Even after three months of jostling just below them in the standings, the closing weeks of Big 12 conference play have proven that it’s always been Arizona in a tier on their own this season. It's worth noting that Houston has gotten things back in order after dropping three straight games for the first time since 2017.
But after the Coogs, nobody has matched Tommy Lloyd’s Wildcats’ consistency all season. Arizona clinched a share of the title last weekend when they blew the doors off of Kansas, winning 84-61. Then they won the league outright with a game to play, controlling their game against Iowa State for 40 minutes and winning 73-57.
Arizona feels like a #1 seed lock, regardless of what happens this weekend or in the Big 12 Tournament. But after first place and arguably second, there’s plenty of fluctuation in terms of quality of play and seed line opportunities in this conference.
Red Raiders won’t quit
When Texas Tech announced JT Toppin’s injury last month, throwing dirt on their NCAA Tournament chances was an understandable impulse. The Preseason All-American forward accounted for over a quarter of the team’s field goal attempts, leading the team in scoring. Perhaps just as important, his 105 offensive rebounds accounted for 38.6% of the team’s offensive rebounds at the time of his injury.
But Grant McCasland didn’t look at his frontcourt pieces to try and replace Toppin’s production in the aggregate; he’s instead leaned further on his backcourt group and pivoted to a heavy perimeter game over the last four games. They’ve gone from post-ups and paint jumpers as around 20% of their attempts to 11.8% without Toppin.
Instead, the Red Raiders are relying on lead guard Christian Anderson and up-and-coming freshman guard Jaylen Petty as multi-level scorers able to hit perimeter shots and get downhill to the rim. Transfer senior wing Donovan Atwell has stepped up as the second option behind Anderson, going from a 12.5 points per game scorer to 18.8 points.
Texas Tech is 3-1 since the lineup change, with wins over Cincinnati and Iowa State. If they can get a home win over BYU on Saturday night, they’ll be locked in as the #3 seed in the Big 12 Tournament and have made a compelling case over their final 5 games that they should remain a protected seed in the NCAA tournament with legit second weekend aspirations.
The Horned Frogs prove they’re the real deal
The team that gave the Red Raiders their lone loss in the last four games is none other than Jamie Dixon’s TCU team, who have weathered turbulence all year to stand as likely a locked-up bid earner as of Tuesday night. It didn’t look like a real possibility out of the gates; the Corpus Christi team started conference play with a 1-4 record, including a bad loss to Utah. But credit is due to a team that is headed into its final regular season game, having won 7 of its last 8.
The big thing for TCU is that their offense has improved enough to be respectable while maintaining their dependable defensive identity and even raising it to another level over their last 8 matchups. Since February 7th, they have given up the 5th-lowest points per possession in the conference and are leading the league in forcing turnovers, with an opponent turnover rate of 18% (95th percentile nationally).
Their offense has improved mostly by their ability to own the glass and create second chance opportunities. They’re rebounding on offense at a 39.3% rate (99th percentile) and have 21.4% of their points coming from second chance attempts. Forward Xavier Edmonds has been playing his best basketball over the last four games. He’s averaging 16.5 points and 11 rebounds (5 of those being offensive) since February 21st.
TCU will have one final test to close out the season, playing a Cincinnati team that has won 6 of its last 7.
Iowa State and BYU headed the wrong direction
It seems to be happening to Iowa State once again; the Cyclones are unable to show up consistently when they play outside of Ames, Iowa and their dominant midseason team just isn’t visible in how they’re closing the season. Since 2023, TJ Otzelberger’s team is 8-11 in the closing 5 games of the Big 12 season.Iowa State finished their road conference games with a record of 4-5 this season, and it’s not just that they’re falling short when they’re away–they’re getting smoked. It culminated in a 16-point loss to Arizona on Monday, their third loss in four games.
The toll of high usage for do-everything forward Joshua Jefferson has become evident. He’s 19 for 59 (32%) from the field over the last four games. The senior hasn’t shot 50% or better from the field in his last 7 games.
The Cyclones’ defense has seemingly disappeared as well. In their first 13 games, Iowa State was holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 48.6%. It’s grown to 58.3% from their loss to BYU through Monday night. A month ago, Iowa State was on the outside track–but with a pathway–for a #1 seed. Now they appear to be a clear #3 seed.
Another team dropping games left and right is Kevin Young’s BYU Cougars, who have lost 8 of their 11 games. Even as AJ Dybantsa puts the offense on his back post Saunders' injury and proving himself worthy of the top pick of the NBA draft, BYU’s surrounding pieces can’t rise to the occasion and help in the other facets of the game.
Young and his staff have opted to play bigger and try to win on the glass to replace Saunders’ minutes. The result has meant worse closeouts on the perimeter and BYU has given up 41.9% from three over the last 5 games, the worst percentage in the country during that time period.
The Cougars play Texas Tech, who, as we discussed earlier, is lighting it up from the perimeter, to close out the season. With how they’ve played over their last 5 games, it’s not far-fetched to envision a BYU team with arguably the best NBA prospect in the country to finish on a 6-game losing streak. Going all out on a big three has been a difficult style for BYU all season, a big two with Dybantsa and Rob Wright (who’s shooting 26.1% from three since Saunders’ injury) seems untennable.
Games to watch
- Houston at Oklahoma State, Saturday at 12 pm ET, CBS
- Cincinnati at TCU, Saturday at 2 pm ET, TNT
- Texas Tech at BYU, Saturday at 10:30 pm ET, ESPN
