Arizona was ranked No. 13 in the AP preseason poll and quickly rose into the top five after just one week. It's where the Wildcats stayed for the remainder of the season, holding either the top spot or the No. 2 ranking in 14 of the final 15 weeks of the regular season.
Their place among national championship contenders has held firm despite Duke and Michigan consuming most of that conversation throughout the same time frame.
However, Arizona is not the only team in that category in this region. Purdue and Gonzaga have looked like real Final Four threats all year long, too. Other high seeds like Arkansas and Wisconsin are surging at the right time and could complicate the picture. Even high-end mid-majors like Utah State and High Point are capable of doing damage in this region.
All that should make for a very fun and very intriguing set of games with enjoyable storylines.
Best first-round game: (7) Miami vs (10) Missouri
Of all the first-round games in the tournament — not just in this region — Miami vs. Missouri has a chance to be one of the most entertaining. Miami has shown high-level upside with wins over North Carolina, NC State, and Louisville, and Missouri owns victories over Florida, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee.
Both teams run their offense through dynamic forwards (Malik Reneau for Miami, Mark Mitchell for Missouri) and have point guards capable of being X-factors (Tre Donaldson for Miami, TO Barrett for Missouri). Both teams have size, excel around the basket, and struggle defending the three-point line.
All that means we have a strength-on-strength matchup in just about every facet of the game.
First-round upset pick: (13) Hawaii over (4) Arkansas
This is probably my most "out there" pick of the entire tournament, but there is logic behind it.
Yes, Arkansas is playing incredibly well right now and just won the SEC Tournament. Yes, the Razorbacks have a major talent advantage.
But Hawaii's unique no-help defensive scheme could really mess with what Arkansas does well. On the surface, it feels like a bad idea to not help onto Darius Acuff. Dig a little deeper, however, and everything Arkansas wants to do is dependent upon him — or whoever is driving to the basket — collapsing the defense.
Hawaii's defense is designed to never collapse, and it's why it allows among the fewest assists and fewest three-point attempts of anyone in the country. Both of those are indicators of success for Arkansas, too. The Razorbacks average 18.2 assists and shoot nearly 40 percent from three in wins compared to 12.9 assists and make just 33.5 percent of their long-range attempts in losses.
It also wouldn't be the first time this decade a fantastic Calipari offense was stagnated by a non-traditional mid-major defense.
Dark-horse candidate: (5) Wisconsin
Having to get past Arizona is going to be a tall task for anyone but, if there is a team that can get it done, it might be Wisconsin.
And the reason it might be Wisconsin is because it may have the better backcourt.
Nick Boyd and John Blackwell have been absolutely scorching of late. The duo combined for 69 points in the Badgers' win over Illinois in the Big Ten quarterfinals, which came days after they combined for 48 points in a win over Purdue at Mackey Arena. This is the same duo that combined for 48 points in a win at Michigan, 49 points in another win at Illinois earlier in the year, and 53 against Michigan State.
Those are all top-three seeds Wisconsin has beaten largely because of how well Boyd and Blackwell played in those games. It would be a surprise if they carried the Badgers all the way to the Final Four, but it wouldn't be a shock. Remember, Boyd was the starting point guard on the FAU team that made it to the final weekend in 2023.
Players to Watch
AJ Dybantsa, BYU
The projected No. 1 pick in June's NBA Draft is worth the price of admission. Dybantsa leads the nation in scoring (25.3 ppg) and everything BYU does offensively is centered around his versatile skillset.
It's why the 6-foot-9 guard also ranks No. 1 in KEMBA, a new metric designed to measure how much offense a player is responsible for generating. Any success that BYU has or doesn't have in the postseason will be directly correlated to Dybantsa's play — which has carried increased significance since Richie Saunders was lost for the season with a torn ACL.
Jaden Bradley, Arizona
As good as Dybantsa is and has been, he did not win Big 12 Player of the Year. That honor went to Bradley, who is the engine that drives the region's top seed on both ends of the court. The senior's raw numbers may not wow you, but he does everything at a high level — and does whatever it is Arizona needs in order for it to win.
He scored 25 points in a road victory over Baylor a few weeks ago. He had 10 assists against BYU a few games prior. Bradley has multiple games with three or more steals, and a handful of games in which his clutch shot-making has been the difference. He is, without a doubt, the game's best closer.
Darius Acuff, Arkansas
Acuff was simply phenomenal while leading Arkansas to the SEC Tournament title, averaging 30.3 points, 7.7 assists, and 4.3 rebounds while playing 39.0 minutes per game. He capped it with a thrilling 30-point, 11-assist showing in the championship game against Vanderbilt, but the SEC Player of the Year has played at this level all season long.
Acuff has an ability to get into the paint almost whenever he wants and has showcased an efficient three-point stroke, too (44.5 percent). Throw in a top-50 assist rate and it's easy to see why he has one of the highest usage rates in the country.
Key Storylines
Braden Smith's quest for the NCAA assist record
It feels like a foregone conclusion that Smith will become the NCAA's all-time assist leader early in Purdue's first-round matchup with Queens. He is only two assists shy of surpassing Bobby Hurley after dishing out 46 helpers in the Big Ten Tournament, including 11 in the title game against Michigan.
Battles between some of the nation's best guards
Not a surprise given this region has the soon-to-be Assist King and likely top overall draft pick, but every single matchup is going to have elite guard play. Between Arizona's backcourt with Bradley and Brayden Burries, Wisconsin's backcourt we mentioned earlier, and the individual stardom of Acuff, Dybantsa, and Smith, we should see some stellar individual performances.
Red-hot conference champions
There is no correlation between conference tournament success and NCAA Tournament success, but five of KenPom's top eight conference champions are in this region. Arizona won the Big 12 Tournament, Arkansas won the SEC, Purdue won the Big Ten, and Gonzaga won the WCC. 9-seed Utah State joins the club, too, after winning the Mountain West Tournament title.
Even without that correlation, it is worth noting that all five of these teams are playing at a really high level right now given who they had to beat to win those titles.
Prediction: (1) Arizona over (3) Gonzaga
Arizona has been the best and most consistent team in the country all season, and I don't expect that to stop now. The Wildcats have also been the most matchup-proof, winning games in many different ways while playing at vastly different tempos.
Gonzaga is going to be a sizable threat to them — never doubt a Mark Few team in March, especially one with a big man like Graham Ike and size on the wing — but Arizona is simply on a different level.
Expect the Wildcats to make their first Final Four under Tommy Lloyd, which would be the program's first since 2001.
