 2-0 in these in the same weekend to get what they want.

Southland

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): McNeese State
  • Contenders (25-50%): none
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): Stephen F. Austin
  • Wildcards (5% or above): UTRGV

This is McNeese's league with very little else to play for. At least SFA is also inside the top-150...but, well, McNeese is top-70, and both their offense and defense are top-100 units. Is there anything else to note?

I think so. For one, the Southland is playing an odd 22-game round robin, where all 12 teams will play their 11 opponents in a true home-and-home. I like that for numerous reasons, but one is that it introduces some serious schedule quirks into the fray. McNeese has four home games in a row followed by five road games in six. SFA has two separate three-in-a-row road stretches. Half the league will have its Senior Night on February 23. If nothing else, it will produce some very odd results that we can all smile at.

CHAMPION: McNeese goes 19-3 in conference play, winning the league by two games. Not too bad, would put them at 26-5 and on track for a...12 seed? Possibly an 11?
TOURNAMENT: No shocker: McNeese wins the title game over Incarnate Word.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Keep an eye on Lamar, who is addicted to losing the foul battle but is among the best mid-majors in the nation at opponent shot volume suppression. They also are the rare Southland team with legitimate high-major rim protection thanks to Andrew Holifield.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: McNeese at Stephen F. Austin, February 2. This is a Monday night and a really weird schedule spot for McNeese: their third straight road game and their second in a 48-hour span. If they can get through this unscathed, their odds of a 20-2 or even 21-1 run in conference play rise dramatically...as well as their odds of at-large status of some sort.

The Precise Median of the Mid-Majors

Big Sky

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): none!
  • Contenders (25-50%): Northern Colorado, Idaho, Montana State
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): Portland State, Idaho State
  • Wildcards (5% or above): Montana, Weber State

No league is more perfectly mid-major to the core than the Big Sky, which is pure mid in all its forms. I mean this positively, because basically every single member of the conference has some form of a chance to win the regular season title. At Torvik, no one has a projected record better than 11-7 or worse than 6-12. The spread of rankings on KenPom only goes from 149th to 290th, with 2nd (169th) through 7th (215th) being separated by all of four points per 100 possessions.

It's worth noting that in non-COVID times, the conference has not had a regular season champion with more than four conference losses since 2013-14. Someone typically motors away thanks to serious close-game luck. Last year, it was Montana (7-1 in games decided by 6 or less), but in 2023-24 it was Eastern Washington (5-1) and in 2022-23 Montana State (6-2). Basically, everyone here is equal, but whoever manages to go >75% in coin-flip games is your champion. Good luck figuring that one out.

CHAMPION: A highly-appropriate outcome for a restrictor plate conference: Northern Colorado, Idaho, and Portland State put up a three-way tie for the title at 13-5.
TOURNAMENT: Well, this sounds about right: Portland State gets their first bid since 2009 by taking down 6-seed Weber State in the title game. Sure.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I will share that by SA-SVI, Eastern Washington moves from 8th to...well, a better 8th in this very flat league. They're not as far off as it looks right now, and I have to say that there's surely no way they can be as spectacularly awful on defense as they've looked. Rubber band effect, maybe?
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: All of them? None stand out as that significant at the moment. We'll say Northern Colorado at Idaho, February 28 could be a title-decider, but it could also be for fourth place in this wide-open league.

Horizon League

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): none!
  • Contenders (25-50%): Oakland, Youngstown State, Wright State
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): Robert Morris
  • Wildcards (5% or above): Milwaukee

True to form, at the time I'm writing this (December 30), the Horizon League already has ten of its 11 teams with a conference loss and the one that hasn't (Milwaukee) is 3-0. No one in this league can ever distance themselves for the rest, which makes for a very exciting conference title race but a pretty terrible handicapping experience as a writer.

Still, basically every game should have some amount of meaning. From 1st through 9th, the projected conference records only go from 14-6 to 8-12. It is a terrible, obnoxiously poor defensive league...and also a league stuffed with offenses that can pour it on these awful defenses. Even Doug Gottlieb has promised to actually care about Green Bay basketball this year in his second season as head coach. The Horizon League truly has it all.

CHAMPION: This year's simulator loves ties. Oakland and Youngstown State split the regular season title at 15-5.
TOURNAMENT: A relatively normal run of play for once: Youngstown State over Robert Morris in the title game. Not too bad!
SUPER DARKHORSE: I'm never, ever quitting Northern Kentucky, because every single year the Norse find themselves in Horizon League talks. Every year! I can't stop! I also still think IU Indy could finish ninth instead of 11th.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Oakland at Youngstown State, January 1. No game actually stands out much from the crowd, but this is a good first look to see if Oakland can take an early lead.

Sun Belt

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): Arkansas State, Troy
  • Contenders (25-50%): none
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): none
  • Wildcards (5% or above): Georgia Southern, Marshall, Southern Miss

Much like last year, this is a two-team race between Arkansas State and Troy, though with the real chance that the Sun Belt's wonky conference structure gives good odds of a surprise champion and the new Sun Belt conference tournament format making one of these two teams play an extra game.

Still, they're clearly the two best teams. They're the only two inside the top 150 at KenPom, and while this edition of the Sun Belt is the worst in a few years, it should still produce a champion that...I guess could be competitive as a 14 seed? It's not a very good offensive conference and its flagship teams are generally better on the defensive end. There's also not a single top-100 unit in the league right now. Not the best, not the worst.

CHAMPION: Finally, a standalone champ. Troy beats out Arkansas State, 15-3 to 14-4.
TOURNAMENT: The reverse of 2025 happens: Arkansas State wins the conference tournament mega-ladder over Troy and gets the school's first Tournament bid since 1999.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I normally don't take a ton from ShotQuality's data at this point in the year because it's still high-variance and, well, it's not the greatest site in the world. But they have Texas State as the best team not named already and I can see it: top-55 in OREB%, an unlucky 3PT% delta of -6.2%, top-70 in turnovers forced...there are items here that, with better shooting, could create a top-five Sun Belt team.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Troy at Arkansas State, January 7 and Arkansas State at Troy, January 17. I'm not sure why the Sun Belt schedule-makers blew these two games in the first month of conference play. Why not save Ark State's return trip to Troy for the end of February? Better yet, why not use that once-upon-a-time Conference USA model and save all your best games for the end of the year to better your WAB? Bizarre to me that they wouldn't deploy this on February 27, when Troy is hosting UL-Monroe and Ark State UL-Lafayette.

One-Bid Leagues I Frankly Expect More From

SoCon

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): none
  • Contenders (25-50%): Furman, ETSU, Mercer
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): none
  • Wildcards (5% or above): Wofford, Chattanooga

Not my favorite edition of the SoCon. They've suffered from some unlucky 3PT% stuff (-6.3% in top-250 games) but it's a little pointless when you don't force turnovers or get many offensive rebounds. The most impressive teams, at least by resume, are...Mercer? Furman? Two teams with at least four losses. It's not the SoCon of previous years for me.

Still, some positive stuff can be found here. It'll be a wide-open conference race with three co-favorites and an additional pair of teams with realistic dreams of winning it. People forget that even bad editions of good leagues are still good in some fashion.

CHAMPION: Another standalone here: ETSU wins the title by one game over Furman.
TOURNAMENT: Kind of a normal event, actually: Furman over ETSU. That's way too normal for this level of league, but either way, Furman back to the NCAAT.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Anyone not named VMI or the Citadel. Of those, I can't quit Samford, who has several pieces I like and hasn't been able to piece it together yet for whatever reason.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Furman at Mercer, February 11. Okay, maybe not most impactful, but the most fun, at least to my eyes.

Big South

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): High Point
  • Contenders (25-50%): Winthrop
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): none
  • Wildcards (5% or above): none

Unfortunately, not one of the better editions of Big South Basketball. High Point and Winthrop are the only teams within the top-200. Both have great offenses and bad defenses. The rest of the league, minus a truly horrid Gardner Webb team, is a morass of slop all fighting to finish somewhere between 6-10 and 10-6.

At least the pair of High Point/Winthrop battles will be a delight. In the Huss/Clayman era, HPU is a perfect 5-0 against the Eagles, but I'd wager this year's edition will be closer to 2024's than 2025's. That year, the two HPU wins were 83-81 (in regulation) and 100-96 (in overtime). I'd be quite happy with one or both.

CHAMPION: An all-time RNG stunner here: your champion is Winthrop, who presumably gets a ton of close-game luck or other stuff to finish ahead of High Point by a game. Implied number here would be Winthrop going 14-2 or something to HPU's 13-3?
TOURNAMENT: For the health of the field, a good thing does happen, as High Point defeats Winthrop by 10 in the title game to get a second consecutive bid.
SUPER DARKHORSE: The two best teams by SA-SVI are unsurprisingly your two teams mentioned, but third-best amongst six teams all basically tied is Longwood, a team I've admittedly thought little about but rates as the best defense in the league at shot suppression. Also easily your best Buy Low candidate in the league thanks to some inexplicable losses.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: High Point at Winthrop, January 14. This is a league light on options, and this is easily the best game of the season.

Summit League

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): St. Thomas
  • Contenders (25-50%): North Dakota State
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): South Dakota State
  • Wildcards (5% or above): none

I like that we have probably the two most watchable mid-major leagues back-to-back. I do not like that I can barely watch any Summit League games at all once conference play starts. That being said, I imagine it's pretty nice for people in the Dakotas to be able to watch St. Thomas play North Dakota on a cable channel. It's like CSS. Remember CSS?

I'm intrigued by the Summit this year as possibly being a little bit underrated. Not a ton! Just that they might be the 21st-best league instead of the 23rd. Three of this league's nine members are up 20 spots on KenPom from their starting point, with St. Thomas (the favorite) being up 17. Most shockingly, they are not as bad defensively as I'm used to, in the sense that the league's entrants actually force some turnovers now and appear somewhat more interested in rim protection. This could be highly useful for winning a game in March, you know!

CHAMPION: A fairly normal event: St. Thomas goes 13-3 to NDSU's 12-4.
TOURNAMENT: God, this league is so inevitable, every year. A Dakota stymies the Never Made the Tournament crew, this time South Dakota State taking down St. Thomas in the title game.
SUPER DARKHORSE: The top three here are indeed clear of the pack. Do you know who rates out fourth in SA-SVI, though? South Dakota, who gets more free throws, rim attacks, and offensive rebounds than anyone else in this league. They are atrocious defensively, but in a league low on rebounding and steals, their full-court press can serve as a useful curveball.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: St. Thomas at North Dakota State, January 17. Kinda feels like the league race ends here if STU wins it.

Low-Majors That Could Avoid the First Four

ASUN

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): Lipscomb
  • Contenders (25-50%): Austin Peay
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): FGCU, Queens
  • Wildcards (5% or above): Central Arkansas, North Alabama

This has become as exciting a nightly conference as you can find in the mid-major ranks. The ASUN has ruled the 3PT% roost for two straight seasons and has...kinda quietly gotten on the level of the Summit League? I bring that up because for many years, the Summit has been the preeminent Ball Knower League in terms of turning on any random game and being guaranteed to have fun.

In an attempt to go more local, which I guess I do appreciate, the Summit League is now on Midco Sports, which is a thing no one outside of the Dakotas has. A good number of people have ESPN+, which is where you can find pretty much every ASUN game. This is never a great league and really hasn't been great since Belmont's final years, but it's watchable, and you should always tip the cap to watchable.

Anyway! There isn't a top-100 team but all of Lipscomb, FGCU, and Peay are top-200, with Queens right on the cutline. You will see a lot of points if you watch these teams play. No one can defend, everyone can shoot, and it's always entertaining.

CHAMPION: Boring, but whatever: Lipscomb by a game over...FGCU, sure.
TOURNAMENT: Dunk City is back, as is Pat Chambers. FGCU takes down Queens in the title game after they upset Lipscomb in the semifinal.
SUPER DARKHORSE: The best ATS record over the last three years of Atlantic Sun play belongs to Eastern Kentucky, who is 33-23 ATS. Again, this is a Buy Low opportunity for a team down 129 spots from their starting point at Torvik. I'll bury them when they finally go below .500 in conference play.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Lipscomb at Queens, February 14. This isn't necessarily the biggest game but it's the most fun one, with a current projected scoreline of 85-84, Lipscomb. If it lives up to that it should be pretty awesome.

MAAC

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): Quinnipiac
  • Contenders (25-50%): Iona, Marist, Siena
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): none
  • Wildcards (5% or above): none

This is Sam Federman's league of choice, so I defer to him. Sam had Siena winning this league in the preseason, but I'll assume that Marist (sixth) and Iona (seventh) are both fair surprises. (Q-Pac was fourth.) Likewise, I would assume that Manhattan plummeting from preseason top-two team to, as of now, KenPom's projected ninth-place finisher in the league is a bit of a stunner.

Luckily, some things do remain the same. Amarri Monroe (Q-Pac) and Gavin Doty (Siena) are both awesome. This league routinely sits among the national leaders in percentage of close games (<4 points or OT, per KenPom), and last year's regular season champ was fifth in the league on KP on New Year's Day. As Sam says, nobody knows anything as it pertains to the MAAC. I will not pretend to say any different. However! If history repeats itself, enjoy regular season champion Merrimack.

CHAMPION: Well, how's this for perfect: a three-way tie between Quinnipiac, Iona, and Siena at 15-5. Nobody can ever win this conference in a normal fashion! Ever!
TOURNAMENT: And as expected, the conference tournament winner isn't among those three. It's Marist, who comes out as the 4-seed over 3-seed (by some unknown tiebreaker) Siena.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I'm not sure there's I really love on the availability list here, but it's legally required for me to tell you that Fairfield is an incredible rebounding squad with great offensive shot volume that would really be in business if they could ever figure out how to make a layup. 50.3% on layups in the year 2025 is ghastly stuff. But, hey, they start making those at 55% or something and things might work out.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Quinnipiac at Siena, February 13. Sort of a dartboard throw, but it seems like this one should be very meaningful to the cause.

Ohio Valley

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): none!
  • Contenders (25-50%): Lindenwood, SEMO, Tennessee Martin
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): Tennessee State
  • Wildcards (5% or above): SIU Edwardsville, Tennessee Tech, Morehead State

I say this every year, but what the OVC has become really makes me sad. From around 2000 through 2022, the OVC Tournament was a legitimate must-watch every year. It usually came down to Belmont or Murray State, but you would get a litany of entertaining teams who came down the pipeline. Who can forget 2010-11 Morehead State upsetting Louisville? 2013-14 Eastern Kentucky threatening 2-seed Kansas for 35 minutes?

The departures of some of this conference's strongest - Belmont, Murray, Austin Peay, Eastern Kentucky, even Jacksonville State - have destroyed it. The 26th-place finish they're tracking for is actually the best since Belmont/Murray/AP left, but it would've been the league's worst finish from 2008-2019. Kenneth Faried...Lester Hudson...Isaiah Canaan...Ian Clark...the names of my youth, all gone. Now, frittering.

CHAMPION: A...normal winner? On purpose? RNG spat out Lindenwood by a game over SEMO.
TOURNAMENT: No first-time bid to be found here. SEMO defeats 4-seed Tennessee State and heads to First Four territory once more.
SUPER DARKHORSE: I mean, every good team is listed already. Or are they? Little Rock came into this year as the assumed(ish) favorite and have imploded in non-conference play. With all priors removed, they've been the second-worst team in the entire league. They may be that bad...or alternately, a team that hasn't had its full roster available since November 10 could be bought at the lowest price imaginable right now.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Lindenwood at Tennessee State, February 19 and Lindenwood at Tennessee Tech, February 21. If Lindenwood wants their first conference title at the Division I level - actually, their first since 2011 when they were an NAIA school - they have to go at least 1-1 if not 2-0 in these games.

Patriot League

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): Colgate
  • Contenders (25-50%): Navy
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): American
  • Wildcards (5% or above): Bucknell

...eh? The Patriot League has been either Colgate or Bucknell's domain for over a decade, with American FINALLY interrupting the parade last year to get Duane Simpkins his first Tournament bid. The problem is it's not a terribly fun league to watch. Lots of plodding tempos, few great shooters, weak frontcourt play, no superpowered home environments. It's not as entertaining as it was when Lehigh and Bucknell ran the streets every year. Still, Colgate has a pleasant offense to watch and (unfortunately) an excellent point guard I can already see getting plucked in the portal in Jalen Cox. Against St. Bonaventure three weeks ago he was the best player on the court.

CHAMPION: Colgate by two games over American.
TOURNAMENT: How about this! American pulls off the upset of Colgate, giving Duane Simpkins back-to-back Tournament bids. I would nearly guarantee this leads to him getting a better mid-major job offer.
SUPER DARKHORSE: The second-best team in non-conference play has been Boston University, who plays extremely slow offensively, takes a lot of threes, rebounds well, and has been super unlucky on opponent threes. I'm intrigued enough to list them.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Colgate at American, January 21. This feels like the chance for someone not named Colgate to establish their candidacy for the Patriot League, and therefore, a future 15 or non-First Four 16 seed. Can American be that team?

Low-Majors Likely Headed for the First Four

SWAC

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): none!
  • Contenders (25-50%): Southern, Grambling State
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): Bethune Cookman, Alabama State
  • Wildcards (5% or above): Texas Southern, Alabama A&M, Prairie View A&M

Kinda pointless to care much about SWAC stuff in the regular season because the SWAC Tournament is pure roulette. Over the last nine years, the Tournament has been won by the 5, 1, 8, 2, 3, 1, 3, 1, and 4 seeds. I guess that means you shouldn't pick the six seed or the seven, but it's more a statement that even being the best team in this league only gives you a 1-in-3 shot of seeing the NCAA Tournament. So: do what you can, but save a little for the tournament. Southern, last year's best team, learned this the hard way by losing to 8-seed Grambling.

CHAMPION: You never know with this league, so it makes perfect sense the simulator spat out Bethune Cookman as the champion over Southern.
TOURNAMENT: It's the SWAC. Let's get SWACky. The randomizer's result is 7-seed Prairie View A&M over 5-seed Texas Southern, giving PVAMU their first Tournament bid since 2019. First Four and a chance at a conference unit awaits.
SUPER DARKHORSE: Literally anyone. But I'll note that the team not listed who has looked to offer something interesting is Arkansas Pine Bluff, who has actually played better than Texas Southern in the non-con. They also beat UIC on the road and nearly beat DePaul!
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Southern at Grambling State, January 17, for now. As with every season in the SWAC, the actual most impactful game is the conference championship game, with the regular season largely serving as spring training for Texas Southern.

America East

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): Vermont
  • Contenders (25-50%): none
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): UMBC
  • Wildcards (5% or above): Albany, UMass Lowell, New Hampshire

Here's your best team in this league, from 2026 back to 2017: Vermont, Bryant, Vermont, Vermont, Vermont, Vermont, Vermont, Vermont, Vermont, Vermont. That one Bryant run, which got Phil Martelli Jr. the VCU job, is the lone outlier in a decade of pure Catamount dominance. Nothing about this season suggests anything otherwise, where Vermont is 100+ spots ahead of UMBC at KenPom and has avoided some ugly mishaps that wrecked previous seasons. Gus Yalden at center is an outright star that could be a March fave if he ever finds some stamina.

CHAMPION: Not one of Vermont's better efforts, but a 14-2 run in conference play gets the job done by three games over 11-5 UMBC. No one else finishes above 9-7.
TOURNAMENT: Boring. Vermont over UMass Lowell for about the millionth time, making them the only team in this grouping that should avoid the First Four.
SUPER DARKHORSE: None, but Maine has been so stunningly bad this year that I flatly refuse to believe they are this bad. They should rebound somewhat to finish...5th?
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Vermont at UMBC, February 19. If you want Vermont to go 16-0, as I do, this is the swing game. Vermont has gotten into a bad habit in recent seasons of blowing some other game - we'll say at New Hampshire on January 3 - so this may be for 15-1 instead.

NEC

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): LIU
  • Contenders (25-50%): Wagner
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): Le Moyne, Central Connecticut
  • Wildcards (5% or above): Mercyhurst

This is now just a three-letter league, as they don't want to go by Northeast Conference anymore. I'm interested in this league a little more this year because not only is LIU on the up, Wagner - a team that I wasn't sure would play basketball this year - is the league's second-best team. Preseason fave CCSU might finish fourth. Le Moyne and Mercyhurst are rising. Traditional favorite Fairleigh Dickinson is headed downhill fast. This may produce a fun champion if anyone sees these games.

CHAMPION: A good-old two-way split, and a really surprising one: Wagner and Le Moyne shock the nation by...I guess each going 14-4? 13-5? Who knows. That's the result I was given by the randomizer gods.
TOURNAMENT: An actual, honest to God normal event in the NEC: LIU wins the conference tournament. I cannot believe what I'm typing out, but the favorite actually gets it done.
SUPER DARKHORSE: New Haven has had some serious misfortunes so far: 25% from deep, opponents shooting 35% and 75% from the FT line, and a near-upset of Boston College derailed by an awful BC shooting offense picking that day to go 10-25 from deep. I think they finish top half in this league.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: LIU at Le Moyne, January 19. Honestly, a pretty fun and entertaining game between two teams that want to play very fast and very fun styles of ball. I wish them the best of luck.

MEAC

REGIONAL

  • Favorites (50% or above): Norfolk State
  • Contenders (25-50%): Howard
  • Darkhorses (10% or above): none
  • Wildcards (5% or above): UMES, North Carolina Central

The two best teams in preseason are still the two best teams now, though as all things with MEAC expect the unexpected. Last year, Norfolk was outscored on the season by sixth-place NC Central but swept third-place Delaware State by a combined 21 points while going 2-1 against second-place South Carolina State. Worth noting, though, that this league is usually pretty stable in terms of its January favorites ending up as the top team or two in the league.

CHAMPION: One final tie: Howard and Norfolk State both go 11-3 to split the crown.
TOURNAMENT: Howard wins the MEAC Tournament and heads directly to the First Four.
SUPER DARKHORSE: The third-best unit after Howard and Norfolk State's defense is Delaware State's defense, which forces a lot of turnovers and suppresses opponent shot volume pretty well. Escaping the MEAC Muck to go 9-5 or something isn't out of the question.
MOST IMPACTFUL GAME: Howard at Norfolk State, March 5. You know what? Huge shoutout to the MEAC, who has managed to be one of about four conferences to correctly arrange their final day of the season to feature a game between their league's two best teams, likely to decide the regular season title and the 1 seed in the MEAC Tournament. A hat tip that shouldn't require a hat tip. How has every league not figured this out in 2026? Let's get it together.

So: how would this all shape up as an actual Tournament field? Using Torvik's TourneyCast tool and some educated guesses on regression/progression, I've created the following bracket. In order! Your Midwest Region, led by overall 1 seed Michigan:

Your West Region, led by Arizona:

Your East Region, led by UConn:

And your South Region, led by Purdue:

Will any of it actually turn out this way? Obviously not. (I would absolutely like to stake my claim on potential 6/11 battle Arkansas/USF. That is incredible. Also, potential Sweet Sixteen St. John's/Duke would rock.) But this is a primer, it's December 31, and if you made it this far, you probably like fake brackets more than you should. Welcome to the new year.