The latest week of Big East basketball saw a preseason favorite start to realize its potential with St. John’s knocking off Butler and Creighton by double-digits in back-to-back road games. For the Bulldogs, it marked three consecutive losses as their bubble hopes are dwindling. For the Bluejays, a road win over Villanova earlier in the week buoyed its hopes. In addition to St. John’s, UConn and Seton Hall also went a combined 3-0.

There were plenty of storylines to track in the bottom half of the league standings as well, though, including DePaul continuing to show more positive signs. Without further ado, let’s jump into this week’s Big East Round-Up.

St. John's returns to its original lineup and thrives.

St. John’s embarked on a two-game road trip to Butler and Creighton this past week with its season at an inflection point. The Red Storm had just lost at home to Providence to dip to 9-5, and could have slipped further. Instead, Rick Pitino’s squad appears to have discovered itself. St. John’s outscored Butler by 14 in the second half of a road win in Hinkle Fieldhouse, then jumped all over Creighton with a 18-point advantage at halftime of another road win. As a result, SJU is back to 18th nationally on KenPom.

A change over the stretch has been a return to their initial starting lineup of Ian Jackson, Oziyah Sellers, Bryce Hopkins, Dillon Mitchell, and Zuby Ejiofor for the first time since the season opener. The more positionless group is geared towards switching, and has caused issues for opponents. Now with 90 possessions played together, this five-man group is posting a +44.4 adjusted net rating on Hoop-Explorer:

For all the discussion of a lack of a true point guard, the lineup only has a 12.2% turnover rate. The observed efficiency margin of this lineup on EvanMiya (47.1) is the 15th-highest among lineups with at least 90 possessions played together in the country.

Additionally, Coach Pitino is getting more out of his depth, particularly from his returners. Ruben Prey (10 points in 18 minutes) and Lefteris Liotopoulos (10 points in 18 minutes) both set season-highs in points and playing time against Butler, with the latter besting those highs just one game later. Liotopoulos scored 17 points on 5-for-8 from three in the road win at Creighton.

Xavier flips scripts in win over Providence

Xavier entered its matchup with Providence last week having trailed at half in each of its first five Big East games. While it was able to come back to win at Georgetown, the fact remained that the team was consistently fighting from behind — and by an average halftime deficit of 12.0 points. The Musketeers finally flipped that in their home bout with the Friars, not only leading by nine at the break but doing so after leading for 18:38 of the first half.

For the season, Xavier's offense is scoring 18.6 more adjusted points per 100 possessions in second halves compared to first halves. As a result, if the strong start against the Friars is any indication of improved first-half play, the Musketeers could play spoiler more than expected down the stretch. 

Additionally, Xavier also flipped the script from the loss it was coming off. Before the win over Providence, the Musketeers nearly pulled off a comeback against Marquette but could not overcome a season-worst marks in turnover (22.7%) and defensive rebounding (58.8%) rates. They responded with a largely mistake-free performance against the Friars, dishing out 23 assists to only four turnovers (season-low 5.0 TO%) and posting their third-best defensive rebounding rate of the season (best against a high-major opponent).

UConn's turnover numbers are increasing

UConn isn’t just the best team in the Big East but there remains an argument that it is the best team in the country. Sure, the Huskies are closer to No. 21 on KenPom than they are to No. 1, but the fact remains that they are 16-1 with their only loss coming without two starters (Tarris Reed and Braylon Mullins) and to undefeated Arizona. As such, evaluation of UConn right now comes down to discussing its chances at a third national title in four years.

With that in mind, UConn’s turnover numbers are trending in the wrong direction. Through 10 games, the Huskies had been recording just a 14.1% turnover rate. Over the past seven contests, though, they have coughed up 19.5% of possessions.

Building on that, UConn’s remaining schedule features more opportunistic defenses. Only 41% of UConn’s games so far this season have come against defenses ranked in the upper half of the country for turnover rate forced, while 71% of its remaining games are against such competition. With turnovers as a potentially-burgeoning issue for UConn, though, facing more teams looking to force them might be a blessing. The Huskies should get plenty of reps against pressure down the stretch to prepare them for a tournament run. 

If the turnovers do not improve, though, it wouldn’t be a first time for UConn to thrive regardless. The Huskies’ best season under Dan Hurley (37-3 record, national champions in 2024) coincided with their best ball security rank (36th in turnover rate), but they also won the NCAA Tournament the year prior ranking only 236th in turnover rate…so… *shrug*.

DePaul is raising its floor with steady defense.

DePaul is slowly but surely working its way up the efficiency metrics. After falling to as low as No. 137 on KenPom in early December, the Blue Demons have outperformed analytic expectations in seven of its last eight games while climbing to No. 108. Their 29-spot jump since Dec. 9 is the 28th-largest in the country over this span — and the largest jump among high-major programs. Obviously, starting lower than most high-majors played a factor but their growth still stands. Most notably, the Blue Demons are defending at a very high level, jumping from 122nd in adjusted efficiency on Dec. 9 all the way to No. 43 now.

The improved defense was on full display in their home win over Georgetown this past week. Not only did the Blue Demons hold the Hoyas to just 50 points, but they allowed only one made shot over the last 23:19 of the game. DePaul’s Layden Blocker was not without his warts offensively, committing seven turnovers, but that did not impact his defensive effort. Blocker held Georgetown’s Malik Mack, who had been averaging 14.8 points per game on .474 eFG%, to just nine points on 2-for-12 shooting (.167 eFG%). He also briefly changed sports mid-game:

For the season, DePaul has held opponents to 10.4 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions with Blocker on the floor compared to without. As a team, the Blue Demons have reached their top-50 adjusted defensive rank by running teams off the 3-point line (17th in 3PA/FGA), suffocating the interior (18th in 2P% allowed), and forcing giveaways (69th in TO%). 

The defense is steady and not reliant on 3-point variance, which should keep the Blue Demons in a lot of games moving forward. Their ceiling will depend on if the offense can close games.

Seton Hall approaches its toughest stretch

Seton Hall has been among the nation’s best surprises this season, emerging as a likely NCAA Tournament team despite being picked last in the preseason Big East poll. But despite their overall record (14-2), the Pirates are still only regarded as a projected No. 9 seed by the Bracket Matrix as of the last update. Ranking 40th or below in all three quality metrics — BPI, KenPom, and T-Rank — is the main culprit, but opportunities to continue rising are ahead.

Up next on Seton Hall’s schedule is a homestand against UConn and Butler, followed by a road bout with St. John’s. With an average KenPom opponent rank of 28.3, this is easily the Pirates’ toughest stretch of schedule to date; its current toughest three-game stretch was against an average KenPom opponent rank of 61.0 (Villanova, Marquette, Creighton).

An area of focus to watch in the coming week and a half could be Seton Hall’s defensive rebounding. UConn is the league’s best team and presents plenty of threats across the board, including ranking 99th in offensive rebounding rate, while Butler (18th in OR%) and St. John’s (25th in OR%) represent Seton Hall’s two toughest offensive rebounding opponents all season. 

The Pirates have allowed 4.4 more adjusted points per 100 possessions to teams who rank in the upper half of the country for offensive rebounding rate (sample size of nine games) than to the bottom half (sample size of nine games). Second-chances are one of the only ways to find gaps in an otherwise elite defensive unit.

Games to watch this week:

  • Jan. 17: St. John's at Villanova (Thrill Score: 81.8)
    • 8:00pm ET on Peacock
  • Jan. 13: UConn at Seton Hall (Thrill Score: 73.6)
    • 8:00pm ET on TruTV
  • Jan. 13: Villanova at Providence (Thrill Score: 72.6)
    • 6:30pm ET on Fox Sports 1
  • Jan. 16: Creighton at Providence (Thrill Score: 70.2)
    • 6:30pm ET on Fox Sports 1
  • Jan. 14: Butler at Xavier (Thrill Score: 61.6)
    • 6:30pm ET on Fox Sports 1