Three seasons ago, TCU was hitting a low it had not experienced since the turn of the century.
The Horned Frogs finished up an 8-23 season that included a single Big 12 victory and 17 double-digit defeats. It did manage to be better than TCU's 2021-22 campaign the year prior, where the Horned Frogs won just six games and ended the season on a 14-game losing streak.
The 14-45 record over those two seasons was the program's worst two-year run by a wide margin since 1994-96, when TCU went 3-52 and did not win a conference game in 28 attempts across both seasons. So, it could be worse, but 21-22 and 22-23 were the first two TCU teams with single-digit wins since those mid-90s units, and the program did not want to head back in that direction.
Fast forward to now, and TCU couldn't be further from reaching that fate. The Horned Frogs are fresh off their first ever Sweet 16 and Elite Eight appearances as a program.
Through 10 games this year, not much has changed on the surface: TCU is 10-0 and ranked No. 8 in the current AP Poll, seemingly right back in position to repeat on last year's success.
Except this isn't last year's team. It's barely even similar. The current Horned Frogs roster barely resembles the core of that 24-25 unit, and yet, here TCU is, doing the same thing anyway.
Mark Campbell took over as TCU head coach after the 2023 campaign following a successful two-year stint with Sacramento State that got the Hornets to their first-ever NCAA Tournament. The Horned Frogs won 21 games in Campbell's debut year, not enough to make the big dance, but enough to show dramatic improvement from the prior two seasons.
Seven players from that roster returned to TCU in 24-25, including many of the top weapons from the year prior in Madison Conner, Sedona Prince and Agnes Emma-Nnopu. But Campbell was aggressive in the portal between these seasons, securing big-name transfers like USC's Taylor Bigby and Oregon State's Donovyn Hunter.
The massive get of the six-player portal haul was, of course, Hailey Van Lith, the star guard who had a underwhelming stint at LSU, but showed superstar ability at Louisville. It was significant in not only boosting TCU's ceiling as a team, but also in getting more of the national attention on what the Horned Frogs were building.
With everything involved, last year's TCU team shouldered what were likely the highest expectations in program history. And oh yes, the Frogs delivered, with not only the best NCAA Tournament run they've ever accomplished, but also with by far the most wins in a season in program history: 34 victories, nine more than any TCU season before it.
So that's last season. It feels important to acknowledge the rise, because it made a potential fall feel very plausible with Van Lith, Conner, Emma-Nnopu and Prince — TCU's top four players in win shares — all exiting in the offseason. In total, Campbell returned just four members of his history-making roster: Bigby, Hunter, Natalie Mazurek and Maddie Scherr, all of which transferred in the prior offseason.
How did Campbell rebuild the rest of the rotation? What do they say about things that aren't broken?
Welcome in yet another six-player class, with yet another superstar guard highlighting the group. This time, it's Olivia Miles, who rounded back into form for Notre Dame last season after missing a year to injury. Now, she is leading the 10-0 Horned Frogs as the do-it-all guard she was in South Bend, ranking top two on TCU in points (17.7 PPG), rebounds (7.4 RPG), assists (7.4 APG) and steals (2.1 SPG).
Miles has been equally effective on the defensive end, leading the Horned Frogs in defensive win shares (1.1). That's significant considering that TCU is currently holding opponents to 48.5 PPG, 67.1 points per 100 possessions, a 29.4 FG% and a 33.1 EFG%, all of which lead the nation.
But this has not been simply the Olivia Miles show. Marta Suárez, another 2025 transfer from Cal, leads the Horned Frogs with 18.9 PPG and is doing it on 55.1/42.6/86.7 efficiency. Hunter has continued to impress with the Frogs, and is averaging 14.1 PPG, 2.8 APG and 2.0 SPG thus far. Scherr, who redshirted last year, and new add Clara Silva both came to TCU from Kentucky and have been key starting pieces: Silva leads the team in rebounds (7.5 RPG) and is second in blocks (1.8 BPG), whuile Scherr is the best three-point shooter (46.3%) and is the second in assists with 3.9 APG.
This Miles-Scherr-Hunter-Suárez-Silva starting lineup, playing in its first 10 games together, has been tremendous. It boasts a +59.1 net rating and has worked well specifically at moving the ball around with 23.2 assists per 40 minutes. There's also been strong reserve play from Bigby (7.6 PPG, 19 3PT made) and Arizona State transfer Kennedy Basham, who's averaging a ridiculous 4.9 RPG and 2.3 BPG in less than 15 minutes per contest.
TCU's 10 wins have largely come against lesser foes, but two of the double-digit wins still stand out. There's the 69-59 road win over NC State, where Suárez scored 26 points, Miles added 15-14-5 and the Wolfpack shot 33.3% from the field. There's also a 68-52 neutral-site win over Richmond, where Suárez scored 24 points, Miles added 19-8-6 and the Spiders shot 36.5% from the field. Not that these wins were similar or anything.
That's two victories over opponents that sit in the Top 50 of the NET. Conference play will bring more challenges, but the Horned Frogs appear to be right back where they were last season, despite never accomplishing a season anything like it prior, and despite a completely new-look roster.
The pillars of both rosters do remain the same: TCU is firing away from deep and doing it efficiently: The Horned Frogs were ninth and 35th nationally in 3PT% and three-point rate last season, and are currently 16th and 34th in those categories, respectively. They've remained a Top 20 rebounding unit and are scoring in bunches despite not prioritizing a quick pace, ranking in the bottom half in possessions per 40 minutes for the third straight year under Campbell.
If this year's TCU roster is going to improve on the record-breaking 24-25 campaign, its ridiculous start defensively could be the catalyst. Last year, the Horned Frogs were a good defensive team, but their biggest strength was the attack: They were third in both Bart Torvik and Her Hoop Stats' offensive efficiency rankings while the defense placed 26th and 14th. This year, HHS has both TCU's offense and defense as No. 7 nationally, while Torvik has the defense fifth and the offense 16th.
The transfer portal allows for more rapid program transformations, but TCU is really making something interesting around it. Two straight six-player classes and very little overlap from year-to-year has not stopped Campbell from getting the best out of each of these rosters, and the groundwork is in place for the Horned Frogs to be a weapon yet again in March.
How sustainable can this type of build be? Year three is not an ample amount of time to answer it. But TCU is back here, potentially doing it again despite never having been able to do it in the first place. They are a team worth watching out for, not just because of the star acquisitions, but because of how much it is working as a well-oiled machine without having built any natural cohesion over time.