Key Returners:

Mikey Lewis, Paulius Murauskas, Harry Wessels

Key Newcomers:

Tony Duckett, Dillan Shaw, Mantas Juzenas, Trent MacLean

Key Losses:

Mitchell Saxen, Augustas Marciulionis, Luke Barrett

Roster:

Reasons for Optimism:

After that infamous “down” COVID stained season in 2020-21, Randy Bennett fielded a top-25 KenPom ranked team four years running. He’s won 32 of his last 34 conference games over the last two seasons, and is 4-2 against Gonzaga, who bullied the men of Moraga for decades at the top of the WCC totem pole.

No need to sugarcoat it. There are roster question marks galore this season but any bullish projection on the Gaels starts with Bennett and his razor sharp staff (Joe Rahon and Mickey McConnell remain Bennett’s top consiglieres). Ironically, their core recipe for success, especially lately, is quite simple: size matters. 

"We like to play big. If you get in the NCAA tournament, there's just size, it starts showing up. I've been doing it long enough. We've been to that point of the NCAA tournament enough times that I think you need to be big, so we try to play that way and so that affects how we have to defend," Bennett told Ken Cross this summer

I love that subtle implication of “size dictates scheme” - not the other way around. In other words, size is a non-negotiable. From there, Bennett puts the onus on him and the staff to devise a scheme around that. 

The key principle engraved here is eliminating the 3-point shot entirely, which naturally funnels opponents into the teeth of the defense, where a forest of limbs awaits. It’s rare to see the Gaels scrambled in rotation, and opponents are constantly confused as to how to score efficiently against them.

Last season, there was a consistent theme in how opponents attacked Saint Mary's. Per Synergy, no defense faced more pick-n-roll action than the Gaels did last season - at least on a possession ending basis. Granted, there are a few pick-n-roll dominant offenses in the WCC but Saint Mary’s opponents were hellbent on trying to ball screen their bigs to death. 

On a relative basis, opponents had ~some~ success in this strategy but it was also the only way to score efficiently against this defense. As the situational chart below show, you can’t score on them playing iso hero ball (they contest so well with their length) and forget about scoring on the block.

Losing Mitchell Saxen matters, obviously, but when it comes to interior wall-up defense, I’ll go to war for Harry Wessels any day of the week. We’ll see how he fairs in pick-n-roll defense in a larger workload this season but Wessels seems capably agile at his size.

Yes, Wessels' offensive coordination could use a bit more polish but he's the incumbent I’m betting on a major development leap this year (perhaps stubbornly so). Historically, Bennett’s international prospects usually take time to bake, with no better example than the reigning 2x WCC Player of the Year Augustas Marciulionis. At minimum, Wessels will serve as a towering warden at the rim and anchor what could be another top-25 defensive unit.

Expect a time share of sorts between Wessels and fellow 7-foot giant Andrew McKeever, who actually played ahead of Wessels at times last year and carries considerably higher offensive upside. Given Jazz Gardner is expected to redshirt, Wessels and McKeever are critical to fortifying the lane on both ends this year.

The Wessels / McKeever tandem enable Paulius Murauskas to own his domain at the 4. Murasuskas isn’t overly versatile positionally but he’s a perfect 4-man, especially on offense, where he can score in a myriad of ways: post ups, face ups and short / mid post drives. His lack of consistency was maddening for Gaels’ fans last year but that should only improve with time. I’d also bet he shoots better than 29% from three this season, but perhaps that’s wishful thinking. He struggled facing premier size and athleticism but again, last season was his first real collegiate campaign as a full time contributor so I’m reserving any firm judgment on this narrative.

Causes for Concern:

We’ll get to the point guard situation at the end but there’s a litany of unknowns on this year’s roster. First off, this team feels young. I can’t remember the last time a true freshman started for Bennett, and there are multiple rookies who figure to be in the top-8 or top-9 of the rotation.

Dillan Shaw, a quasi 6-7 point forward who can score and playmake from the wing, is the highest rated of the inbound recruits. Depending on which guard combinations Bennett utilizes this year, Shaw could be a key lower usage connector piece right away. He's a butter smooth, supersized wing who can handle and shoot with ease. Plus, a rapidly developing frame - he reportedly has a 7-0 wingspan - should translate defensively.

Trent MacLean is the second heralded 4-star pickup of the cycle. He was originally inked to play at West Virginia for Darian DeVries, but MacLean opted to stay on the West Coast after DeVries took the IU gig. He looks like a vintage Saint Mary’s prototype: a sharpshooting, versatile 6-9 forward. For comparison, Shaw is more perimeter-y than MacClean. 

FIBA U20 breakout star Mantas Juzenas might be the best of the rookie crop. The 19-year old went nuclear this summer for Lithuania's U20 EuroBasket squad, turning many heads that he could be an instant impact piece for the Gaels. His ability to bang shots off screens and off the dribble could turn him into a weapon for Bennett this season (plus, his game seems to complement Shaw nicely at the 3). 

It’s probably foolish to gloss over the returning redshirts, especially former 4-star prospect Liam Campbell, but this season will largely come down to the 1-2 punch of Mikey Lewis and Tony Duckett (Bennett rarely dips deep into his bench, especially in big games). I'd be more bullish on Campbell's impact if he profiled as a primary facilitator, rather than 2-guard, and his talents feel semi-redundant with Lewis and now Juzenas (assuming he's as good as advertised).

Lewis was the WCC’s most prolific ‘microwave man’ off the pine last year. His outside shooting is a known commodity now, but a rapid rise in the pecking order demands more consistency and a more dynamic offensive arsenal. As some skeptics are quick to call out, projecting Lewis to be a key creator is a bit of a stretch from what he’s shown thus far. Last season, his buckets were largely set up by his teammates.

Per the chart below, only big Harry was fed via assist more often than Lewis, who scored 71% of his buckets off an assist (see second column from right). For comparison, only 39% of Jordan Ross' makes were assisted on:

Non-Gael fans might confuse Lewis and Ross, but remember that Lewis is effectively a year behind Ross in his development arc. Just look at Ross’ year 1 to year 2 statistical profile evolution, per KenPom, below. It’s entirely imaginable that Bennett harnesses a similar leap from Lewis this season, akin to the leap Ross took last year (especially in conference play).

The million dollar question still remains, ‘who’s running the show’? 

The prevailing wisdom is that Duckett, the surging sophomore talent from San Diego, is the answer, but even Bennett recognizes that playmaker is not his true MO. Duckett came out of high school as a high octane scoring guard, but the staff believes he can be molded into an on-ball creator and facilitator. His tape is easy to fall in love with - he’s an effortless, long-armed midrange shotmaker - but anointing him a starring role on a fringe top-50 team does feel like a stretch after an inefficient rookie campaign in SoCal, regardless of how the marriage with Lewis pans out. As a failsafe, Joshua Dent is still in the mix, in case Bennett wants to stick with a traditional pass-first point guard, but the upside will mainly come from Lewis and Duckett at the 1 and 2.

Bottom Line:

The Gaels are considerably younger and less proven this year, and are no longer steered by a steady hand at point guard. The counterpoint is that this team could be deeper, as Bennett is slowly stocking the cupboard with legitimate 4-star talent year in and year out at a rate we’ve not seen under his tenure.

My gut tells me this team is a year away from being REALLY good but I’d be shocked if the Gaels weren’t at least in the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation this season - albeit, with far less margin for error than the last four tournament teams.