This is a look at the week ahead in women's college basketball. Each week Skim Milkey will be providing five players to keep an eye on, five teams to watch this week, five stats, five games you wouldn't think to keep tabs on, and five tweets.
5 Players I Have My Eye On
Toby Fournier
Fournier has become a consistent piece to this Duke roster this season and has only gotten better as the year has progressed. She actually just had her worst game of the season against North Carolina, but in that game she still grabbed 12 rebounds, including six offensive rebounds. Over the past two months she has scored over 20 points seven times and is a threat every single night to grab double-digit rebounds. She is averaging 2.2 blocks and a steal per game in ACC play this season, showing just how important she is on both ends of the floor.
Nicole Stephens
Stephens has been a key player this year for Dayton, as she is scoring 11.1 points a contest and has very good shooting splits. She has dished off 3.6 assists per game and has ascended her game into another stratosphere this season. Her offensive rating last year was 85.7, and this season it has skyrocketed to 110.3. She is dishing off more assists this season, and her effective field goal percentage is nearly eight points higher than at any other point in her career. As Dayton has needed a steady presence this season, it's been Stephens who has stepped up to take control.
Tess Heal
Heal has been part of the upper-class trio for Kansas State that has kept the ship upright this season. Kansas State is an extremely young group, so they look to the play of their upperclassmen to lead them through the season. She has been great this year at understanding her role and playing it well. She has the highest offensive rating on the team and does it despite having the 11th highest usage rate. She has been very good in conference play, scoring in double figures nine times, and has put together two 25+ point games. Her ability to impact the game without scoring the ball cannot be undersold either.
Allie Turner
Turner might be one of the quietest mid-major stars in the country, as she produces at such a high level but doesn't necessarily get the recognition that others do. She is nearly automatic at the free throw line, she's shooting 45 percent from behind the arc, and she has an assist rate of over 20 percent. She gets to the basket with the ball and shoots nearly 50 percent around the basket, and she does a solid job of taking care of the basketball. Of her 27 games this season, only in six of those has she had a sub-100 offensive rating. Turner is a huge part of this Gonzaga team, which is looking to make a run at an NCAA tournament appearance.
Ryiah Wilson
Wilson is one of the top defenders in the country, and I've wanted to highlight her for a little while now. She possesses a steal rate of 6.0%, which is elite, but she also turns those steals into points, as she ranks in the 83rd percentile in fast break points and has scored 30.9% of her points this season in fast break situations. Over her last five games, she's grabbing 3.2 steals a game and is doing an excellent job of defending without fouling. As she continues to mature on the offensive side of the basketball, Wilson's defensive prowess will always be there.
5 Teams to Watch This Week
Southern Indiana
Southern Indiana has a big week ahead of them with a pair of games in Illinois. The first is a matchup with Western Illinois, the current OVC leader. If Southern Indiana is able to win on the road, then it opens up the possibility of grabbing the top seed in the conference tournament. If they are unable to win, then they are likely all but removed from conference title contention unless they get quite a bit of help. Southern Indiana likely has the game on Thursday circled.
Colorado
Colorado has firmly planted itself on the bubble this season, and a 2-0 week could do wonders for their NCAA tournament hopes. They travel to Arizona on Tuesday, which is a must-win at this point in the season. On Saturday they host Texas Tech, and a win would be huge for their tournament chances, provided they are able to take care of business the following week. Colorado has gotten on a roll as of late with three wins in a row over TCU, BYU, and Houston. If they are able to extend that win streak to five games and beyond, they are looking at much better chances to get into the tournament.
UC Irvine
This could be the week that UC Irvine takes control of the Big West, or it could be the week that they lose the Big West. The conference at the top is extremely crowded, with four teams within two games of each other. UC Irvine has a game on Thursday against Long Beach State, and then all eyes turn to the showdown with UC San Diego on Saturday. If UC Irvine wins, that props up their chances to grab the #1 seed in the conference to 80 percent, but if they lose to UC San Diego, their chances will fall all the way to 11.1 percent of getting the top seed in the conference tournament. For UC Irvine, this game against UC San Diego might be the most critical game of the season yet.
Arizona State
Similar to Colorado, Arizona State is right on the bubble and is in need of some wins coming down the stretch. They have a great opportunity for a Quad 1 road win as they face off with Iowa State on Wednesday. Provided Arizona State can win that game, then they will be in an extremely good spot for March. However, if they lose that game, they'll have to take care of business against Houston before a very critical last week of the season.
San Diego State
Thanks to a few of the teams in the Mountain West tripping over each other this past week, San Diego State is in firm control of the conference. They have a very important game this week against UNLV, who is currently in second place in the Mountain West. How important is the game? With a San Diego State win, their odds to win the conference go up to 99.8 percent. With a loss, their odds drop to 86.2 percent. They are likely looking to get the win on Wednesday against UNLV and all but wrap up the conference title.
5 Stats to Know
40.1%
UConn is shooting the ball at a 40.1% clip from behind the arc as a team. That is an asinine number, and it seems like they need to be taking quite a few more shots from behind the perimeter. They are #154 in the country in 3-point rate this season. If it's working, it's working.
100%
Staying with the 3-pointer for a minute, this 100 percent signifies the percentage of shots that Purdue's McKenna Layden has taken from behind the arc this season. Of Layden's 35 shot attempts, 35 of them have come from behind the perimeter. She's knocking them down at a 45.7 percent clip, though, so there is no reason for her to stop shooting them. (Skim's Note: I was going to write about a different stat, but I saw Layden added four more 3-point attempts over the past week.)
7.7
This is the number of personal fouls drawn this season by S'Mya Nichols of Kansas. She has had great success in drawing fouls this year and is over 0.6 fouls drawn a game better than the next person on the list.
2
Troy is the only school in the country to have won two games after trailing by 20 points in the contest. Troy beat Marshall 85-82 after trailing 50-29 just before halftime, and they took down Longwood 86-83 after being down 46-23 with 3:30 left in the second quarter. There have only been eight instances in which a team has come back from a deficit of 20 points or more, and Troy holds two of those games.
3
This is something that I've been tracking here for the past few weeks, and we are coming to the end of these three teams being able to secure a win. Valparaiso (0-26) has five games left, and their best chance to gather a win is at home against Illinois State. Not looking good for Valparaiso. Niagara (0-25) has a solid shot to grab a win this week as they play Mount St. Mary's and Rider; BartTorvik gives them a 3% and 15% chance to win those games, respectively. Central Connecticut (0-24) has a real shot to get a win, as they have a 21% chance or higher to win in four of their last five games of the year.
5 Games to Monitor
2/16 - Richmond @ George Mason
This is a very key game in the race for the Atlantic 10, as both of these teams are still looking to catch Rhode Island at the top of the conference. Richmond has the best shot to catch Rhode Island, as they sit one game behind them in the conference standings, and they still have their second game against Rhode Island later this year. If George Mason wins this game, then it will be a double whammy of sorts for Richmond. It will push Richmond two games back of the conference lead along with George Mason, and it would also be a huge knock on the Spiders' at-large chances.
2/17 - Tennessee @ Ole Miss
Both of these teams are jockeying for position in the SEC tournament, and both are coming off of tough losses over the weekend. Tennessee lost a close one to Texas while Ole Miss lost by 17 against Kentucky. Tennessee is looking to knock off the host as they look to continue to bolster their resume this season. Ole Miss is 6-4 over their last 10 games and will be hoping to end the season with a little momentum. Regardless of where each of these teams stands right now, this game is setting up to be a fun matchup of two teams who defend the perimeter very well.
2/18 - Ohio State @ Minnesota
This will be a fascinating game between two vastly different offensive profiles. Ohio State wants to get out and run in transition as they play at the 13th fastest tempo in the country. Minnesota wants to slow it down, work the clock, and play the possession game as they operate at the 323rd fastest tempo in the country. The story of this game will simply be who can get the other team out of that offense the quickest. Minnesota doesn't turn the ball over, ever, while Ohio State looks to create a ton of turnovers and score off of them. This will be a big game for Minnesota's hopes to potentially host games in March.
2/21 - Ball State @ Miami (OH)
This game will play an incredibly huge role in the MAC title race, as both of these teams currently have one loss in conference play. Miami (OH) previously defeated Ball State on the road by 20 points, but I have no doubt that this game will be a closer game than that contest nearly a month ago. Since that game, Ball State has been playing some of their best basketball of the year, and Miami (OH) has continued to roll through the MAC, besides a one-point loss to UMass. Whoever wins this game will gain a huge upper hand in their bid to be the outright winner of the conference title.
2/22 - Michigan @ Iowa
This is the biggest game left in the Big Ten in terms of seeding implications for the Big Ten tournament. UCLA, at this point, has all but wrapped up the top seed in the conference tournament, but the coveted second seed is still up for grabs. Michigan can likely take claim of the second spot with a win in this game, but if Iowa ends up going 2-0 this week, then they'll likely control their destiny for the second seed. There are a lot of games to play this week in the Big Ten, and this game could be one that has a huge impact on the conference race.
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