Things change quickly in the final stretch of conference play and we are fully in the cannibalizing, parity part of the Big 12 seasonal cycle. Iowa State is back after beating a cooked Kansas team that also lost to Cincinnati. What’s this? I’m hearing Iowa State has now lost to a beleaguered BYU team?... And I’m hearing that Kansas just boat-raced #5 Houston.

We even got Cincinnati on a heater, getting called a tournament team by Bill Self, only three days later to lose to Texas Tech, and putting that pipe dream to rest. The Red Raiders also showcased a reassuring performance that despite losing their All-American big, they are still a formidable team with the ability to get to the second week of the tournament. Luke Bamgboye and Josiah Moseley both recorded 3 blocks apiece and helped limit Moustapha Thiam to 7 for 19 shooting after he went 11 for 17 against Flory Bidunga and Kansas.

Here are the trends to follow through the weekend and the final two weeks of the regular season.

UCF regains their footing

After three straight losses to open February, the Knights were still considered a tournament team if they just beat who they were supposed to beat the rest of the way. But Johnny Dawkins’ team exceeded those expectations by winning three straight, including a 97-84 win over BYU on Tuesday. In this 3 game stretch, the team is shooting 52.8% from the field and a blistering 48.3% from behind the arc.

Stretch forward Jordan Burks has been a nightmare matchup over this stretch, shooting 11 for 24 from distance and averaging 20.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.3 stocks. Point guard Themus Fulks has also been vital in helping the Knights get back on track. He’s averaging 20.6 points and 7.3 assists during this win streak. Fulks finished with 24 points and 11 assists against BYU, making him the school record holder for assists in a single season. It was the first game Fulks reached double-digit assists since January 14th. The senior point guard is second only to Christian Anderson in assists per game and assist percentage in Big 12 play.

The Knights are currently sitting in 6th place in the Big 12 standings, heading into the weekend, with their three remaining games against teams that are all 1-4 over their last 5 games. With the current top 5 teams all playing each other, there is a non-negligible chance that the Knights finish fifth or higher in the regular season. 

Houston’s subtle defensive regression

The topic may seem nitpicky and an instance of staring at something long enough that you convince yourself you’ve found a flaw, but after the fourth loss in conference play by Houston–their highest number of losses since joining the conference–it seems to be clear that while their defense is still top 10 good, it is not the dominant, game tilting unit that we’ve seen from Phi Slama Jama their last couple of seasons. To put it simply, they miss J’wan Roberts.

There are marginal changes in opponent shooting percentages, but the largest difference lies in the regression from the frontcourt in creating turnovers and protecting the rim. In Quad 1 games this season, Houston holds a 9.9% block rate, a considerable drop off from last year’s 14.4% or 2023-2024’s 16.1%. Their defensive rebounding percentage this season is also the worst over their last three. 

And Houston's ability to keep its best players on the floor has been an ongoing issue. They have the worst free throw rate in the Big 12 on defense, sitting at 41.5%. Joseph Tugler continues to have issues staying on the floor, committing 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes this season. When Tugler is on the floor, Houston has a 99th percentile defensive rating at 95.3. When he’s sidelined, that goes up to 101.2 (79th percentile). Tugler is averaging 22.4 minutes per game.

This is not to suggest that this is an insurmountable impediment for Kelvin Sampson’s team to get a national title, but it does highlight a real limitation should they face one of the elite frontcourts in March that have the type of usage and death to push Houston’s light frontcourt to its limits.

AJ Dybantsa keeps getting better

Last week we discussed the impact of Richie Saunders’ season-ending injury and how it limits and already top-heavy BYU on both ends of the court. There is now enough data to support those claims and begin to show how Kevin Young’s team will look to replace 18 points and 12-plus attempts per game on offense, and how they will pivot a middle-of-the-road defense without its best turnover creator.

On offense, the answer has been a loud and resounding: AJ Dybantsa. The potential first pick of the draft has taken an absurd workload on throughout the season, but especially now that he’s without their second-leading scorer. His usage has gone from 32% on the season to 36% over the last 4 games. His minute average has risen from 33.8 to 39.5 minutes. He’s taking 5 more shots a night and has gone from 25.1 to 28.3 points per game.

Dybantsa, on the season, has scored 43 more points than anyone else in the country, and that number looks to only grow as the Cougars’ season rests on his shoulders. In a run of jaw-dropping production, it’s his self-creation that may be the most impressive aspect of this 4 game stretch. Only 1.5 of the freshman’s 10 makes from the field per game are assisted.

BYU ranks 64th in Bart Torvik since the Saunders injury, with the 79th-ranked adjusted defense. The Cougars have the 4th-worst opponent effective field goal percentage in the conference in this time frame. With how remarkable Dybantsa has been, the star can only do so much to cover up a flawed team on both ends of the court.

Games to watch

  • Texas Tech at Iowa State, Saturday at 4 pm ET, CBS
  • Kansas at Arizona, Saturday at 4 pm ET, ESPN
  • BYU at West Virginia, Saturday at 5:30 pm ET, FOX
  • Iowa State at Arizona, Monday at 9 pm ET, ESPN
  • BYU at Cincinnati, Tuesday at 9 pm ET, ESPN2