I'm going to take a brief look at the NIT finals in Indy and The Crown semis in Las Vegas, but before that, make sure you check out Basket Under Review's Final Four notes and Scout Team analysis:

2026 Final Four Preview: Illinois vs. UConn
A lot of people will point to this season’s game between Illinois and UConn in November as the sole source of data necessary, and a lot of people will point to it as completely irrelevant. To be certain, both teams have changed lineups and strategies since, and thank Christ this
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2026 Final Four Preview: Michigan vs. Arizona
Titan versus titan is still pretty unique. In the history of Ken Pomeroy’s website, there have been 21 1 vs. 2 battles over the last three decades (not counting the Michigan/Duke game from February, which this post was about): It’s official. We’ll be adding a 20th entry to this
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Scout Team: Final Four Preview
We’re down to four teams in contention to raise the trophy in Indianapolis next week. The Scout Team guys get you ready for two monster matchups Saturday night with an X&O preview of both games. In the first matchup, they look at why Illinois has improved defensively, things that
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TULSA vs AUBURN (Hinkle Fieldhouse)

Auburn has more or less run roughshod over the tournament since needing a half or so to find their footing zone offense against South Alabama, scoring at 1.26 PPP and generally winning every game with ease despite some late game issues against Seattle and Nevada, and despite opponents shooting 42% from 3 against them. Filip Jovic has been an unexpected terror at the rim, while Key Hall dominated Illinois State in isolation in the semis, in what was essentially a road game for the Tigers. The two days off helps Elyjah Freeman as well, who has been dealing with a knee injury and was limited Thursday night.

Tulsa meanwhile got here by drilling 12 triples to New Mexico's 7 in the other semifinal, essentially the only difference in the game, negating an +10 FG attempt advantage for the Lobos. Tulsa is a PNR/drive and kick heavy offense who can spread the floor with shooters at basically every position out of their PNRs and handoffs. They don't really want to play the isolation heavy game Auburn prefers on both ends with Key Hall and typically switching 1-5, and that's going to be the crux of this game. Tulsa wants to spread the floor and move the ball around the perimeter, Auburn wants to exploit individual matchups and win off the dribble and at the rim. Auburn has won the rim battle in every game this tournament, while Tulsa has been outscored at the rim overall in the NIT, but is +21 from the 3PT line.

Tulsa is the first offense Auburn has seen this tournament that can effectively beat their switch (and giving Tulsa 11 open catch and shoots like the Tigers' defense has averaged over the past 3 games isn't likely to end well for Auburn), but the Tigers can still effectively leverage their athleticism at the rim and in individual matchups against this Tulsa defense. I think Auburn wins, but probably a slight lean to Tulsa on the spread because they're going to have a shooter's chance in this title game.

THE CROWN SEMIS (Vegas)

  • An old Big 12 rivalry renewal kicks off The Crown semis, and Porter Moser's Oklahoma teams rarely fared well against Scott Drew's Baylor teams in their Big 12 head to heads, with the Sooners 1-5 in those games. Oklahoma took awhile to wake up offensively against Colorado after the long lay off, and Moser is clearly interested in seeing what he has for next season with Kuol Atak, who played a season high 27 minutes, and wasn't shy about jacking it from three in those minutes, going 4-11 from beyond the arc. Baylor meanwhile had to plod their way through 52 zone offense possessions against Minnesota, a difficult task after 3+ weeks off, and were fortunate on the other end that the Gophers couldn't hit a jump shot, going 3-20 on catch and shoots. Totally different offensive and defensive scout for the Bears, as Oklahoma isn't likely to zone at all defensively and plays extremely heavily on the ball (91st percentile ball screen rate with a 90th percentile efficiency rating), whereas Minnesota plays completely through motion and heavy off-ball screening. Defending off the ball however played into Baylor's hands, as they're a 93rd percentile off-ball screen rate defense in terms of efficiency, but a brutal 2nd percentile on a 66th percentile rate (per Synergy data) defending in ball screens, which is all OU does offensively with Nijel Pack and Xzayvier Brown.
  • Jump shooting has been an issue for everyone at MGM, with 3PT shooting at a brutal 22% after the first round of games. Creighton and West Virginia can both be a little jump shot reliant (and WV was horrific in that regard against Stanford, and shouldn't even be here if the Cardinal didn't botch fouling up 3), but Creighton's two man PNR offense between Graves and Green shredded Rutgers. WV however grades out as a 99th percentile overall PNR defense, but did start to get completely broken down by Ebuka Okorie in the second half of their OT win over Stanford. Creighton's drop coverage did give up a lot of ball screen space for Tariq Francis and Jamichael Davis, something Honor Huff can exploit, but this feels like a game where Creighton has slightly more offensive recourse if the jump shooting continues to be problematic in this arena, even without Austin Swartz. I think the Greg McDermott retirement run continues into the finals.