The First Four begins tonight, plus we have NIT action. Let's take a look...

FIRST FOUR (Dayton)

11 NC STATE vs 11 TEXAS

A Maui rematch the committee claims they couldn't avoid, but I don't understand why they didn't just swap NC State for SMU. Regardless, neither team played a bit of defense in that game, which when paired with Maui rims created a 102-97 final. Texas shot an insane 16-32 from 3 in that game, and completely depantsed NC State's switch, something their ball screen and iso hunting offense can do again with their big on ball wings, especially Dailyn Swain, who is the best player in this game. NC State meanwhile generally doesn't prefer to see drop coverage, which is all Texas does with Matas Vokietaitis, as it eliminates their elite catch and shoot offense and forces Quadir Copeland into a scoring role. He did go for a super efficient 28 points, but the Pack also posted one of their lowest catch and shoot rates of the season (2nd lowest of OOC season). NC State's switch has been so poor that we've seen Will Wade try out a horrific zone down the stretch. I don't take too much away from that Maui game into present day, but I do think both teams can't really defend each other, and I will note the Pack actually outscored Texas 47-19 at the rim and attempted 12 more field goals overall- just some aberrational shooting from Texas, but again, 13 of those 3PTAs were uncontested

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not even Chaminade allowed a higher rate in that tournament. Ultimately however, I think the Pack's ball screen offense through Copeland (though not their preferred modus operandi)

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is more sustainable against a 7th percentile ball screen defense than Texas going berserk from 3 again.

16 HOWARD vs 16 UMBC (Dayton)

Michigan gets the winner of Howard and UMBC, two teams who actually played last season. UMBC destroyed the Bison, scoring 1.37 PPP on 12-24 3PT shooting, but Howard actually led with 9 minutes remaining before ultimately being outscored by 20 in the final 8 minutes. Interestingly Howard didn't use their zone pressure at all that game, which they use at a 93rd percentile rate, which they use to force a top 10 turnover rate nationally and a 93rd percentile transition rate. UMBC however has veteran guards who turned the ball over at the lowest rate in the AmEast and allowed just a 3rd percentile transition rate defensively. Howard in the halfcourt is just a series of quick hitting back cuts to the rim in a bizarro Princeton offense. UMBC doesn't foul, they rebound well defensively (since Tanchyn became a starter, the Retrievers are the 15th best rebounding team in the country), don't turn the ball over, and deny transition. These are all areas the Howard offense typically thrives in. Schematically strongly lean UMBC, but it seems fairly routine to see the more physical team win these 16 seed play-ins.

NIT FIRST ROUND

  • George Mason has certainly seen a hub and spoke style offense in A10 play against St. Louis, who they limited to .90 PPP just a week and a half ago, the Billikens' second least efficient offensive game of the year. The problem is that Robbie Avila, the hub in the Schertz system, was limited to 12 minutes with a plantar fasciitis flare up. Liberty plays a very similar but dramatically slower system, with spacing and movement around Zach Cleveland at the hub, but Cleveland will actually beat you more out of the ball screen mismatch whereas Avila is handoff hub. Liberty doesn't deal well with physicality and athleticism, and I'm sure Mason will be pounding Riley Allenspach post ups after Missouri State just bounced Liberty from the CUSA tournament with 27 post points, all from Human Bowling Ball Michael Osei-Bonsu, who is shaped like a Dick Tracy villain and went 14-16 from the field. Liberty typically defends the post with 6'5 JJ Harper, which is a severe mismatch.
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  • Sunny Wicks is apparently extremely excited to have his Wyoming team in the NIT field, while Wichita State is fresh off a Sunday championship loss in the AAC finals.

Two extremely PNR reliant offenses, but Wichita State switches 1-5 while the Pokes grade out in just the 8th percentile in overall PNR defensive efficiency rating, per Synergy data. Pokes are unsurprisingly 4-9 ATS away from Laramie's altitude, while the Shockers are 12-4 with a 5 point cover margin at the Roundhouse.

  • Yale at least gets to host UNCW instead of traveling to the elite Trask atmosphere, as it would be extremely difficult to get off the mat after they blew that Ivy title game against Penn Sunday (I'm not even a big "foul up 3" guy, it's far more nuanced than screaming ALWAYS FOUL UP 3, but you have to foul the 6'9 shooter who was torching you all game when he's dribbling the ball up court for 5 seconds). Yale hasn't seen a mega post bruiser like Pat Wessler, with the closest comp being Columbia's size, which they struggled with. Yale's biggest issue defensively is against the ball screen (7th percentile) and Siddle really went to Madison Durr ball screens for the first time all year against Campbell. I would expect he sees similar volume in that regard tonight.
  • Just polar opposites in Stillwater, with Oklahoma State a 92nd percentile transition offense that plays heavily through isolation shotmakers, while Davidson is a deliberate motion offense that rarely plays on the ball. Davidson allows just a 1st percentile transition rate defensively, and while there might be some initial ugliness from the Cowboy offense in that regard, Davidson can't defend OSU's speed on the ball. Look for some 1-3-1 from McKillop, with OSU having not seen much zone this season. One of those wildly disparate schematic battles we tend to see in the NIT. UPDATE: Lots of Anthony Roy availability rumors floating around. Check those availability reports people.
  • Keon Thompson owns the highest ball screen rate in the country, and Tylen Riley isn't far behind for Tulsa. Both play drop coverage which exposes them to elite ball screen creators, and SFA doesn't see many efficient on-ball guys in the SLC. The Jacks do however have the superior rim protection against rim and 3 heavy Tulsa.
  • Seattle has an elite rim defense for a midmajor outfit, but St. Thomas' entire motion based offense is predicated on spacing their frontcourt away from the rim and making room for Nolan Minessale isos and backdowns. Minessale however will run into the elite size and defense of Will Heimbrodt, who allows just .54 PPP in isolation. This is such a great matchup because the Tommies roll out an elite motion scheme vs an elite defensive scheme with uncommon size for a midmajor. Seattle's offense here probably can't fully exploit the Tommies' defense, as they were the least efficient offense in the WCC. These are both fringe top 100 teams, and Seattle's defense performed as a top 20 unit in 8 games vs top 100 competition. The Tommies only had a 2 game sample vs top 1oo teams, and struggled offensively in both.
  • Iso reliant with little to no ball movement, Auburn was surprisingly an 83rd percentile zone offense in a relatively high sample size, but we'll see if that lasts against an entire zone game from South Alabama. Every year there are always consensus "this team has no interest in playing in the NIT" targets and Auburn has certainly been one of those speculative teams- but rarely does that actually come to fruition. That said, I'm personally having a hard time imagining Keyshawn Hall is an eager participant for tonight's game. I'm sure Richie Riley and the Eagles are eager to get another crack at a big brother tonight.
  • UNLV was the best 3PT offense in the MWC, but that was totally based on DGL's incredible volume- in short, there's a lot of dork targets for UC Irvine tonight. UNLV was unbelievably inefficient at home against a similar defensive scheme from New Mexico that shut the water off on their 90th percentile rim rate (Tyrin Jones did get hurt that game). Josh Pastner has incredible enthusiasm for rebuilding this program, so I'm sure he's treating this NIT like it's the Super Bowl (and UCI is another team in the "quick turnaround off gutting title game loss" boat), but a tough schematic matchup for the Rebs. Eaters were 12-4 ATS at Bren this year.