The South Region is perhaps the most intriguing group at the top, with No. 1 Florida, No. 2 Houston, and No. 3 Illinois all sitting with an adjusted net rating between 33.8 and 32.1. These three teams are exceptionally close together.
Plus the storylines of Nebraska searching for its first-ever March Madness win, and some fascinating schematic matchups in the middle of the bracket.
We'll go matchup by matchup and pick a winner in each one, eventually determining who will represent this region in Indianapolis. Because I like to embarass myself, I'll also attempt to guess the final score of these games. Let's dive in.
Tampa Pod
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 16 Prairie View A&M/Lehigh
Obviously Florida will win this matchup. The Gators won their sub-100 opponent games by 40, 35, 41, 30, and 22. We will probably see 7-foot-9 Olivier Rioux in this one.
Prairie View A&M against Lehigh should be fun. Prairie View had one of the wildest turnaround of any team in the country over the last 30 days. After losing to Southern on Feb. 14, the Panthers were 4-8 in league play. Then the SWAC's fourth-leading scorer Tai'Reon Joseph missed six straight games.
Replacing Joseph in the starting five was defensive-minded wing Joey Madimba, and at the same time, starting big Keeshawn Mason was swapped with former NAIA player Corey Dunning. That changed everything for Prairie View.
The Panthers finished the year 9-1 with a four-win SWAC Tournament run to boot. Dunning started every game at the five, and played at least 23 minutes in each after doing so in none of the team's contests prior to that. Even when Joseph returned, Dunning continued to play big minutes.
Perhaps my favorite stat of the entire region: since Dunning entered the starting five for good (11 games), he's taken 22 combined field goals and free throws, and picked up 39 combined steals and blocks. I have truly never heard of that. Prairie View has allowed 70 points or fewer in 9 of the 16 games Dunning has started, and in just two of the 15 he didn't. That is how you get on/offs that look like this.
That wild change in system is probably enough for Prairie View A&M to earn the right to lose to Florida. I really hope the guy with nearly double the stocks as field goal attempts gets his time to shine.
Final Score: Florida 92, Prairie View A&M 56
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Iowa
I continue to marvel at how unbelievable Clemson head coach Brad Brownell is at slowing down fast teams. In his 16 years at the helm of the Tigers, the team has never been higher than 212th in average defensive tempo allowed, have been 300th or lower in 12 of those years, and have been bottom-10 in back-to-back campaigns. Even just this year, Clemson forced Alabama into their fifth-slowest game of the year and BYU into their second-slowest.
But Iowa has absolutely no interest in running. The Hawkeyes are 357th in tempo and have not played a game faster than 70 possessions all season. Clemson is one of the best transition denial squads in the country, but Iowa pushes out only six transition possessions per game.
What Clemson's defense does not do well is defend the pick-and-roll. The Tigers are only in the 20th% in defending pick-and-roll ball handler attempts, which is where Iowa superstar Bennett Stirtz thrives. Iowa is fifth in efficiency on those attempts amongst power-five opponents.
If this is what Cayden Boozer can do... imagine what Bennett Stirtz can do.
On the other end, Clemson's offense is not very good. Finishing sandwiched between Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, and Notre Dame is probably not where you want your offensive efficiency to lie as a No. 8 seed. Clemson has not scored more than 1.15 points per possession against a Top 50 defense this season, and Iowa sits at No. 30.
Both teams are stumbling into the Big Dance, going a combined 7-13 in their last 10 games each.
Inevitably, Iowa has the best player in this game with Stirtz, probably the better coach with McCollum, and their style is pretty much the opposite of what Clemson wants to see in how their elite defense attacks opposing offenses. Give me Iowa here.
Final Score: Iowa 70, Clemson 64
Oklahoma City Pod
No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 McNeese
McNeese is both No. 1 nationally in turnover rate defense and steal rate. Their exceptionally disruptive defense is No. 4 in block rate too. The Cowboys are flying around on defense at all times, and on occasion, it almost looks like they are more interested in getting a steal or a block than actually forcing a miss or getting a rebound. It's truly fascinating.
Luckily for McNeese, it plays in the Southland, which is fourth-last among all leagues in offensive turnover rate. Look at what happens when the Cowboys play New Orleans, the worst turnover rate team in the league.
McNeese had four players above halfcourt in their pressure, which eventually led to New Orleans having three players ahead of the entire defense, and yet the Cowboys still forced a turnover. Now let's see what happens when McNeese runs something similar against its one power conference opponent in Michigan.
McNeese only played seven games against teams in the Top 200 in offensive turnover rate. It went 4-3 in those games, and 22-2 in every other contest.
Not only is Vanderbilt a power conference team, but the Commodores are 11th-nationally in offensive turnover rate, 87th% in transition efficiency, and the No. 9 most-efficient press offense in the country. They are perfectly equipped for everything McNeese wants to do.
On the other end, McNeese's best offense is its defense. The Cowboys are No. 1 nationally in points off turnovers per game at 21.3 a night. Most of their lowest offensive efficiency games are also their games with lower steal rates. McNeese is a 96th% transition offense and a 44th% halfcourt offense, and Vanderbilt will not cough it up enough to give the Cowboys a chance to run.
People will choose McNeese to win this game because a 12-seed "has" to win and this program did it last year. I will not be one of those people.
Final Score: Vanderbilt 90, McNeese 69
No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 13 Troy
In an era where the mid-range has become obsolete, Troy stands above nearly everyone in its quest to create an offensive analytical profile. The Trojans rank 7th nationally in rim-and-3 rate per ShotQuality, meaning that 93% of their attempts are at the hoop or from beyond the arc. The team was 5th last year and 14th the year prior.
The only issue is Troy isn't actually all that good at either factor. The team is 202nd in rim efficiency and 219th in 3-point percentage. Take away brothers Cooper and Cobi Campbell, and Troy is 151/517 (29.2%) from deep.
This is exceptionally notable when it comes to a game against Nebraska, who is No. 2 in the entire country in rim denial defense. Teams only take 29% of their shots from the hoop against the Cornhuskers, and that number is even lower outside of Big Ten play. Considering Troy won't get to the rim much at all, and it has taken 918 threes compared to 72 2-point jumpers on the year, it's safe to assume that up to 70% of its attempts will be from the land beyond.
Luckily, we don't even have to assume much here. While Nebraska is second in rim denial, South Alabama is No. 1 with its ultra-funky zone defense. In two games against South Alabama, Troy took 84 threes and 30 twos. That's a 73.6% 3-point rate, which extrapolated to an entire season would be the highest in the country by 20%.
Troy scored just 113 points in 118 possessions against South Alabama, largely because it went just 23/84 (27.3%) from deep. It turns this game against Nebraska into a bonafide 3-point contest. If Troy makes 40% of its threes, then sure, it has a real chance, but given it has done that just six times all year and Nebraska is 7th nationally in 3-point defense, it feels exceptionally unlikely.
On the other end, Troy's forward size could be a real challenge for Nebraska's inverted offense on switches, especially if the Trojans can get starting big Theo Seng back. But even when Nebraska's offense has had stinkers, like against Maryland Eastern Shore, USC Upstate, or Creighton, the defense has found a way to lead the Cornhuskers to victory, and this is a particularly good matchup.
Final Score: Nebraska 71, Troy 54
No. 7 Saint Mary's vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
The NCAA Tournament selection committee saw Saint Mary's turn a game against a speedy turnover-forcing SEC team into an absolute meat grinder in last year's Round of 64, and decided to give the Gaels the exact same challenge by handing them Texas A&M this year.
Prior to the matchup against Saint Mary's last year, Vanderbilt had never played a game below 64 possessions all season, but were forced to just 59 against the Gaels. Texas A&M has only played two games below 65 possessions all year, so now we'll get to see just how magically Saint Mary's head coach Randy Bennett is in slowing down speedy SEC opponents.
Interestingly, Saint Mary's got a rematch with Vanderbilt this season, and was nowhere near as good at slowing down Mark Byington's group. After 59 possessions in last year's NCAA Tournament, Vanderbilt forced a 72-possession affair in November. There were 13 total turnovers and 21 total free throws last year, compared to 23 total turnovers and 42 total free throws this year. My guess is that had a lot to do with Bennett preparing his team on one day's rest versus five days.
But it also highlights how Saint Mary's does not have the point guard play it has had in previous years. The Gaels are 162nd in offensive turnover rate this year, which is the worst ranking the program has had since way back in 2005-06.
That is music to the ears of Texas A&M and Bucky Ball. The Aggies are 16-2 when forcing a turnover rate above 16%, and just 5-9 when they don't force that number. Saint Mary's sits right at 16.5% on the season offensively.
Surely, the Gaels will crash the offensive glass and play massive lineups, but Texas A&M just made it through the SEC campaign with some ultra physical squads killing them on the boards, and still went 11-7 in league play.
It's possible that Bennett's multi-day prep slows down Bucky Ball to ways we haven't seen all year, but I think the more likely outcome is that the Gaels cough it up too much to be able to execute that strategy.
Final Score: Texas A&M 76, Saint Mary's 71
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Idaho
Let's get this out of the way off the bat. Yes, Idaho is the No. 5 defensive rebounding team in the country. Which in theory is an excellent thing against the aggressive offensive rebounding unit of Houston.
However, the Big Sky had the third-lowest offensive rebounding rate as a conference, and the Vandals only played one team ranked higher than 96th in offensive rebounding rate all season. They lost the glass 36-24 in a 94-68 defeat at the hands of Sam Houston State. Something about those "Houston" schools!
It's Kelvin Sampson in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Houston will roll here, and the only question is how few points will Idaho score?
Final Score: Houston 82, Idaho 58
Greenville Pod
No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 VCU
VCU is perhaps the most steady team in the entire country. The Rams are good at practically everything and great and nearly nothing. They are 1-6 against Top 50 KenPom teams and 26-1 against everyone else. They run a deep eight-to-ten man rotation but their leading scorer comes off the bench.
On the other hand, you have a North Carolina team who will be without clear best player Caleb Wilson, and are just 5-3 without him. Only two of those wins have come against teams ranked higher than VCU.
By far the most notable matchup intricacy here is the polar opposite ways these teams play drop coverage. Neither team traps ball screens and both squads limit catch-and-shoot attempts like a typical drop defense, but they choose to do completely different things with their big men. VCU wants to funnel players into their solid rim protection and allows the 13th-highest rim rate in the country. North Carolina wants to keep you away from the hoop at all costs and allows the 10th-most mid-range floaters in the country. Take a look at how this plays out in real time.
VCU's Lazar Djokovic waits for the ball handler to get past his defender before swatting the layup attempt, while North Carolina's Henri Veesaar does everything possible to keep the ball handler in front.
The thing is, this is bad news for both offenses.
North Carolina's guards never get to the hoop. Veesaar and Wilson have combined for 238 of the team's 460 rim field goals this year, or over half. Seth Trimble has 72 more. The other guards that get minutes (Derek Dixon, Luka Bogavac, Kyan Evans, Jaydon Young, and Jonathan Powell) have a combined 75 makes at the rim. If it isn't a Veesaar post-up or a Trimble drive, it's unlikely UNC will be able to capitalize against VCU offensively.
On the other end, VCU is 13th nationally in average 2-point distance, meaning when they aren't taking a 3-pointer, they'll do everything possible to get to the hoop. Sure enough, the Rams are just 273rd in floater efficiency.
The biggest factor in this game will be the free throw line, because VCU will throw themselves into defenders at the hoop in hopes of getting fouls, and the rim-denial drop of the Tar Heels is No. 3 in defense free throw rate allowed. If the refs are making calls on VCU drives, not only will they have a pathway to points, but it will knock Veesaar out of the game, which is an absolute disaster for the already shorthanded Heels.
All said, I think that this is one of the biggest coin flips of the entire Round of 64. If I absolutely had to pick right now, I would say North Carolina wins, and I already hate it.
Final Score: North Carolina 73, VCU 72
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 14 Penn
The good news for Penn: the team shot 23-for-50 (46%) from deep against the two Top 100 power conference teams it played this season.
The bad news for Penn: the team still lost by 25 and 27 points because it got outscored 70-29 at the rim. 70-29!
Illinois is 17th in offensive rim efficiency and 39th in defensive rim points allowed per game. Penn could shoot 60% from deep and still lose by 20+.
The Fighting Illini are one of the best mid-major slayers in the nation because they don't turn it over, control the glass, and use their nation-leading height to control the paint on both ends. It almost doesn't matter if they hit their threes or not, it just determines how much they win by. They played six mid-major teams this season. When they shot at least 30% from deep, they won by 58, 43, 35, and 40. When they shot below 30%, they won by 19 and 14.
TJ Power, Fran McCaffery, and the Quakers are an awesome story. But don't get it twisted, this game will not be close at all.
Final Score: Illinois 97, Penn 68
Round of 32, Sweet 16, Elite Eight Predictions
Round of 32
No. 1 Florida over No. 9 Iowa
No. 5 Vanderbilt over No. 4 Nebraska
No. 3 Illinois over No. 5 North Carolina
No. 2 Houston over No. 10 Texas A&M
Sweet 16
No. 1 Florida over No. 5 Vanderbilt
No. 3 Illinois over No. 2 Houston
Elite Eight
No. 3 Illinois over No. 1 Florida
Region Winner: Illinois
I won't go too deep on a hypothetical winner, but I just think this Illinois is truly one of the five most likely national champion threats.
Six of the Fighting Illini's eight losses have been by four points or fewer, and four of them have been in overtime. They ran into a Michigan buzzsaw and had a season-worst 3-point performance against UConn in the other two.
Illinois has the size to contend with Florida, the shot profile to handle Houston's defensive scheme, and the shot volume/math to avoid running into any surprising upsets along the way. They have an elite backcourt in Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell and a frontcourt with a plethora of oversized and unique options.
All in all, I don't expect too many upsets in this region. But that's why they play the games!