Another week, and another mixed bag of results for the Big East bubble. However, bubble teams need better than mixed results. Seton Hall stayed in the mix with a pair of solid home wins over Xavier and Marquette. Butler, meanwhile, missed an opportunity at St. John's — and by a 22-point margin — before returning home and dropping a Quadrant 3 game to Georgetown. As such, the Big East bubble might be down to just Seton Hall.

On the bright side, UConn, St. John's, and Villanova all remain in good shape. The Huskies are still widely projected as a No. 1 seed despite not receiving much love from predictive metrics; a 21-1 record with the lone loss coming to the projected No. 1 overall seed in Arizona is plenty worth top-line recognition for the Huskies. The Red Storm and Wildcats are well behind, but still appear in single-digit seed territory heading into February.

With the postseason in mind, this week's edition of the Big East Round-Up (and many of those that remain before the Big Dance) will dive into trends for the three likely tournament teams first, then look at other notable developments.

UConn rebounds, buries 3s to reach 11-0

For UConn, it’s all about shoring up potential holes for a national title run. Last week’s Big East Round-Up noted that UConn allowed a 37.4% offensive rebounding rate to its five opponents between Jan. 7 and Jan. 24, a much increased rate from the 26.7% rate allowed to its first 15 opponents. Over their wins over Providence and Creighton this past week, though, the Huskies rebounded — pun intended — to put those concerns behind them, at least for the time being. 

The Huskies held both Providence and Creighton below their season-long marks for offensive rebounding rates. Perhaps it bears noting that neither the Friars nor the Bluejays rate in the top 150 for OR%, though, so it might be too soon to say UConn has completely turned it around in this area. The Huskies will get their chance to slam the door on this concern when they travel to face St. John’s in a “circle your calendars” game on Feb. 6.

Another trend to watch for UConn is its 3-point shooting. The Huskies splashed 27-of-55 (49.1%) 3-pointers in their wins this past week, their best two-game display of the season. They are now one of only two teams in the country to rank in the top-60 for both 2P% and 3P% on both ends of the floor, and they’ve done it against the No. 19 KenPom SOS (Saint Louis is the other, having done so against the No. 190 KenPom SOS). 

When it comes to inside-out balance on both ends, few do it as well as the Huskies.

Looking into SJU's potential growth

St. John’s is slotted as a projected No. 6 seed both by Basket Under Review’s bracketology and the Bracket Matrix as of Feb. 3. The Red Storm have been excellent over the last month, winning seven straight games, but their resume still lacks top-tier wins compared to the teams around them; they are just 2-4 in Quadrant 1 games with one of those wins coming over a non-tournament team in Butler. The Big East lacks top-end opportunities aside from facing UConn, thus making it difficult to judge just how much growth SJU has made.

Still, early in the season, it was not uncommon for St. John’s to allow an offensive rebounding rate higher than its opposition season-long rate. The early-season losses to Alabama, Iowa State, Auburn and Kentucky all included surrendering at least a 30% offensive rebounding rate; three included giving up a rate over 44%. While the Red Storm still only rank 249th in defensive rebounding rate for the season, they have held six of their last seven opponents below their season-long rates: 

For reference, the Red Storm only held four of their first 14 opponents below their season-long offensive rebounding rates. If the improvement is to be believed, then SJU will have filled its most glaring hole from those early-season losses. With both games against UConn still on the schedule, the Red Storm will have the opportunities to prove it has improved since its last top-level matchups.

Villanova’s defensive staples are its drivers

Villanova’s defense ranks in the top 100 for both turnover rate forced (82nd) and free-throw rate allowed (42nd), and how it performs in the two categories has often defined its results. On the former, the Wildcats are 13-0 when forcing a turnover rate over 16%, and 16-1 when they force a turnover rate over 14% — with the only loss coming at KenPom No. 1 Michigan.

The correlation between TO% forced and results makes sense for Villanova given the impact on its offense. The Wildcats rate in the 89th percentile for FG% in transition (63.2%) compared to the 71st percentile in the half court (42.9%); they average 1.10 points per transition chance compared to 0.92 points per half court chance, per CBB Analytics. Their transition frequency in wins (16.6%) far outstrips the rate in losses (12.7%).

Villanova’s other key indicator is free-throw rate allowed, in which it is 10-0 when holding opponents below a .270 FTR (6-5 otherwise). The Wildcats rate third-best in the Big East in free-throw rate allowed during league games, knocking off Butler and Seon Hall on the road by keeping them from the foul line in front of their own crowds. 

The Wildcats put both defensive staples on display during their home win over Providence this past week; they forced the Friars into their fourth-highest turnover rate and fourth-lowest FTR.

Georgetown continues to improve with Iwuchukwu

Georgetown may have put an end to Butler’s bubble hopes in a 13-point road win this past weekend. The Hoyas scored 43 first-half points on seven 3s, then held the Bulldogs to just 15.2% shooting in the second half to preserve the victory. After a 1-7 start to Big East play, Georgetown has now won three straight games — including two on the road — to claw back to 12-10 (4-7 BE) overall. Since the start of the win streak on Jan. 24, only 12 teams in the country have raised their adjusted efficiency margin on KenPom by more.

The return of Vince Iwuchukwu has certainly played a factor, but in a different way than perhaps expected. The Hoyas are way better defensively with him on the floor as projected, but he also makes a significant difference to their offense. Georgetown has scored 9.7 more adjusted points per 100 possessions with him on the floor over the full season, and 19.5 more AdjP/100 with him on versus off over the last three games, per Hoop-Explorer.

Iwuchukwu is averaging 14.7 points per game on .750 eFG% over Georgetown’s win streak, providing an interior presence for guards KJ Lewis and Malik Mack. Lewis, in particular, has benefited greatly when Iwuchukwu has played this season; Lewis is posting a .622 eFG% when sharing the floor with the big man as opposed to a .399 eFG% without him.

Georgetown takes its three-game win streak back home this week for a pair of big opportunities against Creighton and Villanova.

Assessing Seton Hall’s at-large resume

With Georgetown putting a needle to Butler’s bubble, the Big East’s hopes for more than three bids to the NCAA Tournament rest mainly with Seton Hall. The Pirates fell out of most projected fields with a four-game losing streak in mid-January but they have climbed back into the mix by avoiding landmines at home to Xavier and Marquette. 

From a bracketology perspective, few resumes epitomize a bubble team like Seton Hall's. The Pirates rank between No. 47 and No. 55 across all seven team sheet metrics and do not have any elite wins to separate them from the pack. While they have no bad losses, they also played just the No. 250 nonconference strength of schedule. As such, they sit in the Last Four In/First Four Out department, depending on who you follow for brackets.

Additionally, the Pirates might be at the center of the bubble universe over the next two weeks. The critical stretch starts with a road trip to Villanova and Creighton this week before facing Providence at home and Butler on the road. Villanova and Butler are within the NET top 75 to qualify as road Q1 games, while Creighton is right on the edge as NET No. 76 — could be three Q1 opportunities within four games.

On the downside, though, the home game against Providence is one of three remaining Quadrant 3 landmines. The Pirates will be favored in each Q3 game to potentially boost their record, which is the positive view, but Butler’s loss to Georgetown is a cautionary tale: the lower-rated Big East teams might have poor NET rankings but are plenty dangerous.

Games to watch this week: 

  • Feb. 6: UConn at St. John's (Thrill Score: 86.2)
    • 8:00pm ET on FOX
    • Circle it, star it. Most anticipated BE game of the year.
  • Feb. 7: Seton Hall at Creighton (Thrill Score 64.4)
    • 6:00pm ET on Peacock
  • Feb. 7: Villanova at Georgetown (Thrill Score: 64.2)
    • 12:00pm ET on TNT
  • Feb. 4: Butler at Providence (Thrill Score 62.2)
    • 7:00pm ET on Peacock
  • Feb. 4: Creighton at Georgetown (Thrill Score: 58.9)
    • 7:30pm ET on Peacock