With the opening month now complete, the nonconference portion of the college basketball season is drawing to a close. Opportunities still exist for Big East teams to pick up quality wins before league play, but they are quickly dwindling. If the simple results of being 11-25 against the KenPom top 100 were not enough, the initial NET rankings release showed just how vital these last few games before league play could be.
This week's Big East Round-Up dives into that importance, the looming Rivalry Week matchups, and how the league's freshman class is emerging.
It's UConn and then everyone else so far.
UConn and St. John's entered this season as the favorites to win the Big East. Through the opening month of the season, the Huskies have taken the frontrunner spot amid a 6-1 start that includes wins over BYU and Illinois. The Huskies' lone loss came by four points to Arizona while playing without Tarris Reed. Reed is now back, and freshman Braylon Mullins just debuted. UConn is already a national title contender and should only improve.
As for St. John's, the results have not been there yet to warrant staying in Tier A. The Red Storm have actually improved on their preseason adjusted efficiency margin on KenPom, but are just 1-3 against their high-major opponents. The nonconference opportunities are not over, though; wins, not just quality performances, are needed against Ole Miss (Dec. 6) and Kentucky (Dec. 20) to leap back into the national top 10 conversations.
Nobody else has leapt into contender status early in the season, either. Creighton, Providence, and Marquette have all struggled, while Georgetown has stumbled recently. Butler, Villanova, and Seton Hall are playing well but not yet at national top-25 levels. As it stands, UConn isn't just the Big East favorite, but KenPom projects 16 league wins.
NET rankings bluntly highlight the league's slow start.
The initial NET rankings for the season are out, and they do not paint a flattering image of the Big East. The average NET ranking of teams in the league is just 89.64, well behind the SEC (54.19), Big 12 (60.19), Big Ten (69.33), and ACC (71.67). Over half of the Big East ranks sub-100, a potential massive detractor to the five teams currently rated in the top 65.
On the bright side, though, the top of the league is in better shape than a year ago. Last season's initial NET rankings featured just one Big East team in its top 38. This time around, three Big East squads are in the top 23: UConn (No. 8), Butler (No. 21), and St. John's (No. 23). The Huskies and Red Storm were expected to begin the season, but rankings without preseason data like the NET showing respect to the Bulldogs' 6-1 start is a good sign.
Rivalry Week opens the door of opportunity.
While the league has struggled to date, there is still time to pick up major nonconference results. While top-rated matchups this week are not limited to just rivalry games, Creighton, Providence, Marquette, and Xavier will all challenge rivals this week. Each has the opportunity to pick up KenPom top-100 wins for themselves and the league.
Creighton at Nebraska: Aside from its 27-point loss at Gonzaga, Creighton really hasn't played that poorly this season. The Bluejays are only 4-3 but have lost to three KenPom top-25 foes, including two in the top five. They are also coming off a win over Oregon, which hopefully gives them some confidence before facing Nicholls and then Nebraska. Nebraska is undefeated to begin this season with wins over Oklahoma and Kansas State.
Providence vs. Rhode Island: Albeit with a win over KP 99 Penn State under its belt, Providence is winless against its four toughest opponents this season after taking back-to-back losses to Wisconsin and Florida at the Rady Children's Invitational. The Friars are giving up 99.5 points per game in their losses, so they must shore up their defense against rival Rhode Island (KP 97) in their last top-200 nonconference game.
Marquette at Wisconsin: Marquette has had the ball either tied or trailing by just one on the final regulation possessions against both Dayton and Oklahoma, but ultimately has fallen short in all four of its games vs. KenPom top 200 foes. Another chance now looms as it heads on the road to face Wisconsin, which is 1-2 against top-200 teams. Marquette won at home last season and hopes to beat the Badgers in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2017 and 2018.
Xavier vs. Cincinnati: After falling as low as No. 111 on KenPom, Xavier has bounced back over the last two weeks. The Musketeers are 4-1 over their last five games, losing by just one to Georgia and adding a quality win over West Virginia, to climb back to No. 85. Now, they get a home chance against Cincinnati. Although Jovan Milicevic was held in check in Xavier's most recent win over Saint Francis, he had been averaging 17.8 points over the team's previous five games.
Iwuchukwu-less Hoyas take back-to-back losses.
Georgetown started this season as one of the Big East's top performers, at least in terms of quality wins. The Hoyas were 4-0 through the opening two weeks with wins over Maryland and Clemson to their name. The concern at that point was just that Georgetown hadn't dominated the margin game against lower-level opponents enough to raise its metrics.
On Nov. 18, though, another concern emerged when it was announced that Vince Iwuchukwu would miss 6-8 weeks due to a medical procedure. Georgetown won its first game without Iwuchukwu over Wagner, but since dropped back-to-back to Dayton and Miami-FL at the ESPN Events Invitational. Before Iwuchukwu's absence, Georgetown was ranked 77th in Torvik's rankings with preseason data excluded. It has ranked 183rd since.
Most notably, Georgetown's defense has fallen off a cliff. The Hoyas ranked 112th in offense and 73rd in defense over their first four games. Over the last three, those rankings have dipped to 136th and 239th. Per Hoop-Explorer, Georgetown operates at the equivalent of the 153rd-best team in the country in lineups without Iwuchukwu this season, a situation it will be stuck in while he recovers:
Freshmen are beginning to emerge league-wide.
This past week was arguably the best for the Big East's freshman class in the young season. Villanova's Acaden Lewis was named Freshman of the Week for continuing his strong play, while Marquette's Nigel James earned an Honor Roll mention.
For Lewis, he struggled in his college debut against BYU back on Nov. 3 – scoring only five points and spending the last segment of the game on the bench – but has otherwise been excellent since. He has reached double-digits as a scorer in five of Villanova's last six games, plus he is finding his rhythm as a distributor. Lewis has posted 24 assists to five turnovers over his last 109 minutes.
Lewis is a second-time BE FOTW winner, while UConn's Eric Reibe and Providence's Stefan Vaaks have taken home the honor once. If it wasn't for Lewis this week, though, James could have been the league's fourth winner in as many weeks. Albeit in a losing effort, James posted a season-high 20 points on 8-for-15 shooting against Oklahoma while also dishing four assists to one turnover.
Elsewhere in the league, DePaul's Kruz McClure scored 22 points against LSU, Seton Hall's Najai Hines ranks second nationally in block rate, and Butler's Stink Robinson earned his first start while Jalen Jackson was out with an injury. Robinson's per-game numbers don't pop, but Butler has been 13.3 adjusted points per 100 possessions better with the defensive pest on the floor versus without.
This all goes without mentioning the league's top-rated freshman coming into the season. Braylon Mullins did not star in his UConn debut this past week, scoring two points in 10 minutes against Illinois, but his healthy return adds another piece to Dan Hurley's puzzle.
Yet-to-be-mentioned games to watch:
- Dec. 2: UConn at Kansas
- Dec. 6: St. John's at Ole Miss
- Dec. 6: Seton Hall at Kansas State
- Dec. 6: Boise State at Butler
- Dec. 7: Georgetown at North Carolina
