Quick Recap
Michigan State got the biggest win of the week, knocking off Illinois at home in overtime. However, the Spartans lost on the road at Minnesota earlier in the week.
Michigan returned to dominant form, beating Penn State by 41 and getting a 21 point road win over Ohio State. They now sit at 22-1 overall and 12-1 in Big Ten play.
Iowa had a sneaky big week, going 2-0 and extending their win steak to 6. Iowa still lacks a win against a top tier team, but they've been able to take care of the middle of the Big Ten which has allowed them to get out to a 18-5 record.
Maryland picked up their 2nd Big Ten win of the season, knocking off Minnesota on the road.
With Nate Bittle back, Oregon was able to give Purdue a game, although the Boilermakers were able to get the victory in the end.
After splitting their west coast trip, Indiana was able to get an overtime win over Wisconsin, although there was a pretty controversial call on John Blackwell that gave Indiana game winning free throws.
Nick Martinelli scored the fewest points he's scored in a game since December 13th, 2023 as Martinelli put up only 4 points in a 40 point loss to Illinois. He did bounce back with 21 points in a loss to Iowa.
Rutgers had another tough week as they lost to UCLA and Nebraska. They currently are on a 7 game losing streak, although they do now get into a much much easier part of their schedule.
Washington needed to get at least 1 win last week (probably 2) to start giving themselves a chance to go dancing. They went 0-2 and now sit at 12-12 overall and 4-9 in Big Ten play. It is worth noting that 5 of their last 7 opponents fall within the bottom 6 of the Big Ten currently, and their 2 other opponents are home games against Wisconsin and USC.
Score recap (Away Team - Home Team)
Rutgers 66 - UCLA 98
Indiana 75 - USC 81
Michigan State 73 - Minnesota 76
Northwestern 44 - Illinois 84
Iowa 84 - Washington 74
Penn State 69 - Michigan 110
Ohio State 82 - Maryland 62
Nebraska 80 - Rutgers 68
Wisconsin 77 - Indiana 78 (OT)
Oregon 64 - Purdue 68
Illinois 82 - Michigan State 85 (OT)
Washington 73 - UCLA 77
USC 77 - Penn State 75
Michigan 82 - Ohio State 61
Maryland 67 - Minnesota 62
Northwestern 70 - Iowa 76
Oregon 74 - Indiana 92
5 Trends and Observations
1.) Michigan State beats Illinois
In what was the game of the week, and one of the best Big Ten games all season, Michigan State was able to knock off Illinois at home in overtime. Jeremy Fears once again took over, scoring 26 points and adding in 15 assists.
In a battle between two of the best rebounding teams in the country, Michigan State ended up getting 10 more rebounds than Illinois on the game. This game wasn't a super efficient game in terms of field goal percentage, but both teams got to the line a ton. Illinois had an off shooting night from three, but Michigan State also made it very difficult for Illinois to get anything going on the interior.
Keaton Wagler was 2/16 from the field. Jordan Scott had the assignment while he was in, and he did a great job of just making it difficult. The Michigan State heavy gap-help defense gave Illinois little room to be able to create their advantages on offense, meaning that Illinois wasn't able to create drives or kickout looks.
Michigan State struggled a decent bit in the half court offense, but they were able to get 22 fast break points in the game, accounting for 26% of their points. Illinois had 0. That's how MSU has to play, and even though Fears is incredible enough to pull a rabbit out of a hat and make this Michigan State offense look competent, it's tough to do for 40 minutes. In these types of matchups, Michigan State has to defend, rebound, and get out and run. The Spartans had 12 second chance points in this one as well.
2.) Iowa wins the games they're supposed to
Iowa currently is 18-5 overall, and 8-4 in Big Ten play. They are ranked #18 in Kenpom. They are currently 0-4 against teams ranked better than them in Kenpom. They are currently 18-1 against teams ranked worse than them in Kenpom (their only loss was a road loss to Minnesota).
This is where Iowa sits. They have the talent to compete, as 3 of their 4 losses against top teams came by 7 points or less. They're also efficient in their system to be able to consistently take care of the lesser opponents. That puts them in a spot where they're analytical darlings, but maybe don't quite have the win quality to back it up.
Looking to their schedule ahead, Iowa is going to have a few chances to get some higher quality wins. Their schedule is below
- @ Maryland
- Purdue
- Nebraska
- @ Wisconsin
- Ohio State
- @ Penn State
- Michigan
- @ Nebraska
That's 4 games against top 15 Kenpom teams, and also a pair of games against bubble type teams in Wisconsin and Ohio State.
Bennett Stirtz gives the Hawkeyes the top end talent to be able to takeover games, and although the rotation isn't quite what many (including myself) expected, the Hawkeyes have some depth and continuity to make things interesting. The offense has fallen off a bit relatively during Big Ten play, but it hasn't been terrible. The defense has carried them a bit more, forcing a lot of turnovers and making it difficult for teams to consistently get looks in the paint.
3.) USC loves playing close games
Despite all the injuries that USC has faced, they currently sit at 18-6 overall and 7-6 in Big Ten play. They lack real high end wins, outside of arguably a win at Wisconsin and their home win against Indiana this week. This makes them have much less margin of error for their tourney hopes, but they still have a solid chance.
USC is still in it because they've been able to figure out how to win close games. Their last 6 wins have been by 2, 6, 3, 2, 17, 1 (OT). In that span, they've lost by 1, 6, and 5. (And their loss by 1 was because they committed a bad foul with 2 seconds left).
Essentially for the last month, USC has been playing in 1 or 2 possession games. The Trojans are more built on their defense right now, and it's been enough to get some wins. USC is far from playing elite basketball right now, but grinding out wins can be just as important.
The offense has been very inefficient in Big Ten play, although the numbers are a bit skewed by them losing by a combined 59 points against Michigan and MSU to start January. This inefficiency was to be somewhat expected though when they lost Rodney Rice. Alijah Arenas has gone for 29 and 24 points in his last two games, including the game winner against Penn State. We'll talk about the Big Ten bracketology outlook in a second, but USC is going to be in a very interesting spot.
4.) Big Ten Championship (and tournament bracket) Check In
With all 18 teams making the Big Ten tournament, we don't have any excitement of what teams will be left at home. However, there are now 3 different sets of byes that are obtainable for teams. With the Big Ten Tournament format having changed, let's take a look at what it will look like this season.
The top 4 seeds will be put into the quarterfinals, skipping the first three rounds.
Seeds 5-8 get a double bye, seeds 9-14 get a single bye, and teams 15-18 have to play in the opening round, in what will definitely be two of the basketball games of the season.
Below is what I'd loosely group the teams as, and what byes they can get. In parenthesis is their current Big Ten record.
Top 4 Seeds (and Big Ten Regular Season Champ)
- Michigan (12-1)
- Illinois (11-2)
- Nebraska (10-2)
- Michigan State (10-3)
- Purdue (9-3)
One of these teams won't get a top 4 seed and will have to start a round earlier. As of now, that seems like it'll most likely be Purdue or Michigan State, but as we've stated before, there are a ton of matchups between these 5 teams down the stretch, and standings can move quickly.
Michigan currently now sits alone at the top of the Big Ten. They still have road games against Purdue, Illinois, Iowa, and Northwestern, and home games against Michigan State, UCLA, and Minnesota. Not the easiest schedule left.
Seeds 5-8 (Double Bye)
- UCLA (9-4)
- Iowa (8-4)
- Wisconsin (8-4)
When accounting for one of the teams above will fall into this category, there's a pretty clear gap for teams 6-8. The next closest record in the Big Ten is 7-6, and although that doesn't mean they couldn't jump up to this double bye, seeds 6-8 seems to be UCLA, Iowa, and Wisconsin's to lose.
Seeds 9-14 (Single Bye) - Part 1
- Indiana (8-6)
- Ohio State (7-6)
- USC (7-6)
These teams have no chance of falling below the 14 seed line, and it's very likely that these are seeds 9, 10, and 11. These three teams have the opportunity to try and get a double bye, but it's very unlikely they would drop and have to play in the very first round.
Seeds 9-14 (Single Bye) - Part 2
- Washington (4-9)
- Minnesota (4-9)
Washington and Minnesota seem pretty locked in to the 12 and 13 seeds. They're both 3 games behind #11 in the Big Ten, but they're also both 2 games ahead of #14 in the Big Ten. They're probably going to get 2 of the last 3 single byes.
Seeds 15-18 (No Bye)
- Maryland (2-10)
- Northwestern (2-11)
- Rutgers (2-11)
- Oregon (1-11)
- Penn State (1-12)
One of these teams will be able to jump up and get the single bye by default. Your guess is as good as mine for who that actually is. 4 of these 5 teams will be playing opening day of the Big Ten Tournament.
5.) Big Ten Bracketology
We are now less than 5 weeks away from Selection Sunday. The Big Ten is in an interesting spot, where there's a real chance that they have 5 of the top 10 teams, but then there's a drop off from there.
I will be referencing bracketmatrix in terms of seeding projections.
I will also be referencing WAB from Torvik, a great metric to see how teams have done for their resume (much better than the quad ranking system). For reference, all top 40 teams in WAB last season made the tournament.
Tier 1 - Locks to make the tourney
- Michigan (1 seed - #1 WAB)
- Nebraska (2 seed - #5 WAB)
- Illinois (2 seed - #7 WAB)
- Purdue (3 seed - #9 WAB)
- Michigan State (3 seed - #10 WAB)
As should be no surprise if you read the 4th point, these top 5 teams are locks for the tournament, and the only question now is which seeds and paths everyone gets.
Tier 2 - Competent team who has room to breathe
- Iowa (7 seed - #25 WAB)
Iowa is the only team that falls in this list currently. They're a bit of the analytical darling who got boosts from dominating the teams they're supposed to. A signature win would nearly lock Iowa in, but the Hawkeyes do seem to be headed to dancing in year 1 under Ben McCollum.
Tier 3 - Probably on the right side of the bubble for now but not certain?
- Wisconsin (9 seed - #40 WAB)
- USC (10 seed - #31 WAB)
- UCLA (10 seed - #41 WAB)
- Indiana (10 seed - #42 WAB)
If the season were to end today, all of these teams probably make the tournament? Wisconsin and UCLA to me feel like the most likely to get in, but if USC and Indiana keep figuring out how to get wins, they'll have enough to potentially do it as well.
Tier 4 - 100% Bubble
- Ohio State (11 seed - #48 WAB)
Ohio State currently is the very last seed in the tournament per bracketmatrix. They only have one bad loss on the year, a 1 point road loss to Pitt. They don't really have any great wins on the season though. Their only win against an at-large team is a 12 point home win over UCLA, who is far from a lock. They also only have 5 wins against top 100 Kenpom teams, something that's contributing to them being #48 in WAB. The bright side is they have a TON of opportunity down the stretch. The bad news though is they have a very tough schedule coming up.
Tier 5 - If you squint hard enough and really really believe, they might have a 1% chance of making it
- Washington (#68 WAB)
- Minnesota (#103 WAB)
Washington realistically has the better chance than Minnesota. Both probably could only lose 1 more game max to have a chance. Technically that's not a 0% probability.
Tier 6 - Thanks for trying
- Maryland (#97 WAB)
- Northwestern (#114 WAB)
- Rutgers (#139 WAB)
- Penn State (#143 WAB)
- Oregon (#148 WAB)
If this was last year's Big Ten Tournament, there could be excitement about who misses the Big Ten Tourney out of these teams. Given that all 18 teams make it this year, the only chance any of these teams have is to win the Big Ten Tournament. Wouldn't that be something.
Team of the Week
Michigan Wolverines
In a week where a lot of teams ended up going 1-1, Michigan was one of the few teams to go 2-0 on the week, looking dominant once again as they beat Penn State and Ohio State by a combined 62 points.
Player of the Week
Bennett Stirtz - Iowa Hawkeyes
@ Washington
- 40 minutes - 22 points - 5 assists - 1 rebound - 1 steal - 1 turnover
- 4/5 2s (80%) - 4/8 3s (50%) - 2/4 FTs (50%)
Northwestern
- 40 minutes - 36 points - 2 assists - 2 rebounds - 2 steals - 3 turnovers
- 8/14 2s (57.1%) - 4/6 3s (66.7%) - 8/8 FTs (100%)
Week Schedule
Note - All times listed are in Eastern Standard Time
Game(s) of the Week
Purdue @ Nebraska - Tuesday 2/10 - 7:00 - FS1
Tuesday, February 10th
- Purdue @ Nebraska - 7:00 - FS1
- Wisconsin @ Illinois - 8:00 - Peacock
Wednesday, February 11th
- Iowa @ Maryland - 6:00 - FS1
- USC @ Ohio State - 6:30 - Big Ten Network
- Michigan @ Northwestern - 8:30 - Big Ten Network
- Penn State @ Washington - 10:30 - Big Ten Network
Friday, February 13th
- Michigan State @ Wisconsin - 8:00 - FOX
Saturday, February 14th
- Northwestern @ Nebraska - 1:00 - Big Ten Network
- UCLA @ Michigan - 1:00 - CBS
- Penn State @ Oregon - 3:00 - Big Ten Network
- Purdue @ Iowa - 5:00 - FOX
- Virginia vs Ohio State (in Nashville) - 8:00 - FOX
- Minnesota @ Washington - 10:00 - Peacocok
Sunday, February 15th
- Maryland @ Rutgers - 12:00 - FS1
- Indiana @ Illinois - 1:00 - CBS
