The latest week of Big East basketball saw UConn finally slip in a home loss to Creighton. It marked the first loss for one of the league's top three against someone other than themselves since Jan. 7. The Huskies bounced back to beat Villanova on the road in their next game, though, bolstering their resume in the aftermath of falling to a No. 2 seed at the selection committee's Bracket Preview.
While UConn was the only Big East team mentioned at the Bracket Preview, St. John's and Villanova also remain in strong position for single-digit seeds next month. This edition of the Big East Round-Up again looks at the league's likely NCAA Tournament representatives, as well as discusses Butler winning two straight and Seton Hall making...umm...history?
UConn lands a No. 2 seed at the Bracket Preview but...
...it might have returned to a projected No. 1 seed before the end of the day. During the Bracket Preview, the selection committee commented that UConn had been its No. 4 overall seed (last No. 1 seed) prior to its loss to Creighton. After a re-scrub following the loss, the committee voted in favor of Iowa State for the spot. Committee chair Keith Gill did express how close three teams were for the last No. 1 seed, even after UConn’s loss, during the Bracket Preview, though:
“It was really close with those three teams — Iowa State, UConn, and Houston,” Gill said. “The head-to-head between Iowa State and Houston got there. Then between UConn and Houston, UConn’s three best wins are better than Houston’s three best wins. When the committee was looking at it, they weighted those wins a little bit higher.”
Just hours after the Bracket Preview, Iowa State lost at BYU and UConn won at Villanova. The Huskies’ win ensured staying ahead of Houston, especially as the latter lost to Arizona on the same day, but also might have leapfrogged Iowa State. UConn’s resume metrics (4.0) remain higher than Iowa State’s (8.3), while the predictive metrics are closer than they were during the committee meetings earlier in the week. What had been a 4.3 differential in predictive metric average between Iowa State and UConn when the committee finalized its top 16 before the Bracket Preview now sits at just a 2.6 differential.
As such, UConn returned to the No. 1 line in our Basket Under Review bracketology. Do you think the committee would agree? Here’s a summary of what we know about the UConn vs. Iowa State comparison for a No. 1 seed heading into the last couple of weeks:
The week to define St. John's seeding is here.
With 13 consecutive wins, St. John’s owns the second-longest win streak in the country after undefeated Miami University. The Red Storm can boast two elite victories amid the stretch, winning at Villanova and vs. UConn, but the rest of the wins are not major needle-movers. Additionally, their predictive metrics have not changed much; they entered the win streak ranked at No. 25 on KenPom and have only jumped to No. 22.
While our bracketology at Basket Under Review still labels St. John’s as a projected No. 5 seed, the committee chair did not mention them as one of the top contenders to just miss out on the top 16 at the Bracket Preview. That acknowledgement instead went to Alabama and Arkansas. Let’s look at the resumes of those teams, as well as the committee’s last two No. 4 seeds, to judge where the Red Storm’s resume appears to be most lacking:
St. John’s owns the best individual win of the group but does not feature the quantity of quality wins that the other schools have. The Red Storm's wins over UConn and Villanova remain their only ones over the projected field; they are also the only one of the teams above with a Quadrant 3 loss. Without any top-end wins in nonconference play, SJU’s ceiling might be capped as a projected No. 5 seed.
If there is a chance to leap into the protected seed territory, though, this week will define it. The Red Storm first travel to Hartford in hopes of completing a season-sweep over a projected No. 1 or 2 seed in UConn before returning home to potentially sweep Villanova. It is easier said than done, but adding two more wins over the field — one of which being a signature opportunity — would likely leap the Red Storm higher on the seed list than they have been limited to thus far.
Assessing Villanova's big-game struggles
Villanova suffered a 10-point home loss to UConn in its most-recent game. While the Wildcats are still in strong position to reach the NCAA Tournament, their results against top competition thus far have indicated a potentially capped ceiling. They have played tough opponents close this season but most of them have wound up as losses. Villanova’s only win over a team projected similarly or higher on seed lists than itself this season came over Wisconsin. The ‘Cats have otherwise been swept by UConn, lost at Michigan by 28, lost at home to St. John’s and Creighton, and lost on a neutral-site to BYU.
Of course, only one of those losses is to a non-tournament team, so Villanova appears fairly upset-proof to this point, but it lacks the proven high-end potential. Given Villanova’s current seed trending (projected No. 7 seed), its only path to a Sweet 16 appearance would be by posting its best win of the season in the NCAA Tournament. With that in mind, Villanova’s output in its five losses to tournament teams with the rest of its schedule differs as such:
From an adjusted efficiency standpoint, Villanova's issues in its toughest games has been more noticeable offensively than defensively. While drop-offs across the board should be expected against vastly tougher competition than the rest of the season, and is the case here, the Wildcats' struggles inside are most concerning.
Using CBB Analytics' data, Villanova has attempted 23.6% of its shots within 4.5 feet in its five losses against elite competition and finished on only 57.7% of them; in all other games, the Wildcats attempt 33.4% of their shots from that range and convert on 69.0%. Perhaps the results are just a byproduct of four of those opponents ranking in the top 26 for 2P% allowed, but it might be noteworthy.
Shorthanded Butler continues a Big East season of streaks.
Butler started its season on uneven ground with starting point guard Jalen Jackson playing through pain from an offseason ankle dislocation. Fast-forward a couple of weeks, and a strong 6-1 start with a neutral-site win over Virginia was cut short by Jackson undergoing season-ending ankle surgery. The latest season-ending injury, to point guard replacement Azavier Robinson, came two games into what snowballed into a six-game losing streak.
Since Robinson's injury paired with also being down several others, the Bulldogs have only had eight or nine scholarship players available for the last six games. The streakiness of the team hasn’t stopped, though. Throughout conference play, it has been one streak after another; after winning their first conference game, the Bulldogs lost five straight before winning three straight and then losing six straight. Now, they have won two straight again heading into the closing stretch.
The most notable difference over the last two games has been improved finishing at the rim. The Bulldogs are in the 95th percentile for at-the-rim field goal attempt rate this season, but finished on only 46.5% of those shots during their six-game losing streak. Over the last two games, wins at Georgetown and vs. Xavier, they have shot 62.7% in that area.
Additionally, the remaining scholarship players are starting to understand the new roles they were thrust into amid the injuries. Freshman forward Jackson Keith, most notably, is making the most of his opportunities. After playing just 58 minutes between Nov. 15 and Feb. 4, he has averaged 17.6 minutes over the last five games. The per-game averages over this stretch — 4.6 points, 2.6 rebounds, 0.2 assists — do not jump off the page, but Butler has performed 32.1 adjusted points per 100 possessions better in the 44.8% of the time he has been on the floor compared to the 55.2% of the time he has sat.
Barring a run in MSG next month, it is a lost season full of ‘what ifs’ for Butler. The last two games have at least brought some optimism for the closing stretch, though.
Seton Hall beats Georgetown despite 0-for-18 from three.
Yes, the headline is correct. Seton Hall beat Georgetown this past week despite shooting 0-for-18 on 3-point attempts. The result marked the most misses without a make by a winning team since November 6 of 2018, when South Carolina also went 0-for-18 in a win over USC Upstate. The Pirates are also now just the sixth team to ever win a game with no makes and 18+ misses from beyond the arc.
More than just the astounding single-game result, Seton Hall's performance marked its 12th win this season with five or fewer made 3s — which leads the country.
Perimeter futility aside, Seton Hall is 19-9 (9-8 BE), and its win over Georgetown was desperately needed after having lost to DePaul earlier in the week. The Pirates' at-large hopes remained on life support with the win, but they still likely need wins over both UConn (away on Feb. 28) and St. John's (home on Mar. 6).
Games to watch this week:
- Feb. 25: St. John's at UConn (Thrill Score: 75.8)
- 7:00pm ET on Peacock
- Feb. 28: Villanova at St. John's (Thrill Score: 72.6)
- 8:00pm ET on FOX
- Feb. 28: Providence at Creighton (Thrill Score: 62.9)
- 5:30pm ET on TNT
- Feb. 28: Georgetown at Xavier (Thrill Score: 56.3)
- 1:30pm ET on TNT
- Feb. 24: Xavier at Providence (Thrill Score: 51.8)
- 7:30pm ET on TNT
