Tournament play has already begun in Kansas City and the games played on commissioner Brett Yormak’s LED glass floor have confirmed a lot of the narratives we’ve established over these nearly four months together. The Big 12 has had upsets by seed line, but in terms of analytical rankings, the first two days of games have been chalk, save for Arizona State’s win over Baylor and Cincinnati's one-point loss to UCF. Today is when the rest of the league takes part in the action and here are the storylines established and questions remaining for this conference tournament.

Lessons from early results

BYU’s defense decides their fate

Last edition of the round-up, there was noted concern for how, despite AJ Dybanta’s unbelievable production on offense, BYU’s defense would prevent them from having meaningful success in the remainder of March. Since then, the Cougars have rattled off three straight wins against Texas Tech and their first two matchups in the conference tournament.

The defense in totality has not changed. Their defensive rating has actually gotten worse, going from 121 from February 18th to March 3rd to 122.6 in the last three games. But, the points per possession has actually improved game by game, going from 1.25 against Texas Tech, to 1.17 against Kansas State, to 0.77 against West Virginia on Wednesday night.

BYU faces Houston on Thursday to see if they can win 3 games in 3 days. Kelvin Sampson’s team is shooting 36.7% from three over their last 5 games. Dybantsa is averaging 33.5 points per game in the Big 12 tournament with an effective field goal of 60%. In their 3 seasons in the Big 12, Houston has allowed a player to score 30 points just twice.

Bobby Hurley out at Arizona State

Wednesday night was the last night of Bobby Hurley's tenure as Sun Devils coach, as he led his team to a 91-42 loss against Iowa State. The 49-point loss was the widest margin in a Big 12 tournament game. He finishes his 11-season tenure in Tempe with a 185-167 record, 11-27 in the Big 12 conference. Arizona State made the NCAA tournament 3 times with Hurley, all while in the Pac-12, with the most recent appearance coming in 2023.

There was an interesting, venerated mid-major coach’s name that was floated on The Burner Discord by Trilly Donovan less than a week ago, whose season will continue into the NCAA tournament. Locking up a head coach is paramount as they try and decide if they should try and retain freshman Massamba Diop and sophomore Santiago Trouet before the portal opens

UCF ends Cincinnati’s tournament chances

Despite Wes Miller’s Bearcats coming into the conference tourney as one of the hottest teams in the league, UCF was able to end their 3 game losing streak and end Cincinnati’s season and any possibility to sneak into an at-large bid by stacking wins in Kansas City.

The Golden Knights came back from a 12-point deficit with 9:24 left in the second half and outlasted Cincinnati in overtime. The Bearcats led by 8 points with 2:17 left in regulation. UCF held Baba Miller without a made field goal in his nearly 33 minutes of play and forced him into 7 turnovers. UCF scored 17 second-chance points in the game, accounting for 25.7% of their points. Their reward for surviving the Bearcats is a matchup with the #1 seed, Arizona Thursday afternoon.

For Cincinnati, it sounds like Miller’s 7 wins in 10 games to close the season may not be enough to keep him in uptown for another season. Miller is 100-74 in his five seasons with the Bearcats and 23-33 in Big 12 games. 

Questions for the Big 12 tournament

Can Texas Tech make a run with a short rotation?

The Red Raiders have exceeded expectations since the JT Toppin injury, but 3 wins in 3 days for a Big 12 tournament title is the perfect stress test for McCasland and his staff's shortened rotation. Even just a win before exiting the league tournament would go a long way toward building this team up after back-to-back losses to TCU and BYU to close out the regular season.

That one win could be a big ask, considering they play an Iowa State team that just scored 91 points on Wednesday. In the last two games, the Red Raiders have played relatively good defense, holding opponents’ effective field goal percentage to 50.4%. The issue was sloppy point guard play (Anderson committed 6 turnovers against TCU) and getting soundly beaten on the glass, giving up 21 second-chance points per game and an opponent offensive rebound rate of 45%.

LeJuan Watts is averaging 27 minutes per game on the season, but only averaged 18.5 in these final two matchups. Getting the frontcourt unified and competent is essential to Texas Tech’s hopes of a second-weekend appearance.

Does a Kansas, Iowa State or Houston run affect seed lines?

The committee has made it clear, over the years and in conversations this season, that these final pre-NCAA tournament games are not valued more than games that occurred in November or December. And as the slugfest of conference play continued, missteps by Iowa State, Houston and Kansas have made three teams that were at one point in the running for top 3 seed lines with some glass ceilings that fall short of January prognostications.

While Houston showed flashes as one of the best teams in the country and freshman Kingston Flemings’ production never really wavered, the Coogs’ 3 game losing streak removed any chance of them becoming the final #1 seed. But now they appear firmly as a #2 seed requiring decisive wins heading into the finals game and early losses by Florida and UConn for them to even get a look at a #1 seed.

Iowa State’s 6 losses in league play raised the same concerns the Cyclones have heard for years as a team that performs differently in Ames versus on the road or in a neutral environment. With some help, they do have a path to a #2 seed by Selection Sunday, but they will need to show that their offense travels against higher competition. Their win on Wednesday was the first time in over a month that do everything forward Joshua Jefferson shot above 50% from the field in a game.

Kansas remains one of the most volatile teams in the country, winning just 3 of their last 7 games to close out the season. Cohesion between Peterson and the rest of the Jayhawks is essential for their NCAA tournament hopes and ever realizing their individual and team ceilings. If Kansas is able to rattle off wins against TCU and potentially Houston or BYU again it will be hard to deny them as a #3 seed come Selection Sunday. But finding consistency on offense and consistency as a team is more vital for their chances at a second weekend trip in the tournament for the first time since winning the national championship in 2022.